RealGM Analysis
Running Backs
Tier 1: Adrian Peterson
Tier 1.5: Arian Foster
Tier 2: Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, Doug Martin
Tier 3: Ray Rice, CJ Spiller, LeSean McCoy, Trent Richardson, Alfred Morris
Tier 4: Steven Jackson, Matt Forte, Stevan Ridley, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew
Tier 5: Frank Gore, Darren McFadden, Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush, Lamar Miller, David Wilson, Montee Ball, DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews, Le’Veon Bell, Ahmad Bradshaw
Tier 6: Chris Ivory, Rashard Mendenhall, DeAngelo Williams, Mark Ingram, Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard, BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Tier 7: Shane Vereen, Vick Ballard, Andre Brown, Mark Ingram, Isaiah Pead, Mikel Leshoure, Ben Tate, Bryce Brown, Fred Jackson, Jonathan Franklin, Ryan Williams
Tier 8: Bernard Pierce, Darryl Richardson, Zac Stacy, Jonathan Stewart, Jacquizz Rodgers, Ronnie Hillman
* Players in bold are those players that I expect to significantly outperform their average draft position based on current ADP.
Analysis
After a bit of a hiatus in 2012, the running back position has once again thrust itself into the forefront as the key fantasy football position come draft time. Looking at how the draft board shakes out, the RBs in tiers 1 through 3 are considered ‘safe’, while the players in tiers 4 and 5 have potential for strong seasons but with more risk, and the players in tiers 6 through 8 generally have lower ceilings, but with upside as well. As for Arian Foster, he doesn’t quite belong with Adrian Peterson (no player does), but also belongs ahead of the trio in tier 2 – thus, the creation of tier 1.5.
So what’s the strategy with RBs? For starters, take one with your first pick. I would recommend selecting any of the running backs in tiers 1 through 3 before selecting Calvin Johnson, Aaron Rodgers or any other player at another position. You should aim for at least one stud RB (tiers 1-3). Afterwards, the best case scenario is to find a way to grab two RBs from the tier 4 through tier 5 group. Tier 5 especially has some intriguing first and second year players, but they come with risk, so best to have two guys from the tier 4-5 group to hedge your bets. Finally, grab two RBs from the tier 6 through 8 groups and see if you strike gold. Just like previous years, a few players will emerge from the lower tiers to make a strong impact, so take a shot with them as well. So in summary, grab 1) one with your top pick, 2) two within your top three picks, and 3) three within your top six selections.
Finally, a quick rapid-fire note as to why I think each player in bold has a good chance to outperform his ADP:
Stevan Ridley: Talented RB with star potential, and Patriots will need to rely on the run more with Brady’s pass catching weapons depleted.
Chris Johnson: Upgrades on OL, skills still there and new offensive coordinator should be an improvement. Hope I don’t regret this.
Darren Sproles: Part of a dynamic offense with great QB; his receiving skills will get you points each week. Underrated fantasy player.
Reggie Bush: Ditto that of Sproles. Bush will fit in nicely into the Lions’ offense. Also, Bush showed last season that he can handle a solid dose of carrying the rock.
Lamar Miller: Played well in limited role last season; Dolphins offense should be significantly improved, and Miller has every opportunity to be the featured back.
Ahmad Bradshaw: Solid 2012 season, underrated by the fantasy world – great chance to shine with Colts.
Mark Ingram: Part of dynamic offense along with Sproles; should see increase in carries and rumored to be in fantastic shape.
Jonathan Franklin: While Eddie Lacy was drafted first and will likely face same status in fantasy drafts, Franklin thought by many to be the better fit in the Packers' scheme.
Other Fantasy Previews:
Neema Hodjat is the fantasy sports expert for RealGM. He can be reached via email at nhodjat@gmail.com and followed on twitter at @NeemaHodjat.
