I've been mulling over the Conference Championship games since Sunday night, unable to determine how exactly I wanted to go about predicting who will face off in Super Bowl XLIII two weeks from now. Announcing my picks this week has been difficult for a couple of different reasons. For starters, I'm 3-5 heading into the weekend, having correctly predicted just one game in the divisional round (the Steelers over the Chargers). My record last year after all the dust settled was a scintillating 8-3, and now I'll be extremely lucky just to scratch the surface of .500 with three games left this postseason. The other reason why I've tossed-and-turned over what to write in this very space is that I'm a fan of the Eagles. Luckily my buddy Jeff Risdon, a supporter of the, gulp, Lions, hasn't had to worry about making such emotionally-involved calls this winter. I selected Philadelphia over Minnesota in the Wild Card round and projected them to lose against New York last Sunday. Needless to say, I was okay with taking a "loss" on that one. It's also hard to hear nearly everyone alive, aside from people living in Arizona and Mr. Risdon, predicting the Eagles to easily advance on to Tampa Bay. Before I end up huddling in the corner with my retro Brian Westbrook jersey on, let me get on with my predictions for this weekend's games. Philadelphia @ Arizona, 3:00PM EST Whew...deep breath... As I said earlier, everyone and their brother is picking the Eagles to beat the Cardinals handily. I, however, am not everyone and do not have a brother. We all know that defense wins championships. Heck, even pass-happy Andy Reid admitted as much this past week. That, along with the way that Philadelphia has been clicking over the past two months, is the reason why they enter Sunday's road game as a favorite. The Cardinals are probably the last team the Eagles would want to face right now because they are playing with house money, as well. For what it's worth, I picked Arizona to lose against both Atlanta and Carolina; perhaps the third time will be the charm. Yes, I'm picking the Eagles. This game is going to be much closer than people are expecting because the Cardinals have thrived as underdogs, and very few people are giving them a shot against Philadelphia. If Arizona continues to play tremendous defense, and Kurt Warner is connecting with Larry Fitzgerald and a relatively-healthy Anquan Boldin, the Cards will give Donovan McNabb and Co. fits all afternoon long. Edgerrin James will be the key factor in this game because he wasn't on the field when these two teams did battle on Thanksgiving Night. It's no coincidence that Arizona started winning when 'Edge' starred getting carries again. Even if the Eagles are struggling offensively, they can win on the strength of their defense. At times this season, their defensive unit has been more reliable offensively than the offense itself. Try weeding your way through that sentence. --Eagles 27, Cardinals 21 Baltimore @ Pittsburgh, 6:30PM EST These teams have already met twice this season, with the Steelers coming out on top both times, so they obviously know each other extremely well. Their last three meetings have been decided by six points or less, and Pittsburgh holds a 10-7 advantage over Baltimore since the 2001 season. What's in the past is exactly that, though, because Joe Flacco is a lot different than any quarterback the Ravens have had in quite some time. In fact, Flacco's numbers were very similar to Ben Roethlisberger's this season, and he's much more seasoned and has a Super Bowl ring stashed away somewhere at home. Roethlisberger: 59.9%, 3,301 yards, 17 TD, 15 INTS, 80.1 QB Rating Flacco: 60.0%, 2,971 yards, 14 TDS, 12 INTs, 80.3 QB Rating For what it's worth, Flacco attempted 41 fewer passes than Roethlisberger in the regular season. What worries me about Pittsburgh is Roethlisberger's health, along with that of safety Troy Polamalu. Big Ben was fully-cleared to play against the Chargers after suffering a "spinal concussion" against the Browns in Week 17, and went 17-for-26 with 181 yards and a touchdown in the divisional round victory. He'll need to throw more against the Ravens, who had a +13 takeaway ratio in the regular season and allowed just 81.4 rushing yards per game. The Steelers aren't too shabby on defense either, having limited opponents to 80.3 yards per game on the ground. And guess what? Pittsburgh (156.9 yards) and Baltimore (179.7 yards) ranked one-two in passing defense. I think the running combination of Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain is better than Willie Parker and anyone else the Steelers will roll out, but Roethlisberger has played in games with as much, and more, meaning as this one. It's going to be a tight, defensive battle, which means that one mistake will likely decide the outcome of the game. Pittsburgh doesn't make those kinds of errors. --Steelers 23, Ravens 19 Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: [email protected]