The crispness is back in the air off Lake Michigan, and the leaves are just starting to turn. That means the NFL is back! The later start makes for more temperate conditions in places like Baltimore and Cincinnati, and it also makes those of us starved for action even more pumped than usual for opening weekend kickoff. Here?s a quick recap of my predictions for the playoffs: AFC Division Champs: New England, San Diego, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis Wild Cards: Tennessee, Baltimore AFC Title game: San Diego vs. Pittsburgh Top Sleepers: Cincinnati and Jacksonville Teams with no shot: Buffalo, Kansas City, Denver NFC Division Champs: New York Giants, Green Bay, Seattle, New Orleans Wild Cards: Minnesota, Washington NFC Title game: Minnesota vs. Green Bay Top Sleepers: Carolina and Dallas Teams with no shot: Detroit, Tampa Bay Opening week is always as much an exercise in luck as it is skillful forecasting. I?m happy if I break even on these first week picks, though this season?s slate appears more cut-and-dry than prior years. Last year I got lucky and nailed 12 of the 16 opening weekend games, and I did so because I picked ?em on the fly without much thought, for a good reason--my daughter Elizabeth was born opening Monday, thankfully in time to catch both MNF games. Now she?s just turned one and I?m not freaking out every time my wife moves...which likely means I?m about to seriously over-analyze these games when I should just look at the teams and go with the gut. Thursday Game Tennessee at Pittsburgh--I had completely forgotten about the Titans? taunting of the Terrible Towel last year until Papa Joe Chevalier reminded me about it during my weekly guest spot (shameless self-promotion: every Monday 5:05 ET, 2:05 PT at papajoetalk.com). Rest assured that the Steelers have not forgotten. As if the defending Super Bowl champs need any more incentive while opening at home in front of a raucous crowd. The Titans are tough to forecast because they?re solidly built and can run the ball, and strange things happen in lower-scoring close games, which this one figures to be. Can?t pick against the Steelers opening at home though! Pittsburgh 20, Tennessee 13. Sunday Games Kansas City at Baltimore--The easiest game of the weekend to forecast. Kansas City?s offense is in giant flux, with the firing of OC Chan Gailey and acquiring their starting RT and top reserve OL all within the last two weeks. QB Matt Cassel isn?t 100%, and a well-placed red birdie tells me part of the reason Gailey got axed was he knew Cassel at 100% would never be enough to beat the likes of the Ravens. My survivor game pick of the week, as the Ravens defense is too much for KC, even though I think the Baltimore offense will sputter too. Baltimore 16, Kansas City 3. Miami at Atlanta--Two surprise teams from 2008 square off in what has the feeling of a ?win or struggle for the rest of the year? game for both sides. This game will be decided by which defense can pressure the opposing QB more effectively. I?ll take Jason Taylor, Joey Porter, and Kendall Langford over Jon Abraham and, uh, hmm...Miami 24, Atlanta 20. Minnesota at Cleveland--I really wish someone would tell Eric Mangini to cut out all this cloak and dagger crap. You?re not fooling anyone, coach! Unless of course he?s actually going to start Derek Anderson, in which case the Browns have even less of a chance to win against an extremely underappreciated Vikings defense. Note to Mangenius: one of the reasons every single former Belichick disciple has failed miserably as a head coach is because they try to be Hoodie II. There is only one Belichick. Carve out your own identity and prove you?re better than the ham-handed neophyte Belichick we got in Cleveland back in the 90s. Minnesota finds the sledding tougher than you think, but still runs to a 30-13 road victory. Denver at Cincinnati--If you?re bold, this might be a good week to pick Cincy in survivor fantasy games, but be wary of the low expectations for the Broncos. The Bengals have had better teams than this one stumble miserably out of the gate, and Denver is probably not as bad as you (or I) think they are. With Brandon Marshall back and their exceptional bookend tackles, the Broncos have the ability to put points on the board, though with the injury issues at QB this is a good time for a growing Cincy defense to catch them. Bengals 27, Broncos 20. Detroit at New Orleans--The Saints got a great bit of good fortune this week, as starting defensive ends Will Smith and Charles Grant both got a reprieve from being suspended in the Starcaps scandal. It meshes well with the prior good fortune of opening at home against the Lions, who will start rookie QB Matt Stafford and an overhauled secondary where the best player is also a rookie (safety Louis Delmas) making his debut. The line on this one is Saints -13.5, which is the kind of spread that signifies a huge discrepancy in talent between the teams, but not enough of one that an upset is out of the question. Frequent readers know I?m a Lions lifer, and I do genuinely believe this Detroit team is vastly improved. But the losing streak is extremely unlikely to end in New Orleans. Bet at your own risk, however...New Orleans 33, Detroit 20. NY Jets at Houston--I could break down 10 reasons why Houston should win this one. Yet every time I started writing them here, I had a vision of my wife?s psychotic (now deceased) cat hissing J-E-T-S. That cat was evil incarnate and I?m not about to enrage it any further, even in the afterlife, where it lies in wait to claw more of my leg hair off, then vomit it on my shoulder while I sleep. Ah, the memories! Jets 31, Texans 17. Philadelphia at Carolina--Cloudy forecast for this opener between two 2008 playoff teams that could struggle to get back there in 2009. Carolina is perfectly built to handle the Eagles, as they can run the ball at will and protect their QB, plus get some pressure on the opposing QB of their own. The Philly OL worries me quite a bit, especially with Julius Peppers on the other side. The Jake Delhomme redemption angle plays well in my mind too. Carolina 29, Philadelphia 24. Jacksonville at Indianapolis--I keep seeing more ominous skies surrounding these Colts and their overwhelming dependence on Peyton Manning to win every game. The defense and running game need to burn off those clouds with some sunny play, but the Jaguars are a tough opponent for both. Looks like Manning will have to throw for 350+ yards and engineer a late-game drive to pull it out, a scene that is going to look awfully familiar to Colts fans this year. Fortunately for them, he?s Peyton Manning. Colts 30, Jaguars 28. Dallas at Tampa Bay--This game is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Cowboys, who sorely need to build positive momentum to kick off the new season after a freakishly quiet offseason. The Bucs are rebuilding but apparently haven?t finished tearing down the old just yet, as they fired Offensive Coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski just last week. With serious deficiencies in the passing offense and run defense, Tampa faces a terrible matchup in Dallas. The early spread was Dallas by just 4.5, which seems awfully low to me. Normally that raises a flag that says ?gambler?s trap? game, but I think the sports books vastly underestimate just how lousy the Buccaneers are going to be. Dallas 33, Tampa 10. San Francisco at Arizona--The Niners have fared well in this series despite having no pass rush to slow down the Arizona passing attack. But with no viable passing attack of their own, it?s going to be hard for Frank Gore & Co. to outscore the Cardinals, not without some help from Arizona turnovers and gaffes. Because that it totally in character with these Cardinals until proven otherwise, I like the road team here for a mild upset. San Francisco 23, Arizona 20, perhaps in overtime. St. Louis at Seattle--One of these two 2008 disappointments gets off on the right foot with a division win in week one. The Rams already lost the best player on their DL, Adam Carriker, which means they likely won?t be able to exploit Seattle being without injured center Chris Spencer. Matt Hasselbeck is healthy and the Rams don?t have any answers for TJ Houshmandzadeh or John Carlson. Seattle cruises at home 24-10. Washington at New York Giants--The marquee late afternoon game pits bitter division rivals with very good defenses against one another. Here?s a fun way to pass the time while watching: Fox Sports Inept Announcing Drinking Game! Every time Plaxico Burress gets mentioned, down a beer. Every time Albert Haynesworth?s contract gets brought up, shot of vodka. The alleged dominance of the NFC East and how it?s the toughest division in football and 3 playoff teams are coming from there--a sip of your favorite bourbon. I guarantee you?ll be passed out by the middle of the 2nd quarter. Too bad, because this should be a great game. Giants hold on 20-17. Chicago at Green Bay--The Jay Cutler show gets underway for the Bears, only to get upstaged by the Aaron Rodgers show slicing and dicing the Bears? overrated defense in what should be a high-scoring, entertaining game between these two NFC North rivals. Good week to start fantasy players on both teams, as Matt Forte and Greg Olsen figure to capitalize while the Packers iron out the kinks in their new defensive scheme. Green Bay 37, Chicago 31. Monday Games Buffalo at New England--Back in June when I wrote my Bills preview, I found myself out on a limb in forecasting the Bills to finish 3-13. All the other magazines and pundits, even the sports books, had the Bills pegged for 8-10 wins and as a team on the rise. Now it seems the thinking has swung to my viewpoint, after the firing of Offensive Coordinator Turk Schonert and the lousy performance of their starting 22 in the preseason. I?m proud to have been way ahead of the curve in seeing the Bills for the train wreck they are going to be. Playing at New England in Tom Brady?s comeback game should confirm that the light at the end of the tunnel is just a freight train coming the other way. New England 38, Buffalo 23. San Diego at Oakland--Both teams bring the drama. Oakland trades for New England star DT Richard Seymour, but he refuses to report while sports radio hosts come up with clever similes about going from the penthouse to the outhouse. My personal favorite: Picture yourself about to go on a date with the vivacious, attractive prom queen. You get to her house to pick her up, only to find her suffering from food poisoning and now you have to take her frumpy gothic cousin instead. The Chargers have some poisoning issues of their own, as ?Roid Boy Shawne Merriman celebrates his comeback to the NFL by allegedly choking and falsely imprisoning something called Tila Tequila. I admittedly don?t know--or care--about the details of that story, other than it?s yet another off-field distraction for a team that could really use some peace and quiet. The on-field matchup is no contest in terms of entertainment value or on the scoreboard. San Diego 34, Oakland 17. Drinking in the Dorm Room Games Just 3-2 opening weekend, and scared by the general state of the Big Ten after Ohio State and Iowa sputtered, with Illinois getting bombarded. We?ll know more after this weekend, but with Notre Dame and USC primed for road wins at Michigan and Ohio State, it could get worse before it gets better. Notre Dame 33, Michigan 24 USC 30, Ohio State 22 TCU 30, Virginia 10 South Carolina 19, Georgia 17 Richmond 20, Delaware 17 in what is probably the biggest game of the week that isn?t USC/OSU.