Last Week: 11-5, a record I’ll happily take for an opening weekend. 9-7 vs. the spread.

Week 2 is always Overreaction Week. It’s only natural to read too much into the first real game, especially if it contradicts expectations or goes in the face of how a team played in the preseason. This is a very tricky week for gamblers, one that I advise most to keep their wallets closed. 

Looks like excellent late summer weather for most games this Sunday, which is a break for the Saints in Charlotte and the Lions in San Francisco.

Thursday Night

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: For me, the key to this game is how well Chicago can mix up their defensive looks. In the opener they played more Cover-3 and man coverage mixes and did things like moving Julius Peppers inside to bring more speed to the pass rush. They need to do all of that--and more--because Aaron Rodgers clearly knows how to eviscerate the standard, predictable Chicago defense. 

Last year, Rodgers threw eight TDs in their two games, masterfully taking what the defense gave him. In the first contest, the Bears played deeper and took away the big plays down the field. Rodgers opted for the “death by paper cut” strategy, throwing a flurry of underneath routes that left him with a poor (for Rodgers) 7.8 yards per attempt. The Bears changed things up in the second game, and Rodgers bombarded them for six completions of at least 18 yards and five touchdowns before leaving the game early.

But that was apparently a different Rodgers, and this Bears team has the ability to match Green Bay’s offensive output. In fact, with the wretched state of the Packers defense, I see this game as more of a challenge for Green Bay to keep up with Chicago, not vice versa. The Packers pass coverage remains atrocious, with frequent miscommunications compounding a very real decline in Charles Woodson’s skills and inept safety play. Clay Matthews continues to be the only effective pass rusher, save some excellent Woodson blitzes, as the defensive front got dominated by San Francisco. If Jay Cutler has time, he could put up 400+ yards with his shiny new receiver toys Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall.

This is a critical game for Green Bay. A loss here and they’re 0-2 at home, two games and a tiebreak behind the Bears in the NFC North, and losers of four of their last five games. But before this slide they had won 20 of 21 (counting playoffs), with four of those wins against the Bears. I just can’t see the Packers falling so far, so fast. In Rodgers I trust, but if he plays merely very good and not great once again he loses my benefit of the doubt. Packers in a shootout, 37-35.

Sunday Games

Sunny Game of the Week:

Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles: As my friend Sammy calls it, “The Battle For Delaware” shapes up to be an excellent battle. The Ravens were the most impressive team in the league in Week 1, annihilating a decent Bengals team while riding the emotion of the passing of late owner Art Modell. On the flip side, the Eagles were the least impressive victor of the week…on offense. Lost in the embarrassment that was Michael Vick’s 56-attempt outing was how sharp the Philly defense looked. Yes the Browns are offensively challenged, akin to a donkey in a horse race, but the Eagles D made them look even more foolish than they probably are. 

I expect some leveling to the norm by both teams. Baltimore is capable of beating anyone, but sustaining the intensity and emotion they displayed Monday night is just not realistic. Philadelphia will iron out some of the offensive kinks, though I still think Ed Reed is likely to pick Vick at least once. My big wonder is whether Joe Flacco can dial up another masterpiece, and whether he can do it against a more attacking defense like the Eagles. I’m intrigued by how well the new-look Eagles LB corps handles Ray Rice; this is a big test for Demeco Ryans and Mychael Kendricks, as Rice is arguably the best dual-threat back in the game.

Likewise, I’m intrigued by how the Ravens secondary handles the dynamic weapons on the Eagles offense. I give the slight advantage to the Ravens in that matchup of matchups, and I also (gulp) trust Joe Flacco to deliver a strong game more than I do Vick. Frequent readers know how difficult it was for me to type that sentence, and I don’t honestly believe I can say it out loud, but based on what I saw last week and Flacco playing for a new contract (brilliant decision by Ozzie Newsome to make him earn it), Baltimore gets the edge. Ravens 24, Eagles 20.

Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots: I’ll get it out of the way up front--New England is going to win this game. The interesting facet here is the 13.5 point spread. The Patriots have a rather inglorious history of failing to cover big spreads; New England has covered just three of their last 18 games when favored by double-digits at home. The Patriots have won by a touchdown or less in 8 of the last 10. Arizona has a tough defense that can generate up-the-gut pressure, a.k.a. Brady Kryptonite. They unexpectedly and definitively rallied around Kevin Kolb last week, the sort of unexpected emotional lift that can carry an underdog to a surprise game. They have this guy you might have heard of, Larry Fitzgerald…yeah, he’s pretty good too. I think Arizona gives New England enough of a game that they cover, and if they can generate a pick six or run back a kick for a TD the outright upset is not as inconceivable as Vizzini in the Princess Bride believes. New England 28, Arizona 21.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: Two division rivals that laid giant eggs in their openers face off in a contest to escape the cellar or the NFC South. It might behoove both offenses to try and run the ball, as they combined for just 23 wildly ineffective carries in their opening losses. For as much as everyone (I’m guilty too) likes to talk about this being a passing league and how teams must have dynamic passing attacks to win consistently, you have to at least threaten the defense with a competent running game. New Orleans didn’t give Darren Sproles a single handoff after falling behind early, even though the pass rush was disrupting Brees and Sproles is the sort of player who can make the first guy miss and turn a simple toss play into a long touchdown.

Carolina was even less effective despite having the highest percentage of team payroll tied up in the running game (RB, FB, and G-C-G) in the league. Ten yards on 13 carries with Cam Newton and DeAngelo Williams in the backfield is simply inexcusable. It’s also extremely unlikely to ever hit those depths again. They should be able to turn that around quickly against a Saints defensive front that was overpowered by Washington. Getting Jonathan Stewart back should help, as he has the same sort of running style that allowed rookie Alfred Morris to repeatedly gash the Saints last week, only Stewart is significantly faster.

I think it is situations like this where the Saints will really miss Sean Payton. There’s just something different about a temporary coach filling in for an interim coach that disrupts the leadership and stability of the team. It’s not lip service to say Drew Brees is an outstanding leader, but asking him to be the de facto coach on the field is probably asking too much. He looked overstressed in the opener, and the natural inclination when coming off such a humbling loss is to try and do even more. Carolina doesn’t have the kind of pass rush that Washington offered, but they have linebackers that can cover and aren’t exactly slouches in bringing heat of their own. What ailed Carolina in their opener--overconfidence, containment mistakes, fundamentals breakdown by Newton--is easier to correct quickly than what ailed the Saints--lack of physicality on both lines, communication issues in the secondary--in their loss.

What’s interesting is that the line is moving in favor of the Saints. They opened at -1 but are now up as high as -3. Normally, I follow the money but I see a lot of value with Carolina at home. Panthers throw the three points back in Vegas’ face. Carolina 30, New Orleans 27.

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins: I haven’t played Madden in a few years now, but back in the day one of my favorite features of the game was trading players from one situation into a better one and seeing if they could thrive. In that spirit, I would like to trade Ryan Tannehill to the Raiders and see what he could do with legit professional receiving options. Even without Jacoby Ford, Carson Palmer gets to throw to at least four guys who are all better than anyone Tannehill gets to target with Miami. Tough way to start a career; ask Blaine Gabbert.

The Raiders lost their opener because their long snapper got hurt and the normally astonishing Shane Lechler had the worst night of his career as a direct result. Oakland will solve the special teams issues, though my gut tells me Marcus Thigpen could break off another return in this one. The Oakland defense played pretty well considering how much time they spent on the field, completely eliminating the San Diego run game and not allowing passes over the top, the one skill Tannehill does really well already. It’s always a gamble to take a West Coast team, particularly the Raiders, to win an early Eastern kickoff, but I like the Silver & Black attack. Sebastian Janikowski goes wild on South Beach in a 19-13 Oakland win.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: During my weekly spot on the Josh Pacheco Show on ESPN Hawaii (Wed. 3:30 Central), the fabulously talented Josh asked me if this could be an upset special. As I told him, “Uhhhh, no.”  You can stream the show on their website or catch up on the podcasts there too. I hate burning the Texans this early, but this is my survivor fantasy game pick of the week. Texans 20, Jaguars 6. 

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: So the NFL has given geeks like me a fantastic new toy: All-22. It’s basically coaches tape from all camera angles of every play of every game. My first experience using it was re-watching the Browns-Eagles game, with the faint hope that I would find some positives for the Browns offense that I missed the first time. 

Much like the disturbing revelation that nude beaches are not packed with nubile coeds but in fact gathering places for hairy 50-something men and their poorly groomed lady friends, the game tape was a huge letdown. As bad as Brandon Weeden’s numbers look on paper, he was actually worse on tape. His receivers fared even more poorly on second review, unable to get separation and not running sharp routes. The offensive line was okay but not exactly a pretty picture either. The Cleveland defense was very good, but it was clear that DC Dick Jauron had spent ample time devising an opponent-specific game plan. Now he has just a week to face a very different offense, one with a quarterback that can actually read coverages and throws with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Oh yeah, the best player on the team, corner Joe Haden, is suspended for the next month. That equals a great week to use A.J. Green in salary cap fantasy leagues. If you’re bold, this isn’t a bad time to use Cincy in survivor leagues either. Bengals bounce back with a 23-10 home win. 

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: Kansas City got blown away by an Atlanta team with great offensive rhythm featuring one of the best WR-WR-TE packages in the league complemented by a strong running game. They hung tough for the first 35 minutes before a couple of costly turnovers let the game get away. Buffalo got blown away by a Jets team that took the word “inept” to new depths in the preseason, a team led by a shaky quarterback throwing to one proven receiver with no running game to speak of to ease the pressure. Kansas City gets back their best defensive player, pass rusher extraordinaire Tamba Hali, and perhaps top corner Brandon Flowers as well. Meanwhile, Buffalo lost top offensive threat Fred Jackson and #2 receiver David Nelson. That’s a confluence of events that makes the Chiefs an easy pick, even on the road. Chiefs 30, Bills 17.

Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts: The Vikings have to have great confidence after an improbable overtime win in their opener, coming from behind in the closing seconds to force overtime and then winning on the leg of rookie kicker Blair Walsh. I’m forever transposing Walsh with Blair Warner from “Facts of Life”, the apple of my eye in my formative years. I see she is now on the latest edition of the insufferably exhausted series “Survivor”. I’m tempted to watch, but I’ll spend my time watching Walsh kick three field goals as the Vikings slice and dice what might be a historically bad Colts D. Vikings 31, Colts 20.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants: Good litmus test for just how valid the Bucs revival truly is early on. I liked what I saw last week at home in beating a sloppy Carolina team. I especially liked the heavy workload for rookie running back Doug Martin, a versatile weapon that can give the Giants fits too. They got great play from another rookie, LB Lavonte David, as well. But going on the road against the defending champs is a real challenge for Greg Schiano’s young team. Sometimes you really just need to not overthink these things, too. Is it realistic that Tampa Bay can be 2-0 and the Giants 0-2, with both losses at home no less? I just cannot see that happening. New York 27, Tampa Bay 20. 

Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams: I watched every snap of the Rams’ heartbreaking opening loss to Detroit twice, and I’ve come to two conclusions about the Rams. First, they are legitimately good at pass defense. Their coverage on Calvin Johnson & Co. was better than any unit I saw face off against Detroit all last year. That’s going to present a challenge for Robert Griffin III and his merry band of wideouts, who don’t have the pass protection up front that the Lions did. 

Secondly on the Rams, their own offensive line just might be the worst I’ve ever seen. Once starting LT Rodger Saffold went down with a scary neck injury, however, the Rams offense finally acquiesced to common sense and started getting the ball out of Sam Bradford’s hand very quickly. As good as Washington’s D held up against Drew Brees, they struggled containing the quick-hit pass plays.

Washington is in a perilous spot here. I worry about overconfidence. I worry about RG3 facing an opportunistic secondary, even though all three INTs they got last week were completely on Matt Stafford rather than good play by the Rams themselves. I worry that Steven Jackson gets untracked and gashes the middle of the defense. But I worry a lot more about the Rams’ ability to keep Bradford upright and his ability to find receivers who can beat even pedestrian coverage. In a low-confidence pick, Washington 20, St. Louis 17.

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks: Dallas did a great job snuffing out momentum and rising to the occasion at New York last week. Now they are well-rested but face a very different kind of challenge in the Seahawks. How they fare here depends on how well the coaching staff adjusts from a familiar opponent to a completely different animal. 

Russell Wilson is a very different kind of quarterback than Eli Manning. He likes to roll the pocket and extend plays with his legs, and he has the ability to tuck and run that Eli can only dream about. This ability places a great burden on the safeties and inside backers, and it is incumbent on DC Rob Ryan to keep Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, and Barry Church in position to contain Wilson. Lee and Carter in particular have the ability to shadow Wilson without sacrificing short area coverage, but in the past Ryan has gotten too enamored with heavy blitzes and exotic zones and traps that push those players into different responsibilities. 

Attacking Seattle’s defense is also a different game plan. New York struggled to keep healthy bodies on the field in the secondary, but the Seahawks are loaded on the back end with size and talent. They can also bring some heat off the edge with Chris Clemons. As impressive as his coming out party was, I need to see Kevin Ogletree do it again before I’m a believer, and this Seattle secondary presents a stiff challenge for him. I see this as a natural letdown game for Dallas and a desperation game for the Seahawks, who know what it means to fall too far behind in the standings too early in the season. Seattle wins 26-20. 

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers: Not a marquee game, but this is a real tough forecast. Tennessee gets Kenny Britt back, but Jake Locker is iffy with a bad left wing. If the Titans don’t clean up the pass coverage issues, Philip Rivers could have a monster game. So could Antonio Gates, who looks revitalized and healthy. Tennessee had real trouble in coverage transition zones. They also had major issues running the ball, as Chris Johnson once again looked tentative and more interested in self-preservation than attacking the defense. That style will not work against Donald Butler and the solid Chargers linebacking corps. There’s also a history angle in this one: San Diego has never lost to the Tennessee Titans. The last franchise victory for Tennessee in this series came when they were still the Houston Oilers. If CJ2K gets going and the defense can figure out how to pressure Rivers into mistakes, I like their chances to end that inglorious drought, but my degree in history tells me not to fight the forces of inevitability. San Diego 33, Tennessee 28. 

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers: My brother Ryan and I have engaged in some epic games of Stratego over the years. He typically winds up winning, and one of his favorite taunts is to proclaim “I am the hot knife and you are the butter”. But on one occasion where I took out his marshal, spy, and both colonels very early, I got saucy and retorted, “Looks like your knife went cold and my butter turned into rock”. 

I think that is what is going to happen to the Jets here. Last week they were the hot knife, but the Steelers D is a rock compared to the buttery Bills. Look for the Steelers defense to get all sorts of pressure on The Sanchize, who will have to throw frequently because plodding Shonn Greene will have less than 40 yards rushing for the game. A defensive TD keeps the Jets close, but Pittsburgh answers that with a late defensive score of their own in a 20-15 Steelers win.

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers: The downside to my beloved Lions finally being worthy of primetime games is that they will always draw very difficult opponents for those games. And San Francisco is probably the worst possible combatant, a sharply disciplined, very talented team that will not beat itself. Matt Stafford prevailed last week despite only having his “A” game for the final quarter; if that happens in San Francisco, the Lions could lose by three touchdowns. I suspect the defensive improvement Detroit showed is legit, but it won’t be enough to overcome a -2 turnover margin and 50-yard discrepancy in penalty yardage. Niners 26, Lions 20.

Monday Night

Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons: There’s a good bit of coincidental timing here, as Matt Ryan reminded me a great deal of Peyton Manning in Atlanta’s opening romp over Kansas City. Now he gets to face off against the original, who was pretty darn impressive in his Denver debut. 

I’ll admit to being highly skeptical of Peyton Manning’s return. And as great as he looked in the second half against Pittsburgh, I still don’t believe he can recapture the magic completely. I think we’ll see flashes of it as we did last Sunday, but I also think the more wear and tear he puts on his shoulder and neck, the fewer we’ll see of those flashes of greatness. I realize I’m getting increasingly lonely on this island of doubt, but I’m not ready to set sail just yet. Even at his relatively declined state he’s still better than most QBs, however, and that means Matt Ryan is going to have to dial up his seemingly newfound glory again. He got lucky in facing a Chiefs team minus their best pass rusher and cover corner. The Broncos have Von Miller and the opportunistic Tracy Porter, who knows Ryan well from his New Orleans days. Still, I don’t see Denver being able to handle the troika of Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, and Julio Jones attacking all over the field. I also get the strong feeling that Atlanta sees this as a statement game, and this Falcons team desperately wants to prove they can play with the big boys on a national stage. Atlanta 33, Denver 28. 

Drinking in the Dorm Room Games

Alabama 31, Arkansas 10

Louisville 33, North Carolina 30

Tennessee 24, Florida 22

USC 40, Stanford 27

Michigan State 31, Notre Dame 24

Ohio 28, Marshall 17. Go Cats!