As we’re merely weeks away from training camps opening, there’s no better time to take a closer look at some burning questions for fantasy football. Today we analyze which rookie will be the most impactful for the 2015 season. Just to set the ground rules for the analysis, the primary emphasis will be placed on the numbers each player will post, with a player’s expected draft position in relation to value produced as a secondary factor. We’ll look at five candidates, not in any particular order.

Candidate 1:  Amari Cooper – WR, Oakland Raiders

Amari Cooper has received rave reviews (pun intended) for his performances in Raiders' camp. Cooper enters the NFL with very polished skills for a WR, with his route running abilities already deemed to be above average by NFL standards. So Cooper will be productive from the get-go. Certainly, views are mixed regarding Cooper’s quarterback, Derek Carr, so concerns exist. But, the vote here is that Carr will be help, and not hinder, Cooper’s rookie campaign. 

Verdict: Amari Cooper will certainly be a leading candidate for fantasy rookie of the year. You won’t need to wait for a long adjustment period for Cooper to post numbers, as he’s about as ready for the NFL as any WR prospect has been in recent years. Cooper is the odds on favorite to lead rookie WRs in fantasy points.

Candidate 2:  Kevin White – WR, Chicago Bears

The big WR debate entering into the NFL draft in April was Amari Cooper vs Kevin White. The Raiders went with Cooper, leaving White available for the Bears. Many within football viewed White as the higher upside/lower floor option when compared to Cooper. Whether White actually has more upside than Cooper remains for debate, but what most can agree on is that White needs more immediate work on the nuances of playing WR at the NFL level. We’re talking producing while lining up in different spots on the line of scrimmage, route running and blocking duties, among other skills.

Verdict: Kevin White looks more in store for a “start-slow first half, come-on-strong second half of the NFL season” type of year than a burst onto the scene type of season. Even some very talented WRs can struggle initially with the transition from college to NFL wide receiver. As White can’t match Cooper’s NFL readiness, White will likely put up useful numbers based on talent, but he won’t do enough to snag the top fantasy rookie title.

Candidate 3:  Todd Gurley – RB, St. Louis Rams 

Word leaked following the NFL draft that the Rams had Todd Gurley as the top overall player on their board. Gurley’s selection by the Rams surprised most everyone, as Tre Mason showed promise as their RB last season. But if Gurley truly has transcendent talent along the lines of Adrian Peterson, then the Rams made the right selection. For fantasy purposes, Gurley clearly has the biggest upside of the fantasy RBs, with three key issues standing in the way. The first, and certainly biggest issue is health. Gurley is recovering from a torn ACL, and how early into the season he’ll be able to handle a full workload remains to be seen. The second concern is how the workload will be divvyed up between Gurley and Mason. The Rams may elect to be cautious with Gurley this season. Finally, the Rams sport a subpar offensive line; Pro Football Focus ranked the Rams 31st overall in offensive line performance, with run blocking ranked at 28th. So these factors all need to be considered in Gurley’s case.

Verdict: Todd Gurley likely boasts the highest ceiling of the incoming rookies from a fantasy perspective. If everything goes perfectly, Gurley could be an RB1 this year. But much needs to go right – namely health from the start of the season. The reality is that we can’t fully judge Gurley’s rank on this list until we see what transpires in training camp.

Candidate 4:  Melvin Gordon – RB, San Diego Chargers

While Todd Gurley was viewed as the prize RB of this year’s draft class, Melvin Gordon is no slouch himself, as he’s a powerful runner with speed. In 2014, Gordon set the NCAA single game rushing record with 408 yards against Nebraska. Gordon also finds himself entering into a good situation with the Chargers. Gordon should take the bulk of the work on first and second downs, but will likely cede third down situations to Danny Woodhead. For the 2015 season, Gordon qualifies as the safest rookie RB, yet one with strong upside.

Verdict: Melvin Gordon fits well with the Chargers, and he enters an ideal situation with a balanced offense and strong QB. For Gordon to pull off finishing as the top fantasy rookie, he will likely need to force his way into the third down conversation as well. Gordon’s ceiling for this season veers more towards high end RB2 than RB1, but he’s certainly in the mix for the top finisher.

Candidate 5:  The Field

The four candidates mentioned above lead the charge for the top fantasy rookie for 2015. However, ignoring their rookie mates would be a huge mistake, as the crop of rookies entering the league this season bustles with talent. Other names to keep an eye on include Atlanta Falcons RB Tevin Coleman, Jacksonville Jaguars RB T.J. Yeldon, Miami Dolphins WR DeVante Parker and Philadelphia Eagles WR Nelson Agholor, among several others. With a deep and talented pool of rookies, the field throws its hat in the ring here as well.

Verdict: It would be no shock if someone from the field takes the mantle as the top fantasy performer this year. This is especially the case if you place extra value on where the player is selected in the draft in relation to his performance. That being said, with the four top candidates possessing special skills, I’d lean towards one of the top four as the ultimate rookie performer.

Conclusion

Having looked at the candidates, now it’s time to select this upcoming season’s top fantasy performer. With RBs being a safer selection than WRs due to 1) an easier adjustment from the college game to the NFL, and 2) more consistency in terms of touches, I see no reason to buck that trend in making the choice here. So, we’re looking at Todd Gurley versus Melvin Gordon for the top honors. The choice: Melvin Gordon.

I’d love to go with Gurley here, and I select Gordon with the caveat that my answer will change to Gurley IF he’s ready to go for the start of the season. But, the early indications are that Gurley won’t be at full strength until the season is well underway, although no one knows for sure at this moment. So there’s a bit of wait and see here, but based on the information we have as of today, my selection is Melvin Gordon as the top fantasy rookie for 2015.