Late October marks the time when the outdoor teams from the north really start to get significant weather advantages. It snowed last week in Buffalo and also here in between Chicago and Detroit. While no snowfall is expected for this weekend for any games, the Great Lakes have cooled, the jet stream is dipping lower, and the sunlight just not that warming anymore. In other words, if it?s a dome team or a southern making a trip to New England or Pittsburgh, bigger advantage to the home team. My football forecast remained strong in Week 6, going 9-4. If you take into account my caveat on the Giants, it was 10-3, but weathermen often hedge their bets with the 30% chance of rain just in case and I loathe that, so I?ll take the initial pick. This week will feature a college game as well, as the NFL has another week of 6 bye teams. Mostly sunny games Carolina at Cincinnati: The Bengals look to snap out of their two-game bender, and the Panthers look to chalk up their 5th in a row. These teams are both approximately even overall, so what explains the divergent directions? Injuries. The Bengals have been playing without 3 defensive starters and two OL starters. The defensive injuries are all recovering, but now WRs 3-5 are all out. The Panthers haven?t lost since they got their top receiver, Steve Smith, back from injury. He?s a legit MVP candidate and can score from anywhere. The Bengals don?t generate much pass rush or stop the run in between the tackles well, which are the two keys to stopping Carolina. With a 100% healthy squad Cincy would be the pick, but I really like the way the Panthers? strengths match up with the weaknesses of the Bengals. Carolina rolls 30-20. NY Giants at Dallas: You?ll no doubt digest ungodly amounts of wisdom and commentary pertaining to TO?s diva persona, Bill Parcells coaching legend, Drew Bledsoe?s maddening inconsistency, Tiki Barber?s impending retirement, Jeremy Shockey?s motor mouth, perhaps even a little about the fact these two teams are basically clawing for the same playoff spot, if they?re lucky. I?ll offer none of that but offer you this little thought cloud: Every time I?ve thought the Cowboys would win, they?ve lost; every time I?ve thought the Giants would lose, they?ve won, and won impressively. I really like the Cowboys because of their ability to spread the ball around on offense and get pressure on the opposing QB. The Giants don?t cover well and QB Eli Manning gets hit a lot behind their line. So in spite of the gathering storm clouds and the ominous tornado siren going off, I?ll take the Giants to win their 3rd in a row in Dallas, beating the Cowboys 28-27. Fair with a mix of sun and clouds games Pittsburgh at Atlanta: Another matchup of two teams coming off vastly different weeks. The Steelers finally looked like the defending champs in shellacking a good KC team, while the Falcons couldn?t tackle anyone nor cash in decent drives in losing at home to the Giants. Atlanta still continues to rack up rushing yards at a record pace despite having almost no ability to throw the ball. The Falcons are last in the league by a wide margin in attaining 1st downs via the pass, and this is in spite of the fact they lead the league in yards gained per 1st down snap. Pittsburgh?s offense might still be struggling, but their D is more than game to slow down a completely one-dimensional offense, even as good as Atlanta?s. The Falcons played most of the last game without 3 injured defensive stalwarts; this week all should play and they also get back stud ILB Ed Hartwell. This one has defensive struggle written all over it, and the team that can sneak in a big play first will win. I?ll take Bill Cowher?s renowned ability with the trick play as the difference maker. Steelers 13, Falcons 10. (Note: I changed my mind about 5 times on this game, one of those ?30% chance of rain? games) San Diego at Kansas City: This game would look a lot better if the Chiefs hadn?t drowned in Pittsburgh last week. San Diego edged up to #2 in my power poll on the basis of consistently doing everything well. They can run, they can throw, they can pressure the QB, they can stuff the run, they have good special teams, they have diverse weapons on offense, they don?t commit dumb penalties. The one weak area they have is pass coverage and tackling after the catch. If KC had QB Trent Green healthy and the O-line of 2005, they could exploit that. They don?t have either, and that is a funnel cloud of doom against the aggressive Chargers D. I only give the Chiefs a shot because it?s in KC and because I think their loss at Pittsburgh was simply catching a hot, desperate Steeler team while the Chiefs were flat. Again, I have trouble believing KC will be 2-4, but they can take solace in being the best 2-4 team in football. San Diego 26, Kansas City 17. Minnesota at Seattle: Seattle squeaked by the Rams on a loophole regarding offensive formation penalties. I?ve heard a lot of commentary about how wrong that was, how cheap it makes their victory. I prefer to look at it the other way: what a brilliant usage of a bad rule to escape with a critical victory. It also overshadows one of the more remarkable 1st half to 2nd half turnarounds of the season, going from completely outplayed to thoroughly dominant. The Vikings exit their bye week in very good overall health, and they get to face a Seahawks team missing Shaun Alexander, Bobby Engram, and Jerramy Stevens, 3 of their top 4 offensive playmakers. Seattle?s pass coverage will be key, because Vikes QB Brad Johnson is excellent at exploiting whatever he?s given and isn?t afraid to beat a dead horse bald. It?s very tough to pick against Seattle at home, especially coming off an emotional win and facing a team that lacks big-play ability like the Vikings. Seattle wins 19-13. Overcast skies with some wind games Denver at Cleveland: Always a rainy day for people like me who came of age in Cleveland in the 1980s when Denver visits the Dawg Pound. Two offensive coordinators were fired last week, but I?d argue the team most in need of a change is the Browns. Cleveland lost their last game 20-12 to Carolina in Week 5. In that game the Browns kicked 4 field goals, 3 from less than 40 yards. Five times they had 1st and 10 inside the Panthers 30 yard line. Five times they had 2nd and 10 or worse the next play, and just one of Charlie Frye?s 43 pass attempts went beyond the Carolina 5 yard line. You?re not going to win games against superior teams by playing for the FG. Denver comes off a very blah effort against a lousy Raiders team, and that is the only reason for concern here for the Broncos. If they don?t bring the offensive energy this week, the Browns do have enough firepower and a stout enough run defense to steal an upset. I?ll take Denver 23-20, though if the emotional impact of Kellen Winslow returning from the death of his younger brother inspires the locals, the Browns could put on one of those flukish upset trouncings. Detroit at NY Jets: Detroit celebrated their first victory of the season by finding out their best player, DT Shaun Rogers, is now suspended for basically going to GNC once too often. The Lions passing game has been quietly and consistently potent when they take care of the ball. The Lions also showed an ability to aggressively run block for the first time against Buffalo, and there?s no better team to run against than the Jets. On the other front, the Jets have developed a pretty efficient, effective pass offense of their own, and the Lions have the 30th ranked pass coverage in the NFL despite not playing against a QB as good as Chad Pennington. But because the Jets don?t run the ball well, and the Lions do have depth on the DL and a quickly-improving pass rush, the Lions big negative isn?t so easily exploited by the Jets. This game also tests one of my theories: that when a team loses its best player, the first game he misses his teammates more than compensate for his absence and play great. It happened in Arizona last week minus Larry Fitzgerald, and I think it will happen, with a better team outcome, for the Lions this week. Detroit feeds off the momentum of the Tigers and beats the Mets, err, Jets 27-21. Washington at Indianapolis: I mentally demoted Indy to #3 in my power poll despite them being undefeated. Washington is coming off a home loss to the team that was 31st in my power poll, the formerly winless and punchless Titans. Joe Gibbs? team has a way about them that makes their games very difficult to forecast, not unlike a weak jet stream mixing with unusually dry Gulf air. It could rain points and sacks on them, it could be a great day for sailing right through the badly undersized Colts defense. I kind of think both will happen, but that Indy?s well-rested and well-seasoned offensive machine cranks up the points and overcomes a big day by Clinton Portis and TE Chris Cooley. Colts 33, Ethnic Slurs 25. New England at Buffalo: The weather was the big bad news in Buffalo all week, but it obscured two other recent developments: J.P. Losman morphed back into the dreaded Rob Johnson clone he was most of last season, and their talented CBs once again badly struggled with the size of opposing WRs. Both their rookie safeties, Donte Whitner and Ko Simpson, look like legit players, but Tom Brady & Co. know how to pick apart a youthful defense. The Patriots locked up Cincinnati?s potent offense, and they?ll do even better against a Bills team with a panicky QB and inferior WRs. New England rolls 24-10. Philadelphia at Tampa Bay: Since QB Bruce Gradkowksi took over the Bucs offense two games ago, they?ve gone from 32nd to 20th in 3rd down conversions. The Eagles defense couldn?t get off the field last week against a similar style offense in New Orleans. The Bucs defense is also starting to look like a team with Simeon Rice, Derrick Brooks, and one of the best safety combos in the league in Ronde Barber and Will Allen. The Eagles continue to battle with lots of key guys listed as questionable or doubtful. You can get by without all your top weapons when you?re at home, but on the road after a tough road loss, you need your top caliber players all firing hot. Tampa Bay pulls the surprise 20-16. Severe Thunderstorm Warning games Arizona at Oakland: The losers of the Week 6 primetime games meet. Arizona gave the #1 Bears all they could handle before the worst collapse I?ve ever witnessed. Oakland?s defense played a flat Denver team tough, but their offensive line just might be the worst in NFL history. Cardinals DE Bert Berry looked rejuvenated, and if he?s playing well the Cards will cruise. Even if he?s not playing well, I?m not sure Oakland has the ability to score enough to cover what a Matt Leinart-led offense can contribute. Arizona 27, Oakland 20, in what might be Oakland?s last real shot at winning a game. Green Bay at Miami: The nicest weather of the day figures to be in the worst matchup of the week. Both offensive lines are terrible, both secondaries are terrible, and both starting QBs tend to play terribly when facing this week?s opponent. Miami has a terrible offensive line, and I?ve seen enough Joey Harrington games against Green Bay to know how this movie is going to end. Green Bay 34, Miami 17. Jacksonville at Houston: Last weekend Houston saw mass flooding and a deluge of rain. This weekend they?ll see mass pass completions and a deluge of Jaguar points. Of the three dog games this weekend, if you feel compelled to watch one, make it this one. Houston forgot how to throw against Dallas, but J-Ville?s defense isn?t near as fast or as shifty as the Cowboys, so Andre Johnson & Co. could post a decent point total themselves. Jacksonville leaps out of the bye gate with a 34-24 divisional victory. And the college game Texas at Nebraska: The Longhorns hope to break an interesting trend in this series: the lower rated team has won 6 of the last 8 games when both were ranked in the top 15. Texas has the speed in the backfield and the quality depth at WR to exploit the thin Nebraska secondary and LBs that gamble a little too often. The Cornhusker offensive line isn?t real strong, and Texas can bring the heat on the passer. So long as the turnover battle stays within 1, Texas rolls 33-16.