2014 Record: 3-13, last in AFC West

Current +/- wins per Bovada: 5.5

Overall

The days of “Just Win Baby” are a faded memory for this once-proud franchise. Twelve straight non-winning seasons and the lowest win percentage of any team over that period have made the Raiders a running punchline. Yet there is a tangible optimism that the tide is finally turning.

Sacking coach Dennis Allen and his staff was a necessary move. Replacing him with Jack Del Rio, an experienced coach who will command and demand respect, is a positive move even though much of what went wrong under Allen was beyond his control.

More importantly, the talent level is finally rising. Derek Carr is a promising young quarterback, and he has some intriguing weapons to work with. The starters on both sides of the ball are solid enough units to compete with most teams on most weeks.

There are still major issues, however. The lingering question of a potential move back to Los Angeles clouds the sky. Years of ponderous draft picks and free agency decisions have left this a very thin roster at almost every position. The culture of losing is quite difficult to break. There are better days ahead with this young core, but they might not see the fruits borne right away. 

Five Questions

1. What impact does the new coaching staff make?

Jack Del Rio brings a much different presence to the Oakland sidelines than predecessor Dennis Allen. Del Rio has a pretty successful track record from his Jacksonville days, understanding how to operate with lesser resources in a small market with little recent tradition of winning. While few would ever accuse Del Rio of being a great coach, he does command respect from players and offers a more seasoned presence. Allen was well-liked but in over his head far too often as a rookie coach.

One of the first differences players will notice is a laser focus on attention to detail. Del Rio is a stickler for doing things right and repeating them until done right without thinking. It can get old but it will be a harsh wake-up call for too many players who kept repeating mistakes under Allen. The Raiders, under Del Rio’s directive, are changing the practice fields and doing other things which emulate more successful franchises instead of clinging to the legacy of the silver & black glory days of the 70s and 80s. What worked for Al Davis, Tom Flores and that era just doesn’t apply to the modern NFL, and it finally appears Raiders management is willing to make those steps forward.

The coordinators are just as important. Offensive Coordinator Bill Musgrave has a long history of working with quarterbacks, including a year in Oakland leading Jeff George (remember him?) to the best year of his career. He coaxed a strong campaign out of Mark Sanchez last year, and has produced solid results with mediocre--at best--QBs many times. He can help Derek Carr’s development, and that’s the ultimate key to Oakland escaping the losing doldrums. As a Plan B, Musgrave did coach new backup Christian Ponder to the best results of his largely underwhelming career in Minnesota.

Defensive Coordinator Ken Norton Jr. has to impress right away as a rookie coordinator. The Raiders finished dead last in points allowed and sacks, a unit which lacked positional discipline and symbiotic coordination. Oakland’s defense often looked like 10 guys who had never seen each other before and stud rookie Khalil Mack trying desperately to tie it all together.

Keeping a moderately talented group organized and uniform will be a challenge, but if Norton is even partially successful the defense should bounce out of the bottom 10 in both points and sacks. The former 49ers legend comes over from Seattle, where the hyper-aggressive defense often bamboozled opposing offenses with constant pressure and exceptional toughness. The talent level here isn’t near that level, but there are several intriguing pieces for Norton to work with in Oakland.

2. How much will the pass defense improve?

One of Norton’s biggest challenges is salvaging what has been a brutal pass defense. They have struggled with both sides of the old football axiom “Pressure = pick, Cover = sack”. Being 30th in sack percentage and 30th in takeaways is a chicken/egg situation where both are well past expiration dates.

Khalil Mack is the key to the defense. Last year’s No. 5 overall pick played well as a rookie, but he bagged just four sacks. Advocates will point to his 40+ QB pressures, but if nobody else can clean those up and he’s not finishing them, it’s frequently doing more harm than good when facing quality QBs. Mack must double his sack total.

Who can help clean up, or generate pressure on their own? Justin Tuck is now 32 and he’s still the best bet. He managed five sacks a year ago, which amazingly led the team. The former Giants’ star remains an impact run defender and can bully tackles who expose their chests, but he’s not a pressure progenitor. Last year’s counterpart Antonio Smith was better at creating, but Ninja is no longer in Oakland.

Rookie Mario Edwards figures to take over the other starting end spot. If the Edwards who helped lead Florida State to the national title in 2013 is the one Oakland gets, the guy who destroyed Auburn’s gimmicky offense and consistently wreaked havoc with leverage and quickness, this defense is going to be a lot better right away. If they’re getting the 2014 version, an overweight and sluggish shadow of the ’13 player, they wasted yet another draft pick. Edwards was outstanding against a bad Virginia team and largely awful against everyone else. I respect the gamble here, and early indications are Edwards is in shape and focused.

Tackles Justin Ellis and Dan Williams are not pass rushers, though Williams will upgrade the interior run defense in his first year after coming over from Arizona. Outside backer Sio Moore has some blitzing ability but is best used judiciously in that role. It’s up to Mack and the ends.

On the back end, Oakland has a cadre of young corners with some ability but just as many questions. Travis Carrie flashed in his rookie season out of Ohio University. He’s big and speedy and tackles well. He also guesses too much and has a long history of missing time with various injuries, including an ankle last year. D.J. Hayden also offers great athleticism and a real savvy for playing the ball in the air. Like Carrie, he’s had health issues. In fact, both have had open heart surgery, which has to be a first for any CB tandem in NFL history. Hayden really struggled with double moves and quickness outside. Still, Carrie and Hayden could be an adequate duo if the pass rush in front improves.

In Keith McGill, Neiko Thorpe, Chimdi Chekwa and Taiwan Jones, there is an impressive group of athletes trying to become solid NFL corners. McGill is long and physical but has the turn radius of a 1982 Lincoln. He figures to be the nickel back, kicking Carrie inside. Young safeties Brandian Ross and Jonathan Dowling also have flashed moments of competence; at times in 2014 Ross was the glue of the secondary. Rookie Tevin McDonald is smaller than his brother T.J., a good starting safety for the Rams, but he has potential as a coverage specialist. The Raiders sorely need one of these depth players to rise up with an unexpected strong season. Those sorts of things do happen frequently in the NFL, though those blessings have largely avoided Oakland in recent years. Maybe this is the year. 

3. Can the upgraded offensive weapons produce?

In taking Alabama wideout Amari Cooper with the fourth overall pick, Oakland made a statement they are serious about upgrading the offensive potency. Doubling down with a lithe TE in Clive Walford in the third round, signing Michael Crabtree and picking up RBs Trent Richardson and Roy Helu add even more oomph to an offense where the proper onomatopoetic term has been “oof”.

Cooper and Crabtree will be the starting wideouts, and they represent a significant upgrade over James Jones and Andre Holmes. How much of an upgrade? Holmes started 10 games last year. He remains on the roster now but is no safe bet to even make the final 53-man roster.

Crabtree has experience across the Bay in being a No. 1 wideout. A former first-round pick (in 2009), he never really emerged as a dominant or dynamic weapon; he has just one 1,000 yard campaign and his career 12.5 yards per catch is more Harry Douglas or Doug Baldwin than A.J. Green or Antonio Brown.

I expect Cooper to lead the Raiders in receiving yardage, though Crabtree might catch more passes. People who doubt Cooper’s long speed or playmaking flair are applying a bias (intentional or subliminal) against Alabama’s offense, which is often stodgy and has admittedly produced some terribly overrated NFL prospects. Cooper is not one of those. He’s a good pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year and could post 70 catches for 1100 yards as a rookie.

With two legit outside weapons, the tight ends should have a lot of room to operate over the middle. Carr loves using the middle of the field, with 261 of his 599 targeted attempts coming between the hashes (thanks PFF!). Mychal Rivera showed a lot of receiving ability as a rookie, capable of creating space for himself and plucking the ball away from his body. He can’t block at all, but Oakland needs him for his receiving work over the middle. Adding Walford, a giant target with sneaky speed who can actually block as well, pushes Rivera more into the full-time flex TE role where he belongs. Walford might only catch 15-25 balls, but his presence augments every other receiver. His blocking, which isn’t always technically pretty but proved consistently effective at Miami, can only help the rushing attack.

I have very low expectations for Richardson. He lacks vision and acceleration, but more to the point he doesn’t run with any confidence. That’s not true of the other two backs, however. Latavius Murray rushes with power and swagger, and he has real burst once he gets past the first tackler. As long as he stays healthy, he’s going to produce. Helu is a good receiver who operates comfortably in space, a nice complement. If Richardson can rebrand himself as a short-yardage sledgehammer, the Raiders have themselves a diverse, deep backfield.

4. Will the love for Derek Carr be rewarded?

Desperate Oakland fans, and there are no other kind, have rallied furiously behind Carr as The Man at quarterback. In his rookie season, Carr showed off the strong arm and leadership presence which fosters such encouraging thoughts.

Alas, the results were largely terrible. Carr threw too many bad INTs and often misfired on third downs, unable to sustain drives. Only fellow rookie Blake Bortles in Jacksonville graded out worse than Carr per Pro Football Focus, and there are some guys above him (Hoyer, Davis, Cousins) who should never see an NFL field again.

All of the pre-draft knocks on Carr were still evident. He doesn’t throw across the field well. He doesn’t read safeties or linebackers acceptably. In the face of pressure he retreats and chucks far too often, with broken mechanics and panicked vision. His 58% completion rate needs to uptick, and he must improve on 3rd down and less than 10 yards to go, a major hole in his rookie game. There were too many times where Carr appeared to not trust his eyes and the half-count delay ruined the play.

Carr will improve in his second season. The line in front of him, which did a solid job keeping him upright last year (5th in sack percentage), upgraded at center with Rodney Hudson. Adding Cooper, Walford and the new RBs should help the diversity of attack and playmaking potential. It’s on Carr to galvanize the offense around him and take a big step forward under Musgrave. If he’s a bottom-feeding producer once again, all the positive vibes and momentum is stymied. 

5. Can the turnover margin turn around?

The Raiders finished dead last in turnover margin in 2014 with a -15 differential. They finished 27^th in 2013 at -9. In fact, Oakland has had a positive turnover differential just once since 2002, the worst in the NFL. That’s no small reason why the team hasn’t made the playoffs since losing the Super Bowl after that season, a game where they notched a -4 turnover margin to help set the stage for the precipitous decline.

Being so consistently in the red is the result of a defense which cannot create takeaways and an offense too careless with the ball. Fixing one or the other needs to be a point of impact for Del Rio.

The better bet is for this defense to create more. With Mack providing pressure and better ballhawking in the secondary, Oakland has the potential to force more than the 14 turnovers of a year ago. Having Charles Woodson’s influence can only help all the youngsters on the back end, as the future Hall of Famer is one of the most proficient thieves in NFL history. Newcomer at safety Nate Allen, as well as guys like Carrie and Thorpe, can benefit from his tutelage, while Woodson himself is still good for a handful even though he’s at the very end of the line.

Mack and his fellow linebackers should be able to jar a few fumbles free and pick of a handful of passes too. Curtis Lofton in the middle can only be an upgrade over Miles Burris, though he might be the worst cover backer in the league over the last few years in Atlanta and New Orleans. Keep an eye on 5th rounder Neiron Ball, a very fluid athlete out of Florida who showed some blitzing and coverage ability for the Gators. Fellow rookie Ben Heeney was a tackle machine for Kansas, though he’s undersized and is an east/west player instead of a downhill attacker.

The goal for these Raiders should be to force at least 24 takeaways, or 1.5 per game. If they can hit that attainable mark, the offense will be under less pressure to force the action and give the ball back so frequently. One positive harbinger is opponent fumble recovery percentage, a historically volatile and inconsistent rate. Last year the Raiders ranked 28th by recovering just 42% of all fumbles in their games. Expect a correction back towards the mean, which is 50%. A turnover ratio of 0 or better will net this team at least double last year’s three wins.

Forecast: Raiders fans finally have real reason for optimism after years of false promise. There is legitimate young talent at several spots on the roster. Moreover, the new management regime should help congeal that talent and focus them into a tighter overall unit.

Don’t go buying those playoff tickets just yet, Raiders fans. There is still a long way to traverse and progress before this team sniffs the postseason. Yet it’s very realistic for this team to double last year’s 3 wins. The schedule opens nicely, with home dates against Baltimore and Cincinnati followed by winnable road games in Chicago and Cleveland. If they can break out of the gate with a 2-2 or even 3-1 record, there’s a chance for an 8-8 year and avoiding last place in the AFC West.

I expect Carr to improve with the upgraded weapons. I expect Cooper to be a strong Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate. I expect Mack to be a top-5 Defensive Player of the Year finisher. I expect fewer mistakes and better accountability. This is a team pointing in the right direction, though they might not accrue the wins to really show it. Oakland finishes 6-10.