The AFC has won eight of the last eleven Super Bowls, thanks to dominant teams like the Patriots, Steeler,s and Colts, and thirteen weeks into the 2008 season there are a crowd of teams fighting for supremacy in the NFL?s conference of the decade. Eight teams are above .500, but only six will qualify for the playoffs and earn a chance to bring home yet another championship for the American Conference. A lot will undoubtedly change over the final quarter of the season, but with the postseason picture starting to get sharper, it?s time to evaluate which teams are contenders and which are pretenders in a conference full of both. Tennessee (11-1), First AFC South The Titans have the AFC?s best record, but haven?t commanded the same amount of respect as some of the teams below them in the standings. Underrated even with a 10-0 record, their blowout loss to the Jets in Week 12 didn?t do anything to silence their critics. They have only defeated three teams that currently have winning records, with wins against the Vikings (30-17), Ravens (13-10) and the Colts (31-21) under their belts. With that said, all three of those teams are playing better football now than they were earlier this season. A playoff berth is a virtual lock, but their upcoming battles against the Steelers (Week 16) and Colts (Week 17) will determine whether or not they can carry their success into the playoffs. Playoff Probability: 99.9% Pittsburgh (9-3), First AFC North Mike Tomlin has a disciplined team that can find multiple ways to win, a dangerous combination for opponents as the weather continues to get colder. Their three losses have all been by less than ten points, including a 21-14 loss to the defending-champion Giants, one of New York?s closest games of the season. They have the fourth-ranked defense in all of football, and continue to pound the football on the ground (9th in the league) to great success. Having won three-straight ? with wins over the Chargers, Bengals and Patriots ? coupled with the improving health of Willie Parker bodes well for Pittsburgh?s finest heading into the playoffs. Just like Tennessee, battles with the Cowboys, Ravens and Titans to close the season will help prognosticate just how dangerous Tomlin?s crew will be when the postseason rolls around. Playoff Probability: 80% Indianapolis (8-4), Second AFC South The Colts are hotter than any team in the AFC, having won five-in-a-row to climb out of the deep hole they dug in the season?s first two months. Peyton Manning, his performance against the Browns in a 10-6 win this past Sunday notwithstanding, has looked like himself in the second half of the season, and is a threat for a hat trick on any given afternoon. They haven?t fluffed their record with wins over sub-.500 teams either, with victories against the Vikings, Ravens, Patriots and Steelers ? two of which came on the road. They still have to face the Titans, but dates with the Bengals, Lions and Jaguars in the next three weeks should allow Indianapolis to grab a firm hold of the AFC?s top Wild Card slot. With Peyton Manning on offense and a healing (slightly) defense, the Colts will be a tough out when the calendar turns to January Playoff Probability: 70% Baltimore (8-4), Second AFC North Joe Flacco has been much better than expected, which has allowed the Ravens to win games with offense for the first time in a very long time. It remains to be seen exactly how the rookie quarterback will hold up as the weather gets icy and the games carry more weight but he?s proven that the blood flowing in his veins is even icier than the precipitation this time of year. The only thing standing in the way of a playoff berth is Baltimore?s schedule, the toughest remaining of all the AFC powerhouses. They?ll face the Redskins, Steelers, Cowboys and Jaguars to conclude the season. Three of those teams are likely make the playoffs, while Pittsburgh leads Baltimore by a game in the AFC North. Assuming the Steelers win the division, the Ravens will have to hold off two of the three AFC East contenders (New York, Miami and New England) and possibly even a fourth if Buffalo goes on a four-game streak. Playoff Probability: 45% New York (8-4), First AFC East Brett Favre and the Jets have a one-game lead in the AFC East over the Dolphins and Patriots, and a rather favorable four-game slate remaining. They?ll face the 49ers, Bills, Seahawks and Dolphins ? with Miami the only team over .500 heading into Week 14. Before their surprising beating at the hands of the Broncos, the Jets had won five-straight, including a win in New England and Tennessee. They are dangerous because of their above-average threats through the air and on the ground. Thomas Jones ? the NFL?s fourth-leading rusher ? isn?t even their only elite runner. Leon Washington would probably get more carries elsewhere. Even if the Pats or Dolphins are able to catch Eric Mangini?s squad, they have a good chance at besting the Ravens for a Wild Card berth Playoff Probability: 75% Miami (7-5), Second AFC East The elementary ?Wildcat? formation has allowed the Dolphins to win games over more-talented teams (New England, San Diego) and stand neck-and-neck beside the AFC?s annual powers. With three road games left ? including trips to Toronto (vs. Bills) and New York ? they will need to play well in order to edge out New England, Baltimore and/or Indianapolis for a Wild Card slot. Chad Pennington may have the weakest arm of the contending quarterbacks, but Miami has called plays that he can handle. In addition, Ronnie Brown (690 yards and 10 touchdowns) and Ricky Williams (512 yards and 3 scores) have become one of the NFL?s best running tandems thanks to some good play-calling. Unless the Jets, their Week 17 opponent, have a playoff berth locked up and rest their starters, the chances of the Dolphins playing past December are unlikely. Their competition simply has too much of an advantage at this point. Playoff Probability: 35% New England (7-5), Third AFC East The Patriots don?t have Tom Brady, but Matt Cassel has been strong and they have already weathered the tough portion of their schedule. Dates against Seattle, Oakland, Arizona and Buffalo are left, as they look to leapfrog either Indianapolis or Baltimore for a Wild Card berth. Bill Belichick?s defense hasn?t been as strong as we?ve become accustomed to, but the rushing attack is as strong as ever and Cassel has a pair of 400-yard games under his belt. No coach is better than Belichick at game-planning, and he appears to be having more fun than ever this season with wins taking much more of an effort. My guess is that they?ll record three wins in their last four games to make the postseason. Playoff Probability: 65% Denver (7-5), First AFC West A win this weekend over the Chiefs, coupled with a San Diego loss, would lock up a division title for the Broncos. That?s how bad the dreadful AFC West has been this season. Denver doesn?t have the rushing attack we typically expect, but Jay Cutler has blossomed into quite the quarterback. The only scenario that would keep the Broncos out of the playoffs would be if they lost their next three, and we saw the Chargers go on a three-game surge. Very, very unlikely. How far will they advance once they get to the postseason? That?s another story entirely? Playoff Probability: 99.9% Andrew Perna is a Senior Writer for RealGM.com. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail ? [email protected].