RealGM Analysis
2012 Record: 11-5 (12-6 including playoffs)
Point Differential+97
Turnover margin: +7
Sack Differential: -4
Offense
2012 Ranks
Rushing YPC: 22nd
Passer Rating: 1st
3rd Down: 20th
Scoring: 4th
QB: The Packers will always be a Super Bowl contender as long as #12 Aaron Rodgers is at the helm. Going into his 8th year, Rodgers has firmly established himself as one of the best, if not the best quarterback in the NFL. Rodgers was rewarded with the largest contract in the history of the NFL this offseason when he signed a seven-year, $130 million deal. The deal includes an unimaginable $54 million guaranteed. Rodgers had another extremely efficient season by throwing for almost 4,300 yards, 39 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. His 67.2 percent completion percentage was good enough for top-5 in the league, while his 259 yards rushing was good for 2nd best on the team.
Last season required Rodgers to have to adjust a bit to his usual down field passing. This was for a few reasons; first defenses decided to take away the deep ball by playing a lot of Cover-2. This forced Rodgers to have to throw it shorter and take what the defense was giving him. His YPA was 1.4 yards shorter in 2012 than in 2011, his MVP season. Rodgers' lack of big plays in the pass game was also caused by injuries to his wide receivers. Greg Jennings missed a total of eight games and Jordy Nelson missed four games. Both those guys can stretch the defense and threaten teams vertically.
There aren’t a lot of great things that can be said about Aaron Rodgers that haven’t already been said. He is going to be expected to continue to put up great numbers again and is also going to be expected to take another step in his leadership role. Rodgers is already a leader of the team but with the departures of Charles Woodson and Donald Driver more is going to fall on his shoulders.
Graham Harrell returns as the expected back up and again coaches have talked him up this off season. For two years in a row now we’ve heard he’s come in with a better grasp of the offense, improved arm strength, and better command of the huddle. Unfortunately, when Harrell was called upon in live action last season the former Texas Tech quarterback did his impression of Mark Sanchez by falling over himself and fumbling the ball inside the five-yard line. It was not a pretty moment. BJ Coleman, the former 7th round pick out of Chattanooga, will be entering his 2nd year and could challenge Harrell for the teams back up spot but it’s unlikely he does so this year. Look for Coleman to be put on the practice squad for another year and really push Harrell next season for the #2 job.
RB: It wouldn’t have been hard to guess that the Packers thought they were lacking at the running back position given how they drafted this year. In the 2nd round, they drafted 5’11 230lb running back Eddie Lacy from Alabama. Right after this pick you could almost hear the rest of the NFC cringe thinking how potent the Packers offense could be with a solid running game. Lacy was widely considered the best running back in college football last season when he led the Crimson Tide to a National Title running for over 1300 yards and 17 touchdowns. Given Lacy’s build, quick feet, agility, and his draft position he will more than likely be penciled in as the starter. Lacy isn’t without some concern though, he dropped late in the 2nd round because of durability issues. Unflattering reports of his weight in camp also raise questions.
The Packers weren’t done after drafting Lacy in the 2nd round. They later traded up in the 4th round to take Jonathan Franklin, running back from UCLA. Franklin is expected to come in and compete for reps with Lacy and the others but is almost certainly going to be the primary 3rd down back. Although Franklin has a slight build of 5’10 205lbs he showed all year and at the Senior Bowl in Mobile he is one of the better pass protecting running backs of the draft class. It is critical in the Packers pass first offense that the running back can protect Rodgers. Franklin isn’t without his own power and agility as a runner or pass catcher either. Franklin rushed for over 1700 yards and caught 33 passes for an additional 323 yards. He is a one cut type of runner, who exhibits good patience and can run behind his pads.
DuJuan Harris, the former used car salesman, is expected to make contributions this year as he is the returning start from last season. Harris impressed in his short time with the team running extremely hard into the playoffs. It was said, after the loss to the 49ers many players from that defense were calling him the real deal. Harris, listed at 5’8 203lbs, is short but thick and showed ability to hit the hole in a hurry and find cut back lanes. He didn’t have a full grasp of the playbook last year due to him being added to the roster late in the year but was expected to take a larger role going into this season until Lacy and Franklin were drafted. Harris will be starting the year recovering from surgery when doctors had to remove a cyst the size of a fist near his lung.
John Kuhn is still expected to serve his role of full back for the team. Kuhn is a fan favorite but really doesn’t offer much other than sound pass protection. Kuhn was an effective short yardage runner but that slowly faded as it became predictable when he was in the game. Kuhn is also set to make $2.5 million this year so if Lacy and Franklin can prove to be effective in pass pro and short yardage situations Kuhn could be a cap casualty.
The other running backs in camp are Alex Green, James Starks and UDFA Angelo Pease. Green will be taking first team reps in the start of camp because the Packers don’t like putting rookies or younger players in who don’t have a full grasp of the play book as the starter. He had his opportunity last year to take over starting duties but failed to impress. He was coming off an ACL injury and it really showed, as he didn’t show much explosiveness or balance. If a 3rd round pick wasn’t invested in him a few years ago it’s possible he would be competing for a job. It’s been a long time since James Starks memorable run in the playoffs of the 2010 season, since then he hasn’t done much but face injuries. He’s more brittle than a Faberge Egg. When healthy, he is a very tough runner who always seems to fall forward but with his durability concerns he very well could be the odd man out on the final roster. Angelo Pease, is an interesting rookie, he was used sparingly at Kansas State but impressed coach McCarthy so much during OTA’s he singled him out a few times. It’s unlikely he makes the 53 man roster but look for him to be put on the practice squad and called up in case injuries occur in the Packers backfield.
Bottom line is the Packers really gave a boost to their starting backfield by drafting two highly touted college running backs. The Packers' offense will still be run through Rodgers but look for a bit more balance and effective running this season. This will force defenses to respect the run and open things up for Rodgers. The team understands that in order to put games away and to win in tight situations you are going to need some semblance of a run game.
WR/TE: Oh my God, the Packers lost their #1 wide receiver in Greg Jennings and their all-time leading receiver Donald Driver, what are they going to do?- Said no smart Packer fan ever. The Packers still have one of the best receiving corps in the league, which consists of James Jones, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. James Jones has done a complete 180 as far his pass catching ability. Early in Jones’ career he was much maligned for his case of the dropsies. This past season he led the NFL for wide receivers catching 14 touchdowns, doubling his career high set the year before. He also set a career high in yards with 784 despite his YPC dropping 4.4 yards from the previous season. He is expected to resume his role as a starter on the outside opposite Jordy Nelson and continue to be a red zone threat with his ability to high point the ball and out jump defenders.
Jordy Nelson looks to regain his 2011/early 2012 form and bounce back from injuries that limited him to just 12 regular season games last year. In the first seven games of the season Nelson averaged 76 YPG and hauled in five touchdowns. His season never really got back on track after his ankle and hamstring injuries. Nelson, when healthy, is one of Rodgers' favorite targets. Nelson also saw a dip in his YPC of 3.4 yards; this is attributed to defenses taking away the deep ball as well as his injuries hampering him. He is very good after the catch and is widely underrated around the league. It’s not inconceivable that Nelson catches 70+ passes for 1200+ yards and 10+ td’s this year.
The up and coming stud of this offense and of the NFC is Randall Cobb. Cobb will just be turning 23 this year and already entering his 3rd year in the league. He was brought along slowly as a rookie but really had a breakout season last year. He filled in nicely for Jennings and Nelson when they were injured catching nearly 80% of the passes thrown his way. Cobb had five games where he caught every pass thrown his way, all of which were over four targets. Out of the six times he was targeted in the end zone he caught all 6 of them. It’s safe to say Cobb became Rodgers security blanket. Cobb was most effective out of the slot and that’s where he’s expected to play again this year. Rodgers predicted Cobb will catch over 100 balls this year and barring injury it’s hard to imagine him not coming close to that mark.
The other wide receivers in camp all have some question marks due mostly to inexperience. The 4th wide receiver is Jarret Boykin, second year man out of Virginia Tech. He got some playing time last year due to the injuries but only caught a total of five passes. Coaches and fellow teammates rave about Boykin and believe he is a good candidate to surprise people this year. Boykin went undrafted mainly because of a poor 40 yard dash time, but he more than makes up for it with crisp route running and phenomenal hands.
Jeremy Ross, Charles Johnson, Kevin Dorsey and Myles White will be battling it out for the 5th wide receiver spot with the possibility of one of them sticking as a 6th wide receiver if they can win the kick/punt return job. Ross is the favorite to win the job because of his year of experience in the system and the flashes he’s shown as a returner. Most people remember him from muffing the punt against the 49ers in the playoffs but before that he was averaging nearly 26 yards per punt return and 29 yards per kickoff return. Johnson will be considered the other favorite to make the 53 because of his unbelievable testing numbers. He ran 4.39 forty yard dash and had a vertical of 39.5 inches. He has the tools to develop into a player who could find himself a starting job down the line. Dorsey, a rookie from Maryland, also tested well but will have to overcome early injuries to make an impression. Don’t sleep on Myles White, his ability to climb the ladder and makes plays on the ball won’t go unnoticed as camp and pre-season games go on.
Jermichael Finley is an enigma. What was once all the potential in the world has turned into an overpaid, inconsistent headache. While Finley is still considered one of the most physically gifted TE’s in the league, he is set to make over $8 million this season, which is a ridiculous amount of money to a tight end who only caught two touchdowns all year. Finley improved as the season went on, and the Packers front office clearly still sees potential in the 26-year-old. Finley will be a free agent at the end of this year so look for him to be more focused and dedicated to improving his game, primarily catching the ball. Finley should see more targets this season due to the departures of Jennings and Driver, if he has the trust of Rodgers he could easily catch 65+ balls for 750+ yard and 8+ TD’s.
Coming back from a knee injury that sidelined him all of last season is Andrew Quarless. Quarless is another physically gifted TE at 6’4 252lbs, who will see his playing time increase with the departure of Tom Crabtree. Quarless is expected to take on the role of in line blocker but with the ability to also threaten defenses as a route runner. Quarless is tough after the catch and flashed early his rookie season when filling in for Finley.
Other tight ends competing for the 3rd spot are D.J. Williams who hasn’t done anything in 2 seasons once the pads get put on. Williams might have an advantage over the others because he has the ability to line up occasionally at full back. Ryan Taylor the 3rd year man out of North Carolina is primarily the special teams ace who really adds a fire to the unit. Practice squad member from last year Brandon Bostick and UDFA Jake Stonebrunner will also compete to stay on the team and will need to cement their role by standing out during special teams.
OL: Perception around the league that the Packers' offensive line is a huge weakness, but that’s not entirely the case. Sure, they gave up 51 sacks, but that stat is a bit misleading. Too often Rodgers will hold onto the ball too long looking for a big play, other times McCarthy will inexplicably abandoned the run game making our offense one dimensional. That leads to the defensive ends pinning their ears back and coming strong at Rodgers. This will have to improve this season. There has been a complete flip of the offensive line this year. Former right tackle, Bryan Bulaga, is now going to be playing left tackle, former right guard, Josh Sitton, is now going to be playing Left Guard. The theory behind the switch is that you want your best O-Lineman on the left side protecting the blind side of your quarterback. On paper this move makes a lot of sense. It pushes the inferior, T.J. Lang, to Right Guard and forces much criticized Marshall Newhosue, to compete for the right tackle job.
Bryan Bulaga has had his share of ups and downs during his career but is still only 24 years old. Bulaga has struggles vs speed rushers and will occasionally lose focus on technique but for most of the 2011 season he was performing at a Pro Bowl level on the right side. In the early part of last season he was playing very well, but most people remember the Monday night debacle against the Seahawks where he was abused like a red headed step child. Bulaga later went down with a serious hip injury but should be 100 percent now. A switch back to his old college position on the left side should be an easy transition for him. He is expected to take a step up this year in protecting the blind side as well as getting a strong push in the run game. David Bakhtiari, a rookie from Colorado, chosen in the 4th round is expected to back up Bulaga on the left side. Bakhtiari has very good feet, can get to the second level but will need to get stronger and work on his drop step in pass protection. He has very good developmental tools, and if called on early he could impress.
The right tackle position will be Marshall Newhouse’s to lose. Newhouse was much maligned as the Packer’s left tackle but did play ok in spurts. He certainly has his struggles in pass protection, where he loses focus and looks like he completely forgets how to play the position but other times where he is serviceable enough to at least allow Rodgers a chance to step up in the pocket. He doesn’t get much push in the run game either, and doesn’t excel at getting to the 2nd level. He does have a lot of experience starting for this team and a switch to the right side where at least Rodgers can see the rusher come at him may prove to be better. Don Barclay, and undrafted free agent, got some time at Right Tackle last season after Bulaga went down and filled in nicely. He wasn’t a stud and wasn’t without help from running backs or tight ends but he showed he is capable of holding down the right side. Once he was inserted into the lineup the run game improved as well. He will be on Newhouse’s heels competing for the starting job.
Although it’s easy to forget about Derek Sherrod because he hasn’t played since his rookie season there is still a chance he can compete for the right tackle job. Sherrod is still recovering from a terrible leg injury in which he broke multiple bones, but word from camp is that he is close to practicing with the team. Sherrod was a 1st round pick and taken with the hope he could eventually be the blind side protector of the future. He showed little as a rookie early but started to finally figure things out before he was carted off the field. He has a long road ahead of him to earn a starting spot but it’s not easy to write off a high draft pick.
The guard position on the offensive line is the strength. Josh Sitton was a pro bowl player last year and was probably deserving of for the last couple years. When healthy he is arguably one of the best guards in the league. He can push his man back in the run game, and is a rock in pass protection. A switch to the left side might be a bit of a tricky move. It was Mark Schlereth who said that he couldn’t play left guard because he was so used to right guard that all of the footwork and hand use was backwards. It remains to be seen if Sitton can make the switch successfully but he is talented enough where it shouldn’t be an issue.
T.J. Lang got paid a big time contract last year, mostly because he is a consistent guard with the ability to kick out to tackle in a pinch. At guard, Lang is very formidable; decent enough in pass protection to keep Rodgers clean and respectable enough in run blocking to move his man off the line. He doesn’t thrive in any of these areas but is solid enough where he isn’t a liability. When asked to play Tackle he has his struggles but with the depth on the O-Line that Ted Thompson, the GM, has acquired he shouldn’t be asked to do it much anymore.
Center is a position that is a bit of a question heading into the year. Evan Dietrich-Smith will be listed as the starter as he’s had the most time in the system. He’s most known for getting stomped on by Ndamkong Suh in the Thanksgiving game a few years back but he’s is actually developed into a serviceable center. It took him a few years to get his act together but when he was called upon to replace the old and decrepit Jeff Saturday at the end of last year, he proved to be worthy of an opportunity to start for good. The run game improved when he came in and once he gets a good rapport with the two guards he will only get better. J.C. Tretter, the left tackle from Cornell, was drafted in the 4th round to compete for an interior line spot but suffered a broken ankle the first day of OTA’s. His season is over and will have to wait to next year to compete with Deitrich-Smith. Watch for UDFA Lane Taylor from Oklahoma State, to earn a spot on the roster as a backup interior lineman, he’s impressed early in OTA’s and training camp. Andrew Datko is also a name to watch, the 7th round pick from Florida State last year, continues to get healthy from shoulder injuries he’s suffered in college and was once considered a high draft pick.
Defense
2012 Ranks
Rushing YPC: 29th
Passer Rating: 4th
3rd Down: 20th
Scoring: 13th
DL: Hold on, the defensive line is still stuck on their blocks from the San Francisco game. This unit has been severely underwhelming since the 2010 season. It was addressed in the 1st round of this year’s draft when the Packers selected Datone Jones from UCLA. Jones was an absolute monster his senior season under Jim Mora Jr. He registered 19 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks playing in their 3-4 defense, the same defense he’s going to be playing in Green Bay. Listed at 6’4 295lbs, Jones has the speed to get around blocks, the hands and pass rush moves to penetrate the pocket, and the strength to hold up against the run. He is built like a brick shit house. The Packers haven’t had a complete lineman like him since Cullen Jenkins, and Jones has the ability to be even better. Jones will be competing to start as the base end when the Packers play three-down lineman, but is sure to start when they play the nickel with only two-down lineman which the Packers played 66 percent of the time last year.
The other two defensive linemen projected to start in the base are B.J. Raji and Ryan Pickett. B.J. Raji will be entering a contract year and it’s been decided from both sides that any negotiations are going to take place after the season. This works out well for both sides because Raji’s play as of late hasn’t been to the caliber both sides think he can play. Raji is never going to fill the stat sheet but he needs to do a better job getting off of blocks to make plays as well as being a more consistent force rushing the passer. In 2010 he had seven sacks playing next to Jenkins, since then he’s had a three-sack season and last year he did not record any. Pickett is in the twilight of his career. While he is pretty strong against the run he offers nothing in the way of pass rush and is pretty much just a rotational player at this point. This very well could be Pickett’s last season playing in the NFL.
There are several other linemen that rotate in. C.J. Wilson has shown in his young career he can be strong defending the run but again doesn’t offer anything as a pass rusher. Wilson will work in on 1st and 2nd down primarily and is rarely on the field when the Packers go to nickel. Mike Daniels, a 2nd year defensive lineman out of Iowa, is primarily the pass rushing specialist of the group. The 6’ 291lb stump gives the nickel defense an energy boost when in the game. Daniels has this way of pin balling off of defenders by using his natural leverage advantage to wreak havoc on the pocket. Unfortunately, Daniels doesn’t see the field much when in the base defense because he doesn’t have the length needed to hold up blockers. It remains to be seen how much Josh Boyd, the 5th round draft pick from Mississippi State, will be used. He has good size at 6’3 310lbs and has some quickness to attack gaps and good pad level to hold up at the point but doesn’t necessarily have good length for a 5 tech. Boyd could be groomed to work in a rotation at the nose tackle position.
The wild cards of the defensive line are Mike Neal, Jerel Worthy and Johnny Jolly. I include Mike Neal with the d-lineman but he has been working out with the outside linebacker group quite a bit in the off season. It hasn’t been made clear where Neal will be lining up but he provides some much needed juice to the DL. Neal was second on the team in sacks last year with 4.5 even though he missed 4 games in the beginning of the year due to suspension. Neal has lost a lot of weight which would make one think he will be seeing more time as a pass rushing linebacker. Worst case scenario it gives Capers some more flexibility with him to get him on the field more. Jerel Worthy is expected to start the season on the PUP list but will more than likely be IR’d after he tore his ACL late last year. Worthy was slow in his development last year as he had to learn to two-gap in the Packers 3-4 defense as opposed to shooting gaps as a three-tech, something he was very good at while at Michigan State. Its unfortunate the injury happened so late in the year as he could have used this off season to improve his technique. Johnny Jolly is coming off a suspension and prison time for drug abuse and is truly playing with house money. The Packers held onto his rights while he was facing legal and addiction problems and have welcomed him to camp with open arms to see what he has. In 2009 Jolly was one of the best d-lineman on the team as he was a force making plays behind the line of scrimmage. He has got himself into good shape but there’s no telling if he is in good football shape. It would be a huge added boost if Jolly can return close to 2009 form, if he doesn’t chances are he won’t be making the roster.
LB: The linebacker discussion starts with Clay Matthews, he is the most important player on this defense and the second most important player on the team. Matthews was rewarded with a six-year $70 million deal this offseason and is now going to be looked on to take the leadership role for the defense. Matthews is one of the premier pass rushers in the NFL. Last year he recorded 13 sacks in just 12 games, while facing constant double teams. Teams know they have to have a game plan for Matthews so it’s going to fall upon the shoulders of 2nd year man Nick Perry, to step up as the other OLB in the Packers 3-4 defense. Perry was drafted in the 1st round last year out of USC, he showed up at the combine at 271lbs, a bit big for an OLB but he tested well athletically so the Packers wanted to mold him into a guy who could play in space. It was a difficult transition for Perry, while he is very strong and has good strait line speed he is a very linear athlete and plays a little top heavy. Perry’s development was hurt last year when he hurt his knee in Week 6 and ended up missing the rest of the season with a wrist injury. Perry will need to work on learning some pass rush moves to take pressure off Matthews. It’s been reported he’s showed up to camp in better outside linebacker shape knowing what his role is going to be in this defense.
Backing up Matthews and Perry will be second year man Dezman Moses who was an undrafted rookie from Tulane last year. Moses saw a lot of playing time after Perry went down and showed some flashes of a guy who can get after the passer. Moses isn’t the biggest of guys but he has a good motor and always displays a high effort. Nate Palmer, a 6th round draft choice from Illinois State will be battling it out for a job with undrafted rookie free agent Andy Mulumba. Palmer known as “NaPalm” showed great agility while testing at his pro day by running a 6.98 3-cone drill and nice explosiveness but recoding a vertical jump of 35.5”. Mulumba has been a guy impressing in OTA’s who has a chance to stick. Mulumba has good size to play the strong side at 260lbs. Both these guys will have to contribute on special teams to find a spot on the roster.
What Thompson has done at inside linebacker has left a lot of people scratching their heads. Desmond Bishop was cut coming off his torn hamstring and Brad Jones was given a pretty lucrative contract to take his place. Jones played well in Bishops place last year as he was rated as the 4th best ILB according to Pro Football Focus in terms of coverage. While he can be a good blitzer and run defender Jones is the primary linebacker when the Packers go to nickel defense. Jones is pegged to have a breakout year, and if he can cleans up some missed tackles he should be in the top half of inside linebacker’s in the league. A.J. Hawk will be back as the starter next to Jones and will serve his role as the vocal leader and play caller for the defense. Hawk has never been flashy or lived up to his billing of a top-5 pick but he has been very consistent. Hawk’s greatest attribute is that he’s reliable. He’s missed only two games in seven seasons with the Packers. His tackles per season are always very high but he is the king of the drag down tackle 5-7 yards past the line of scrimmage. His splash plays are few and far between; he hasn’t recorded and interception or forced a fumble the past two years.
Backing up Hawk and Jones is Terrell Manning, Jamari Lattimore, Rob Francois, and Sam Barrington. Manning was drafted in the 5th round last year and didn’t have much of an impact as he battled a virus in the beginning of the season that caused him to lose a bunch of weight. It wasn’t until late in the year he saw the field and that was primarily on special teams. Coming out of N.C. State Manning was a very good blitzer and also showed some ability to cover backs and tight ends. With a full off season he could see action with the defense this season. Lattimore has experience playing both inside linebacker and outside linebacker in this defense. He is a very good tackler and a solid athlete. He makes his living on special teams but don’t be surprised if he gets the opportunity to see some reps with the defense this year as well. Francois has impressed when given opportunity on the field. He’s shown good ability to cover, recording two interceptions in 2011, and is also a good physical presence. Barrington is a rookie drafted in the 7th round out of South Florida. He has good athleticism and good developmental skills to be a factor down the road. He is buried on the depth chart so unless he impresses on special team he will be a good candidate to move to the practice squad.
Secondary: Breaking up the secondary into cornerbacks and safeties you see the strength of this Packer team and a big weakness. Cornerback is stacked, not only with bon-a-fide studs but also with depth. Tramon Williams returns as the #1 CB but his play has been in decline the last couple of seasons. Since his shoulder injury in the beginning of 2011 he hasn’t been himself. He hasn’t made near as many plays on the ball recording only two interceptions last year and has been known to shy away from contact; most notably a play against the Vikings to end the regular season where he o’layed Adrian Peterson in the hole. Williams is still the veteran of the group and asked to lock down opposing team’s number one receiver. Williams is going to need to revert back to 2010 form otherwise he will be a cap casualty next season.
Starting on the opposite side of Williams is Sam Shields. Shields ended last year as arguably the best corner on the team. He was shaky at the beginning of the year allowing some big plays but after he returned from and injury in Week 14 he recorded more interception/passes defensed than he gave up completions. Look for Shields to be asked more to cover opposing team’s No. 1 target this season, especially if Williams struggles.
Coming off a six-interception rookie season, Casey Hayward showed he is one of the best young cornerbacks in the NFL. Hayward took over slot duties for Charles Woodson when he got injured and never looked back. Along with his six picks, he also recorded 21 passes defensed and 53 total tackles. Hayward is expected to resume his slot duties this season and continue on the success of his rookie year. The Packers will need his ball skills in the secondary to create more opportunities for Rodgers and the offense.
The fourth cornerback on the roster is Davon House. House made a name for himself last off season when he was penciled in as the starter until he got injured in the 1st preseason game. Going into this season he is going to have to compete with Shields and Hayward for playing time. House has great size at 6’ 195lbs he provides some physicality to the position while also still be very fast. Having four really good cover men in this day in age in the NFL is a great problem to have. Injuries lately have been the Packers Achilles’ heel but if there is any position where one could happen and the team not feel it, it’s Cornerback.
The cornerbacks fighting for playing time are veteran Jarret Bush and rookie Micah Hyde. Bush is the special team’s ace, who covers punts really well but anyone who has watched him in coverage knows he’s best not to see the field with the defense. Hyde has been impressive early in the off season work outs and will have to find his niche on special teams to make the final 53.
While Cornerback is the strength of the team the Safety position has a big question, “Who’s starting opposite Morgan Burnett?” Burnett is primed for a break out year. It’s his fourth season with the defense and has shown he is solid in all facets of the game. While he could be a better ball hawk he led the team in tackles with a 123 and has been a good play maker in the back end. Coaches this year want him to step up and become the vocal leader of the secondary.
The starter opposite of Burnett will either be M.D. Jennings or Jerron McMillian. McMillian was taken in the 4th round last year out of Maine. He tested extremely well at the combine and has shown flashes of being a very good tackler/hitter in the NFL. He needs to work on his coverage abilities but certainly has the athleticism to do it. McMillian ran a 4.56 forty yard dash and a 6.69 3 cone. Jennings was an undrafted free agent out of Arkansas St. and has shown in his young career some coverage ability but really lacks any physical presence required of a safety. He is not the strongest of tacklers. McMillian and Jennings will be battling out of the starting spot in training camp but based on pure talent I think McMillian has the leg up, and once he learns the system he could turn into a good pro.
Other secondary players who will be competing for a roster spot are Sean Richardson, who is very physically talented but has been battling a neck injury that has kept him off the field since he was signed as an undrafted free agent. Brandon Smith, an UDFA from Arizona State and James Nixon an UDFA from California (PA) are two other guys who have to make their bones on special teams in order to find their way on the roster.
Special Teams: While Mason Crosby has the contract of the starting kicker, his dismal season in 2012 prompted the front office to bring in competition for him this year. Thompson brought in Giorgio Tavecchio from California to battle it out with Crosby in camp and hopefully light a fire under Crosby. Crosby was a woeful 21/33 last year during the regular season including just 2/9 from 50+ yards. It doesn’t matter what the organization pays you, those are the kind of numbers that get you cut. I believe the Packers want to have Crosby win the job this season but if Tavecchio proves to be consistent through the pre-season it’s conceivable that the Packers may cut Crosby.
Tim Masthay has held down the punting job for the Packers for the last 3 years and averaged 43.5 yards per punt last season. That number is towards the bottom of the league but Masthay does show a good ability to place the ball inside the opponent’s 20 yard line by doing it 30 times including 14 inside the opponent’s 10 yard line.
Cobb handled punt and kick return duties last season for the Packers, but McCarthy has made it clear he would like to take one of the team’s most important offensive weapons off of that duty. Jeremy Ross the team’s presumed 5th wide receiver will likely have first crack at the job as he has experience doing. This off season has also seen Jonathan Franklin getting reps as well. This will be another interesting battle in training camp, if none of the guys can show consistency fielding the ball or provide the team with good field position it’s not out of the question that Cobb will be given the job back.
Forecast: The Packers are expected again to remain on top of the competitive NFC North. The roster is chalked full of young talent as Thompson draft and develop philosophy is really sweeping the NFL. With one of the younger team in the league there could be some ups and downs but as long as Rodgers stays healthy the Packers are going to be competitive.
The NFC is incredibly tough with the 49ers and Seahawks out West and the Saints and Falcons in the South. Getting to the playoffs will be hard enough little alone going through them. The Packers should have an improved run game if McCarthy stays balanced with his play calling and the defense should be improved with the addition of a few key pieces more specifically Datone Jones. The Packers should reach the 11-5 mark they achieved last year, be competitive in the playoffs and have serious shot at making the Super Bowl if they get hot.
Jeff Risdon’s take: As long as Rodgers is upright, he’s a top-five MVP candidate and will lead a prolific passing offense. I like the upgraded RB spot, particularly Franklin, and I don’t think they will miss Greg Jennings all that much. The offensive and defensive lines are major concerns; neither ranks higher than about 25th in their respective group ratings. I’m also not all that optimistic about the pass rush or downfield coverage being consistent. They are going to give up a lot of points even though they will have some weeks where one of the groups rises up and plays quite well. The offense will be potent enough to outscore the opponent more often than not, but that’s only if the porous line can keep Rodgers on the field. They don’t win a game that Rodgers doesn’t start, period. I agree with Cody on the 11-5 finish and feel the Packers are being overlooked as a legit contender in a very top-heavy NFC. But it’s a precarious contender status because of the weakness of the defensive front and the offensive line.