Two non-football thoughts before getting down to business: -- Very sad to see the crash in Vegas that killed Dan Wheldon. It was a horrifying sight and I cannot imagine what his fellow drivers must be thinking today. I’m not sure I could ever climb into the car again. -- The NBA cancelled the first two weeks of the season and will likely axe more after meeting with mediators on Monday. I say “Great!” The NBA shouldn’t start until after Christmas anyways. Squeeze the season down to 75 games in 5 months instead of 82 games over 7, create more excitement and imperative, and reward teams with depth and conditioning. $.01-- The Giants staked their claim as the best team in the state of New York by holding on for dear life against the Bills. Both teams are now 4-2, but you get the feeling the Giants are happy to be there and the Bills are frustrated they dropped another one they could have won. This shaped up as a battle between the Bills defense and their impressive ability to force turnovers and the big-play Giants offense, which has quick-strike ability but also a tendency to cough up the rock. New York surprised many observers by showing great ball control and care in the passing game. Eli Manning, who has thrown more INTs than any QB since the start of last year, didn’t throw a pick, though he tried on the Giants’ final offensive play that nearly blew their game -winning field goal. His makeshift line kept his pants clean, as Eli was not sacked and seldom pressured. Ahmad Bradshaw gashed out some long runs and found the end zone three times, which kept Eli from having to do too much in the red zone, where the Bills defense loves to make turnovers and where Eli has proven more than willing to oblige. The question has to be raised: is the Bills defense good enough to stop anyone? They gave up 414 yards to the Giants, which is their second-best effort of the season. They have four sacks in six games, a limp total that doesn’t really seem like it can improve with Shawne Merriman hurt (again) and no real threats along the D-line other than nose tackle Kyle Williams (also hurt). They are heavily dependent on forcing turnovers, and when those turnovers do not come the Bills are very vulnerable. Instead, Ryan Fitzpatrick got picked twice in the second half, dealing Buffalo a foul taste of its own medicine. Both these teams get their bye week now, and both need it. Buffalo must reinforce their defense, get some bodies back, and come up with ways to get off the field other than turnovers. New York needs to get healthy as well, and build on the positives they can take away from beating a strong upstate rival. $.02-- The Eagles stopped the nightmare with an impressive beating of the first-place Redskins. It was a solid effort from the beleaguered Eagles, but I saw this more as a game that Washington lost than one which Philly won. Washington used too much of the zero coverage with the line stacked against Vick. It led to a lot of free runners at Vick, but the quarterback kept his composure and made some plays after making the first guy miss. Against Vick, if anything you want him to hold the ball in the pocket as long as possible because he will make mistakes. But by rushing him the way they did, the Slurs forced Vick outside the box and into space, where he is at his best. It was a terribly conceived game plan by Slurs Defensive Coordinator Jim Haslett, who should know better from his days as Saints coach when Vick was running all over them in Atlanta. It also left little help against LeSean McCoy if the talented runner broke the initial containment--which he did quite often. McCoy is too dangerous to give all that open space, and Haslett’s scheme left his safeties and outside backers exposed in tough positions too often. The way to defend Philadelphia, as proven by other teams this year, is to contain the big play and make them beat you with a grind-it-out series of plays. Vick & Co. are explosive but not necessarily patient or methodical, but the Ethnic Sluts allowed them to make too many big plays. And then there was the return of the Rex Grossman that Chicago fans knew and loved, err, hated. Sexy Rexy threw four interceptions and looked confused and harried all day. Mike Shanahan yanked him for John Beck, who was so scared of the awesome Philly pass rush he actually just dropped the ball and scurried away on one play. Beck dropped back to pass 16 times and was hit on 15 of those. It was a crystal clear demonstration of why he has bounced around with little regard after being a stunning 2nd round pick a few years ago. Washington never tried to commit to the run, although to Philly’s credit their interior defense played its best game of the year by a wide margin. This was vintage Mike Shanahan, stubbornly clinging to a game plan that wasn’t working and playing into the hands of his enemy. It was an all-around fail by the Ethnic Slurs, one which the Eagles will happily take as they try to resuscitate their dream season. Washington blew their chance to put Philly to rest, and it could come back to give them some nightmares of their own down the line. $.03-- San Francisco knocked Detroit from the ranks of the unbeaten with a 25-19 road win. I would say it was an impressive win, but that simply is not the case. This game exposed very real flaws in both teams that belie their 5-1 records. The Niners committed 15 penalties, Alex Smith threw for just 125 yards, and went 2-for-14 on 3rd down opportunities. The Lions wasted several chances to capitalize, going 2-for-15 on 3rd down and having just three runs that went for longer than three yards, one of which was Matt Stafford fleeing for his life and getting nine yards. Both defenses are very tough and physical, and that certainly accounts for a lot of the offensive woes. But there were several throws from both quarterbacks that just made me shake my head. There were some special teams issues that showed the inattention to detail that separates good teams from great ones; Detroit missed a golden opportunity to pin the Niners at the one, but the coverage unit stepped on the goal line, while on the flip side the Niners were guilty of a penalty where the cover man failed to get back in bounds. Both teams had poor coverage containment. It was a sloppy effort all around. As a Lions fan, I am very curious how this team handles what happened. Detroit has relied on the opponent collapsing and done just enough to sneak by, but this time they couldn’t pull it off despite several chances. Matt Stafford does not have any sort of consistency to his game; he is either freaking amazing or painfully off, and it varies from drive to drive. With no real running game, he has to deliver more reliably. And about that running game--the problem is not the backs, it’s a function of poor play design, poor play calling, and poor execution up front from the blocking, particularly the right side of the line. It is very frustrating to watch Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan see the defense bring the safety into the box and still try to run, but then also see the defense drop an extra linebacker into coverage and still try to pass. It’s as if he is trying to outsmart himself. Muppet News Flash for Linehan: slow-developing run plays and stretch runs don’t work when the defense has the offense outnumbered at the point of attack. For his part Stafford must recognize what the defense is giving and switch to plays that take it. Next week brings Atlanta, a tough opponent that desperately needs a big win. We’ll all learn a lot about how legit these Lions are next week. $.04-- Sports prognosticators loathe wildly unpredictable teams. Last week Tampa Bay got annihilated 48-3 by San Francisco, which led many (myself included) to forecast a long afternoon against the high-flying Saints. Josh Freeman rebounded from a pathetic effort last week, looking very sharp and confident and not throwing any interceptions. Their defense, lifeless and passive a week ago, forced Drew Brees into three interceptions and consistently dictated the action despite being without Gerald McCoy up front. No Legarrette Blount proved no problem, as Earnest Graham put up over 100 yards and made a couple of very nice blitz pickups. A week after nothing went right for Tampa, little went wrong as they clawed their way back into a first-place tie in the NFC South. It just was not the Saints day. Coach Sean Payton got hit on the sidelines and suffered a torn MCL and broken tibia, an injury that would put any of his players on IR. Brees had trouble with the Bucs linebackers in coverage, and the Saints were awful in the red zone. It was a rare game of empty stats for Brees, who put up almost 400 yards but arguably had his worst game despite not being sacked for the first time all year. Tampa kept the Saints from breaking too many big plays, which is how you beat them. I thought the return of criminal safety Tanard Jackson from his lengthy suspension brought a real spark to the Tampa defense, and if he is that solid right out of the box he represents the kind of midseason boon that can really elevate the Bucs. I was ready to write off the Bucs, but now I just don’t know. I do know this--they are probably the hardest team in the league to forecast, and also wager upon. That is not likely to change. $.05-- I have a few questions for Cowboys coach Jason Garrett. Among them: -- Do you think running Felix Jones between the tackles is the best way to try and salt away a game? -- Did you consciously decide to give Tom Brady the ball with more time than he needed for the comeback? -- You spoke of having to manage the clock, yet your offense is built almost completely around big play targets and a quarterback at his best down the field. Are you trying to play against your team’s strengths, or were you hoping the square peg was going to magically fit into the round hole? -- Have you ever watched film of New England? Have you seen Tom Brady lead all those comebacks before, even on days where he had been worse than he was in this game? -- Is Rob Ryan aware that defensive backs are allowed to play outside technique in two minute drills? -- Do you see Dez Bryant sized up against defensive backs? Why not try to get him the ball in the red zone every now and then? -- What was the deal with the shovel pass to Tashard Choice on third and goal? Are you trying to keep your kicker happy by playing for the field goal every time you get into the red zone? I suspect Garrett would answer those much the way he handled his press conference after the hard loss in New England, with muddled clichés and circular logic that only reinforces his own bad decisions. In order to beat the Patriots you have to have strong games from all phases. The offense was game, the defense was excellent, but the coaching let the players down in this one. Funny how that never happens to New England… $.06-- Cincinnati kept the Colts winless and front-runners in the Suck For Luck extravaganza. But the bigger story here is that the Bengals are 4-2 and have a defense that is befitting an AFC North power, one that creates turnovers and holds strong when needed the most. Sure, it took a late defensive touchdown by Carlos Dunlap to salt away the victory over the lowly Colts, but when watching the Bengals I got the sense they were completely confident that the defense would make a play. That has been their M.O. this season, and it worked again, but in this game they got a big day from Andy Dalton, who is quietly having a very impressive rookie campaign. Dalton had his first legit great game as a rookie, completing 25-for-32 while using nine different receivers and showing complete command of the offense. Great line play helped--Andrew Whitworth manhandled Dwight Freeney and all other comers--but I am really impressed with how Dalton dictated the game. He diagnoses the coverage and pressure very handily and identifies the right place to go with the ball. That is a skill that many quarterbacks take years to develop (cough*Matt Stafford*cough) but Dalton is very advanced for a rookie in that regard. He has a legit big-play target in AJ Green, who strongly resembles Calvin Johnson in the red zone. Jermaine Gresham is a rock solid target as a tight end and has quickly earned Dalton’s trust. One of the things I have liked in Dalton is his ability to throw a guy open, which he did to Jerome Simpson a couple times in this game. You can see the team gaining confidence in Dalton, and all of the sudden you must take the Bengals seriously as a legit playoff contender in the crowded second tier of the AFC behind New England and Baltimore. A quick note on the whole Suck for Luck notion. It’s complete BS. If you honestly think players with non-guaranteed contracts are trying to lose games so the team they play for might get a shot at a quarterback that might be the real deal, when those players might not even be on that team the next year, I have a shiny Yugo I can sell you for the bargain price of $2,000. There is zero chance any player would go along with that. The Colts, Rams, Dolphins, and Cardinals might all suck, but they’re not intentionally sucking for Andrew Luck. $.07-- The St. Louis Rams are in very real danger of torpedoing the once-promising career of 2010 #1 overall draft pick Sam Bradford. What makes it all the more heartbreaking for Rams fans is that two other first round picks, bookend tackles Rodger Saffold and Jason Smith, are a big part of the problem. They have several lower-tier swings and misses with receivers as well. The toll is visible on Bradford. When I watch Bradford the past couple of weeks, I feel like I am watching David Carr all over again. Carr was also a #1 overall pick that showed initial promise before all hope was beaten out of him in Houston behind some awful lines and with limited receiving options. Saffold’s regression from a strong rookie campaign is a story in its own right, but the impact on Bradford is even more worrisome. Bradford appears to lack confidence in everyone around him, from his line to his receivers to his coaches. You can see his eyes focused on the rush and not on finding targets down the field. The Rams actually had some open receivers down the field at times, but Bradford gives up on the play at the first sign of pressure and checks down. He throws the ball without authority, almost as if he is trying to baby the ball into the receiver. The same thing happened with Carr, a similar gunslinger early that became a nervous checkdown master. Don’t forget Bradford had his shoulder badly injured two years in a row at Oklahoma, an issue that made me downgrade his draft stock. He’s a much more physically impressive man now, but at some point he has to be thinking about self-preservation. The Rams actually played a pretty fair game outside of the first quarter. They had some chances and consistently squandered good field position. Sam Bradford has got to take advantage of those opportunities with confidence and swagger. The #1 pick in a draft has got to be that guy, and right now Sam Bradford is not that guy. If he doesn’t get more help, he never will be. $.08--5 NFL quickies: 1. Two other things from the Packers evisceration of the Rams. First, the Packers should never be allowed to wear those horrifying uniforms ever again. Second, can we keep the Lambeau Leap an exclusive property of Lambeau Field? I love the tradition that goes with it for the Packers, but when I see other teams doing it I can’t help but think it’s a stale copycat. And if you are going to leap into the stands in places like Detroit or Washington, you had darn well better be able to make the leap. 2. Vince Young gets his first opportunity in relief of Michael Vick, who left the game (again) with a minor shoulder injury. Young’s first play is an ill-advised scramble where he never saw his tight end standing alone 12 yards down the middle of the field. Second play is an ugly INT on a badly thrown ball. He gave Washington renewed hope, and Vick quickly got himself back in the game before Young could do further damage. That there are still sycophants that think Young is an elite franchise QB--and they most certainly do exist--is the most befuddling thing to me this side of the inexplicable popularity of all things Kardashian. 3. San Francisco became the first team based in the Pacific Time Zone to win three games in the Eastern Time Zone in less than six weeks since 1996. The wins were at Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Detroit, not exactly pushovers either. If they can run the table in their own division--and they certainly can--the Niners could very well be the #2 seed in the NFC. They can thank their successful road trips east for that. I would like to see more class from both Jim Harbaugh and Jim Schwartz though. 4. Thought that made me shudder: The Jason Campbell injury in Oakland is exactly what Brett Favre has been waiting for. A playoff-caliber team loses their starting QB midseason, the backup stinks, and in a desperate attempt to salvage a season they turn to old #4 to ride in from the sunset and save the day. God I hope not, but it would not surprise me. 5. It is really sad to see Donovan McNabb go out this way. Granted his offensive line in Minnesota is terrible, but McNabb has unfortunately proven that his lousy season in Washington was no aberration. McNabb was once a great quarterback with good moxie and escapability. Now he has neither, and it is painful to think this is the same guy. It is Christian Ponder time in Minnesota…and probably a few weeks too late. $.09--5 College/Draft Quickies: 1. Carefully watched the USC/Cal game Thursday night specifically to watch Trojan QB Matt Barkley. Frankly, I do not get the 1st round hype. I like the mechanics and the posture, but he just doesn’t put any mustard on his throws. Every throw is a softball toss, and when he has to bring the fastball he really loses accuracy. Throwing down the field is a real problem. His O-line is substandard, but pressure happens in the NFL all the time and Barkley does not yet handle it well. I have seen enough of him in other games where I questioned his lofty status amongst several draftniks, and this game convinced me that Barkley is very overhyped. I smell Brian Brohm II. 2. Nebraska DT Jared Crick is out for the season with a torn pec, an injury that further clouds his draft stock. He battled a different injury earlier this season and his production suffered as a result. Crick is a gap attacker with quick hands and great pursuit skills, but he is too light and upright to make it as a tackle in the NFL. I try to picture him as a 3-4 end, but he lacks the strength and lower body bulk to hold the edge, and he is blessed with great speed or the ability to get off blocks well. His best shot is as a 4-3 LDE playing next to a dynamic DT. Draft him for what he will be, not his college numbers. 3. Ohio State knocked Illinois from the unbeaten ranks despite not completing a pass until the 4th quarter. Aside from that being a pathetic display of offensive ineptitude by the Buckeyes, it shows just how hollow some undefeated records ring this time of year. The same was true in East Lansing, where Michigan State gave Michigan its first loss in a game where the Wolverines looked a lot more like the 8-loss teams of RichRod than the #20 team in the country. At first glance I thought Michigan was playing Baylor with those non sequitur alternate uniforms for Sparty, but it was in fact Michigan State winning its fourth in a row over Michigan. 4. The Mountain West and Conference USA have decided to merge their 22 schools for football purposes. Someone is going to have to explain how this benefits anyone. There is zero chance this new affiliation merits BCS consideration, and the travel extends from Goldsboro NC to Cheyenne WY to San Diego to Huntington WV. With no rational expectation to improve their bowl lot, this affiliation ratchets up travel costs and, if anything, sucks down the value of the better member schools by saddling them with more games against lesser programs. I just don’t get it. 5. For all the accolades thrown the SEC’s way, this is probably the weakest that conference has been in years. Auburn squeaked by Florida for no other reason than their QBs sucked less; neither defense was particularly impressive despite what the awful QB numbers on both sides might indicate. No team in the SEC East has won a game against a ranked team all year long. The bottom feeders (Ole Miss, MSU, Kentucky) would have that status in the ACC or Pac-12. Alabama and LSU are certainly legit top-five teams and Georgia has strung together an impressive streak, but the rest of the SEC is no better than the middle class of any BCS conference. $.10-- The NFL trade deadline comes this week, which will lead to all sorts of columns by all sorts of people throwing out trades that might happen, players that are being shopped, etc. Remember, trades of consequence almost never happen in the NFL. That is too bad, because I do think some trades could really help certain teams and players. I’ve been beating some bushes to get any info I can find, and this year sounds like it will be no different than most. There are real legs to Denver shopping Brandon Lloyd, and the Colts are testing the market with el busto Jerry Hughes, but beyond that there is very little substance to any of the hype. The two big rumor names are Peyton Hillis and Kyle Orton, but I would be shocked (shocked!) if either player is moved. All the Hillis talk is coming not from the Browns but rather Hillis’ frustrated agent Kennard McGuire. McGuire wants his client to get a fat payday, something the Browns have shied away from as of yet and appear not interesting in paying until after the season. The team is not good, Hillis is sharing the backfield with promising Montario Hardesty and seeing Colt McCoy throw some 45 times a game. It is not an ideal situation for a bruising running back to earn a big contract (and by extension, his agent a big commission), but I’ve talked to two different people within the Browns organization and they both told me flat out “We have no interest in trading Peyton Hillis”. Orton would make an excellent trade candidate if not for his cumbersome salary. Any team that trades for him will not only give up the draft pick (likely a 4th or 5th) but also pay Orton almost $6M for the rest of this season. Consider he will need at least one week of learning the offense before he can play, and that expensive rental gets you a quarterback for half the year. That quarterback, by the way, has thrown seven INTs and lost two fumbles in a little over four games and lost his job to Tim Tebow. Not exactly a glamour acquisition, no? The Raiders might have just lost Jason Campbell, but they know better than to deal for a player like Orton that probably doesn’t improve them. Carson Palmer also makes sense, but nobody wins a game of chicken with Mike Brown. Besides, the Raiders are pretty much out of draft picks to deal anyways. I would love to see the NFL push the trade deadline back to after Week 8, when more teams are definitively out of the race and more willing to part with players they no longer feel like paying. It would also allow for more playoff-caliber teams to evaluate what might really help them and how much they would value the draft picks in given rounds. As an example, the Bills at 6-2 might feel better about giving up a 3rd round pick than a 4-2 team, because the pick can be expected to be later in the round. Of course, the NFL is as likely to adopt that as they are to come to their senses and give every team in the same division the same bye week to keep competitive balance. Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com