2014 Record: 5-11

Current +/- wins per Bovada: 7

Overall: The 2015 season marks a new era for the Chicago Bears. After two disappointing seasons, GM Phil Emery and head coach Marc Trestman were both sent packing.

New GM Ryan Pace and head coach John Fox face an impending rebuild with one of the youngest rosters in the league. Fox has a proven track record in both Carolina and Denver, while Pace played a big role in assembling a strong roster with the Saints over the last decade. They still have Jay Cutler at quarterback, and with RB Matt Forte and WR Alshon Jeffery there is some impressive potential with the offensive triplets. First-round pick Kevin White adds even more potential to the offense.

The defense will look quite a bit different. Chicago is switching to a 3-4 front fulltime after years of steadily declining results from the 4-3. Only Tim Jennings remains in the secondary from the end of the 2013 season, and the radical overhaul was necessary. The front 7 added a major upgrade in Pernell McPhee and will feature several heated camp battles to sort out the lineup. Steady Robbie Gould at kicker gives the Bears a chance in close games, though the rest of the special teams are a bigger question than they have been in a long time.

Five Questions

1. Will the switch to a 3-4 scheme help the defense?

The short answer is that it can’t possibly hurt what has been a defense on a stark and steady decline. The more in depth answer is that it’s likely to look a lot better in 2016 and beyond than it does in this transition year.

Here’s the primary issue: the 3-4 requires playing four linebackers. The Bears have one viable NFL starting LB, newcomer Pernell McPhee (more on him later). Perhaps Jared Allen and Willie Young, last year’s starting DEs, can transition to playing more off the ball and farther outside; both do have experience as Wide-9 rushers from a 2 pt. stance. Between the two of them the Bears will probably be okay at the other OLB spot opposite McPhee, and they give nice options for when they flex to a 4-man front. They’re certainly deep and experienced, and that can go a long way towards helping remedy a broken defense.

Inside backer…cue the ominous organ music. They’re going to try and turn Shea McClellin and Christian Jones into a starting combo. Inside backers in a 3-4 have to attack downhill between the tackles but also be aware enough to recognize the quick slant or TE release. Neither possesses any sort of the requisite skills to handle the job description. Both are stiff and lack range in coverage. Neither is stout at the point of attack, though Jones does have some ability to get off a block. Both are essentially backup outside 4-3 OLBs who will play as starting 3-4 ILBs. Mason Foster is in the mix as well, though his four years in Tampa Bay proved he’s overmatched as anything more than a nickel-package cover backer. He’s also never played in a 3-4.

The line should be okay. It could be pretty formidable if Lamarr Houston returns to form after his torn ACL, an injury suffered celebrating his first Bears sack…in Week 8. Houston can line up all over the formation, and that sort of versatility is invaluable when trying to figure out roles in a new defense with a lot of uncertainty. He’s a facilitator up front, a guy who can make the OLBs more productive while also being pretty stout versus the run. He and Jay Ratliff as the ends should be a tough task for opposing offenses. I know many see Houston projecting as a starting OLB but that’s a poor use of talent, as the cupboard at DE is absolutely barren behind those two while OLB is arguably the deepest spot on the team.

I’m cautiously optimistic about the young pairing of Ego Ferguson and Eddie Goldman as the interior anchors. Ferguson was asked to do too much as a rookie but still showed flashes against the run. Goldman had a lot of empty stat lines for Florida State last year but he can soak up blockers and make the occasional TFL. Vic Fangio is a smart Defensive Coordinator whom I trust will maximize their abilities, and DL coach Jay Rodgers is a budding coordinator with a strong developmental track record in Denver. The DL will not be the problem.

2. Will the offensive line hold up?

I’ll start this with a mea culpa: Kyle Long has become a much better player than I expected. He’s one of the better right guards in the league, and he’s also quickly emerged as the de facto leader of the offense. Long didn’t allow a sack last year per Pro Football Focus, and he consistently creates movement as a run blocker too. I never thought he would be more than an athletic curiosity but marginal starter coming out of Oregon. Kudos to you, Kyle Long, you have earned my respect and even made me a fan with your style of play and attitude.

The rest of the line is somewhere between serviceable and disastrous. Matt Slauson is a solid starter at left guard, though he’s returning from an injury-ravaged 2014. Slauson kicked butt as a run blocker in his first year in Chicago in 2013, and he’s a good schematic fit for Adam Gase’s offense. He and Long together are an above-average guard tandem. Newcomer Will Montgomery should be an upgrade over Roberto Garza, a steady veteran who played a year too long. Montgomery started a few games for this coaching staff in Denver last year and was serviceable in front of the increasingly immobile Peyton Manning. The interior line will not be the problem. There is even some depth with rookie Hroniss Grasu, a center by trade but versatile enough to be a very good sixth lineman. He needs to be, because if the trainwreck that is Vlad Ducasse ever sees the field Cutler might just walk right off in disgust.

Then there are the tackles. Insert flaming dumpster meme. Jermon Bushrod is arguably the worst left tackle in the NFL, yet he’s vastly superior to his right-side counterpart Jordan Mills. They surrendered over 100 combined QB pressures. In what has to be one of the biggest draft oversights, the Bears didn’t address the gaping hole at tackle until using a sixth round pick on TCU’s Tayo Fabuluje. He’s a massive human who was out of football for three years and drew red flags from many scouts for lacking passion and carrying about 40 pounds of bad weight. He could challenge Mills but that’s more about the current right tackle than anything positive for the rookie behemoth. If this team doesn’t add a competent veteran tackle before the season starts, the position will remain a major concern.

3. Can John Fox coax greatness from Jay Cutler?

Chicago is paying Jay Cutler $126 million to be the franchise quarterback the Bears have not had in decades. The early returns were promising, but the mercurial QB has been inconsistent at best for the last three years. With Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte all above-average talents at the skill positions surrounding him, Cutler put up the occasional great game but left a lot to be desired far more often than not.

Now Marshall is gone, replaced by first-rounder Kevin White. I’ll admit to not having a good fell for how this will work out. White had a phenomenal 2014 at West Virginia and brings to mind Larry Fitzgerald. He’s the best collegiate wideout with the ball in the air since…Alshon Jeffery. Yet I have reservations. He was a one-year wonder and didn’t create good separation against truly abysmal Big 12 secondaries. Cutler trusted Marshall to a fault in similar situations. Will he have that same confidence in the talented but unproven rookie?

Jeffery and Bennett make a very strong (literally) WR/TE package. Forte is outstanding out of the backfield as a receiver. White has some bust potential but belonged in the top 25 picks for good reason. It’s incumbent upon Cutler to get his act together and make it work with all those weapons. The coverage misreads, the forced throws into double coverage, the sullen and detached persona all must stop. All of those are issues with Cutler above the shoulders. He’s now 32 and has to learn yet another offense. While reports of him being unpopular in the locker room are grossly overblown, Cutler isn’t a dynamic leadership presence or encouraging figure that most good QBs are.

The arm is still great. Cutler has proven capable of sporadic awesomeness, even in last year’s lost season. Fox is a seasoned veteran coach who has taken Jake Delhomme and Peyton Manning to Super Bowls. Cutler should respect that. Fox is a very different presence than both Marc Trestman and Lovie Smith, and maybe the vulgarity and hotheadedness will reach the blasé Cutler. If Smokin’ Jay has the self-recognition to realize he’s got a chance to author a great third act to his career, Fox can help him climb back up the NFL quarterback pantheon. If not, he’s going to be the NFL version of Juwan Howard, an obscenely overcompensated average player too expensive to dump. Make no mistake, if it fails this year every finger will point squarely at #6. But if they make it to even 8-8, Cutler will be the primary reason for the success.

4. How much impact will the newcomers provide?

Signing OLB Pernell McPhee away from Baltimore is one of the smartest free agent moves any NFL team made this offseason. Most fans don’t know him all that well, but McPhee is a very effective all-around talent. The 26-year-old led all outside linebackers with 21 QB hits and amassed the second-highest grade from Pro Football Focus despite playing only about 60% of the Ravens’ snaps. He’s versatile enough to rush inside or outside, and McPhee is also very good at slamming tight ends as they try to release into routes. That’s something the Bears haven’t had since Lance Briggs’ heyday half a decade ago and it showed.

Adding veteran safety Antrell Rolle in place of hopeless Chris Conte can only help the secondary. Even though Conte graded out better last year at PFF (he was 63rd, Rolle 81st among 87 qualifying safeties) Rolle is a significant upgrade in coverage. He’s also more durable, and Bears fans got tired of seeing Conte missing a series or two almost every game with yet another malady. I’m bullish on fifth-round rookie Adrian Amos, whose game is similar to a younger Rolle in his prime, a hybrid safety/corner who can cover the slot but also stuff the run. With second-year player Brock Vereen also in the mix, the Bears finally have some young potential at a position which has been a cesspool for years.

Veteran corner Tracy Porter takes over the nickel position, and he’s also an upgrade. Porter is very hit/miss but his aggression with the ball in the air fits nicely. Assuming 2014 first-rounder Kyle Fuller can handle business replacing Charles Tillman outside and Jennings can bounce back from a down season, Chicago’s corner have a fighting chance in an NFC North loaded with potent passing attacks. Fuller started his rookie season with gusto but badly tailed off as teams figured out he bites on every fake. Porter has been guilty of that too, and perhaps his veteran mentorship will assist the promising youngster.

New linebackers Sam Acho and Mason Foster upgrade the depth at the position. Both are best served as situational backups, but if they keep Khaseem Greene and Cornelius Washington off the field, the Bears are better for it. If undrafted rookie Terry “Swamp Monster” Williams can keep his head on straight, the defensive tackle from East Carolina could be a real boon to the defensive line. He is the most naturally talented nose tackle on the roster, but he was suspended for various indiscretions three straight years in Greenville. The Bears wisely cut ties with similarly troubled Ray McDonald, who would have been a very good fit if he could have stopped getting arrested.

Offensively there aren’t many new additions. Slot receiver Eddie Royal caught 91 passes as a rookie in Denver with Jay Cutler as his quarterback, but he’s managed to top 60 catches just once since. Fortunately for Chicago, that was last year in San Diego and the team is quite optimistic he’ll make an excellent inside complement for Jeffery and White. Chicago hasn’t had a reliable slot receiver since, uh, hmmm, it’s been a long time. Even 40 catches for 500 yards and 4 TDs would represent a significant upgrade, and that’s well within Royal’s grasp.

Center Will Montgomery came over with Fox and Gase from Denver. As noted above, he will likely start at center. If not, he’s a better interior backup than anyone else on the roster and that versatility could foster a Kyle Long move to right tackle. Keep an eye on rookie RB Jeremy Langford, a hard-charging back who could earn the #2 job with a strong camp.

5. Is 2015 a new beginning or the rotting end?

Chicago has been a steady decline for the last few seasons. Many of the stalwarts of a strong core from the last decade--Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Peanut Tillman, Brandon Marshall, Devin Hester, Roberto Garza--are all gone. Several bad drafts, notably on the defensive side of the ball, have left this a woefully thin and undertalented team.

How the players handle that status will go a long way toward determining their ultimate 2015 fate. Coach Fox has his work cut out for him convincing the self-aware veterans they have a legitimate chance in what looks to be the NFC’s strongest division. Green Bay and Detroit are both playoff teams, while Minnesota is a rising young team. They haven’t beaten a team which made the playoffs since topping a Packers team led by Seneca Wallace in Week 9 of 2013. You have to go back to the 2013 opener for the penultimate one of those wins.

Guys like Jared Allen, Tim Jennings and really Forte and Cutler can all be forgiven for taking a longer view here. None of these guys, with the possible exception of Cutler, will be part of this team when it finally emerges from the overhaul and sniffs a playoff win again. While there is outward optimism now, it’s easy to see lame duck status creeping in after a couple of early losses.

Fox--and Cutler--have the chance to prove otherwise. Change can mean progress. If the team can rally around Fox and Cutler and catch a couple of early breaks, there is still enough offensive firepower for Chicago to compete. The new head coach has something to prove after being run out of Denver following a disastrous playoff loss. The quarterback has something to prove after being the source of virulent fan enmity, as much for his ridiculously lucrative contract as his sourpuss demeanor and penchant for throwing terrible INTs.

How the team responds to being a decided underdog, with a new coaching regime which has a clear grace period to take expected lumps in its first year, will be telling. Some teams rally around one another and respond with pleasant surprises. Others go through the motions and circle the drain. 

Forecast

The Marc Trestman/Phil Emery era came to a necessary end after a brutally uninspiring 2014. Now the Bears start anew with a veteran head coach in John Fox but a rookie GM in Ryan Pace. There are still several talented players sprinkled across the roster, but the holes (notably inside LB and OT) are as gaping as any team in the NFL.

Climbing out of last place in the NFC North will be a challenge. There are precious few players in the prime of their careers and a whole host either at the beginning or the end, a tough mix. In private conversations with a few Bears insiders this spring, I can’t express how low the expectations are from those who cover the team on a daily basis. That is a mixed blessing; fans won’t want to suffer through the losing when there is still some potent offensive firepower, yet the process of overhauling a badly fading roster has to happen.

That overhaul has begun, and better years do lie ahead. Unfortunately, this figures to be a very rocky year for the Soldier Field faithful. Cutler, Forte & Co. will fire on all cylinders a few times, and if those days coincide with a positive turnover differential and an effective pass rush the Bears can be dangerous. Expect that to happen a few times, but reaching seven wins seems far out of reach. Four of the first six games are against returning playoff teams, and a fifth is a road game against the Chiefs, a team many will pick to rise to that level this year. When I look at their schedule I fail to see any more than last year’s five wins, unless Cutler is a legit All Pro and the defense creates 28-plus turnovers. These Bears bottom out at 4-12 and secure a top 5 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft.