Minnesota Vikings:         

2013 RECORD:   5-10-1  

2012 RECORD: 10-6   

2011 RECORD: 3-13   

2010 RECORD: 6-10   

TEAM OVERVIEW: I have reviewed at least 35 NFL drafts (ouch), and over the years it’s been fairly easy to tell which teams are poised to move up and which will move down based on their draft tendencies.  What’s also true is that one good draft can’t always change immediate projections.  Such was the case here in Minny, where going 10-6 in ’12 raised the hopes of many, and a strong early ’13 draft made everything seem even better.  As said 12 months ago, “RB’s seldom make much of a difference but in this case NFL MVP Adrian Peterson deserves all the credit.  He singlehandedly got them the playoff spot”.  Minny entered ’12 with a + point ratio and a 4th place schedule.  They entered ’13 with my projected toughest NFL schedule (including just seven home games), the weakest QB in the Division and a 64% pass D.  It was no surprise that they bottomed out.  QB and pass D% are still areas of concern, but along with the nice ’13 draftees comes a new coach.  Recognized by myself and several others as an elite DC, Mike Zimmer finally gets an opportunity to be the main guy.  It’s a QB driven league (just check out the rule changes over the past few seasons).  If Minny gets this position right then the future might be a good one.

KEY STATS: Tough schedule or not, Minny had the 32nd and last point D so there are issues.  They allowed 20 or more points in every game until the finale vs. an uninspired Lion team.  Opponents were successful 44% of the time on 3rd downs and they allowed an NFL-high 37 TD passes.  The Minny pass D has been forever over 60% (a typical 64.7% in ’13) and has given up 99 passing TD’s the past three seasons.  The overall yardage allowed was 31st.  The offense again was ineffective through the air.  In ’12 the Vikings allowed 1,157 more pass yards than they obtained.  The # was 1,168 in ’13!  Yes, the run O was at 4.9-130 but this time there was no win compensation.  The turnover ratio was -12.  The kick return D was 31st at 27.1.  Spread-wise, Minny is 24-13 vs. the NFC East (3-1 in ’13) and 19-4 as a September dog (2-1).  They are under 40% on the road vs. Divisional foes and just 60-87 outdoors.  Road performance remained an issue.  Minny was 8-16 in road game #1, 5-24 as a December road favorite, and 7-24 in their final road game. 

2013 DRAFT REVIEW: Minny traded WR Harvin to Seattle and in the process picked up a 1st and a 7th round pick, plus a conditional 3rd round pick in ’14.  At pick #23 the Vikings altered their original thinking to select draft dropping DL Floyd.  At pick #25, they correctly looked at CB over LB and WR, since that position had fewer top level options still available.  Minny still had major needs at WR and LB and decided they did not want to wait until picks 52/83 to see what was going to be left.  They made a bold move to get WR Patterson at pick #29, giving up 52/83/102/229.  This trio of round one picks shows plenty of promise.  LB was their #1 need last year and Minny addressed this area twice, although with lower rated players.  OL depth was also addressed with lower level draftees.  WR was addressed through free agency with Jennings (68-11.8-4) playing steady football.  CURIOUS STAT: In both the ’12 and ’13 drafts Minny selected three pairs of college teammates.  More to form, 18 of Minny’s last 19 draft picks have been from BCS schools.  The 19th pick was not that far removed, coming from Conference USA,

1-23, DT  Floyd: Pure run stuffer fits best as 4-3 DT.  19-2.5 in ’13.

1-25, CB  Rhodes: Tall, physical CB might mean more man options for team in future?  48 tackles-6 starts.

1-29, WR Patterson: Raw and rare talent must mature as route runner but 45 catches and #1 NFL KR stats

4-120, LB  Hodges: 18 LB’s rated higher.  Hodges fits as a cover LB best used in open space.  5 tackles.

5-155,  P   Locke: Left-footed punter #1 in touchbacks.  Smart, but little experience kicking in the cold.

6-196, OG Baca: Smart run blocking OG can be overpowered by stronger NT’s.  Best when on move.

7-213, LB  Mauti: Strong MLB needing a redshirt year with 3rd MAJOR ACL injury.  12 rookie tackles.

7-214, OG Bond: 330+ LBS.  Plays too upright and has slow hands.  A project for sure.   With Carolina.

7-229, DT  Dawkins: Undersized, with best year in ’10.  Good 1st step.  On Tampa.

2012 DRAFT REVISITED: Minny reversed draft fortunes in ’12.  Instead of constant panic mode, the Vikings got the best of a deal with jittery Cleveland, adding rated talent.  In fact, that trade led to another trade UP for Safety Smith and the drafting of PK Walsh!  OT Kalil is a budding star.  Smith only played 8 games but had 58 tackles!  CB Robinson started 10 games and added 58 tackles to his 55 as a rookie.  WR Wright was steady at 26-16.7-3.  NR TE Ellison had no stats!  WR Childs remained on IR with his damaging knee injuries.  * rated CB Blanton was helpful with 60 tackles.  PK Walsh is 61-68 in two seasons.  14th rated LB Cole (7-210) had 45 tackles.  Only one player is gone from this deep draft.

TOP STRENGTH AND WEAKNESS PRIOR TO THE DRAFT: RB Peterson and DE Allen stood above all others on this team.  Now it’s just Peterson.  The pass D% still needs fixing. 

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES: The only significant change on offense has been losing back-up RB Gerhart.  Minnesota added former Jet OL Ducasse and that is a decent low-risk proposition.  Randall, Joseph and Wootton are in and Guion is out along the DL.  As expected, the Vikings lost stud DE Jared Allen and are expected to lose longtime DL Kevin Williams in the near future.  LB Erin Henderson was released.  CB’s Cox and Munnerlyn will join youngsters Josh Robinson and Shaun Prater with former starter Cook off to SF.  Norv Turner joins Mike Zimmer’s staff as the new Offensive Coordinator.  He’s talented, but sacks allowed under his pass formations must be reduced.  George Edwards was the Miami LB coach and is the new Defensive Coordinator.  The one concern is the new DL coach, Robb Akey.  Robb was rightfully fired as the Head Coach of Idaho in ’12 and his teams never stopped the run.  He’s never had an NFL job!

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: QB, at least 2 OL, DE, and DL depth, DB and DB depth, cover LB, extra WR.  If you have three QB’s you have ZERO!  Minny needs a new direction at QB.  LG is a need, as is RT.  RT Loadholt is a liability in pass protection.  DE Allen will be missed.  The DL needs to add more impact players.  The LB’s have to do more than take up space.  There is room to upgrade at safety and maybe CB.  It wouldn’t hurt to add another rated WR.