RealGM Analysis
Last week: 10-6 and I poisoned my own well by picking both the Lions and Browns to win. I should know better…45-35 for the season.
Week 6 brings us the first of the bye weeks for some teams. I will reiterate my long-running complaint that a bye week needs to be an entire division all off at the same time. It’s patently unfair to have different teams competing for the same division title getting such randomly assigned bye weeks.
Thursday Night
- Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears (even): This game reminds me of when I got free tickets to see a comedy show with an old friend. I didn’t know the comedian before accepting the invite. The comedian was Colin Quinn, whose entire act seemed to be deliberately trying to not be funny whatsoever. This primetime matchup will be some poor soul’s first-ever NFL game. Think about how unfunny and unfortunate that will be. My friend (hi Jason) and I left the show that night and headed to a dive bar to drink away the annoyance. Good call for the folks in Soldier Field at about 10 p.m. local time on Thursday night…
Bears 19, Commanders 17
Sunday Games
- New York Jets at Green Bay Packers (-7): If ever there was a trap game for the Packers, it’s this one. They return to Green Bay from London licking wounds from a bad loss to a better-than-advertised New York team. Guess what they draw on Sunday? Another better-than-advertised New York team, specifically one that will unapologetically attack on defense. Besides the first half of Week 5, Aaron Rodgers (autocorrected to Acorn for some reason) has not shown the chemistry or connection with a receiving corps that isn’t as good as the sum of its parts yet. I’m not sold that the Jets and Zach Wilson will be able to score much, but they might not need to. Way too big of a line for this one
Packers 24, Jets 23
- Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-4): Great Sunday night matchup in the NFC East. Can the Eagles remain the last unbeaten team? Can Cowboys backup QB Cooper Rush keep the magic flowing? Can Jalen Hurts regain the top spot in the projected MVP rankings? Can Micah Parsons help clip the Eagles’ run-heavy wings?
Lots of good storylines that don’t follow predictable paths here. In meteorological terms, forecasting this game is like trying to predict the exact touchdown point of a tornado. It’ll probably be pretty close, but the wind shear and contrasting pressure levels make it very hard to forecast. I think the Eagles defense is the best umbrella anyone is holding, so they get a slight nod.
Eagles 30, Cowboys 27
- Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5): Just a hunch here, but I have a feeling Andy Reid will be able to effectively sell his Chiefs players on the disrespect front. Underdogs at home?! I think Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City can use that. However, I don’t think the Bills will overplay their hand as slight favorites either.
The last time these two teams met was one of the most exciting games in NFL history. Hopefully this one comes close to the thrilling finish these two very strong all-around teams treated us to back in January. If it comes down to a field goal--and this game very well might--favor the Bills. The Chiefs (likely) getting K Harrison Butker back could just be the deciding factor, though it’s tough to trust a kicker who hasn’t played in a month.
Bills 33, Chiefs 31
- San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (+5.5): The Falcons are intriguing in how they might choose to attack the NFL’s best defense. In four of the first five weeks, Atlanta scored between 23 and 27 points. Respectability. Against a good Buccaneers defense in Week 5, Atlanta posted just 15. I think the break-even point is 16. If the Falcons get there, they’ve got a real shot. I don’t see the 49ers getting much more than that on their own though their run game is a real advantage here.
49ers 19, Falcons 16
- New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (-2.5): The Browns are the better team, but the better team doesn’t always win. One reason why is because of matchup timing. The Patriots are coming off a game against a high-scoring, run-based offense that likes to throw to the TE with a mistake-prone QB. New England shut out those Lions, who were the NFL’s highest-scoring team. Bill Belichick won’t have to adjust the game plan much to face the awesome ground attack Cleveland offers. Then again, nobody can emulate what Nick Chubb can for the Browns, and that’s why they’re home favorites. I still like New England’s power-run game and the controlled management of rookie QB Bailey Zappe, a very different style of offense than the Browns have faced the last two weeks. Matchup timing favors New England.
Patriots 28, Browns 24
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5): The Colts moribund offense must awaken to challenge the Jaguars. Indy scores a league-worst 13.8 points per game. There are too many fingers to point to the lack of scoring, but most are on the hands of turnover-prone Matt Ryan and an offensive line that cannot protect him. The Jaguars handled them a little too easily back in Week 2, a 24-0 shutout by Doug Pederson’s Jacksonville team at home. I think the Jaguars capture the road rematch too, though it’s always tough to trust that second meeting.
Jaguars 21, Colts 12
- Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins (+3): It’s the Skylar Thompson show for the Dolphins. With Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater injured, the seventh-round rookie from Kansas State gets the nod for Miami at quarterback. Thompson thrived in the preseason, and I was a fan in the draft process. He’s got a chance to show something, and I wouldn’t discount Thompson. But outgunning what Kirk Cousins will do to Miami’s mistake-prone defense seems extremely unlikely.
Vikings 33, Dolphins 21
- Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (+2): The Saints have played some pretty nice pass defense this season, and much of it stems from a pass rush that can win consistently. That’s a very bad matchup for the Bengals, who just cannot get the offensive line right. If Joe Mixon can’t start running more effectively on his own, this Bengals offense is going to struggle even more as teams like the Saints realize they can stop the Cincinnati run game with just six in the box. I like the way the Xs and Os stack up for New Orleans at home.
Saints 24, Bengals 20
- Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (+4.5): I love the feel-good Giants at 4-1. Coach Brian Daboll has his New York team outperforming expectations, which is fantastic. It’s also largely unsustainable over the longer course of a season, and I think that water starts to find its level with a visit from the Ravens.
Ravens 29, Giants 21
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5): Good weekend for Steelers fans to check out the local corn maze or cider mill instead of watching the Buccaneers pulverize the road apples that are the Pittsburgh offense. Matt Canada’s offense against the smartly aggressive Tampa Bay defense might have the home fans begging for a punt on third down.
Buccaneers 30, Steelers 8
- Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams (-11.5): Congrats, Steve Wilks; you’re the Carolina Panthers' new (interim) head coach! Your first assignment is to go on the road to play the defending Super Bowl champs. Not only that, but now go do it without your starting QB or his primary backup too. Carolina got rid of the ball and chain in Matt Rhule, but to quote The Smithereens, Wilks this week is “born to lose and destined to fail.”
Rams 32, Panthers 12
- Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (+3): As noted above in the Browns/Patriots forecast, the better team doesn’t always win. Arizona has more talent and high-end potential, but the way Geno Smith is throwing with confidence and precision is a really bad matchup for the Cardinals defense and its coverage issues.
Seahawks 23, Cardinals 21
Monday Night
- Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (+5): The Chargers are 3-2 to Denver’s 2-3, but the Broncos bring in a much better, healthier defense and a better overall point differential. I think Russell Wilson can still find enough spices in the rack to cook up an upset stomach for the home fans.
Broncos 28, Chargers 25
