By Jeff Risdon/RealGM

Last Week: 8-6, which I’ll admit stung a little after going 13-2 the prior week. It was the first time since opening weekend I would not have made money on my bets as well. 51-26 on the season. 

Thursday Night

Pittsburgh Steelers (8) at Tennessee Titans (32): Thursday nights are very difficult football viewing opportunities for me. I play in a volleyball league that keeps me from being in front of a TV until about the end of the first quarter, and that’s only if I attempt to break the sound barrier driving home on I-45.

I will not be speeding home for this one. The Titans are a defensive abomination, giving up 181 points in five games. They rank in the bottom five in almost every statistical metric on defense, and they also rank near the bottom in penalties and turnover margin. The Steelers foundered a bit against the Eagles, but they will find no such resistance from the Titans. I like the prime time experience factor for the Steelers as well. Pittsburgh 33, Tennessee 17. 

Sunday Games

Sunny Game of the Week:

New York Giants (6) at San Francisco 49ers (3): The Niners get to the meat of their schedule after feasting on the AFC East patsies the last couple of weeks. I’m curious how they handle the major jump in degree of difficulty. It’s not that I don’t think they can, but I want to see them handle a team that is skilled at the forward pass and at pressuring the quarterback. The Niners haven’t seen either in nearly a month now, and there could be some rust as a result. When you win consecutive games by a total of 79-3, it’s hard to keep the intensity ratcheted up.

Having said all that, I still like San Francisco here. Aside from it being a home game, this is a revenge game. The Giants came here and stomped on their Super Bowl dreams last January, and the bitterness and anger are still fresh for the Niners players. New York has some vulnerability in the secondary which Alex Smith can exploit, and the way their offensive line has been dominating the line of scrimmage bodes well even against a talented Giants front. The 6.5 point spread for the Niners will be tough to cover, however, as few teams play as well from behind as New York. San Francisco 27, New York 24.

Green Bay Packers (11) at Houston Texans (2): Both these teams lost key performers last week, and how they adjust and fill the holes will g a long way towards determining who wins this game. The Packers lost starting running back Cedric Benson to a Lisfranc injury, the same foot injury that knocked Texans QB Matt Schaub out last year. On the flip side, Houston loses Pro Bowl inside backer Brian Cushing to a torn ACL, the result of a cheap shot by Jets G Matt Slauson on a play that would have seen Slauson suspended for multiple games if he did that to a quarterback.

The Texans have experience here in dealing with replacing fallen stars. Last year, Houston lost Mario Williams in the fifth game and adjusted just fine. Two years ago they played without Cushing himself as he sat under suspension for steroids. They signed Barrett Ruud as a fill-in, but the real help will be Daryl Sharpton once he returns from injury in another week or two. Losing Cushing is a real blow because he is a legit 3-down linebacker that can do everything well. He can blitz, he can fill the run gaps, he can cover, he can reliably tackle, he can read keys and diagnose quickly. There is a lot of talent still on the field, but Cushing facilitates a lot of what differentiates the Texans from being a good defense and being a great defense. 

Losing Benson hits the Packers hard. While he is not a dynamic runner, Benson fit his role in Green Bay quite adeptly. He attacks the hole with balance and reliably falls forward upon contact. There is a big difference in offensive options when it’s 2nd & 6 vs. 2nd & 8, and Benson helped them see more of the former than they had. Conversely, this figures to get the more explosive Alex Green on the field more. If the Texans have a real vulnerability on defense, it is to speedy runners that can bounce an inside run outside. That is Green’s modus operandi and the Packers would be wise to try it instead of battering blunt instrument John Kuhn into the teeth of the defense. I’d love to see them use Randall Cobb more in the way the Vikings use Percy Harvin as well, and this would be a great week to try that. Aaron Rodgers can also exploit Cushing’s absence with strong play action, something Mark Sanchez did quite well Monday night.

There is also the desperation card in play here. Houston could lose three in a row and still expect to lead the weak AFC South, while the Packers must begin racking up wins pronto. It could very well take 11 wins to get a Wild Card in the NFC this year, and a loss here would mean Green Bay would have to finish 9-1 to make that happen. This edition of the Packers is simply not that good, and I think they realize it. Look for the imperative to carry Green Bay to an upset road win, even though I have no idea how the tackle combination of Bryan “I’m holding every snap” Bulaga and Marshall “zero lateral movement” Newhouse is going to handle JJ Watt and friends. Bet on this one at your peril. Green Bay 24, Houston 20. 

Cincinnati Bengals (16) at Cleveland Browns (29): Cleveland remains the only winless team in the league, but I actually like their chances here. So do the sharps in Vegas, as the line has moved from Bengals -3 to -1 in under two days. Heavy money is flowing towards Cleveland, perhaps because the Bengals are a ridiculously inept 8-24 in covering as a favorite over the last five years. The Browns have already proven they can move the ball and score against the Bengals defense; in the first meeting in Week 2 the Browns put up nearly 450 yards of total offense. 

But the Bengals' defense played that game very vanilla. Expect DC Mike Zimmer to dial up different coverages and more pressure this time around. I don’t see Brandon Weeden being able to adjust to that successfully, not with such unreliable receivers. Cleveland has yet to learn how to win despite playing in some close games, and the complete implosion against the Giants last week is very discouraging. The hope for Cleveland is that this becomes a kicking battle, where Phil Dawson is a distinct advantage over Mike Nugent, who missed a big kick late in Cincy’s loss to Miami a week ago. I also like the Browns getting Joe Haden back from his Adderall-induced suspension. Last year, he largely shut down AJ Green except for one long, dramatic touchdown. Haden will be focused and I like the lift he gives to the defense.

I picked the Browns to end the losing streak last week, and for about 20 minutes I basked in my prescient brilliance. Then reality crashed in and I looked like a complete idiot. As my loving wife can attest, being proven an idiot has seldom stopped me in the past. Cleveland 26, Cincinnati 24.

St. Louis Rams (17) at Miami Dolphins (15): I’ve been very impressed with rookie Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill, who consistently makes good and quick decisions with the football. He has shown a solid ability to throw accurately on the run and buy time for himself when a rusher breaks free. Those skills will be put to the test against the Rams, who have a fantastic, albeit inconsistent, pass rush and a physical secondary that thrives at attacking the football. Janoris Jenkins has been sturdy, while Cortland Finnegan remains one of the best agitators in the game. Chris Long and Robert Quinn dominated the Cardinals last week, and they did it without any gimmicks or tricks. 

The Dolphins have a pretty solid and aggressive defense of its own. Miami leads the league in yards per carry allowed, and that will force Sam Bradford into must-throw situations. Miami can bring the heat with Cam Wake and his five sacks and 11 QB pressures the last two games, and the Rams rank 30th in sack percentage with their substandard offensive line. Toss in that Bradford lost Danny Amendola, the target of more than 35% of his pass attempts when in the game, and I see the Rams really struggling to score. Their own defense and special teams (I prefer Greg the Leg to Young GZ) has the ability to produce some points, but not enough to outscore the Dolphins. Miami 20, St. Louis 16.

Detroit Lions (20) at Philadelphia Eagles (10): My Lions come off their bye with a difficult task at hand. One of the biggest problems plaguing the team is a lack of positional discipline defensively, real bad news against a mobile QB like Mike Vick and all the speed the Eagles have at the skill positions. It would help a lot if safety Louis Delmas were to make his season debut, as he is the player who sets everyone up and calls the coverages, but his balky knee is making him the Bob Sanders of the Lions. It’s foolish to rely on him to play 16 games, but the Lions really have no other options. 

If the Lions can play within themselves on defense, they have a chance to thrive. Philly’s makeshift OL is no match for the Lions defensive front, as long as Suh & Co. avoid being overaggressive. But I don’t see Defensive Coordinator Gunther Cunningham being able to fix that mentality, and I greatly worry than LeSean McCoy is going to find ample cutback lanes to gash the Lions. Detroit has blown two games in a row thanks to truly awful special teams, and that’s another place where the Eagles can strike gold. I don’t expect two returns for TDs from Philly, but the Lions are bad enough to give up a big play or two that swings the field and shifts momentum. The bottom line here is that for as mistake-prone as the Eagles are--and they are--Detroit is more consistently sloppy. Philadelphia 20, Detroit 16.

Dallas Cowboys (19) at Baltimore Ravens (9): I would have liked Dallas a lot more in this contest if the Ravens hadn’t stumbled last week in Kansas City. While the Ravens ultimately won the game, they looked so awful in doing so that I think it serves as a wakeup call. Joe Flacco had a horrid outing, looking aloof, discombobulated, and overly sensitive to pressure. Yet he has emerged as one of the best bounce-back quarterbacks in the league, and I expect to see that on display here.

The question for me is how well Dallas comes out of the bye week and how Tony Romo bounces back from his five INT outing against the Giants. Baltimore is a defense that loves to go for turnovers and can bait-and-switch coverages with the best of ‘em. Between Romo forcing throws and Dez Bryant still apparently unable to grasp the NFL playbook, the Cowboys have themselves a big issue. The bigger issue is their poor offensive line play. Tony Romo, say hello to Haloti Ngata. You’ll be making his acquaintance quite often in this game. With the expected Flacco rebound at home, Romo figures to have to throw a lot and that generally spells disaster for Dallas. The Cowboys desperately need a big play early to get them going and keep the raucous crowd from being a factor. Maybe it’s a Demarcus Ware sack and fumble recovery. Maybe it’s Brandon Carr picking off Flacco when he airmails a post route as he’s prone to doing. Perhaps it’s a special teams break. They need something other than Tony Romo throwing 40+ times and Demarco Murray getting 51 yards on 14 carries. It could happen, but I wouldn’t bet on it, not in Baltimore. Ravens 21, Cowboys 17. 

New England Patriots (4) at Seattle Seahawks (12): One of the angles that many in the gambling community like to use is the prior matchups between teams. In some cases there is certainly a practical application to using recent meetings, but this is not one of those games. The last time these teams met was 2008. Matt Cassel was the New England QB, throwing to Jabar Gaffney, Randy Moss, and Kevin Faulk. His one TD pass was to Ben Watson. Seattle countered with Seneca Wallace handing off to Maurice Morris and TJ Duckett while throwing to Bobby Engram, John Carlson and Deion Branch (now a Patriot). Just five Patriots players are still around from that game: Stephen Gostkowski, Jerod Mayo, Vince Wilfork, Wes Welker and Logan Mankins. Seattle has just two: Marcus Trufant and Brandon Mebane. Of course some guy named Brady was on IR, as was Red Bryant for the Seahawks.

When you think about it, that’s pretty impressive turnover for both rosters. That both are still legit playoff contenders despite such dramatic changes speaks to the acumen of the scouting departments, the coaching staffs, and the overall vision of the men behind the teams. It means you can throw out the last matchup, where the 8-5 Patriots pounded the 2-11 Seahawks on a cold, windy day in Qwest Field.

The weather could be a factor Sunday, as the meteorological forecast calls for temps in the 50s and a strong chance for rain. Wet conditions always favor offenses with more experience and better timing, and that arrow points squarely at New England here. Seahawks rookie QB Russell Wilson has been up and down, and the Seahawks rank 30th in yards per pass play. As good as the Seattle defense is, and they rank #1 in defensive efficiency, I have a hard time seeing a one-dimensional offense outscoring Tom Brady. The fans will no doubt be crazy, but I love how Belichick focuses his team on the road. He’s like the CEO who leads a convention in Vegas and none of the attendees see the inside of a casino. Patriots 23, Seahawks 14.

Indianapolis Colts (23) at New York Jets (25): I did something this week that I haven’t done since I moved to Texas a little over two years ago: I bought an actual CD. Two of them, to be accurate; I bought the latest Rush CD and the new Coheed and Cambria release. Rush still rocks! In fact, this is their most “rocking” offering in eons, which makes this metalhead very happy. Coheed is music which typically requires multiple listens to fully absorb and I’m only on the first go around, stay tuned. 

Much to my surprise I’ve become quite the techie as far as music consumption goes. Some of that was forced, as the local Best Buy doesn’t typically stock Finnish folk metal or the latest Dream Theater and Iron Maiden live compilations. But I’ve also become a huge fan of services like Spotify and Pandora, where for the price of a new CD every month I get pretty much whatever I want, wherever I want it. The exception is my car, which does not have the built-in adapter to jack up my iPhone or iPad or Zen. That’s why I went out and bought the CDs; I’m driving five hours each way to the LSU/South Carolina football game this weekend, and I’ve got upcoming trips to Austin, Fort Worth, and Baton Rouge again. Is it wrong for me to want a new car just so I can stream music from my phone? 

You might be wondering why I brought all this up in lieu of talking football here. The plain truth is that I’m freaking sick of the Jets and all the hype and drama surrounding them. They’re a mediocre football team. The Colts, while a nice story last weekend, are also quite mediocre. The game is a coin flip, with heads being the better QB. That would be Andrew Luck, which is why the Colts are the pick. Enjoy your most recent CD purchase instead of watching this contest, as you’ll probably get more pleasure from it. Colts 22, Jets 15.

Oakland Raiders (28) at Atlanta Falcons (1): The Falcons have not been the jack-booted thugs I wanted them to be in beating inferior teams the last couple of weeks. I think that changes here, as a not-so-little birdie tells me that the coaching staff is emphasizing playing every play like it’s the most important in the game. That little attention to detail and consistent focus has been missing, and it’s why I can see some hope for the Raiders if they applied the same principle. Oakland is coming off a bye and has theoretically had ample time to prepare a more creative opponent-specific game plan.

The problem here is that they have a rookie coach and they’re travelling across the country into a hostile environment against a team that doesn’t rely on one particular facet to win games. Shut Matt Ryan down with extra pressure and they can ground and pound with Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers. Focus on slowing down Julio Jones and Roddy White and they can comfortably hit you with Tony Gonzalez. Atlanta leads the league in turnover margin (+10, tied with New England). They’re also lethal in the red zone, ranking 5th in TD percentage and tied for first (again with New England) in red zone opportunities. Bad draw for the pass coverage-challenged Raiders and their anemic run offense. Falcons cruise 33-21.

Buffalo Bills (27) at Arizona Cardinals (14): Buffalo became the first team in the league to give up 300 yards rushing and 300 yards passing in the same game last week. Arizona has only gained more than 300 total yards once this year, also last week. The Cardinals have lost their top two running backs, Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, for the season. Buffalo lost its top edge pass rusher, Mark Anderson. In short, don’t expect either unit to get markedly better anytime soon. Bad offense beats bad defense, especially when the bad offense is supported by a good defense that can score on its own. Cardinals 27, Bills 19.

Kansas City Chiefs (30) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (24): The only reason I’m paying any attention to this game is for mock draft purposes. Both these teams figure to be in the market for new quarterbacks, and both should be picking in the top 10 range. Josh Freeman could prove me wrong for Tampa, but that would require him to make a huge step forward in decision making, accuracy, and quickness of processing information. The last portion figures to be problematic against the Chiefs, who have two very good pass rushers in Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. 

As of writing time, it appears the Chiefs are going to trot out Brady Quinn at quarterback because Matt Cassel is still somewhere between scrambled and over easy on the egg chart. As bad as Cassel has been, it’s hard to see Brady Quinn inspiring a team on the road. Tampa coming out of the bye is as safe a pick as you can find this week. Seriously. I’m using the Bucs as my survivor fantasy pick of the week (I’m 4-1, lost with Green Bay last week) and keeping my fingers crossed. Tampa Bay 16, Kansas City 10 in a game where I really like the under. 

Minnesota Vikings (7) at Washington Redskins (21): RG3’s questionable status makes this a very cloudy forecast. It makes a huge difference, because he fundamentally changes the defensive principles. Jared Allen can’t just fly up the field on the pass rush every snap because RG3 can slip into the void and break off a 20-yard run. Kirk Cousins can’t do that. Griffin is also a lot more accurate on deeper throws, which dictates tighter coverage. I know the Vikings offense is going to get theirs. Between the markedly improved Christian Ponder, Adrian Peterson at about 98%, and the wild card dimension that Percy Harvin brings so well, Minnesota is solid enough to get their 20-27 points. If RG3 plays I think Washington can hit the 28-point mark and pull out the home victory, but if Cousins plays I don’t see them cracking the 20 barrier against the 2nd ranked defense in efficiency. So this one is conditional: If RG3 plays 75% of the snaps or more then Washington wins 28-24, but if it’s the Kirk Cousins show the Vikings win 27-16.

Monday Night

Denver Broncos (18) at San Diego Chargers (13): Just when you thought it was safe to hand the AFC West crown to the Chargers, they lay a giant egg in New Orleans. All of San Diego’s vulnerabilities were on full display last Sunday. They have coverage breakdowns at the worst possible times. Philip Rivers turns the ball over at the worst possible times. Their offensive line is subpar and has no depth at all. Norv Turner is still the head coach, and that’s probably the biggest drawback to liking the Chargers.

I really like the way Denver matches up with San Diego. Peyton Manning will find the same openings that allowed Drew Brees to throw for 370 yards and four touchdowns. Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil rushing off the edge will present major problems for the Chargers passing offense. With LT Jared Gaither gimpy with a bad groin, expect Miller to have a field day against the injured giant or his replacement, undrafted rookie Mike Harris. The running complement of Willis McGahee brings enough balance to the Denver offense to keep the underrated SD linebacking corps guessing. Another reason to like the Broncos on the road: their 3rd ranked red zone offense against San Diego’s 31st ranked red zone defense. That means when Denver gets close, they cash in for touchdowns. In a game where every point figures to be critical, that’s a huge edge. I’m a little wary of Manning’s historical issues with San Diego--he has a negative TD/INT ratio and is 1-3 in prime time vs. the Chargers--but this is a new leaf with him being in Denver. In an ersatz playoff game, gimmie Manning and John Fox over Rivers and Norv Turner. Denver 27, San Diego 24.

Bye Week: Carolina (26), Chicago (5), New Orleans (22), Jacksonville (31) 

Drinking in the Frat House Games

A warm greeting to all those attending Ohio University’s homecoming this weekend. I wish I could be there, though the concept of Athens without the Junction seems sacrilegious and depressing to me.

Texas A&M 36, Louisiana Tech 34

Oklahoma 27, Texas 24

Stanford 22, Notre Dame 21

Ohio 39, Akron 20. Go Cats!

And the game I will be attending in Baton Rouge with scouts from at least 15 teams:

South Carolina 17, LSU 15