RealGM Analysis
Wide Receivers
Tier 1: Calvin Johnson
Tier 2: AJ Green, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall
Tier 3: Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald
Tier 4: Vincent Jackson, Victor Cruz, Wes Welker, Marques Colston, Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Bowe, Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace
Tier 5: Steve Smith, Danny Amendola, Eric Decker, Torrey Smith, Pierre Garcon, Antonio Brown, James Jones, DeSean Jackson, Jordy Nelson
Tier 6: Cecil Shorts, Greg Jennings, Tavon Austin, Anquan Boldin, Steve Johnson, Josh Gordon, Miles Austin, Golden Tate, Sidney Rice, Kenny Britt, Michael Floyd
Tier 7: TY Hilton, Mike Williams, Lance Moore, Denarius Moore, Emmanual Sanders, Chris Givens, Aaron Dobson, Justin Blackmon, Ryan Broyles
Tier 8: Alshon Jeffery, Kendall Wright, Brian Hartline, Rueben Randle, Greg Little, Santana Moss, Malcom Floyd, Brandon LaFell, Mohamed Sanu, Santonio Holmes, Robert Woods, Andre Roberts, Deandre Hopkins, Darrius Heyward-Bay
* Players in bold are those players that I expect to significantly outperform their average draft position based on current ADP.
Analysis:
As you can see, the wide receiver position runs quite deep this season. Not many surprises in the top five tiers. If you recall, in last season’s draft guide I projected AJ Green as a breakout top-three WR, and he delivered. This season, I think Randall Cobb will knock on the door of the top-five WR club, provided that he can stay healthy. As you go further down the tiers, you see some more familiar names and some breakout sleepers. So what’s the best approach with respect to WRs in your draft? Go ahead and grab one in your top three picks (either your second or third round pick depending on how the draft board shapes up), and one more with your next three picks. From there, grab at least one more established WR, and make sure to grab a few younger WRs with breakout possibility.
Finally, a quick rapid-fire note as to why I think each player in bold has a good chance to outperform his ADP:
Randall Cobb: The Packers’ most talented receiver, Cobb will accumulate yards split wide and from backfield formations. Will take the next step this year to the NFL’s elite WRs.
Dwayne Bowe: Don’t sleep on Bowe – he remains a stud WR. Best reason for why Bowe’s numbers will rebound from last season? He’s got a competent QB tossing him the ball.
Josh Gordon: Suspended for the first four weeks, so take note of that. However, Gordon had a solid second season in 2012, and with the Browns now running Norv Turner’s offense, they will play in a more vertical fashion.
Golden Tate: Tate has quietly been improving each season. Now with Harvin out indefinitely, Tate will pick up the slack and become the Seahawks’ most valuable WR.
Michael Floyd: The Cardinals will be much improved on offense this season thanks to Carson Palmer. While Palmer will also throw his INTs, that’s not Floyd’s problem. Look for Floyd to have a strong second season.
Aaron Dobson: Brady will get his, and the only question is who. Dobson has impressed thus far, and is worth a flier in the later rounds.
Ryan Broyles: The Lions’ offense is a juggernaut, and Broyles has the skills to put up numbers opposite of Megatron.
Rueben Randle: Randle has impressed in camp, and the Giants will have a strong passing game this season. Add the strong likelihood that Hakeem Nicks will be injured at some point, and Randle makes for a good late round sleeper.
Robert Woods: The most NFL ready of all the rookie WRs, Woods has immense talent, and will be a difference maker in Buffalo this season.
Other Fantasy Previews:
Neema Hodjat is the fantasy sports expert for RealGM. He can be reached via email at nhodjat@gmail.com and followed on twitter at @NeemaHodjat.
