A winter storm has dumped ice and snow over much of the northern half of the country, while the South enjoys temps in the 70s and a nice warm breeze. Tell me again why I moved from Richmond, Virginia to Michigan?!? Last week?s forecast was a toe-warming 14-2, and this week features another slate of largely predictable outcomes. With the season forecast up to 139-69, I?ve nudged back over the 2 out of 3 mark. Any weatherman worth his fake name (Reynolds Wolf? Storm Cannon? Please?) strives to be right 2 out of every 3 days, and there are so many more variables involved in December football than December weather. Tropical vacation game of the week Jacksonville (7) at Pittsburgh (6): These two 9-4 teams are as evenly matched as you?d expect, and this shapes up to be one of the most intensely physical games all season. Forget the fact it?s likely to be cold and snowy in Pittsburgh, because the Jaguars are built like a cold-weather team, with a pounding but explosive rushing attack and a punishing, physical defense. You could say the same about the Steelers, and Pittsburgh is undefeated at home this year. Two keys to this game: how well the Jaguars' OL handles the pressure of the Pittsburgh front 7 and how well the Jags' secondary handles the improv routes the Steelers run so well with Big Ben outside the pocket. This is one of those games where one big play is likely to turn the tide and decide the game. Strictly because the game is in Pittsburgh and the Steelers are a dominant team at home, they are the pick here. Pittsburgh 24, Jacksonville 22 in a game that blue-collar football devotees like myself cherish. Seasonably Pleasant games Buffalo (12) at Cleveland (10): The two feel-good stories of the year meet in the Battle of Lake Erie, with a playoff spot potentially on the line. The two questionable units for these teams, the Bills' offense and the Browns' defense, each have really picked up the slack the past couple of weeks. Bills' QB Trent Edwards is gaining confidence and finding a rhythm, and obscure RB Fred Jackson is finding huge holes behind a very physical OL. The Browns' beleaguered secondary has played much better recently, led by S Sean Jones and rookie CB Brandon McDonald. If the Browns win, they?re almost certain to lock up a playoff berth, while the Bills need to win to have any chance at playing into January. Aside from the playoff ramifications, the winner of this game earns my vote for AFC Coach of the Year. If I would have uttered that sentence even 2 months ago, you?d have spat your beverage in uncontrollable laughter, but that?s a further testament to the great jobs done by Dick Jauron and Romeo Crennel. As for the matchups, I don?t think the Bills' injury-ravaged secondary can contain the Browns' explosive passing game. Cleveland 27, Buffalo 20. Philadelphia (20) at Dallas (2): Anytime you see a very good team put up a wobbly performance, as the Cowboys did last week in Detroit, one of two things happens the next week. That team is either going to come out with a renewed precision, focus, and attitude, or they?re going to lay a fat egg and get all the bad play out of their system. I?ve seen enough of Tony Romo and the excellent stylistic fit of Coach Wade Phillips to know the Cowboys are going to right the ship quickly. Philly has shown no ability or effort to throw the ball down the field with McNabb at QB, and that plays right into the hands of the Cowboys, who can cram the box with the best of ?em. Dallas 31, Philadelphia 17. Arizona (18) at New Orleans (17): Win or Die! The Saints are back to playing good football, while the Cardinals got downright dominated by the Seahawks last week and continue to have serious injury issues. The Cardinals rely heavily on getting pressure on the QB and forcing turnovers to help control the game, but the Saints have allowed just 6 sacks in the last 8 games. Give Drew Brees time, and his bevy of WRs will find openings against an Arizona defense missing its best player, S Adrian Wilson. RB Aaron Stecker looked solid and elusive while filling in for Reggie Bush, while the Cards' ground game is badly slumping with little sign of breaking out. New Orleans evens the slate and stays in playoff contention with a 30-26 win over the Cards in what is a Wild Card elimination game. Denver (16) at Houston (14): I ran the forecast simulator on this matchup 100 times in my head, and it wound up 50-50 and with the scores dead even. The top advantage I like is Jay Cutler throwing to Brandon Marshall against the Texans' secondary, provided the Denver OL can keep Mario Williams out of Cutler?s face. I?m not sure the Texans can run the ball effectively, even against the leaky Broncos run D, though I do think WR Andre Johnson will have a big day. I also like the experience of the Broncos, who have been in playoff races before. This is virgin territory for the improving Texans, and the first trip to the rodeo usually leaves some nasty saddle sores. Denver 28, Houston 27. Detroit (21) at San Diego (9): Much like the Ravens a week after their near-upset of the Patriots, many people are going to expect the Lions to stay strong and put up a valiant fight after dominating (but losing to) the Cowboys. Not this forecaster! The Lions' OL played its best game of the last decade, and it still wasn?t enough to beat the Cowboys. Expecting a repeat against a similarly aggressive 3-4 scheme in San Diego is as big a stretch as Chris Dodd?s Presidential campaign, even with the Chargers missing Mr. Roid Rage Shawne Merriman. We?ve got a poll going on the message boards asking if the Lions will win another game. So far it?s unanimously ?No?, and this game isn?t going to change any opinions. Chargers 38, Lions 13. Cold & Blustery games Atlanta (27) at Tampa Bay (11): It doesn?t get much worse in a week for a team than what the Falcons have endured this week. Their former starting QB and beloved leader got sentenced to 23 months in prison; they got bombarded at home on Monday Night Football by a bitter division rival; and now their head coach quits in the middle of the season to triumphantly return to the college game. You don?t have to be inside the locker room to guesstimate the morale of the Falcons. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay tries again to clinch the NFC South, a week after playing their worst game of the season. It would take a monumental collapse by the Bucs to give this game away, but if Jeff Garcia is out again?nah--Tampa Bay 24, Atlanta 10. Tennessee (15) at Kansas City (26): There are myriad reasons why I like the Titans in this game, but the top reason is this: Tennessee has to win this game to have any shot at making the playoffs, and I?m not betting against Coach Jeff Fisher or QB Vince Young when their backs are to the wall. I know Young is struggling with one of the historically worst TD-INT ratios this side of Ryan Leaf, but even with all those awful picks the Titans still have a better turnover ratio than the Chiefs who are looking worse each week during their 5-game slide. It?s quite rare I will ever pick against the Chiefs at home in December, but this might be the worst Chiefs' team ever. Tennessee 20, Kansas City 6. Indianapolis (3) at Oakland (29): A quick look at the schedule for the final four weeks actually makes me feel bad for the Raiders. Fresh from winning two well-played games over division rivals to hopefully build momentum for next year, the Silver and Black draw @GB, IND, @JAX, and SD. The worst of those teams is 8-5, and those Chargers have won 7 of 9. It?s going to be a rough slog to the finish line for Oakland, and if they quit playing defense like they did about halfway through the Green Bay spanking, it?s going to be even uglier. The Colts are getting healthy at the right time, and rookie WR Anthony Gonzalez showed he can be a downfield threat last week. Look for a big week from RB Joseph Addai and TE Dallas Clark in a Colts 33-13 victory. Green Bay (4) at St. Louis (25): My buzz on the Rams' impressive late-season surge (as much as you can call improving to 3-9 a surge) officially ended last week with their limp loss to Cincinnati. They?re no longer a guaranteed win as they were thru mid-October, but A.J. Hawk & Co. are going to need bibs to control their reaction at seeing Brock Berlin lining up under center. I do have a sense that Steven Jackson can dominate the game and help lead the Rams to the upset, but I have a hard time envisioning the Rams' porous run defense slowing down Ryan Grant, or their thin secondary holding back the 4 WR sets and Brett Favre throwing to each and all of them. Packers 30, Rams 28. Washington (22) at NY Giants (8): One frequent emailer likes to keep pointing out how little I ever say anything positive about the Giants. So here?s a bone for you, Eugene: the Giants have 4 losses, and all 4 were to playoff teams; in their 9 wins the G-Men have done a very good job of pulling out tough wins over vastly inferior teams. These injury and tragedy plagued Ethnic Slurs fall squarely into the latter, and I expect once again New York will do just enough to somehow escape with an improbable victory. I was impressed with how QB Todd Collins stepped in for the Skins and led them to victory, but how many times have we all seen the backup play great in relief, then stumble badly as a starter?New York Giants 23, Washington 21. Chicago (23) at Minnesota (13): The Bears have turned the reigns over to QB Kyle Orton. That means for the second week in a row the unthinkable will happen: the Vikings will have the better QB and WR in a game. Their defense is also significantly better than Chicago?s, and they are playing with a confidence and fluidity that bodes well for a playoff run. I can hear the callers into 670AM in Chicago next Monday already, disgusted by the mismatch of the Williams boys dominating the Bears' craptastic OL and the Bears' WRs unable to get open against Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin, who looks better each week. They?re probably not going to like the Chester Taylor/Adrian Peterson combo running for 170 yards and 2 TDs either. Vikings 27, Bears 9. Do Not Watch Unless You?re Snowed In games Baltimore (28) at Miami (32): Watch this game at your own peril. Unless you are one of those masochists who loves schaudenfreude (and I am!), this might be the most unappealing game in years. Neither team has any punch to their offense, and both teams turn the ball over like my toddler son Layne goes thru diapers after drinking a half gallon of apple juice. Even though I?m rooting for the Dolphins to go winless, I think they pull this one out. Miami 20, Baltimore 17. Seattle (5) at Carolina (24): The Panthers' offense has struggled all season against significantly worse defenses than the aggressive, talented group the Seahawks bring to Charlotte. Even though 3 of Carolina?s 5 wins are against the NFC West, the Panthers are 1-5 at home, and Seattle definitively clinched the worst division in football last week. Don?t look now, but the Seahawks are getting hot at the right time of the season. Seattle 31, Carolina 12. Cincinnati (19) at San Francisco (31): The Bengals' run defense has tightened, ranking 7th in the league over the last month, and the healthy return of RB Rudi Johnson has given the Cincy offense the balance it sorely missed. The Niners' offense ranks in the bottom 3 of every offensive category except yards per carry, but they rank 28th in rushing attempts. My favorite statistical sign of ineptitude: QB rating on 1st down, where the Niners have a rating of 63.6, nearly 20 points below the league average of 82.3. No other team has a 1st down QB rating below 69.2 (Carolina), and last week?s garbage time by 3rd stringer Shaun Hill actually improved the Niners' rating by nearly 4 points. No such luck this week. Cincinnati 33, San Francisco 10. The Easiest Game in the History of Mankind to Pick NY Jets (30) at New England (1): This game will be payback for the whole overblown Spygate fiasco, and nobody dishes out punishment and vengeance better than Bill Belichick. Expect Tom Brady to keep throwing TDs to Randy Moss and Wes Welker when the score is already 42-3. I?ll be in Massachusetts this weekend, and I?m hoping my plane ride home Sunday goes much better than how this game goes for the Jets. New England 59, New York Jets 6, and it might not be that close. Look for my top 100 overall NFL Draft prospects in the next week! [email protected]