Last Week: 12-4, pushing the season forecast to 162-78

As the season ends, I change things up just a bit with the final forecast. Because so many teams have varying motivations behind their games, it’s damn near impossible to accurately read the clouds and pick winners. Week 17 is the second hardest week to forecast, after Week 1. So instead of speculating about who might do what, I take this time to honor the MVP and biggest surprise of the season for each team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons:

Bucs--MVP: RB Doug Martin. The rookie more than lived up to his first-round billing, tearing off over 1000 yards and showing a great blend of strength, elusiveness, and speed. He also finished third on the team in receptions.

Biggest surprise: Daniel Te’o-Nesheim playing reasonably well at defensive end. He was cut from the Eagles practice squad, but the Hawaii product stepped into a big injury void and proved he belonged. His run defense stepped up considerably even though he didn’t do a lot as a pass rusher.

Falcons--MVP: QB Matt Ryan. A lot of people consider the great weapons at his disposal and think Ryan has it easy. I see it the other way; keeping all those guys happy is no easy task, but Ryan does it with great poise and a killer instinct that elevated his whole team.

Biggest surprise: John Abraham once again bagging double-digit sacks despite his advancing age and very little complementary pass rushing assistance from anyone else. He’s still got it!

Falcons 37, Bucs 20

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills:

Jets--MVP: CB Antonio Cromartie. When Darrelle Revis went down, Cromartie stepped up. He was arguably the best corner in the AFC, as teams avoided him as if he were, well, Revis Island. That he handled the role and the chaotic season without snapping also counts as the biggest surprise for the Jets.

Biggest surprise: Aside from Cromartie’s stellar play, the strange invisibility of Tim Tebow. For a team as lacking in offensive punch as the Jets, you would have thought that sheer desperation dictated Tebow get a bigger role. Not that you would know Tebow was essentially not part of the team from the media coverage.

Bills--MVP: K Rian Lindell. It was that kind of year in Buffalo. CJ Spiller probably deserves it but Lindell was outstanding and that merits recognition. He missed one FG all year, though his kickoffs were a problem.

Biggest surprise: Rookie CB Stephon Gilmore needed precious little adjustment time before emerging as one of the best cover men in the league. I shouldn’t be so surprised as he was a first round pick, but I wasn’t that high on Gilmore coming out of South Carolina. I knew he could play, just not this well this early. 

Bills 20, Jets 16

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals:

Ravens--MVP: RB Ray Rice. Hey Diddle Diddle, Ray Rice Up the Middle. The Ravens’ befuddling usage of Rice got Cam Cameron fired, but when they got him touches they won a lot.

Biggest surprise: Cary Williams taking the proverbial next step at corner. His numbers look almost identical to 2011, but Williams was much better in coverage and played with the confidence to show it.

Bengals--MVP: DT Geno Atkins. His 13 sacks are outstanding for a DT, but Atkins provides more than pass rush. I’ve said it before but it bears repeating: Geno Atkins is the best player in the NFL you never hear about.

Biggest surprise: BenJarvis Green-Ellis breaking off several long runs but struggling badly in short yardage situations. The converse has been true even dating back to his college days at Ole Miss.

Ravens 17, Bengals 12

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions:

Bears--MVP: CB Tim Jennings. His eight interceptions and 19 PDs both led the league through 12 games, and the Bears lost all three games in which he sat out (he was hurt early in the Seattle loss Week 13). Chicago missed his aggression against the run almost a much as they did in coverage.

Biggest surprise: The tremendous decline of the return units. If you’re looking for a reason why the Bears fell off besides the OL and injuries, consider they rank 31st in kick return average and 26th in punt returns, and they have the most kick returns by percentage that failed to make it past the 25 yard line. For this team with such perennially superlative special teams, that’s a stunning fall off.

Lions--MVP: WR Calvin Johnson. Anytime you shatter a record held by the greatest player ever to play a position, that pretty much speaks for itself. If the Lions were a playoff team, Megatron would merit serious consideration for league MVP.

Biggest surprise: Joique Bell playing well as his role increased in the offense. The running back showed toughness and versatility, often outplaying Mikel Leshoure and ensuring he will be a bigger part of the offense going forward.

Lions 31, Bears 30

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants:

Eagles--MVP: WR Jeremy Maclin. Despite the struggles at quarterback and up front, Maclin went about his business and led the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns.

Biggest surprise: When Jason Peters went down before the season started, most expected the OL to struggle. But “struggle” doesn’t do justice to the egregiousness of this unit. It ruined their offense to the point that the team is very lucky to have more than one win.

Giants--MVP: RB Ahmad Bradshaw. By and large, when Bradshaw was healthy and playing well the Giants were unbeatable. When he was out of the lineup or slowed, the entire offense ground to a halt. I’d give it to Victor Cruz but he’s got an alarming amount of clunker games and untimely drops.

Biggest surprise: The inexplicable decline of Eli Manning. The Giants have lost five of seven down the stretch and Eli’s poor play was the major factor in four of those losses. He’s been less accurate and less poised than the Eli with the two Super Bowl rings. A shuffled OL hasn’t done him any favors, but Eli has proven once and for all he is not Eli-te.

Eagles 28, Giants 27

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints:

Panthers--MVP: QB Cam Newton. With apologies to Luke Kuechly, no player has more to do with Carolina’s abysmal start or torrid finish than Newton. He will throw for over 3800 yards and rush for more than 750, with a TD/INT ratio that makes Andrew Luck look like Mark Sanchez, but the national media has run with the story that Cam has been a bust this year. Since Week 9, only Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, and Russell Wilson have a higher QB rating.

Biggest surprise: The emergence of DE Greg Hardy, not just as a double-digit sack guy but a fiery, vocal leadership presence. I wrote about this a couple weeks ago, but anyone who dealt with Hardy leading into his draft must pick his jaw off the floor for such a radical change of character.

Saints--MVP: QB Drew Brees. He’s likely to throw for 5000 yards, but Brees did not have a great season by his standards. Still, his ability to manage the wide open offense with a barrage of personnel is impressive. He’s also the most identifiable leader of any player on any team, trying to lead his entire franchise through the chaos they brought upon themselves with Bountygate. Punter Tom Morstead had the best year of any Saint, however.

Biggest surprise: The lack of running production that sputtered all season. The RB-by-committee is better in theory than practice in New Orleans. Mark Ingram is a rhythm runner who cannot get in a groove, and Darren Sproles only getting 45 rushes is criminal misuse. They had trade offers to move Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory, and Sproles early in the season but held firm. There is way too much talent for this group to get so few legit chances, particularly Ingram and Sproles.

Panthers 38, Saints 33

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts:

Texans--MVP: JJ Watt. He just might be having the greatest season ever for a defensive lineman. For a 5-technique end to lead the league in sacks, tackles for loss, and rank in the top 10 in PDs, that’s unreal. He is the Defensive Player of the Year without question, and he sets the tone for the whole Bulls on Parade defense.

Biggest surprise: The resurgence of Andre Johnson. Like many, I thought the hobbled version that missed 12 games the last two years was going to be the norm for Johnson going forward. I certainly doubted he could top 100 catches and threaten 1500 yards (he sits at 1457) with no viable second option to ease pressure.

Colts--MVP: WR Reggie Wayne. Andrew Luck gets all the credit, but Reggie Wayne has put up an amazing season. 102 catches, 1315 yards through 15 games are serious production, but what really earn it for him is his willingness to return and bridge the gap between Manning and Luck. It sent a message that he believed, and that permeated the whole team.

Biggest surprise: All the come-from-behind wins. It’s not just the QB that is young on this team, and for so many precocious players to so consistently overcome adversity and pull off improbable wins. Doing with an unexpected coach makes it even more astonishing. Watch them do it in this game too.

Colts 27, Texans 23

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans:

Jaguars--MVP: LB Paul Posluszny. Only because I have to pick someone and because it can’t be the punter, although Bryan Anger had an outstanding rookie year.

Biggest surprise: Cecil Shorts performed better than expected, but I thought he was poised to break out. The inability to generate any sort of pass rush despite having some solid individual talent in the defensive front is staggering. Jeremy Mincey & Co. are better than they showed, or rather should be better.

Titans--MVP: LB Akeem Ayers. The second year backer from UCLA improved across the board and became one of the better all-around LBs in the league. Ayers is the one guy opposing offenses worry about on the Tennessee defense. He led them in tackles, sacks, and will likely finish second in PDs.

Biggest surprise: The strange usage of 1st round pick Kendall Wright. He was one of the best vertical threats in college football, yet his YPC of 9.5 is lower than many plodding tight ends. For a guy who was supposed to fit perfectly with Jake Locker’s downfield arm, they sure didn’t try it even though the offense often struggled. I’m also surprised the entire coaching staff wasn’t fired when OC Chris Palmer was shown the early exit.

Titans 25, Jaguars 12

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers:

Browns--MVP: RB Trent Richardson. Even though his yards per carry of 3.6 is low, Richardson brought legitimacy to the running offense. His 11 rushing touchdowns speak to his value, but what cements this honor is that he also led the team in receiving. Richardson should get to 1000 yards for the season.

Biggest surprise: Undrafted rookie LB Craig Robertson not only made the team, but will wind up second in tackles and by the end of the season was the best cover backer in the AFC North. He’s come a long way from North Texas.

Steelers--MVP: LB Lawrence Timmons. In a year where the lineup on both sides of the ball was constantly shuffling due to injury, Timmons was the steadying force of the defense.

Biggest surprise: The late-season fracturing of the team. I predicted an off year for the Steelers as a whole, but I have been stunned by how the seams are fraying. Mike Tomlin is a no-nonsense coach who both emanates and commands respect, but that has not been evident the last month as fingers have been pointed and dissention more open. That is not the Steeler way.

Steelers 19, Browns 3

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings:

Packers--MVP: QB Aaron Rodgers. He’s had bouts this season where he hasn’t been “Godgers”, but the reigning NFL MVP is still in command of an explosive offense. When he’s sharp, the Packers are unbeatable, period.

Biggest surprise: Mike McCarthy sticking with God-awful kicker Mason Crosby. He’s having one of the worst seasons for a kicker in the past 25 years and is the biggest vulnerability to the Packers Super Bowl quest. For a guy with such a quick hook for struggling linemen and running backs, his dogged loyalty to Crosby is ponderous.

Vikings--MVP: RB Adrian Peterson. On a team with QB play that went from passable to awful from week to week, Peterson will churn out 2,000+ yards and follow a very good line to the brink of the playoffs, if not qualifying with a win in this game. It’s one of the most impressive seasons you’ll ever see.

Biggest surprise: Astute readers will recall that I predicted the Vikings would start 6-2 but then fall off and finish 8-8. The falloff came but they persevered and stayed in the playoff picture, showing gumption and resolve I didn’t believe they had.

Packers 28, Vikings 20

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos:

Chiefs--MVP: RB Jamaal Charles. Rushing for close to 1500 yards on a team as bad as this deserves lauding. He’s the one keeper on an offense that threw in the towel months ago.

Biggest surprise: The overall, across-the-board failure of the team to show any sign of competitiveness. This just might be the most underachieving team this side of Philadelphia in recent memory. For a team that rallied around Romeo Crennel so hard last year to give up on the head coach this year is really troubling.

Broncos--MVP: QB Peyton Manning. He proved worth all the commotion, coming back with the vengeance we all knew in his Indy days. The switch from Tim Tebow to Manning is like going from eating Spam behind a burned out diner and dining on filet mignon in a high-priced steakhouse…for breakfast. He’s a legit league MVP candidate. Von Miller would win Defensive Player of the Year in most seasons, but that’s not even good enough to earn the honor over Manning.

Biggest surprise: Manning’s ability after coming off three neck surgeries and a year off, with a new offense in an outdoor environment. I knew that if he actually came back that Manning would be good, but he was better than in his last couple of Colts years. Incredible.

Broncos 30, Chiefs 3

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots:

Dolphins--MVP: DE Cameron Wake. His 15 sacks and consistent pressure off the edge helped make the Dolphins D respectable and aided the backside coverage. Sean Smith had a good year at corner as well, but Wake helped.

Biggest surprise: Ryan Tannehill was more ready than advertised to take the helm of the offense. The first round rookie was widely panned as a reach by the general public, though some of us draftniks knew the talent was there. But that it was evident so quickly surprised even his biggest advocates.

Patriots--MVP: QB Tom Brady. Does that really need an explanation?

Biggest surprise: Losing to Arizona. Even though the Cardinals were hot at the time, this is as inexplicable as Kansas City knocking off the unbeaten Packers last year. In the distant future people will peruse the 2012 season and wonder how in the world this happened. 

Patriots 36, Dolphins 20

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers:

Cardinals--MVP: CB Patrick Peterson. In the early season glory days, Peterson was excellent at making plays and locking down opposing wideouts. Like the rest of the team, his play fell off some but Peterson continued to be a bright spot on a dark cloud.

Biggest surprise: Everyone knew the QB situation was problematic, but to go two months without a touchdown pass when you have Larry Fitzgerald and some decent ancillary receivers is unfathomable in today’s pass-happy NFL. The blind squirrel eats better than the Cardinals throw the football.

49ers--MVP: LB Navorro Bowman. It’s not so much for the gaudy tackle numbers, though averaging almost 10 per game is impressive. This was the season where Bowman clearly surpassed Patrick Willis as the alpha dog on the league’s most consistently formidable defense. His ranginess and fundamental soundness are non pariel.

Biggest surprise: Given their issues with returns, it’s surprising it took until December for rookie dynamo LaMichael James to take over. The speedy Duck provided a late-season boost to the offense. I guess the surprise is that Jim Harbaugh showed such patience in keeping him on the sidelines.

49ers 26, Cardinals 6

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers:

Raiders--MVP: TE Brandon Myers. He emerged as the one consistent offensive weapon for Oakland, though a lot of his production came in garbage time situations. When you’re 4-11 and three of the wins are Jacksonville and Kansas City (twice), garbage time matters.

Biggest surprise: The utter inability to rush the passer. Matt Shaugnessy will lead the team in sacks and he enters the finale with 3.5 sacks. There is more talent here than they showed with Richard Seymour (for half the year), Lamarr Houston, Andre Carter, and even impressive rookie LB Miles Burris. The willingness to stick with a scheme and attack that clearly weren’t working might haunt Coach Allen.

Chargers--MVP: S Eric Weddle. I don’t quite get the cult worship following Weddle has with the advanced stat crowd, but he was far and away the best and most consistent player on an inconsistent unit.

Biggest surprise: The decline of Philip Rivers. After starting the season strongly, Rivers fell off a cliff from Week 3 to Week 16 when the opponent was anyone but the Chiefs. He looked like he aged 10 years during the season, losing arm strength and becoming less mobile than Bernie Kosar. Worse, it didn’t appear to bother him all that much. 

Chargers 27, Raiders 9

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks:

Rams--MVP: CB Janoris Jenkins. The rookie gave up a lot of plays, but by golly if he didn’t make a lot of plays too, for a defense that desperately needed playmakers. He led the league with three pick-sixes and was also a bulldog in run support. James Laurinaitis was the more consistently good player, but when Jenkins was hot the Rams went from being average to good.

Biggest surprise: Rookie RB Daryl Richardson winning the backup gig to Steven Jackson over the more heralded Isaiah Pead. He provided a nice spark early in the season before a couple of fumbles cost him reps, and he bears legit promise for the future.

Seahawks--MVP: QB Russell Wilson. The shortest QB in the league wasn’t supposed to make everything look this easy as a rookie. In leading the Seahawks to the playoffs and establishing them as the proverbial “team nobody wants to face”, Wilson has won over former skeptics with a winning combination of intelligence, improvisation, and natural talent.

Biggest surprise: Russell Wilson being as good as he was from the get go. Sort of makes signing Matt Flynn seem silly in retrospect. 

Seahawks 20, Rams 13

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins:

Cowboys--MVP: OLB Anthony Spencer. This seems a little crazy considering the seasons Tony Romo and Dez Bryant had, but they sort of symbiotically cancelled one another out in my mind. When Spencer played well, the Cowboys defense was very tough and they won. He sealed the deal in both the Cincinnati and Pittsburgh wins, and the Cowboys gave up 65 points in the two games he missed, both losses.

Biggest surprise: Dez Bryant blowing up. I knew the talent was there, but I questioned whether he could ever get his head on straight enough to use it. He did, and his 12 TDs and 1300+ yards helped Tony Romo to his best season, threatening 5000 yards with a big finale.

Redskins--MVP: QB Robert Griffin III. With apologies to venerable London Fletcher, who gamely held together a banged up defense full of players not even within a decade of his age, RG3 is The Man.

Biggest surprise: The way the team responded to Mike Shanahan’s widely panned “we’re playing for next year” speech when the team fell to 3-6. Redskins fans were jumping off bridges all over the DC area and the local sports talkers pilloried him, but Shanahan was crazy like a fox. They haven’t lost since. Honestly, I don’t even think Shanahan expected the move to work this well.

Redskins 33, Cowboys 30, in overtime.