Miami Dolphins:         

2013 RECORD: 8-8  

2012 RECORD: 7-9   

2011 RECORD: 6-10   

2010 RECORD: 7-9   

TEAM OVERVIEW: What happened!  Miami has fielded a better than average defense for the past several years but wasn’t satisfied, allowing GM Jeff (“If our board was right, then we killed it.”) Ireland to trade away two starting LB’s and a starting CB after ’12 ended.  The defense regressed, but still performed well enough that any offensive improvement might have been good enough for these Dolphins to make the playoffs.  Unfortunately, the weak link offensively was OL, my #1 need area prior to the ’13 draft!  Miami was already sack prone (24 in games 1-5) before all their internal struggles began.  The end result was 59 sacks allowed and a home loss to the NYJ on closing day that keep them out of the 6th and final playoff spot.  We’re entering year #3 of the Joe Philbin era and both his coaching ability as well as his general oversight ability is rightfully coming into question.  Miami is just a mere 35-45 the past five years despite consistently strong defensive performances.  Perhaps they move up thanks to being housed in the AFC East but there has to be at least some worry that the defense will regress before the offense begins to jell. 

KEY STATS: Miami scored fewer than 20 points per game as Tannehill had little time to set up in the pocket and he only jelled with FA WR Wallace after week #7.  They were 27th in total offense.  The run O was 4.1 per carry but for just 90 yards per game.  The pass D% has long been strong with at least seven straight positive years but is inching up and could finally cross 60% if the team isn’t careful.  For now these Dolphins allowed just 17 TD passes.  Spread-wise, Miami is 59-91 as a home favorite.  This includes 1-3 both straight up and against the spread in ’13.  They now stand at 9 for their last 41 against the spread in this role.  They do tend to bounce back off a loss when a dog of over 7 points (15-4, but 0-0 in ‘13).  They have a pair of negative trends off back-to-back wins.  They fell to 11 of 47 as a favorite to the NYJ as a result of their final game playoff-ending loss.  They are 38-21 on road grass and fell to 11-25 on MNF, including 3-15 on the road (0-2 in ‘13). 

2013 DRAFT REVIEW: Pick #54 was obtained in trade of CB Vontae Davis.  Pick #82 was obtained in trade of #1 WR Marshall. Miami made the 1st splash on draft day when they traded w/Oakland, giving up picks 12/42 to get to #3, where they surprised the “experts” by taking OLB Jordan over OT Lane Johnson.  Jordan played sparingly as a rookie and the trade certainly looks like a supreme lack of value for these Dolphins.  Former GM Ireland lost trade value often but getting 106/109 for 82 was good value.  Unfortunately, I said last year that TE Sims was hardly value at 106 and pick 109 was traded.  GM Ireland, never one to shy away from a trade, gave up picks 109/146/224 to move up for decent CB at 93.  Was that necessary?  You had pick 82 at one time.  Why not keep pick 82 and get a better player?  Needing a WR, Miami never took one after waiting too long to draft TCU’s Boyce.  Active in free agency (with big $$$) Miami added TE Keller (IR), OG Lance Lewis (so what), WR Wallace (slow start, good finish to end 73-12.7-5), DL Martin (dud) and CB Grimes (very good at 60-4 picks).  They let Dansby and Burnett go once they overspent for decent LB’s Ellerbe and Wheeler.  They combined for a solid 219 tackles but made few impact plays.

1-03, LB Jordan: Natural 3-4 OLB lacks strength and not sure he can hold edge vs. run. 26-2 as a rookie.

2-54, CB Taylor: Perhaps not elite but smart and consistent.  Off-cover or zone CB.  Just 3 tackles.

3-77, OG Thomas: Rehabbing a torn labrum, he can play OT and OG.  Little impact thus far.

3-93, CB Davis: Raw press CB a finesse guy who bites on double moves.  Only 5 rookie tackles.

4-104, LB J Jenkins: Struggled with injuries in ’12.  Undersized but fast and strong.  An ok 17 rookie tackles.

4-106, TE Sims: 59 career catches in 39 games.  Athletic but too inconsistent.  6 starts, 6 catches (5.3).

5-164, RB Gillislee: Solid and can block, but he runs upright with little if any breakaway speed.  6 for 21.

5-166, PK Sturgis: Top PK at combine.  Low trajectory (3 blocks) a worry.  26-34, and 3-7 from 50+.

7-250, SS D Jones: Showed speed and jumping ability at Pro Day.  Played every game with 10 tackles.

2012 DRAFT REVISITED: Tannehill hit 60.4% with a 24-17 ratio.  He is still raw and a work in progress.  OT Martin’s story is very well documented.  Suffice to say he is more of a finesse blocker than a power guy.  * rated DE Vernon has performed better than our rating, going 57-11.5 in ’13.  TE Egnew was just 7-99.  RB Miller went from 51-250 to 177-709-2, and 26 receptions.  LB Kaddu is gone.  DT Randall had 8 tackles in ’12 and then was released.  Rated 7th round WR Matthews went 41-10.9-2.  

TOP STRENGTH AND WEAKNESS PRIOR TO THE DRAFT: Miami has long had solid defensive numbers, including a stout pass D%.  That % is inching up but we’ll reward their consistency again in this spot.  Their OL is currently the worst in the NFL.

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES: As of March 30th.  It’s not as large a spending spree but Miami’s main additions should help.  They’ve added RB Moreno, LT Albert, DT Mitchell, CB Finnegan and safety Delmas.  They lose OL Jerry and OT Martin, but of course losing Martin was expected.  More notable losses include DT Solari and safety Clemons.  Bill Lazor replaces Mike Sherman at Offensive Coordinator.  Dennis Hickey comes over from Tampa Bay to be the new GM.

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: 2-3 OL, WR, severe LB depth, DL depth, extra TE, extra safety, better return specialist.  The OL is a mess.  Like the Bears of ’13, this needs a total overhaul other than OC Pouncey who himself may face a suspension.  There are just three decent WR’s on the roster (Wallace, Hartline and Matthews).  Much more is needed.  The starting LB’s are fine but there is no talent on the bench.  The DL could use another rotational body.  Unless Keller is 100% TE depth is a need.  How healthy is recent free agent signee Delmas?  This unit is hardly deep.  Thigpen is an average returner.