Florida State is one of the preeminent college football programs and a definite pipeline school for the NFL. Once again the Seminoles have several prospects, including as many as four who could hear their names called in the first round.

Jameis Winston--so much talent, so many questions. That is the consensus rap on the former Heisman winner and dynamic Seminoles quarterback.

On the field, Winston is a fantastic prospect. He has above-average arm strength, great pocket presence and awareness, and truly outstanding touch on deeper throws. He has enough athleticism to extend plays a la Roethlisberger, who is the closest on-field comparison I can come up with. He did struggle with interceptions as a junior, but many were in the course of trying to make something happen behind an overrated line with wideouts who struggled to create separation. His poise and clutch performance when his team needed him most effectively counter that for me; this is a leader who knows how to win big games.

Then there is the off-field stuff. The rape allegations, plural. The crustacean shoplifting. The lewd public pronouncement which led to his suspension in the Clemson game. His stubborn devotion to baseball. Flags are flying. For the most part they reflect an immature man-child, an anointed star not handling the adoration adeptly. The gamble is whether the more professional structure and lessons from adversity allow Winston to achieve his full potential in the NFL.

Many people I respect will label Winston as undraftable, not worth the fairly significant risk. I go the other direction; he’s a lottery ticket to multiple playoff wins if the final scratch matches the jackpot squares already revealed. Winston is the top player on my draft board and grades out nearly the same as Andrew Luck on the field.

Current projection: No. 1 overall to Tampa Bay, and that will not change until proven otherwise.

Cameron Erving--Erving was a middle-round talent as a left tackle, a somewhat intriguing prospect who never really put it all together. Then the Seminoles moved him to center midway through 2014 and the senior from Georgia immediately thrived.

The issues which plagued him at tackle--anticipation, inside/outside responsibilities, handling power rushers with running starts--were all mitigated moving into the middle. In pass protection, his job was simplified; identify his target to his immediate left or right, fire out the arms and get quickly squared to his slower target, and lock them up with good hand placement and base strength. It was a natural fit that played to Erving’s strengths. 

In six games at center he did not allow a sack and was on the hook for just two QB hits (thanks to Kyle Posey of BoltsFromTheBlue for the stat). Florida State’s game against Oregon did not go well for the Noles, but it wasn’t Erving’s fault. In my grading, he had exactly one “fail” in pass protection where he overextended and lost leverage. His run blocking was a little shakier as he had trouble sustaining blocks out into space and couldn’t get the shoulders turned a few times. Still, it was a very strong performance and demonstration of translatable NFL skills in just his 6th start at the position. His areas of deficiency are all position-related and not athletic or uncoachable. He should get better as he grows more accustomed to playing in the pivot.

He is a much better prospect that Marcus Martin, a similar type of talent last year who went in the third round, both farther along technically and better at mano-a-mano combat. Erving is the unquestionable top center in this draft class and has the potential to be a Pro Bowl performer before the end of his rookie contract. There is always inherent risk with projecting continued development like that, but Erving is worth the investment in the second half of the first round.

Current projection: 20-40 overall pick

P.J. Williams--the Seminoles have a long history of producing NFL cornerbacks, though the results lately haven’t been up to the Deion Sanders/Terrell Buckley standards of a glorious era gone by. Fortunately for Williams, he shares more in common with the better recent products like Xavier Rhodes than the disappointments like Patrick Robinson.

Williams has the length at 6’ and a sturdy 196 pounds, and his speed is gracefully fast. Others are more fluid but Williams is no stiff, and an economy of motion helps his quickness in reacting to the play. There is very little wasted motion or false steps to his game. Those attributes also help him maximize his functional strength, which is very impressive and makes him a very good press-man prospect. Williams is adept at playing off the route release even when the jam is more of a token, as seen on this play against Louisville’s Devante Parker, a surefire first-rounder:

Even though Parker gets the inside release he wants, Williams sticks right on him and makes the play on the ball on the quick slant. This is important because the NFL loves to attack bigger outside corners with routes just like this, and Williams showed this sort of ability consistently. In this game Williams was visibly bothered by a hamstring issue, too.

He’s at his best in the red zone, where his combative nature and strong anticipation against the run really come to the surface. He’s one of the best collegiate corners in recent memory at crashing the short-yardage run from the edge. Williams also consistently positions himself properly on fades and has the quick reactions to make plays on back-shoulder attempts.

There are struggles when Williams is asked to play more passively off the snap. He’s not as instinctive as other corners and relies on reading the receiver instead of anticipating. That’s harder to do when already giving a bigger cushion. Because he is more of a reactionary cover man on longer routes, he doesn’t always locate the ball well either. In that aspect he reminds me some of Johnathan Joseph. Williams projects with the potential to be a little better than Joseph--a perfectly solid starting NFL corner--because he is longer and a half-step quicker in his reactions. He is one of the few players in this draft who I believe will be selected right where he belongs…assuming the current projection holds true.

Current projection: 25-40 overall pick

Rashad Greene--Greene is a wideout who I rated quite highly entering the 2014 season. I loved his footwork, body control and slipperiness in space from his sophomore and junior campaigns. His track record of production was phenomenal, leading the Noles in receptions in each of his first three seasons.

Greene turned in his most productive campaign in 2014, catching 99 passes for over 1300 yards. He was the only Seminole receiver consistently able to create separation on his own. So why has my overall opinion of Greene fallen?

There are a couple of factors. First is his ability at the catch point. Greene is smallish at 5’11” and 182 pounds, and his frame is slighter than ideal. When he’s open it’s not a problem, but in contested situations Greene struggled to secure the catch. He also fails to present himself as a big target well, showing a smaller catch radius and less physicality with the ball in the air than expected.

Secondly, I’m not sure exactly what role he plays in the NFL. In college he was at his best playing outside and running intermediate routes, but that is the realm of bigger/stronger wideouts at the next level. He’s certainly got the quickness and route running ability to play in the slot, but that’s where he will (likely) be matched up against quicker, niftier corners. Greene fared much better in college abusing longer, less lithe corners than he did facing the pugnacious smaller/quicker players who man the slot in the NFL. I have little doubt he will be able to adjust and still get open, but it won’t be as dramatic or long-lasting as it was for FSU. That role also calls on him to block more frequently, and that is most definitely not Greene’s strong suit.

He’s a professional route runner and by all accounts a tremendous locker room presence. Greene broke school records for productivity at a storied program, and that matters too. I think he can be an effective inside receiver who can also line up wide and get used as a field-stretcher to exploit matchups. He’s not going to be a star like I thought last summer, but I still like Greene as a late 3rd/early 4th round pick who can carve out a nice niche in the NFL a la Jeremy Kerley.

Current projection: 5th round

Eddie Goldman--the first time I really focused on defensive tackle Eddie Goldman was during the Louisville game, as the Cardinals run a NFL-style passing offense. I knew from watching prior games that Goldman could hold his own as a run defender, but I wanted to see him attack as a pass rusher against a more sophisticated aerial attack.

In that context, Goldman had a mixed bag. Early on he got near the QB twice, both times by overpowering the blocker with a straight bull rush. He was routinely neutralized as a run defender, primarily because he had no ability to shed a block or seeming desire to do so. The notes I scribbled down repeatedly in this and other games (Florida, Clemson, Virginia, Duke in ‘13) is that Goldman has “slow hands”. He can also be slow to locate the ball, as seen on this touchdown run by Michael Dyer:

Yet as the game wore on, Goldman picked up his play. He got more enthusiastic about using his hands and shedding blocks. He becomes more urgent off the snap and his pad level and foot frequency both get better. This is the guy being heralded as a first-round pick and one of the best interior forces in the nation. When the motor is hot, Goldman is a very good player.

Alas, the motor often lacks combustion. In the Virginia game he was way too content to just dance with the blockers. He’s exposing his chest to blockers and not using his hands to counter or break free, and he displays zero creativity as a rusher. If Goldman is playing the nose and the design is to eat blockers and free teammates to make plays, that’s fine. But this happened when he was lined up at the 3-technique (the attack dog position). The Duke game from the prior year was much the same, a contest where Goldman did not register a tackle or a QB pressure despite Duke being in obvious passing mode most of the game.

Questionable motor and unrefined technique are both significant drawbacks for me as an evaluator. It’s easy to say a new environment and “better coaching” will iron out those issues, but that is a very dangerous presumption. Because of that, I wouldn’t touch Goldman before the top of the fourth round with the tacit acknowledgement he could make me look foolish if he lands in the exact right situation. I’m not taking that risk, but someone will.

Current projection: 2nd round pick 

Mario Edwards Jr.--The son of a former NFL cornerback and once one of the most heralded recruits in the nation, Edwards has proven enigmatic in his career in Tallahassee.

At his best, Edwards is a bull in an interior china shop. Take the very first play against Clemson; Edwards is lined up at RDE and immediately knifes inside the LT, clearing his shoulders and hips quickly through the gap and then slamming into Cole Stoudt just as he throws the ball. It’s a savvy move executed with great athleticism. He dominated the BCS Championship game against Auburn following the 2013 season, too.

Yet he completely disappears for extended periods; he had 8 games in his final season where he failed to record a play behind the line of scrimmage, paltry production considering how often FSU was playing with a lead. The hefty weight gain certainly played a part in the loss of production, but even at his lighter weight (and he’s back to 276 now) he was never a quick guy. Edwards instead relies on his great physical strength and solid football IQ to succeed.

A decent Combine showing and promise of versatility augment his draft value higher than what the majority of his game tape suggests. Edwards can play LDE in a 4-3, 5-technique DE in a 3-4, heavy rush OLB a la Pernell McPhee or even 3-technique inside rusher in nickel packages. The question will be if he can play any one of those successfully. I wouldn’t risk more than a 3rd round pick trying to find out, but I doubt he lasts to the second half of Round 2.

Current projection: Top 50 pick

Ronald Darby--cornerbacks built like Darby who can run like Darby from a major program like Darby typically don’t last long in the draft. He posted ridiculous speed and explosion numbers at the Combine: 4.38 40-yard dash with a 1.47 10-yard split, 41.5” vertical, 6.94 3 cone drill, 10’9” broad jump. Very impressive metrics for a 5’11”, 185-pound muscular athlete, albeit one with short arms and small hands. That’s to be expected for a former track star. He even competed internationally as a high schooler and won a gold medal.

The issue has been Darby often looks like a great athlete but not necessarily a football player. That is especially true as a tackler, where he just doesn’t show much testicular fortitude or technique. He’s an arm-tackling diver and pusher, not a hitter and certainly not a wrapper. It’s strange because he does show decent physicality when pressing in coverage. It almost makes you question why he isn’t playing wide receiver a la similarly built and speedy Devin Smith from Ohio State. Then you watch Darby try and pick off a pass and the small hands and lack of hand-eye coordination rear their ugly heads and you’re back to Darby as a corner.

Fortunately the most important aspect of playing cornerback is covering wideouts, and Darby does a pretty solid job here. He breaks smoothly and quickly, clicking and closing with above-average litheness and looking comfortable moving in space. Darby is smart in ascertaining what the offense is trying to do, showing good situational awareness and not being fooled by motions or exotic formations. He’s much better playing inside technique and having the boundary as a helper. Again, the lack of desire for contact seems to kick in if Darby has to venture too far towards the middle of the field and his aggression level wanes. He’s much more prone to grabbing jersey and mis-stepping too.

There is a minor off-field flag (he was involved to some degree in the Winston assault travail), but nothing to keep him from being drafted in the first two rounds. I wish his game film was a little better-rounded. The lousy tackling, propensity for obvious grabbing and struggles inside the hashes are legit concerns that he will have to work at, but they are coachable to some degree. And NFL coaches are going to want to work with his athleticism.

Current projection: 15-30 overall pick, and those numbers are not chosen arbitrarily…

Josue Matias--a few years ago I described an offensive guard prospect as “built like a refrigerator with the mobility of one too”. I’m going to recycle that comparison with Matias, FSU’s heavy-footed behemoth of a left guard. He stands 6’6” and a beefy 325 pounds, with thick legs and powerful shoulders. In terms of upper-body strength, he’s at or near the top of the class.

Unfortunately Matias has some technical flaws which prevent that power from being used to its maximum effectiveness. He plays back on his heels and without much knee bend far too frequently, notably in pass protection. It negates his power and leaves him vulnerable to any rusher with either lateral quickness or really strong hands. Matias tries to compensate with surliness and through-the-whistle effort, and that serves him quite well as a run blocker.

Because he is an impressive run blocker and can get up the field nicely, there is a place for him in the NFL. He can carve a niche like the aforementioned prospect--Manny Ramirez, then of Texas Tech and now a starting center and right guard for the Denver Broncos. It took some time before Ramirez settled into being an acceptable starter, and that could be true with Matias as well. Put him where he never has to move more than half a step laterally and can pop defenders in the run game and he can be an acceptable starter at guard.

Current projection: 5th round 

Tre Jackson--the right-side counterpart to Matias, Jackson is a player who was a better prospect as a sophomore than as a junior and then again as a senior. His weight went up while his agility and stamina went down. When the FSU offensive line was struggling early in the season, Jackson was one of the primary culprits. Teams routinely attacked him at angles, and his feet were too stuck in cement to square up his targets properly.

Jackson gets by primarily on his outstanding strength…and he is indeed quite strong. His weight room numbers had former GM Pat Kirwan buzzing at the Senior Bowl:

 

That strength shows on the field, too. When he gets square to his target and fires out his heavy paws, it is game over for the defender. Jackson can create movement in close quarters, driving power thru his hops and shoulders and clearing open paths. During Senior Bowl team drills he fared quite well doing this too, and he also was one of the best in Mobile at absorbing bull rushes. 

Jackson is the kind of player who could emerge as a really solid starting right guard if he can lose the excess poundage and work on his agility. A guy his size is never going to be light on his feet, but if he can tidy up his first step and improve his balance, there is a lot to like here. Unfortunately, the declining tape of his final two years is hard to ignore. I would be happy seeing a power-oriented running team take Jackson in the late 4th or early 5th round. He will probably last at least half a round longer than that.

Current projection: 5th-6th round 

Nick O’Leary--you might have heard--repeatedly--during Seminole broadcasts that O’Leary is the grandson of golf legend Jack Nicklaus. His lineage and his ability to make difficult catches built O’Leary into a bit of a cult classic.

As with most cult classics, if you’re not invested in the mythos it’s really not very good. I’ve never grasped “Rocky Horror” or understood the devotion to the Grateful Dead. If you’re not in the crazed mindset surrounded by fellow devotees, consuming the actual product becomes extremely disappointing. Such is the case with O’Leary as a potential NFL tight end.

O’Leary is a substandard athlete across the board. He’s sluggish off the line and doesn’t have a good top gear or any discernible wiggle as a route runner. His arms are short at under 30”, not a favorable attribute for a 6’3” player who will have to primarily serve as a blocker. His blocking is okay, technically proficient and high-effort but lacking real strength to create movement. Because he does have strong hands and understands how to play the game adeptly, he can carve out a role as a third tight end and special teams contributor. That’s not typically a position drafted before the seventh round, which is where I would first entertain selecting O’Leary, but I suspect his notoriety will tempt someone within the cult audience to snatch him perhaps as early as the 4th round.

Current projection: 6th round

Karlos Williams--if you like your running backs tall, heavy and lacking vision, Williams is your kind of guy. He’s an extremely stiff upright runner who was very much a product of the blocking in front of him. He lost his starting job as a senior after gaining too much weight and continually running into the back of his blockers. There is hope because he can catch, he is a load to bring down if he gets past the first tackler and he can plant his foot and cut hard when he gets a crease. But between the limited vision, some character issues and the inexperience of being a former safety, Williams is a tough sell in a very deep and talented RB class.

Current projection: 6th-7th round

Others who could be in camps include bubbly tackle Bobby Hart, underachieving but physically gifted WR Christian Green, OL Austin Barron and DE Desmond Hollin.