Last Week: 13-2. That’s not a misprint, folks! 43-20 on the season, and making money vs. the spread too.

In honor of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame releasing their 2013 nominees, I strongly suggest listening to Rush and Deep Purple while reading this…or really doing anything. You cannot go wrong with Rush (personal recommendation: Malignant Narcissism), and Ritchie Blackmore’s shredding guitar work makes everything better. Mix in a little Heart, also a worthy nominee and one of the best concerts I ever attended, and you’ve got yourself an epic day. If you are more of a hip hop fan, tune in to some Public Enemy and NWA, both first-time nominees whose music this young headbanger appreciated back in the day. Now if you want to listen to Randy Newman, who is to rock music what children’s aspirin is to drugs, I suggest you whistle your happy little tunes somewhere else.

Thursday Night

Arizona Cardinals (8) at St. Louis Rams (19): At some point the magic pixie dust will wear off and the Cardinals will come crashing back down. I don’t believe the crash will be train wreck status, not with as talented and creative as the defense really is. But it’s hard to keep winning while ranking dead last in offensive efficiency. Considering there are some truly awful offenses around the league, being the worst is really saying something.

Last season a significantly weaker Rams' team hung tough with the Cardinals. Arizona won both meetings thanks to special teams returns by Patrick Peterson, most notably the 99-yard punt return in overtime. And this was not the moribund Cardinals of the early season but rather the launch of the Arizona group that has won a NFL-best eleven of their last thirteen. St. Louis is playing with much better sustained intensity, and Sam Bradford is playing with competence at quarterback. I don’t know how the offensive line played so well against Seattle last week, but if they come even reasonably close to that level again they give Bradford a chance. If the host Rams can avoid Peterson breaking off another return, be it punt, kick or interception, I like their chances. St. Louis 23, Arizona 20 on a long Greg Zuerlein field goal.

Sunday Games

Sunny Game of the Week:

Denver Broncos (14) at New England Patriots (5): Manning vs. Brady usually gets a great deal of hype, and their Colts/Patriots battles over the years have largely lived up to the great expectations. Now Peyton wears orange, finally cleaning up the mess that former Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels left behind. You know, the same McDaniels who now calls plays for Tom Brady.

If the Broncos are going to win, it will take a herculean effort from Manning. His supporting cast is not as strong as Brady’s with New England’s “everything by committee” roster. That kind of amorphous attack is very difficult to defend. Most rosters feature three or four running backs and five or six wideouts but seldom play more than the top two and four, respectively. The Patriots are only informally tethered to a legit depth chart at those positions, and the defensive backfield is much the same way. It’s a case of Bill Belichick playing to exploit matchups and riding a hot hand more than using conventional football mores. Opposing coaches get caught off guard and are always the ones reacting, not forcing the reaction. I don’t think Belichick gets enough credit for his unconventional methods and proactive approach.

Back to the game at hand. Last year the Patriots scored 86 points in the two contests with Denver, including the 45-10 playoff drubbing that convinced the Broncos to dump Tebow and pursue Manning. Denver’s defense is playing better than that now, but not well enough to slow down the offensive onslaught which Brady & Friends unleashed on Buffalo last week, scoring touchdowns on six straight drives. That’s the kind of statement football that the Patriots can lean on if they fall behind here. I think we’re going to see a close first half before the Patriots hit the nitrous oxide and speed away in the second half, while their own defense forces Manning to throw deep, something he is clearly not yet comfortable in doing with his surgically altered neck. Patriots 34, Broncos 24.

Miami Dolphins (20) at Cincinnati Bengals (13): Miami is quickly assuming the identity of the “close but no cigar” team of 2012. The Dolphins have lost two in a row, both in overtime both were more about the inability of the Dolphins to finish than the other team convincingly beating them. Such is the case for a team with a rookie head coach, a rookie quarterback, one viable wide receiver (the blossoming Brian Hartline), and an inconsistent pass rush. There is enough on the team to legitimately believe they can win any game on any Sunday, but not enough where they can overcome the learning curve that comes along with all that inexperience. To put that in plain English, the Dolphins are good enough to compete but need some help from the other team in order to win.

It also makes the Dolphins a very tough team to forecast. Further clouding this forecast is the Bengals and their strange team. The Bengals defense ranks first in QB sack percentage but dead last in yards per carry. Their passing offense ranks 2nd in yards per pass play but they’re not good in the red zone (22nd) or 3rd down (29th).

I’m throwing my hands up here. I don’t know who is going to win this game. I have no gut feeling either way. I asked my lovely wife, and she castigated me for bothering her while watching House Hunters on HGTV for the 366th time. I tried one of those toll free numbers from one of the slickly dressed shysters hawking hot picks advice on sports radio, but I couldn’t get through the prerecorded message without quickly realizing I’m a hell of a lot smarter and better at communicating the same information and I give it away. Maybe I should set one of those up. 1-877-IC-PICKS. Nah, I love my readers too much to rip them off so shamelessly. Bengals 24, Miami 20.

Atlanta Falcons (1) at Washington Redskins (16): If you are looking for a chink in the Falcons armor, it’s their run defense. Only the Bengals allow more yards per carry than the Falcons, but the Bengals at least somewhat compensate by getting off the field on 3rd down. That’s the other real issue for the high-flying Falcons, as they rank 29th by allowing over 48% conversions on third down. Giving extra time for the superb rookie duo of RG3 and Alfred Morris to stay on the field is a recipe for an upset. Mike Shanahan’s Skins would love to add a trophy pelt to the wall, and the Hogs will go crazy in the stands.

That is the recipe, and the Redskins have most of the ingredients needed to cook it up. Most…but not all. The problem in Washington is their defense, ranked dead last in efficiency (opposing yards per snap). As we all saw at the end of the Carolina game, the Falcons have a quick strike offense that can traverse the length of the field in a hurry. They also have a pretty reliable ground game, and they compensate for their defensive inadequacies by ranking 2nd in 3rd down conversions offensively. They also want to show everyone that this 4-0 start is no fluke, and the Skins would make for a nice high-profile pelt of their own. I also trust Falcons kicker Matt Bryant more than I trust Washington’s Billy Cundiff, though both hit last minute game-winners a week ago. I think the Skins can pull it off, but I’m not sure that RG3’s supporting cast is strong enough to make it happen yet. Atlanta 33, Washington 28.

Philadelphia Eagles (9) at Pittsburgh Steelers (15): The Eagles are the victims here of one of the most egregious scheduling snafus from the NFL this year. After playing Sunday night, they go on the road (I-76 West to be exact) to face the Steelers, who are coming off a bye week. One team has 13 days of rest, the other has five. If you’re going to screw a team on the rest issue, at least let them play the game at home!

I’m going to go gambler here for a minute. Home teams coming off byes that are at least 3-point favorites are 33-9 against the spread and 38-4 straight up since 2007. That happens to be the last time the Steelers lost coming off a bye, at Denver. They’ve won their post-bye game on the road every year since except 2010, when they beat the Browns at home. Their turnover margin in their last 4 post-bye games is +6, which is more impressive when you consider the Steelers have turned the ball over 6 times themselves in those games. Guess what team ranks next to last in giveaways? To top things off, the rested Steelers figure to get James Harrison and Troy Polamalu back in some capacity. Not many teams can bolster their lineup midseason with two perennial Pro Bowl talents. I like the Steelers with pretty strong confidence. Pittsburgh 24, Philadelphia 14.

Cleveland Browns (31) at New York Giants (12): Upset alert! Upset alert! Yes am I serious, and please stop calling me Shirley.

There is a significant talent gap between the two teams, but what talent the Browns do have can give the Giants some problems. Trent Richardson outside the tackles is a nightmare, and the Giants D-line is prone to giving up the edge. The chronically banged up New York secondary is prone to serious gaffes, and it generally happens when they’re feeling overconfident. I can see it now; Corey Webster turns Greg Little over to Antrell Rolle only to find that Rolle has jumped the short route because he doesn’t believe Little can actually catch the ball. The linebackers are so focused on containing Richardson that the middle of the field opens nicely, and the hit-and-miss (make that really miss) Brandon Weeden has one of his good days throwing strikes. It coincides with one of the increasingly infrequent off days for Eli Manning, and the opportunistic Browns defense forces some turnovers, one that produces a touchdown. Remember, the Browns had a shot to beat the mighty Ravens last Thursday, and they got extra time to work on all that ails the youngest team in the league. Strange games like this happen every year, and both these teams are due to be on opposite ends of one. Browns 19, Giants 17.

Baltimore Ravens (4) at Kansas City Chiefs (32): Kansas City takes over the bottom of my power rankings, which is quite a feat considering they have a win over one of the two remaining winless teams. Why? Three reasons:

1. They’ve given up three touchdowns in a row or more to every opponent this season, and in three of those four it’s come in the first half. It’s harder than it looks to surrender 21 or more straight points to every single team you play.
2. They lead the league in turning the ball over, coughing it up an astounding 15 times in four weeks. But they’re just as inept at forcing turnovers defensively, with a league-low two. That’s -13, or worse than -3 per game, in four games for you math magicians.
3. According to the good folks at Stats Inc, the Chiefs have the 30th ranked offense in the league when the scoring margin is within 10 points. When it’s greater than that, they rank 6th. Considering they haven’t lead other than the final play of the New Orleans shocker, that’s an awful lot of garbage time stat padding. They are not even close to as good as the numbers might indicate, but they’re even worse than that on the more-important eyeball test.

Ravens 33, Chiefs 20.

Green Bay Packers (6) at Indianapolis Colts (23): Two weeks in a row the officials have completely hosed the Packers. The replacements infamously cost them a win, while the Jeff Triplette regulars tried their best to follow suit last week. At some point the law of averages is going to rise up and the Packers will be on the right end of the hose. The cynic would point out that as much as Bryan Bulaga holds, the Packers are already benefitting from positive officiating attention, but the cynic in me would fire back that holding could be called on every offensive play of every game but only winds up getting called about four times per contest.

I’m interested to see how Andrew Luck attacks the Packers defensive scheme. I’m curious how the Colts handle the emotion of rookie Head Coach Chuck Pagano going on leave for leukemia treatment. I wonder how the strangely sputtering Green Bay offense will fare against a Colts team that doesn’t cover well but brings a lot of pressure on the quarterback. I think Rodgers will have more success than Luck, and the Colts come out inspired but can’t sustain the emotion. As the Saints have taught us this year, the head coach matters. Packers get a 30-20 road win in my survivor fantasy pick of the week.

Chicago Bears (7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (26): The bigger story here is not the game between the Jaguars and Bears, but rather the war between Jay Cutler and the Bears. Two games ago he got surly with overwhelmed LT J’Marcus Webb, breaking the unwritten law of “never make contact with a teammate in anger”. It was a punk move by a noted whiner, but the Bears did an admirable job of smoothing it over. Last week Cutler went to the sidelines and Offensive Coordinator Mike Tice sat down to discuss the most recent mistake. Cutler leapt up and stormed away, going from vapid punk to shameless little bitch in the span of a week.

I don’t care how Lovie Smith tries to explain this one away; pro athletes cannot treat coaches with that level of blatant disrespect and not have repercussions. Since Chicago is obviously not going to bench him in favor of Jason Campbell, I suspect the negative implications come once adversity strikes again. It might not happen against a Jacksonville defense that registered exactly one QB pressure on Andy Dalton last week, but at some point the shoe will be on the other foot for Cutler. Maybe it’s one of his patented red zone interceptions, or a high throw over the middle that gets a receiver flattened, or showing up volatile Brandon Marshall on the sideline and Marshall fights fire with fists of napalm. Mark my words, it’s going to happen. Bears 27, Jaguars 6.

Seattle Seahawks (17) at Carolina Panthers (25): When I was a kid one of my favorite commercials was for Foamy shaving cream by Gillette. It featured some guys covering the bottom of a roller coaster with Foamy shaving cream, with a deep throated announcer wondering if the thick, rich lather could really slow down a speeding roller coaster car. The coaster, of course, blew right through the Foamy with the announcer saying “of course not”…

The roller coaster here is Marshawn Lynch, and the shaving cream is the Carolina run defense. It’s too bad the Panthers don’t play at Gillette Field (home of the Patriots) or else the ad would be a perfect allegory. For the record I use Neutrogena Sensitive Skin lotion to shave, though I fondly remember learning to shave with the Foamy in the green capped can. Seahawks 20, Panthers 17.

Buffalo Bills (22) at San Francisco 49ers (3): A lot of people are trumpeting CJ Spiller’s gaudy yards per carry statistic of 8.32 as a reason why the Bills have a fighting chance. Here’s a cold shower for those people: it’s 41 carries over four weeks, and his last two games are at 12 carries for 49 yards with more fumbles lost than touchdowns. The Niners give up just 3.2 yards per carry, including a ridiculously stout 1.8 yards on first down attempts. Small sample size meets correction, to the dismay of Bills fans and fantasy geeks everywhere. Look for the Niners to go at least +3 in the turnover battle and win the rushing yardage battle by at least 50 yards as they cruise to an easy home win. Niners 24, Bills 10.

San Diego Chargers (10) at New Orleans Saints (27): The winless Saints are favored by more than a field goal to beat the 3-1 Chargers. If ever San Diego coach Norv Turner learns how to turn bulletin board disrespect into a lean, mean, football machine, he’s got ample legit fodder here. Almost nobody thinks they can win; more than 8% of entrants are using the Saints in their survivor fantasy pools this week, while under 2% are using the Chargers. C’mon Norv, inspire the troops! This is your chance to seize the day and work your team into a lather over being disrespected and insulted. Modern athletes respond to that, not your analytical breakdowns of matchups, which are indeed masterful but induce yawns instead of fire.

I can tell you this, Mr Turner: the team on the other side is going to be playing with the desperation of a cornered wolverine. If you don’t get your team up on the animal ferocity scale beyond meerkat, those angry badgers are going to tear you apart like the Falcons did. As the late Rick Aviles proclaimed in the wildly entertaining movie “Cannonball Run”--if you’re going to be a bear, be a grizzly! He proceeded to drive a monster truck through a parking lot and into a hotel lobby. That’s the kind of effort I want to see from the Chargers, and the kind of motivation they need if they’re going to prove everyone wrong and win here. Captain Chaos will not swoop in and save the day for San Diego. Saints 31, Chargers 21.

Tennessee Titans (30) at Minnesota Vikings (11): This is one of those games where I think it pays to follow the money. It also displays how the people who make a living predicting football games truly feel about Jake Locker. Minnesota opened as 6.5 point favorites, a reward for being a surprising (to everyone but me) 3-1 and at home. The Titans were pummeled by the Texans last week and lost starting quarterback Locker. Normally when a team loses their starting QB the money moves the line in the other direction, but bettors actually think the Titans are more competitive with Matt Hasselbeck. At some books the line is down to 4.5, which indicates significant action on Tennessee. Some of that is public reaction to a Vikings team that has yet to really sell itself convincingly to the general masses, even after their surgical takedown of the mighty 49ers. But for a line to move like that in favor a road team using a backup QB behind one of the worst interior lines in football, the sharp professionals had to swing big money behind Tennessee. I’m swimming with the sharks, but only to cover. Minnesota 25, Tennessee 21.

Monday Night

Houston Texans (2) at New York Jets (24): The most anemic offense in the AFC against the best defense in the AFC. Good luck with this one, Rex Ryan. JJ Watt and friends have made far better quarterbacks than either Mark Sanchez or Tim Tebow look like, well, Mark Sanchez or Tim Tebow. I very rarely forecast a shutout, but honestly I don’t see how the Jets score here with no Holmes and no Revis. Maybe Antonio Cromartie plays both ways as both the #1 corner and #1 receiver and makes a play or two, but banking on that is imprudent. Houston 23, New York 0.

Byes: Dallas (18), Detroit (21), Oakland (29), Tampa Bay (28)

Drinking in the Dorm Room Games

Ohio State 24, Nebraska 20 in a game that divides the house of one of my best friends. Enjoy the couch Mark Duncan!

LSU 22, Florida 10. Too much Mingo, Montgomery, etc.

Texas 44, West Virginia 42, but Geno Smith does enough to seal the Heisman anyways.

Georgia 28, South Carolina 26. Sorry, Travis.

Texas Tech 27, Oklahoma 20. The Red Raiders D is better than advertised. 

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