2013: 2-14, last in AFC South

2014 Over/Under:  +/- 7.5 wins

Why the over

So much went wrong in the abysmal 2013 season. It’s hard to envision one franchise suffering so many negative twists of fate befalling one team once again.

The biggest positive is the removal of Gary Kubiak as coach. The players had grown stale and complacent under his tenure, tired of hearing the same old things and running the same old plays. Kubiak lacked adaptability, and the rest of the league figured out his Texans. New coach Bill O’Brien brings more outward enthusiasm and a more demanding nature. Veterans will be challenged and the entitlement is gone. That can only be considered a positive for Houston.

Getting star RB Arian Foster back to full speed will do a lot to help fix the offense. Foster averaged over 90 yards per game and hit double figures in TDs every year from 2010-12, remarkably consistent and productive. He also averaged over 50 catches per year in that span, providing a viable threat out of the backfield that further stressed defenses. He was the central focus of the opponent’s entire linebacking corps every week.

Yet last year he struggled with nagging injuries before going on the shelf halfway through the season. While he’ll always be nursing one minor bruise or muscle soreness--he’s perennially limited in practice--he should get back to his customary 1,800 yards from scrimmage and 12-15 TDs. Fantasy owners, trust in Foster.

The Texans finally found a worthy second banana to Andre Johnson at wideout in DeAndre Hopkins. “Nuke” was impressive as a first-round rookie, pulling down 52 catches with just one drop. What impressed me is that he appeared to his a rookie wall midway through the year but then emerged from it as a more complete receiver; his blocking and intermediate route running both improved at the end of the year. Playing across from Johnson afforded him lots of isolated coverage, and he gradually figured out how to take advantage of that.

The Texans have the core of a strong offensive line. A return to 100% by Pro Bowl left tackle Duane Brown would help a lot. He’s one of the best blindside protectors in the league, and he’s also quite adept at getting out in front of Foster on edge runs and screens. A toe injury really limited Brown last year, but he is reportedly in prime shape as camp opens.

Center Chris Myers and right guard Brandon Brooks are both good starters. Myers is the consummate savvy veteran. He’s also a great run blocker on the move and is pretty consistent in picking up DL twists and interior blitzes. Brooks is more of a sledgehammer, but a devastatingly effective run blocker in tight quarters. He’s one of the most functionally strong players in the entire league. Pass protection is not his strength, but he surrendered just one or two sacks, depending on which stat service you believe.

Rookie Xavier Su’a-Filo should solidify the left guard spot, though he’s probably the best right tackle on the roster too. He and Brooks should quickly form one of the best run-blocking guard tandems in the NFL.

In Garrett Graham and rookie C.J. Fiedorowicz, the Texans have talent at tight end to replace Owen Daniels. OD was a beloved icon but the wear and tear was clearly getting to him, and his pass protection as an inline blocker was often scary. Graham isn’t as lithe, but his hands are reliable and he runs strong routes. He should top last year’s 49 receptions and 5 TDs. Fieodorowicz is a big target with soft hands and sneaky quickness in the open field, and he’s ready-made as a replacement for Daniels. Second-year talent Ryan Griffin finished his rookie campaign with a big outing and is the most athletic TE on the roster. Expect to see lots of multiple TE sets, and the Texans have the talent to make it very effective.

Defensively, J.J. Watt. Does any more really need to be said about the best defensive player in the NFL today? He’s the face of the franchise and remained wildly effective even as the team crumbled around him.

Adding #1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney puts a real fire-breathing rusher outside Watt. With Whitney Mercilus also showing some pass rushing sizzle last year, the Texans should have no trouble getting pressure on opposing QBs. Try and help too much on Watt, and now the Texans have the help at outside linebacker to make him pay. The only other time they’ve really had that was Connor Barwin’s one good year (out of four).

A healthy return by Brian Cushing inside would help matters. When he’s patrolling the middle of the field, the Texans defense raises to another level. Not only is he an intimidating presence between the tackles against the run, he’s also surprisingly lithe in coverage. Cushing can also bring the heat on the blitz too. He was sorely missed last year.

The secondary should be better. Johnathan Joseph is a solid top corner. 2013 was not his best year but he is generally reliable in coverage and can get his hands on many balls. Moreover, his veteran savvy plays well and sets the tone for the youngsters around him.

Kareem Jackson has progressed from being a major liability to being an okay corner. He’s learned how to better use his size. At safety, D.J. Swearinger should progress in his second season. The hard-hitting presence still needs some maturity and refinement. Adding veteran Kendrick Lewis from Kansas City represents an upgrade over Shiloh Keo, whose stiffness was a major liability.

I’d be remiss if I failed to mention Shane Lechler, the best punter in NFL history. His first year in Houston was not his best, but it was still among the tops in the league. Even though he’ll be 38 when the season kicks off, there is no reason to expect anything less than greatness from Lechler as he continues to build his case for the Hall of Fame.

Why the under

The most important position on a football team is the quarterback. And while Matt Schaub needed to go, the Texans are kidding themselves if they think Ryan Fitzpatrick is the man to lead them back to the AFC South title.

Fitzpatrick is smart and mobile, and he is coming off his best statistical year. In 11 games, 9 of them starts for the Titans, the Harvard grad completed 62% of his passes at 7.0 yards per attempt. Both represent career highs. Yet he went just 3-6, and no small part of that was his 14/12 TD/INT ratio and 9 fumbles. Plain and simple, he makes too many mistakes and is careless with the football.

The uncertainty surrounding Andre Johnson doesn’t help. Johnson remains a top 10 overall wideout, but he’s aging and understandably doesn’t want to stomach a rebuild. There have been trade rumors and talk that he won’t report for training camp, perhaps even holding out into the season. Remember, he’s given back money on his contract several times and should feel like the franchise owes him.

If Johnson departs, or even if he continues to succumb ever so gradually to Father Time and loses his fighting spirit playing with a subpar quarterback and little hope of a return to the playoffs, the Houston offense is really going to suffer. I like Nuke Hopkins a lot, but he’s not capable of replacing Johnson yet. And then who would replace Hopkins?

The receiving corps is thin, as prospects like Keshawn Martin and DeVier Posey just haven’t progressed into anything other than eminently replaceable parts. The team signed Mike Thomas, who wasn’t good enough to beat out a rotting collection of practice squad wannabes in Detroit last year, yet he’s got a very good chance to be the 4th wideout this fall. 

Running back depth took a hit with Ben Tate’s departure. Primary backup Andre Brown simply cannot stay healthy, making the perennially gimpy Tate seem like Iron Man. Alfred Blue and Dennis Johnson don’t inspire much confidence for the 2-3 cumulative games--at minimum--Foster will miss with his various nicks and bruises. There isn’t much depth along the OL either.

The quarterbacks behind Fitzpatrick are Case Keenum and Tom Savage. Some Houston sycophants will harp on Keenum’s great game against the Colts last year, but that was literally the only time he did anything positive in his eight starts. They all ended in losses. He’s gritty and smart but erratic and weak-armed. Savage has more than enough arm strength, and he flashed starting potential at Pittsburgh. However, he’s a 25-year old rookie who bounced around three colleges and has the mobility and internal clock of a 1982 Pontiac Parisienne. If he doesn’t have time and a clean throwing lane, it’s ugly.

Then there is the up-the-gut defense. It’s less of an issue when Cushing is in the game, but he’s missed 20 games in the last two years and has had a litany of soft tissue injuries going back to his early USC days. Even when he plays, Cushing can only do so much.

Brooks Reed is not an inside backer. He’s not much of an outside backer either, but he’s really not cut out to play solely between the tackles.

The depth all over the back eight is weak. Castoffs like Akeem Dent and Elbert Mack are likely the top reserves at inside backer and outside corner, unless late-round or UDFA rookies like Max Bullough and Andre Hal beat them out. I do hold some optimism for Mr. Irrelevant Lonnie Ballatine, a hard-hitting safety from Memphis, but he needs one year on the practice squad. Then again, if Shiloh Keo makes the team over him and practice squadder Eddie Pleasant, it’s not likely to ever happen for him…or Houston.

The lack of depth took its toll last year, and this group appears even thinner across the board. It’s an ugly truth when a new coaching staff comes in and gets rid of many veterans that are not perceived as worthy fits anymore. There will be a heavy reliance on unproven talents with limited ceilings to handle important reserve roles. Veteran defenders like Antonio “Ninja” Smith, Earl Mitchell and Brice McCain are replaced with greenhorns like Jason Ankrah, Marcus Williams and Ricardo Mathews.

Bill O’Brien is a rookie, and that will make for some growing pains. Even though he has some NFL experience with the Patriots, he’s been working with college kids recently and there is a difference. What worked in State College is not guaranteed to work at the beautiful Reliant complex. The change of culture was absolutely necessary, but getting all the veterans in line with the starkly new regime will not happen overnight.

Forecast

Houston will be better. The 14-game losing streak will be snapped rather quickly. If Foster and Cushing stay healthy and Clowney makes the immediate impact expected of the #1 overall pick, these Texans have a chance to bounce right back into playoff contention. Watt and Clowney together offers amazing defensive potential.

Yet there are deep issues here that will hold back the Texans from rebounding into playoff contender. The overall depth has taken a hit over the past couple of seasons, particularly on defense. There’s just not a lot of NFL middle class on this roster, and that’s where strong organizations thrive.

The bottom line here is that when the division rival Colts bottomed out from Super Bowl contender to 2-14, they picked up Andrew Luck and got right back on the higher horse. Houston is trying to do that with Ryan Fitzpatrick or Tom Savage. To quote the late, great game show host Jim Perry, “Oooh, no sale!”

Houston finishes 6-10, but I wouldn’t advise putting much on the under in a division with so many unknowns. The potential is there for Fitzpatrick to hit a hot streak and the defense to carry the way to 8 or 9 wins. That’s an even longer bet than the under, however.