2013: 8-7-1, won NFC North

2014 Over/Under:  +/- 10.5 wins

Why the over

The easy answer is just two words: Aaron Rodgers. The best quarterback in the NFL today should be fully healthy and motivated to atone for last year’s subpar outing. Rodgers is a perennial MVP candidate and is capable of making the brilliant play under heavy duress in crunch time.

The starting skill position players with Rodgers are impressive. Jordy Nelson might not get the fanfare, but he’s a legit #1 wideout with great speed, hands and body control. He can make the tough catch in traffic but can also turn a quick hitch into a big gain with his power and elusiveness after the catch.

Randall Cobb is a lithe speed demon with incredible shiftiness and an outstanding top gear. He’s a flash out of the slot but can also work outside or even on some running and gadget plays. He’s very slightly built so keeping him healthy is paramount, but he and Nelson together give Rodgers two great weapons in all ranges of the passing game.

Eddie Lacy shook off his bad early weight and rumbled to Offensive Rookie of the Year. He finished strong, scoring TDs in six of the Packers’ final seven contests. While he had some clunker games and must get over his propensity to run into his blockers, he’s a tough guy to tackle with his active knees and strong forward lean. Lacy also caught 35 passes, though just one traveled more than 5 yards from the line.

The offensive line is solid, arguably the best shape it’s been in with Rodgers at the helm. The key here is the continued development of left tackle David Bakhtiari. He was up and down, as expected, as a rookie but has very high potential. His run blocking is often terrible, but the Packers are paying him to keep Rodgers comfortable in the pocket and the ex-Colorado giant does that pretty well.

With Bryan Bulaga (hopefully) returning to form at right tackle after missing 2013 with yet another injury, the ends should be decent. Durability is a major issue for Bulaga, however. Still, he’s a competent right tackle when he’s on the field and will be an upgrade over his injury replacement of a year ago, Don Barclay.

The guards, Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang, are there for their run blocking. Both are adept at opening and maintaining holes for Lacy and escape routes for Rodgers. Sitton is one of the best guards in the game and at 28 he’s just hitting his athletic prime. They’ve played their spots (mostly) for several years and appear to have as much chemistry as two guards can together.

Defensively, there is some talent too. A full 16 games of Clay Matthews as the top outside rush backer would do wonders. When he’s healthy he’s a terror on opposing quarterbacks with his barrage of pass rush moves and amazing closing burst to the ball. He’s a player the offense has to account for at all times, and that frees up his teammates to get more advantageous matchups. That’s a big key to Dom Capers’ attacking defense.

The corners look pretty good on paper. If Tramon Williams and Sam Shields ever play to their potential at the same time, it’s one of the better duos in the league. A return by Casey Hayward gives them a very solid trio of playmakers who aggressively challenge the football. Hayward could be special, a legit ballhawk with excellent instincts. Williams is coming off a down season but even in that he flashed greatness at times. A more consistent season is definitely within his reach.

Micah Hyde played well as a rookie and his role is growing. He projects as the starting free safety, which takes advantage of his size and range. He’s also apt to see time as the slot corner, where he can function just fine, too. It allows them to spoon-feed first-round rookie Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. The Alabama product will be the third safety but should see ample action on passing downs.

Punter Tim Mashtay is an above-average performer, and kicker Mason Crosby finally appears over his brutal 2012 campaign. The coverage units are solid, though they must find a more dynamic kick returner.

Then there is the organizational confidence. This team expects to win, thanks to the mindset established by Coach Mike McCarthy and GM Ted Thompson. They can make some ponderous decisions but the players trust them explicitly, and the culture of winning and living up to high expectations is firmly entrenched. That’s their biggest advantage in the NFC North, outside of Rodgers of course.

Why the under

The most obvious reason is their overwhelming reliance on Aaron Rodgers to carry the offense. When he missed time in 2013, the Packers were pathetic. Matt Flynn proved why he bounced from team to team despite being given shots at starting; he’s one of the worst backup QBs in the league. This team will not win more than 1/3 of the games Rodgers doesn’t start.

Their wideout core is not as deep or experienced as it has been in recent years. With James Jones gone, the only two proven commodities are Cobb and Nelson. They’re both fantastic--each should top 1,000 yards and 8 TDs--but the rest of the corps is relatively weak.

Jarrett Boykin is the third option. He caught 49 balls last year, with 5 drops. He’s a solid possession receiver at least one spot too high on the depth chart. Rookie Jared Abbrederis figures to be the next in line. The fifth-round pick from Wisconsin has some downfield ability, but he’s quite weak (just 4 bench press reps) and thrived in college largely by outworking his opponents. That doesn’t happen in the NFL nearly as readily. Second-round pick Davante Adams put up freakish numbers at Fresno State but that was far more about the Bulldogs’ system than his own greatness. There is good potential with his size, but his speed is ordinary and his route running experience is well behind the curve. Don’t expect much in 2014.

The rest of the receiving corps is full of half-baked projects like Chris Harper and Jeff Janis. Both belong on a practice squad in 2014. I do like Harper as a red zone threat with his great size and strong hands, but he has not shown he can get any separation against NFL coverage.

Unlike past years, there won’t be much help at tight end. With enigmatic Jermichael Finley gone, the top dog is plodder Andrew Quarless. Just 3 of his 33 receptions came beyond 10 yards. He’s not much of a blocking threat, either. I don’t discount the potential for Finley to be addition by subtraction, but the Packers don’t have anyone waiting in the wings who offers close to what he did as an athletic target.

Some will say, “but Richard Rodgers!” The third-round pick from Cal has the build of Finley but little else resembling a legit NFL tight end. He’s quite raw, doesn’t catch cleanly and is not a dynamic athlete.

The running back depth took a hit with the unexpected retirement of Johnathan Franklin, who was forced from the game after just one season with a neck injury. James Starks remains capable of grinding in short yardage, but the rest is unproven. There is talent here, however, with tough DuJuan Harris and rookies Raijon Neal and Ladarius Perkins battling for a spot, so it’s a minor worry.

The much bigger worry is the defense. More specifically, the defense up the middle of the field.

B.J. Raji was one of the worst defensive linemen in the league last year. In fact, Pro Football Focus rated him dead last among 3-4 ends. He’s little more than a big guy taking up space, no matter if he’s playing end or tackle in Dom Capers’ amorphous fronts. He got little help from guys like C.J. Wilson, Datone Jones or Johnny Jolly. Veteran Ryan Pickett turns 35 in October and has already lost both burst and range. Only Mike Daniels offers much competence on the defensive line, yet he’s more of a pass rusher than a run stuffer.

Teams can get by with a porous line if the linebackers are strong, but that position is probably the biggest weakness in Green Bay. Any team that trots out A.J. Hawk, Brad Jones and Mike Neal as the second line of run defense is going to struggle badly against the run. Hawk is generally effective but overruns and misses too many tackles to be considered dependable. That 29^th ranking in yards per carry allowed (4.7) did not come by accident.

The only reinforcements the team brought in are Julius Peppers at outside backer and rookie Carl Bradford. Peppers is a 34-year old trying to make a change to a more physically demanding position after years of playing end in Carolina and Chicago. He hasn’t graded positively in run defense by PFF since 2010, and my lasting memory of him from ’13 was humdrum Lions left tackle Riley Reiff moving him around at will in both Detroit games. He will help spark the pass rush (somewhat), but he’s of little help vs. the run.

Ah yes, the pass rush. That’s another significant question mark, though a much rosier one. Adding Peppers and a (hopefully) healthy return by both Clay Matthews and Nick Perry gives the Packers a potentially strong rotation of sack artists at OLB. Matthews is one of the most dynamic defensive players in the league.

Yet there are questions with all three. As noted above, Peppers is moving to a foreign role that demands more athleticism at a time when his body is losing that attribute. Matthews has missed 9 games (4 in ’12, 5 in ’13) the last two years and did not top 7.5 sacks in two of the last three years. He’s got legit All Pro potential but has to stay on the field and top 12.5 sacks for this defense to improve. If he can play 15 games and bag 14 sacks--and he absolutely can do both--a lot of the worrying here goes away.

Perry is an even bigger injury question, having missed as many games as he’s played in his first two years. He has just 6 sacks and has not shown he can disengage once blocked. It seemed like GM Ted Thompson made a savvy move in picking Bradford as insurance, but the Packers are moving the Arizona State backer inside. It’s a curious decision that appears based more on his tweener size; Bradford is just 6’ tall and didn’t show much more than a rip move as a rusher. It might actually aid the run defense a bit, though for that to happen Bradford must cut back on the false steps and poor pursuit angles that plagued him in college.

I’m more optimistic about the outlook at safety, another area that must improve. Between moving Hyde to free safety and drafting Ha Ha Clinton-Dix from Alabama in the first round, the talent pool is significantly deeper. Still, neither has played that role in the NFL. Expect improvement but with some growing pains. As with Matthews’ health, this is a variable that could make the overall defense much better and swing the pendulum strongly into the “over” on wins.

Forecast:

The line is 10.5 wins. That seems more like a best-case scenario than a likelihood. Even with both Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews playing full seasons at MVP-caliber levels, there are enough holes on this roster that double-digit wins against their schedule would be a pleasant surprise. They open with 3 of 4 on the road, beginning with a trip to Super Bowl champ Seattle and two division games sandwiched around a visit from the difficult Jets. The non-division matchups are the AFC East and NFC South, two divisions that feature legit tests from top to bottom. Barring Rodgers being a runaway MVP and the defense unexpectedly rocketing from 24^th in scoring defense to at least 12^th, the Packers are a strong “under” bet. They finish with between 8 and 10 wins and sneak into the playoffs as the 6^th seed.