Last week's Wild Card predictions weren't nearly as successful as I had hoped, as I went 2-2 after a pair of horrible Saturday projections.
As badly as the Cardinals were playing heading into the playoffs, I failed to account for the rookie growing pains Matt Ryan would undergo playing his first January game on the road. He came out with his reputation as "Matty Ice" still standing, but it will be Kurt Warner facing off against the Panthers this weekend instead of the Atlanta quarterback.
Like most, I selected the Colts to beat the Chargers relatively easily. My RealGM counterpart Jeff Risdon fell into that trap, as well, which makes me feel a tad better about myself. However, executive editor Christopher Reina was adamant in his believe that San Diego would prevail, and I should have listened more closely to his argument.
Thankfully, Philadelphia and Baltimore helped me save a little face on Sunday with wins over Minnesota and Miami, respectively. Last weekend's playoff action proved that a mistake, or mistakes, can easily derail a deep playoff run.
The Vikings were unable to handle the Eagles after Asante Samuel contributed one of his classic postseason interceptions and were put away when they couldn't keep Brian Westbrook from dancing more than 70 yards to the end zone on a screen pass from Donovan McNabb.
The Dolphins, after committing just thirteen turnovers all season long, coughed up five against the Ravens on Sunday. Their defense played well enough to keep them in the game early on, but it's extremely difficult to win after handing your opponent the ball so often.
Indianapolis lost for the first time since October because of some wretched defensive penalties at the end of the fourth quarter and on the first drive of the overtime period. Even after San Diego tied the game in regulation, the Colts could have still recovered had they won the coin toss. Failing to get the ball first, which I believe would have resulted in a win, was just pure bad luck ?- another typical playoff factor.
For the Falcons, it was really one turnover too many. Ryan's fumble in the third quarter which Antrel Rolle returned 27 yards for a score was a back-breaker, but the interception Ryan threw on Atlanta's first offensive possession near midfield placed the momentum in the hands of the Cards for good.
OK, enough with the reactions, onto my predictions for the divisional playoffs.
Baltimore @ Tennessee, Saturday 4:30PM EST
I was very impressed with the Ravens against the Dolphins, and rookie quarterback Joe Flacco managed a great game, doing just what his team needed to win. He'll face a defense in Tennessee that will make Miami look like a high school squad this weekend, though, which won't bode well for Baltimore. The Ravens, themselves, have the caliber of defense that can limit the one-two punch of LenDale White and Chris Johnson, but Titans' quarterback Kerry Collins will be the difference.
Collins is a seasoned veteran and will be the Warner to Flacco's Ryan in this AFC matchup. I apologize for the poor metaphor; I simply mean that Collins will be the second ageless quarterback to send a rookie passer home this postseason. The running combination of Le'Ron McClain and Willis McGahee are somewhat of a wild card, but if Albert Haynesworth is healthy enough to be effective, the Titans will fold the Ravens like a house of cards.
--Titans 24, Ravens 16
Arizona @ Carolina Saturday 8:15PM EST
The Cardinals made a fool of me after I underestimated them heading into Wild Card weekend, but the Panthers are an entirely different beast. Their defense may have stepped up against Atlanta, but if Arizona is going to go deep into the playoffs it will be because of their high-powered offense built around Warner's arm. Carolina will pressure Warner often and be physical with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. The Falcons may have tried the same, but the Panthers have the personnel to get the job done.
Limiting DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart on the ground will be more difficult than stopping Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood. Arizona's defense impressed me against Atlanta's running tandem, but Williams and Stewart have carved up many a turkey this season. The effectiveness of Carolina's running backs will allow Jake Delhomme to connect often with Steve Smith downfield. Even if their offense isn't plowing full steam ahead, their defense is enough of a weapon to propel the Panthers to victory.
--Carolina 31, Arizona 22
Philadelphia @ N.Y. Giants, Sunday 1:00PM EST
The Eagles are the only team to come into "Giants" Stadium and defeat the defending-champions this season, and these two teams know each other better than the other divisional round opponents. The Giants are a different team without Plaxico Burress, and Philadelphia defensive coordinator Jim Johnson will look to exploit the receiver's absence just as he did in Week 14. The Eagles were also able to limit Brandon Jacobs, who was hampered by a knee injury, and Derrick Ward to just 91 total rushing yards a few weeks ago.
As hot as Philadelphia is, having won five of their last six, New York enjoyed their week off as they healed some of their wounds and prepared for the beginning of their title defense. The advantage the Giants truly have? They are facing an Eagles' team that is essentially playing with house money, similar to the way New York did during their Super Bowl run last season. The only guarantee is that this matchup will be close because neither team is going to surprise the other with anything. The key will be, who makes fewer mistakes -- Donovan McNabb or Eli Manning?
--Giants 27, Eagles 23
San Diego @ Pittsburgh, Sunday 4:45PM EST
This matchup is the toughest to predict because we won't know how well Ben Roethlisberger will play in the wake of his concussion until he's actually facing a real-life NFL defense. The Chargers haven't played great defense this season, but they have the pieces to be dangerous, especially if Roethlisberger is off a step. With that said, there isn't a more-prepared defense in the league to gut out a low-scoring contest.
LaDainian Tomlinson is a first-ballot Hall of Fame-sized question mark, and Darren Sproles is no longer a secret weapon for San Diego. Philip Rivers, whom I believe deserved more MVP consideration, can take over a game but struggled against Pittsburgh in Week 11. He went 15-for-26 with 164 yards and two interceptions in an 11-10 loss at Heinz Field. It was, by far, his worse performance of the season. Even if Roethlisberger is just average, the Steelers will have more than enough to eliminate the Chargers, something the Broncos wish they had done a month ago.
--Steelers 27, Chargers 19
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM?s Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: [email protected]
Andrew Perna writes on the MLB and NBA for RealGM.
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