RealGM Analysis
Quarterbacks
Tier 1: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees
Tier 2: Peyton Manning, Cam Newton, Tom Brady
Tier 3: Matt Ryan, Colin Kaepernick, Matthew Stafford, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson
Tier 4: Andrew Luck, Tony Romo, Eli Manning
Tier 5: Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, Michael Vick
Tier 6: Sam Bradford, Andy Dalton, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Josh Freeman
Tier 7: Matt Schaub, Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith, Brandon Weeden, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder
* Players in bold are those players that I expect to significantly outperform their average draft position based on current ADP.
Analysis
As you can see, we have terrific depth at QB this year. Unless you play in a league which starts 2 QBs, there is no urgency to select a QB early. What should be no surprise, Rodgers and Brees comprise the top tier, with Manning (the elder), Newton and Brady rounding up tier 2. Out of tier 3, Ryan is the safest bet, with the three mobile QBs and Matthew Stafford also strong options as a starting fantasy QB. Demonstrating just how deep the QB position is this year, the tier 4 group also sports solid starting options. and I find Manning (the younger) to be a bit underrated based on current ADP. Once you venture into tier 5 and beyond, you’re into backup QBs, although not necessarily disastrous if you need to start one of these guys.
So what’s the strategy here for QBs? My recommendation would be to wait before selecting your first QB. Because of the RB situation this season (10 or so top options, followed by question marks in the next group) and the outstanding QB depth, I would draft a stud RB with your first pick. If you want Rodgers or Brees, that’s fine, but wait until round 2. Otherwise, you can wait to draft a QB sometime in rounds 4 through 6, depending on how the draft board looks when your selection is up. Just to demonstrate the depth here, Romo and Eli Manning as the back end of tier 4 are the 12th and 13th QBs based on rank. In twelve team leagues, you can be the last to draft a QB and still get one of these two (or someone equivalent). Another strategy along those lines which I endorse is to wait on QB and grab a tier-4 guy, and follow that up by drafting another QB with your next few picks (giving you a solid 1-2 punch). This would give you the opportunity to play the matchups each week with two good QBs in hand. But the takeaway here is that we have a deep QB pool, so draft accordingly.
Finally, a quick rapid-fire note as to why I think each player in bold has a good chance to outperform his ADP:
Cam Newton: While starting out slow last season, Newton caught fire late in 2012. He’s good for several rushing TDs, and he should continue to rack up lots of points.
Matthew Stafford: Stafford had a bit of a disappointing year based on the sky high expectations resulting from a historic 2011 campaign, but he should bounce back to elite levels this season. The addition of Reggie Bush should help quite a bit.
Eli Manning: The Giants are set to move the ball through the air quite a bit this season, and Manning will lead this underrated offense to great heights.
Sam Bradford: Bradford finally has the same offensive coordinator for two years in a row, and also has some shiny new toys in Tavon Austin and Jared Cook. No excuse for Bradford not to perform now.
Carson Palmer: While Palmer is good for 16-20 INTs every season, he can also be counted on to put some good yardage and TD numbers. With Fitz and Michael Floyd as weapons, look for Palmer to increase his fantasy relevancy this season.
Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill also has a shiny new toy in Mike Wallace, and otherwise is ready to make a leap in his second season.
Brandon Weeden: Quarterbacks under Norv Turner’s tutelage always see improvement and Weeden will not buck that trend.
Other Fantasy Previews:
Neema Hodjat is the fantasy sports expert for RealGM. He can be reached via email at nhodjat@gmail.com and followed on twitter at @NeemaHodjat.
