I cannot tell you how excited I am to be writing this weekly column once again! Sure, it’s hard to pick games, especially in the first week. But this column means I’m writing about actual regular season football for the first time in more than six months.

Last season I finished 174-82 straight up, counting the tie as a loss. That strong finish leaves me brimming with confidence entering the 2013 season.

Longtime readers will notice a bit of a format change this season. While I’ve often alluded to the gambling angle for games, this year I’m actually putting some (virtual) money on my words. Every game will include the active line as of Wednesday morning of the game week. While I’ve always forecast final scores for the gambling heads to examine, this year I’m showing my confidence in those scores and the spread.

I have given myself 10,000 units of currency to start the season. As I don’t have that kind of cash, I have chosen the Uzbekistani som. That particular currency trades at about 2000-to-1 in US dollars, so 10,000 som equals about $5. Why Uzbekistan? The latitude of the capital, Tashkent, is almost identical to my hometown of Vermilion, Ohio. Those two places also get about the same amount of yearly snowfall, making it apropos for a weather-themed football column, but I digress…

I will list how much som I am risking in parenthesis after the final score. Just as savvy gamblers don’t bet every game, I will pick and choose as I try to build bankroll.

Sunday Best

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)--When last we saw these two teams in the playoffs, San Francisco ran over, around, and past the completely clueless Green Bay defense. It was as if Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers had not spent five minutes on game preparation and was embarrassingly unfamiliar with how to handle a dual threat quarterback.

What makes it even more ponderous is that the Packers have an exceptional dual threat QB of their own in Aaron Rodgers. Notice we haven’t heard much from Rodgers this offseason, other than an ill-advised stand for a tarnished friend in Ryan Braun. Ladies and gentlemen, Aaron Rodgers is the best player in the game today and yet the national media routinely ignores him. We hear infinitely more about guys like Mark Sanchez, EJ Manuel, Kirk Cousins and even Rodgers’ short-lived backup Vince Young. None of those guys have one fifth of the talent of Aaron Rodgers. It’s criminal the way the national media underappreciates the awesomeness of Rodgers, a Hall of Fame-worthy QB in his prime on a perennial contender.

I don’t know Aaron Rodgers personally, but from what I gather from those that do know him, that all bothers him. It annoys him, but more importantly it motivates him. A motivated, focused Aaron Rodgers is a lethal weapon. This game is his opportunity to raise his middle finger at everyone proclaiming Colin Kaepernick the great QB of the future. I love Kaepernick, but he’s got a long way to go before he’s on Rodgers’ level. I have a feeling that Rodgers and the Packers prove that here.

Packers 27, Niners 23

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3)--This game is critically important for the Saints. The Falcons are the reigning NFC South champs, the target the Saints aspire to dethrone. New Orleans can ill afford to drop a home division game in an opener that is sure to be packed with emotion and drama. Sean Payton returns to the sideline after a year’s suspension is sure to amp up the intensity I think the Saints are going to come out and play one of the best offensive performances we’ll see all season. The fact it’s a division rival only makes it more likely. This is a very good Atlanta team that will win more than they lose, but in this one they are simply on the wrong end of the hose.

Saints 40, Falcons 31

The Sunday Rest

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-1)--Any time there is a line under three points, the teams are pretty evenly matched. In those cases I tend to look for one distinct positional matchup that favors one side or the other. In this game, I believe that matchup is the Browns defensive front-7 against the Dolphins' offensive line, tight ends and running backs. New defensive coordinator Ray Horton is going to unleash the hounds, err, Dawgs, all over a line that has weak pass blockers at both tackle spots and absolutely no depth. Their inexperience at running back and tight end, where the starters are Lamar Miller and Charles Clay, figures to be tested by the exotic, relentless blitzes that Horton loves to dial up. Dolphins' QB Ryan Tannehill has a tendency to drop his eyes when rushed as well, which takes away from Mike Wallace blazing down the field. I don’t see a lot of points in this one, and the Dolphins have a distinct advantage in a field goal competition; The Browns just finally added a kicker to their roster in Billy Cundiff, yet I like the home team, in part because these Dolphins are notorious slow starters. They’ve lost six of their last seven openers. This one makes it seven of eight.

Browns 17, Dolphins 14 (with 250 som wagered)

New England Patriots (-10.5) at Buffalo Bills--Both these teams got annihilated by the Lions in preseason, but there is a huge difference in how Detroit whipped them. For New England, four quick turnovers and a lousy performance from overmatched backup QB Ryan Mallett were the root causes. Neither of those figures to be in play in this game. Meanwhile, the Bills couldn’t cover any Lions receivers in a game where Calvin Johnson didn’t play, and their QB situation made Bills fans long for the glory days of JP Losman. Unfortunately for the Bills, both of those are still issues entering the opener. Losing top corner Stephon Gilmore is a huge blow for Buffalo. The 10.5 point line concerns me some, as double digit road favorites cover less than one third of the time. The Patriots are a strong choice for Survivor fantasy pools, though I’m choosing to save them for a bit.

Patriots 24, Bills 14

Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-3)--I have no earthly idea why the Bears are favored in this game. Granted my opinion of both of these teams tends to swim against the current. I think the Bears are headed for double digit losses with their abysmal offensive line and the unsustainability of their amazing turnover production on defense a year ago. On the flip side, I’ve called the Bengals the most talented and balanced team in the AFC, both in columns here and in several radio spots.

In the matchup department, the Bengals defensive line against the Bears offensive line is a mismatch along the lines of Oregon vs. Nicholls State last Saturday. I do think the Bears OL will be better than last year, as they upgraded both guard spots and cannot possibly get any worse at tackle…unless they make trades with the Packers. But Geno Atkins & Co. is a handful for the best lines in the league. I really like new Bears coach Marc Trestman and I strongly believe he will extract the best from Jay Cutler, but this is a bad team to face to kick off that long road. I also really like the Bengals two TE sets against the Bears’ middling safeties.

Bengals 23, Bears 20

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-4.5)--These two franchises have alternated seasons as pleasantly surprising Wild Card teams from the NFC North. One has the best running back in the game, the other has the best wide receiver in the game. Those two stars, Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson, did not disappoint when these two rival got together last year. Peterson rushed for 283 yards and a TD in those meetings, while Johnson caught 17 passes for 261 yards and a touchdown for Detroit.

The way I see it, those numbers pretty much cancel out one another. That makes me move to the rest of the story. As the booming voice of the late Paul Harvey rings in my head, turning the page while shilling for the magical powers of garlic, I think the rest of the story favors Detroit. I like the healthy and revamped secondary, particularly safeties Glover Quin and Louis Delmas. I love Matthew Stafford finding Reggie Bush out of the backfield more than I trust Christian Ponder to find alternate ways than AD to move the ball. I worry about new LT Riley Reiff handling explosive Vikings DE Jared Allen, but Stafford will get a chance to take some shots as well.

Lions 31, Vikings 27

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)--Pittsburgh has been a house of horrors for the Titans lately. In their last three trips to the shores of the Three Rivers, the Titans have gone home losers each time, with a combined score of 85-34 (thanks to Titans beat writer Jim Wyatt for the info). The Steelers have the most critical player on each side of the ball, Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu, both at full speed. They are a different team with those two firing on all cylinders. I’m not crazy about Pittsburgh’s pass defense or front threesome, but I’m even less crazy about Jake Locker trying to attack it. As I said in their season preview here, the Titans are a playoff-caliber team if they had even an average quarterback. Alas, Jake Locker is simply not even that good.

Pittsburgh 21, Tennessee 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) at New York Jets--The Jets are nothing if not entertaining in a Schadenfreudistic sort of manner. The spectacular implosion of the House That Rex Built is going to be a major story all year long. It says here Geno Smith struggles mightily with the lack of receiving weapons. The Bucs pass rushing acumen doesn’t impress, but I like their back seven quite a bit.

The other big story line here is Darrelle Revis. The best corner in the game is making his Bucs' debut against the team that gave up on him after his torn ACL. That’s not entirely an accurate representation, but that’s the story you get from the media that loves nothing more than piling upon the Jets. I think Revis picks off Smith, as does LB Lavonte David. Take the under on this game as both defenses are better than the offenses, though Bucs RB Doug Martin could have a nice afternoon, especially as a receiver against a Jets LB corp that struggles in coverage. If they can isolate him on David Harris, look out.

Buccaneers 19, Jets 10 (and I’ll put 250 som on this one)

Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-10)--Indianapolis is the easy and obvious choice for Survivor fantasy pools. So obvious, in fact, that they will be mine as well. I’m expecting a rather large regression from the Colts this season, but the Raiders are a glorified expansion team with major holes all over the offense. Terrelle Pryor does offer an air of intrigue to the Raiders, but that air is probably akin to the stench of manure that wafts into my new neighborhood from the bean field across the road. Be careful in overestimating the Colts offense though.

Colts 20, Raiders 6 (with 500 som burning through my pocket.)

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars --Upset alert! New Chiefs coach Andy Reid was noted for his strange inability to have his significantly more talented Eagles teams ready for openers, including last year’s flat-lined win over Cleveland that featured five turnovers and 11 penalties on Reid’s squad. While it’s somewhat reckless to extrapolate tendencies from one franchise to another, I don’t trust Reid to have his new team up for what seems to be an easy opponent. I’m not sold on Alex Smith, and I’m really not sold on a receiving corps where colossal flop AJ Jenkins is the third option. The energy and creativity that Gus Bradley brings to the Jaguars can carry the day even though the Chiefs are the better team. It wouldn’t surprise me if Jamaal Charles runs for 180 yards and three scores and the Chiefs win by 25, but the gut says go with the home dog even though it might be a pussy cat.

Jacksonville 23, Kansas City 21

Seattle Seahawks (-4) at Carolina Panthers--The Seahawks catch a break in travelling to the Eastern time zone in the opener and not during the season. That diminishes the Panthers' home advantage.

I’m fascinated by the young stud LBs in this game and how they will handle the dual-threat QB on the other side. Carolina’s Luke Kuechly is my preseason pick for All-Pro middle linebacker, while Bobby Wagner is eminently capable of taking that honor for the Seahawks. Having a rangy middle LB is critical to defending mobile quarterbacks like Russell Wilson and Cam Newton. Really having strong and speedy LBs across the board is the best way, and both these teams have that.

Because the defenses essentially cancel out any dual-threat advantage, the game could very well boil down to which team can play “traditional” football better. Advantage Seattle, which has a stable of RBs and a better offensive line (though Carolina’s could be quite good as well) to attack an inexperienced DT tandem in Carolina. I do like the wild card of Steve Smith, who can make Richard Sherman look foolish. I really hope the NFL uses the “miked up” feature on those two; it might be the most entertaining individual duel of the season with the two loquacious elite talents squaring off. This is a better game for viewing than the meager hype it’s getting. I’ll take the road favorite but I really like the Panthers to cover at home.

Seahawks 29, Panthers 27 (for 200 som)

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (-4.5)--The Rams are an interesting team to follow this year. Quarterback Sam Bradford is firmly on the spot to finally produce a winner. The team has given him better weapons, including dynamic rookie utility knife Tavon Austin. Their defensive front foursome has the potential to be the best in the NFC, as does their starting CB duo. Yet there are still major questions.

The wide receivers are huge variables. Will Chris Givens and Brian Quick take leaps forward in their second seasons? How much can the West Virginia rookies, Austin and Stedman Bailey, contribute right away? Will TE Jared Cook finally live up to his promise that frustrated Titans fans for so long? Can Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead adequately replace stalwart RB Steven Jackson? Bradford himself is a question mark. He’s still largely the same reactionary thrower he was when the team made him the #1 overall pick in 2010. He has yet to prove he can elevate the cast around him, and now he must do it without personal security blankets Jackson and Danny Amendola.

The Cardinals are also a big variable with a new QB in Carson Palmer but the same old offensive line woes. In this matchup, I like their defense and the way it matches up with the Rams offense. Calais Campbell is a major handful, and the Cards secondary features two rookies that I think fit very well in nickel CB Tyrann Mathieu and safety Tony Jefferson. They still have Patrick Peterson, one of the best corners in the game. The Rams defense is going to present major issues for the patchwork Cards line and the statue that is Palmer in the pocket. This game could very well swing on special teams and/or a defensive touchdown.

Rams 20, Cardinals 17

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3)--Is it just me, or does this matchup conjure vision of the late Pat Summerall calling this game? While I was never much of a John Madden fan, especially his later years, he and Summerall were always the perfect pitch for the Cowboys and Giants. Two of the most storied franchises in the league, meeting in prime time to kick off the season? Yeah, give me Pat Summerall, even in his more scattered later days. I like Al Michaels, the consummate professional, and I do like Cris Collinsworth a lot as a color man. Michaels has a firm grasp on the proper timbre for the occasion, and he’s in on the oversaturation joke.

My least favorite announcer is Gus Johnson. I turn off the volume if I’m watching his overwrought, hyperkinetic, ridiculously inappropriate levels of excitement to routine plays. I know many people love his shtick, but I’d rather listen to a cat with its tail stuck in a screen door; it’s the same sound but at least I can do something about the cat.

Frequent readers note I tend to go off course like this when I have no idea which team to pick. Guilty as charged.

Giants 29, Cowboys 27 

Monday Night

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (-4)--There are many compelling storylines here: RGIII’s knee, Chip Kelly’s offensive pace for the Eagles, Michael Vick running that offense, Mike Shanahan’s iron-fisted style and how he interacts with RGIII. This is also a division game and a chance for the new-look Eagles to announce their presence with authority, Nuke Laloosh style.

I don’t think that is going to happen. The Eagles' defense has some major holes, ones that Griffin and the powerful Redskins ground attack can exploit repeatedly. I’ll go more abstract with another advantage for Washington: Mike Shanahan’s enmity towards greenhorn coaches. Shanahan is exactly the kind of guy who thinks about these sorts of things. He’s not losing to a college coach making his NFL debut, period. I’m fairly optimistic that the Kelly experiment is going to work in time, but it gets off to a rough start in FedEx Field.

Redskins 33, Eagles 21 (for 500 som)

Houston Texans (-3.5) at San Diego Chargers--The Chargers draw perhaps the least desirable opponent for their opener. San Diego has perhaps the weakest offensive line in the league and a completely immobile Philip Rivers at quarterback, throwing to an underwhelming collection of wideouts that don’t scare any defense. Houston has reigning Defensive Player of the Year JJ Watt, coming off arguably the greatest individual performance by any defender in NFL history. The Texans have an aggressive, talented defense that can confuse and befuddle the best lines in the league. Even with Arian Foster questionable, the Texans should be able to move the ball effectively. The difference in the final margin depends on how many drives the Texans cash in for touchdowns and how many will wind up as field goals. Because it’s early in the year and on the road, I lean more towards the latter.

Texans 29, Chargers 13 (and I’ll put 800 som on that).

Betting recap:

Texans -3.5 for 800

Colts -10 for 500

Redskins -4 for 500

Browns -1 for 250

Buccaneers -3 for 250

Panthers +4.5 for 200

Ravens +8.5 for 200

College Games

No deep analysis or wagering here

Michigan 30, Notre Dame 22 as my brother-in-law Bob cheers on in the Big House

Miami 20, Florida 17. Sorry, Brett…

South Carolina 26, Georgia 24

Oklahoma 40, West Virginia 21

Ohio U 28, North Texas 24