Sometimes the weather turns unexpectedly, and even the most prescient forecaster gets taken aback. Such was the case in Week 13, where the winds blew against me and my picks just plain blew. Back in Dr. Isaac?s meteorology classes at Ohio University, one of the things we learned was that sometimes you can see all the forecast models and computer simulations you want, but the best way to ascertain the short-term forecast is to go outside, look up to the west, and just feel the conditions for a few minutes. Heeding that sage wisdom, I?m standing on my snow-dusted deck, looking out towards Lake Michigan at an ominous dark blue cloud mass heading this way. The wind is near still, and the clouds do break up a bit as they come inland from the west. It?s going to snow a little and get more humid, but it?s also going to be a much more pleasant day than the past few around here. Ignoring the pleas of my neighbor to wear pants and clean up all the dog crap in my yard, I feel refreshed about my divining abilities. No more 6-10 weeks for this forecaster! Break Out the Speedo, it?s Warm & Sunny Game of the Week Pittsburgh (5) at New England (1): Three reasons why Pittsburgh should be confident they can win this game: 1. Tom Brady has come back to earth the past couple of weeks, and it stems somewhat from how teams have aggressively pressured him. Nobody brings pressure on the QB from more angles or unexpected packages than Dick Lebeau?s 3-4 fire scheme. 2. The Steelers are getting 3 key players back from injury. T Marvel Smith is their best pass blocker, WR Santonio Holmes is a legit big-play WR and will ease the pressure on Hines Ward, and S Troy Polamalu is the kind of defensive wild card that can change games. 3. Pittsburgh has enough firepower to keep scoring, and they can do it with the run and the pass. Even if their defense has a rough time against the explosive Pats' offense, their own offense is equipped to hang tough in a shootout. And the better kicker will be wearing black and gold. That?s all well and good, but if you think I?m picking against New England you?re crazy: Patriots 33, Steelers 27. Clear and Pleasant Skies games NY Giants (10) at Philadelphia (15): Just when I thought the Eagles were going to make their move back into the thick of the playoff race and the Giants were going to choke away another strong start, Philly lays an egg at home and New York steals a win over the Bears. There are so many variables in the forecast models for this game which produce such widely divergent outcomes that this is one of the most difficult games of the year to predict. I think the return of McNabb will not go as well as his sycophants would like, if any are still left in Philadelphia, but counting on Eli Manning in December is like betting your retirement on winning the lottery. Twice. Eagles 27, Giants 26. San Diego (9) at Tennessee (13): Dark horse MVP candidate: Albert Haynesworth. The Titans have one of the best defenses in the league and are a formidable playoff team with him in the lineup, but they?ve lost every game he?s missed by at least 2 touchdowns. That?s really impressive for a guy with some image issues and impending free agency. His questionable status directly impacts the forecast model for this game, and I will shamelessly waffle on the pick based on his status. If Haynesworth plays, Titans win 20-17, but no Al means LT gone wild and a Chargers' 33-16 victory. Arizona (14) at Seattle (7): Seattle can wrap up the NFC West with a win, while the Cardinals desperately need a win to keep their Wild Card hopes alive, not to mention the division title. The injuries to WR's Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Bolden blunt the Cards' attack, and Seattle?s offense is rounding into form quite nicely. Paired with their pressure defense, the Seahawks should have little trouble outscoring the wounded Cards. It?s never a good idea to pick against a wounded animal with as much fight as Arizona, but the 12th man in Seattle makes for a pretty strong zookeeper. Seattle 34, Arizona 22. Dog Nose Weather; Cold, wet, and dark games Chicago (20) at Washington (19): This Thursday night game might very well be completed by the time you read this, but I assure you this was written before the game. Nobody gets to watch it anyway, and this game lacks the marquee appeal of prior Thursday games. The winner keeps the playoff flame flickering ever so fickly, while the loser gets to begin more serious draft prep and start answering questions about coaching job security. Both teams lost games last week they should have won, games where they outplayed the opponent but couldn?t seal the deal. The Ethnic Slurs have more to play for, and it?s a home game on a short week, an emotional week which began by burying their starting safety. Last week they were in shock; this week I bet they come out angry. Washington 32, Chicago 20, though if the Bears can strike early and kill the emotional buzz it could get really ugly for the home team. Dallas (2) at Detroit (23): The Lions have dropped 4 in a row and have not been close to competitive in 3 of those. For most teams still fighting for a playoff berth, you could expect a rebound game where they bounce back into contention. Not these Lions, and certainly not against these Cowboys. Dallas is perfectly constructed to exploit the weaknesses of the Lions--pass coverage, runs up the middle, pass protection, turnovers. The heralded matchup between Roy Williams and Roy Williams will sadly have to wait, as the Lions model (and their best player) is done for the season. Cowboys 37, Lions 17. Oakland (25) at Green Bay (4): I know you Raiders' faithful love to send me all sorts of negative email and sign me up for inappropriate mailing lists, but it?s time for y?all to be honest with yourselves about your team. Oakland has little to no chance to win this game for a plethora of reasons far too complex for your fragile, Boones-soaked minds. Even with Favre at less than 100%, the Pack are better at QB, RB, OL, WR, DL, LB and CB. Oh yeah, the game is at the vaunted frozen tundra of Lambeau Field; the Packers need the game to keep any hope of holding home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and the Raiders haven?t beaten an NFC team that finished with a winning record since 2003. Green Bay 25, Oakland 12. Tampa Bay (6) at Houston (18): I talked with a Texans' insider this week, and he kept raving about how the team has not quit despite the mounting losses, how strongly the team is united towards finishing strong and building momentum for 2008 the way the young Packers did last season. That?s nice, my friend (and thanks for the draft board scuttlebutt!), but turnover-prone, quick-strike teams like Houston rarely have success against the disciplined, speedy, opportunistic Bucs' defense. Tampa Bay WR Joey Galloway should cement a Pro Bowl berth in the Bucs 24-14 win. Carolina (24) at Jacksonville (8): The Panthers showed an unexpected offensive vigor last week, but the Jaguars are a different animal and a stronger animal with the return of run-stuffing DT Marcus Stroud. The Panthers rank in the bottom 3 in getting pressure on the QB, and JAX QB David Garrard is showing time and again that if you give him time, he?s going to beat you again and again. I respect what Vinny Testaverde is doing for the Panthers, and Carolina plays much better on the road. But these Jaguars are not prone to dumb mistakes and have a much more potent overall attack. Jaguars 30, Panthers 7. New Orleans (16) at Atlanta (30): This is one of the more underrated rivalry games in the NFL, but this sure doesn?t look like much of a contest. The Saints feature a stacked WR corps, while the Falcons' secondary struggles badly against teams that spread the ball around to multiple receivers. Since they won two in a row, not much has gone right for the Falcons, who have dropped 3 in a row in meager fashion and will start journeyman clipboard holder Chris Redman at QB. The Saints' pass defense is awful but expecting Redman to outscore Brees & Co. is a huge stretch. New Orleans 36, Atlanta 17. Shouldn?t You Be Shopping Instead of Watching These Lousy Games Miami (32) at Buffalo (17): Winter has finally arrived on the shores of Lake Erie, and that?s bad news for the winless Dolphins. It?s not often you can ever say this, but Buffalo is the better, more talented team at every position grouping. The Bills were good enough as a team to win a game last week in which they were at a talent disadvantage at most positions, while the Dolphins might have played the worst game in franchise history in getting bombarded by the previously punchless Jets. Good week to use Buffalo in those Survivor fantasy games, if by some freakish chance you?re still alive. I?m 11-2 in that contest on ESPN, where they allow you to miss and stay alive, basically by picking whoever is playing Miami each week. Buffalo 20, Miami 10. St. Louis (21) at Cincinnati (27): If Marc Bulger were healthy, or even Gus Frerotte, this game might tilt towards the Rams. But Frerotte is out, and Bulger is iffy with a nasty concussion, leaving Brock Berlin at the controls of what?s clearly no longer the ?Greatest Show on Turf?. Oh, how the Rams must rue trading promising 3rd stringer Ryan Fitzpatrick this summer. The team they dealt him to: the Bengals, who still tend to light up the scoreboard at home. I?ll hedge two forecasts here--if Bulger plays the full game, the Bengals win 30-27, but if it?s the Brock Berlin extravaganza, Bengals win 33-9. Minnesota (12) at San Francisco (31): Watch this game strictly for the matchup of the offensive and defensive rookies of the year, Adrian Peterson and Patrick Willis. The Vikings' RB and the 49ers' LB just might be the best players at their respective positions already. The Vikings' secondary has stepped up lately, and there?s not a team with less creativity or aptitude in the passing game than the 49ers. The Vikings keep control of their playoff destiny by beating the 49ers 26-10. Cleveland (11) at NY Jets (29): I thought the Jets looked quite impressive in all facets last week, particularly the play of their OL and DL. Granted they were playing the pathetic Dolphins, but it looked like real progress and cohesion. The Browns were robbed of a last-second victory against Arizona despite playing what might have been their worst overall game since their opener. That display of gumption and perseverance impresses me more than running up the score on what might be the worst team in NFL history. Good matchup of elite kick returners in this one for you special teams' aficionados, and you can bet Josh Cribbs is hell-bent on atoning for his game-altering gaffe last week for the Browns. Cleveland 30, New York Jets 24. Kansas City (26) at Denver (22): This is one of those matchups where you can usually throw out the records, and in this particular meeting the two combatants would be mighty happy if you did just that. The Denver defense is amazingly poor for a team with two very good CB's and an adequate pair of safeties, and even the scattershot Chiefs' attack should have success moving the ball on them. DE Jared Allen is primed for another huge day--probably no TD catches but look for him to either draw triple teams or notch 3+ sacks. As much as the model indicators point towards the Chiefs, I have a gut feeling this is going to be one of those games where a young QB helps cement his status. Broncos' QB Jay Cutler has the weaponry and the chutzpah to pull off a late win. Denver 23, Kansas City 20. Indianapolis (3) at Baltimore (28): Many people will point to Baltimore?s near-upset over the mighty Patriots as a sign the team is back to its playoff-caliber ways. Not me; I think they put all they had left into that game and shot their load in defeat, leaving them spent for this game and perhaps the rest of their dismal season. The weather looks seasonably pleasant, which means the Ravens get no help from Mother Nature in slowing down the Colts? increasingly healthy attack. Colts 28, Ravens 13. No more drinking in the dorm room, as the regular season has completed. Keep watching for a bowl preview in the coming weeks.