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| Jeff Risdon. 16th August, 2011 - 4:00 pm
 2010 Record: 10-6
Point Differential: +23
Turnover Margin: +9
Sack Differential: -4
Offense
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 8th
Passing: 17th
3rd Down: 8th
Scoring: 20th
QB: In his second season, Josh Freeman made a major leap forward and solidified his position as both the leader of the Bucs and one of the top up-and-coming talents in the NFL. Freeman really improved his accuracy and decision making with the ball, showing more confidence in both his arm and his receivers. Built like a defensive end at 6-foot-6 and a stacked 250ish pounds, Freeman has tremendous pocket presence for a young QB. He can also move well, witness his 364 yards rushing. Offensive Coordinator Greg Olson designed plays to take advantage of the outside-the-pocket ability of Freeman, and because of his size Freeman can survey the field and shake off tacklers impressively.
Perhaps the biggest and most positive development was the emergence of Freeman as a leader and field general. The team congealed around him and Freeman embraced the leadership role. He is unflappable and preternaturally poised, and that was reflected in how the team handled itself around him. Given the cast of characters around Freeman, this importance cannot be understated. He led them to victory in tight circumstances and the team is solidly in his hands.
The backup job appears to belong to Josh Johnson. Johnson has fended off challenges before, though he has limited playing time in his four seasons. Johnson has great mobility and has demonstrated exceptional accuracy, both at the University of San Diego and last season when he completed 14 of his 16 attempts. He knows the system and the team has confidence in Johnson, who can play in the Wildcat formation as well. Rudy Carpenter gets another go around as the #3. He did not play as a rookie free agent a year ago and God help the Bucs if he has to play in 2011. Thus far they have resisted the urge to bring in a veteran backup/mentor for Freeman, and that plans seems to be working.
RB: One of the best moves of the last year was executed when GM Mark Dominik unearthed undrafted rookie LeGarrette Blount from the scrap heap. Blount found a willing and like-minded mentor in Kellen Winslow and bought into the tough love of Coach Raheem Morris, took over the starting job and wound up leading all rookies in rushing. His attacking style and high-kneed toughness were perfect fits for the Bucs running scheme. The main question is, can he do it again now that expectations are high? Count me cautiously pessimistic; I think he will still be productive and his style will at least keep him as a short-yardage terror, but I have a hard time seeing him repeat the five yards per carry of last season. His lack of skills in the passing game will limit his opportunities as well. That is no small part of how the Bucs wound up with Blount--Tennessee could not tolerate his complete inability to pass protect, and his hands are poor both as a receiver and a frequent bout with fumblitis.
The Bucs have laid all their eggs in the Blount basket, as Cadillac Williams is now parked elsewhere and GM Mark Dominik has yet to dip his toes into the free agent pool. Earnest Graham has been a hybrid FB/RB with solid success for several seasons now, and he could see more action as a runner in 2011. Graham is the kind of player that coaches and teammates love, a selfless worker and consummate professional that maximizes his skills. But he is 31 and has just 34 carries the last two seasons, where he has been the lead fullback. They will miss him in that role should he spend more time at running back.
A couple of greenhorns could help matters. Kregg Lumpkin has shown he can attack the hole and catch the ball, but he has missed almost all of the last 3 years with injuries. He is healthy and looks spry in camp, but carrying that over to the regular season is another matter entirely. 6th round rookie Allen Bradford will get a crack, though he never established himself in a crowded backfield at USC. He is similar to Graham in size and style and could conceivably make a good fullback, though he is not much of a receiver. There is a pressing need for a 3rd down back on this roster.
WR/TE: Last season the Bucs unexpectedly thrived in this group, thanks to a breakout rookie performance from wideout Mike Williams and a resurgent Kellen Winslow at tight end. Two truculent, selfish talents surprisingly bonded and proved the world wrong. Much like the similarly checkered Blount, the question bears repeating, Can they do it again?
Winslow is the key even though Williams is the more talented player. K2 is a dynamic personality that embraced his role as mentor and the opportunity he got after years of self- and team-destructive behavior. He proved he can still play, as his 66 receptions and spirited blocking demonstrated. In his two years in Tampa he has been very productive, and I buy into the maturity. I still have major reservations about his knees, however, and his ability to run after the catch is greatly diminished and he no longer stretches the seam.
Williams was the top rookie receiver a year ago and is looking to build upon his strong debut. Blessed with great size, nifty speed, and excellent body control, Williams has all the physical tools to be an elite receiver. He plummeted in the draft based on character concerns. More to the point, he quit on his team rather than face a small disciplinary action after years of warring with any and all sorts of authority at Syracuse. Williams kept his head on straight and showed how talented he is a year ago, but like Winslow during his Cleveland days, forecasting a permanent attitude change for such a notorious wolf in a henhouse is difficult. As long as he stays on the straight and narrow, the Bucs have themselves a legit #1 wideout with 80+ catch, 1200+ yard potential.
Fellow 2nd year man Arrelious Benn will be the #2 wideout, and the Bucs are looking for bigger and better things from their 2010 2nd round pick. Benn was slow to learn the offense as a rookie, then just as he was finally making an impact he tore up his knee. He should be fine by the start of the season, but Benn has never been a blazer and losing even a half-step can really hurt. He gets open by using his size and strength and using a savvy change of speeds in and out of breaks. Like Williams, he has very good hands and a wide catch radius that allows Freeman to not have to be perfect with every throw. He was an excellent blocker during his college days at Illinois and that carried over to the NFL.
After the top two, there are some real question marks. Micheal Spurlock is primarily the return specialist, but the Bucs are trying hard to integrate him into the offense more. He pulled down 17 catches a year ago and did most of his damage further downfield than you would expect from such a shifty athlete. He is still pretty green with his route running and needs to improve at transitioning from receiver to runner, which is surprising given his excellent return ability. Shifty Sammie Stroughter, a converted RB, works the slot. His production last year fell off a bit from his rookie year, and he must hold off yet another 2010 draftee (albeit a Bengals pick), Dezmon Briscoe. The Kansas product does not have anywhere near the speed or agility of Stroughter, but he is a fearless bull over the middle. He has impressed in offseason work and early in camp, and he does not lack for confidence. Still, he spent most of his rookie year saddled on the practice squad and he is another guy that fell in the draft based on character concerns and less than favorable commendations from coaches and teammates. The Bucs very nicely harnessed that cannot keep us down mentality with their skill position players a year ago and it will be interesting to see how it carries over now that they have proven themselves.
Going deeper, rookie Luke Stocker is the #2 tight end. He has good size, very sticky hands, and all the makings of a long NFL career as a complementary tight end that catches 25-30 balls a year for a decade. He suffered a hip injury over the summer that could blunt his rookie impact. Fellow rookie Daniel Hardy figures to benefit, though he is a project as a converted, oversized wideout with short arms. The Bucs are praying Winslow can stay healthy.
OL: Many onlookers predicted some changes up front, but the Bucs elected to re-sign both RG Davin Joseph and RT Jeremy Trueblood. That brings continuity to the line, not to mention nastiness. With feisty Jeff Faine at center, the C-RG-RT package might be the surliest in the league. It is also one of the best in the league at opening holes in the run game. All spent at least part of last season hurt, however, and it remains to be seen how well they come back from those injuries. Joseph is the top talent on the line but has not performed well the last couple of seasons. Some of that is schematic and some is injury-related, but this is an important season for the former Pro Bowler. His return was uncertain, and no small part of the reason he is back is that no other teams wanted him any more than the Bucs did.
Faine is the glue in the middle, a respected veteran who plays with his emotions on his sleeve tattoos. He makes up for a lack of size and base strength with very good agility and intelligence, not to mention a genuine hatred of the opponent. His intensity can get him off track at times, but he is just as effective at taking his opponent of his game as well. Yet if Faine is vinegar, Trueblood is battery acid to opponents. Annually finishing near the top 5 in dirtiest player polls, Trueblood tries to make up for a plodding gait and slow-twitch build with venom and aggression. Sometimes it works, but he is vulnerable to speed and has trouble with smaller guys getting into his pads before he can react and losing all leverage. It was surprising to many observers that they brought him back, particularly after James Lee filled in admirably (read: superior) last year. Lee plays with less passion but more technique, and his pass protection is much better. Because Freeman likes to roll out to his right, having the agility of Lee on the right wide is a nice asset. Expect the team to have a short leash on Trueblood, though the ability of Lee to play both sides does make it an attractive option to keep him relegated to the 3rd tackle role.
Ted Larsen played well at guard a year ago as a rookie, and he inspired enough confidence that he is the projected starter at left guard. He is a great example of the folly of New England hoarding draft picks; they took him in the 6th round and genuinely liked him but had too many bodies to keep him. Tampa quickly snapped him off the waiver wire and got themselves a solid starter with versatility (he played center in college) and upside for nothing. He has the feistiness the team clearly values, but also has quick feet and good football sense. Left tackle Donald Penn somehow earned a Pro Bowl bid. That is not to say he is not a good player, but more an indictment on the ridiculousness of the Pro Bowl. He is very good at kicking out and forcing speed rushers very wide, but also has the grit and sand in the pants to handle bull rushers and twist/stunt moves. Lee has battled weight and conditioning issues in the past, but he looked great a year ago and early camp reports indicate he is still in prime shape.
The Bucs have very solid depth up front with Lee and jack-of-all-trades Jeremy Zuttah, who has the ability to play any spot on the line reasonably well. Brandon Carter looks straight out of professional wrestling and plays like it, but he has enough acumen to hold a spot. Google images of his head tattoo and you will get a good indication of the type of player he is. Will Barker should stick as a 4th tackle, and if he gets cut he will find work elsewhere. Derek Hardman filled in for Joseph a year ago as a rookie and showed some real ability, particularly in pass protection. The line does have a new coach, so there could be a slight scheme adjustment.
Defense
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 28th
Passing: 7th
3rd Down: 31st
Scoring: 9th
DL: Tampa Bay has invested a tremendous amount of recent draft resources into revamping the defensive line. Last year it was tackles Gerald McCoy and Brian Price, this year it is ends Adrian Clayborn and DaQuan Bowers. All have talent, all have questions, and many of those questions are health-related. McCoy, the #3 pick in the 2010 draft, had a decent rookie campaign--3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 4 pass deflections--before a torn biceps ended his season after 13 games. The Oklahoma product is an aggressive gap penetrator and should improve upon his pass rushing stats if his arm heals. McCoy should be judged solely on his impact plays, the forced fumbles, sacks, and disruptions, more than his tackle totals.
The rookie season of Price was washed out with a hip injury, though he was somewhat underwhelming before he got hurt. His best attribute coming out of UCLA was how light he was on his feet for a big man, but that collegiate sprightliness equated to lack of base strength in the NFL and Price notched just 3 tackles in limited time in 5 games. Price is a good candidate for a strong second campaign if he is healthy, though the lockout and loss of team-sponsored OTAs hurts players like him more than any other. Roy Miller, another recent high pick (3rd round 2009), starts ahead of Price and has done little to lose the job. He is the sort of complementary player that McCoy needs next to him, a reliable, smart, lunch pail guy that does not move backwards and is not looking for his own highlights. A healthy Price and McCoy make this a very solid young rotation, but they must stay on the field.
The two 2011 draft picks will start immediately at the end spots. Clayborn will man the right side, Bowers on the left, because Clayborn suffers from a debilitating nerve issue in his right arm that limits strength and mobility in that arm. It has not impacted his on-field performance as much as you might think, though he can struggle to wrap up on tackles to his outside. He was inconsistent as a pass rusher at Iowa but has a nice package of strength moves and seldom loses his gap responsibility. He is a bit of a misfit at the premium rushing position though, and Bowers becomes a misfit on the other side as a result. Bowers is more of an athletic pass rushing specialist, a player that uses quickness and speed around the edge. Run defense is not his strong suit.
Normally with such a young unit, teams like to have a veteran mentor to show them the ropes. The Bucs have spurned that logic, as the greybeards of the line are Kyle Moore and Frank Okam, both nothing more than serviceable reserves. Okam is 26 and is not noted for his work ethic, yet he is the sagest veteran presence on the team.
LB: The Barrett Ruud era has ended, which has spawned a lightning storm amongst Bucs fans. Ruud racked up tackles at a very impressive rate, but made few plays in the backfield and failed to force many turnovers. In an effort to get more meaningful production, the team drafted Mason Foster and he will take over the spot in the middle belonging to Rudd. What is intriguing is that many of the pre-draft knocks on Foster--not real big, did not make many impact plays, more of a reactor than an instigator--are precisely why the team tired of Ruud.
If Foster is not ready, Patriots discard Tyrone McKenzie can fill the middle. Speedy and very instinctive, he is a local that the coaches hold in high regard. He would love to prove the Patriots gave up on him too hastily. McKenzie played sparingly a year ago, so replacing Ruud is no given. McKenzie can also play the Sam backer position if needed.
The outside backers will start the same as a year ago, with Quincy Black on the strong side and Geno Hayes manning the Will backer spot. Hayes is very undersized but cat-quick. His numbers stayed about the same, but Hayes was not as effective in 2010 as the year before and appeared to have more trouble avoiding blocks. Too many of his tackles came too far down the field. Black is also of the undersized-but-speedy variety, though he is neither as instinctive as Hayes nor as sure a tackler.
Dekoda Watson is the primary reserve OLB. Like the starters, his game is predicated on speed and reacting quickly without interference from blockers. That style puts pressure on the guys up front to occupy those blockers, a challenge for such an inexperienced unit. Adam Heyward could not find any other takers in free agency, so he returns for another season of special teams play, where he is pretty valuable.
Cool fact: every LB on the 2-deep is between 6-foot-1 and 6-foot-2 and weighs between 231 and 242 pounds.
Secondary: The Bucs are set at corner with the seemingly ageless Ronde Barber and solid playmaker Aqib Talib. Barber remains one of the most versatile corners in the league, a great tackler, excellent blitzer, and master of steering the receiver with sound body positioning in coverage. His best years are behind him but Barber keeps himself in amazing physical condition and has been remarkably durable over the years. The status of Talib has been clouded by numerous legal issues, but the court system has dragged its feet enough that Talib should be able to play the full season. He was excellent in coverage last year before going down with a hip injury, and Talib is one of the most aggressive ball hawks in the league. His continual off-field issues leave him in a precarious spot, however; even a minor traffic offense could be cause for the ever-patient Bucs to sever ties.
Fortunately they found EJ Biggers in the 7th round a couple years ago. The Western Michigan product wound up being a revelation at the nickel back position, displaying tremendous confidence and great footwork. He has clearly learned the art of body positioning from Barber, and his size and speed make him a difficult matchup that can play in the slot or outside. Myron Lewis will see as much action as he can earn, and could supplant Biggers with a strong camp. He showed promise as a rookie last year and showed up to camp in phenomenal shape, visibly more physically mature according to a daily observer I trust. He has great size and does not mind throwing his weight around. In a year where the Bucs play the spread-happy Saints, Packers, Texans, Cowboys, and Colts, going 4 deep at corner is more of a requisite than a luxury. Elbert Mack appears to be the odd man out after his play fell off dramatically last season, and rookie Anthony Gaitor appears to be special teams fodder at best.
Safety has been an issue in recent seasons, really since John Lynch left town, but there was progress in 2010 and hope for a brighter future. Sean Jones, playing on his third team in as many years, brought stability to the strong safety spot. He is a sound in-the-box run defender and is adept at sitting in the shallow zone on tight ends and crossing patterns. He washed out in Cleveland and Philly in part because he has poor ball skills and is prone to egregious coverage gaffes, but he tightened it up in Tampa last year. Rookie Cody Grimm was a godsend after talented Tanard Jackson earned a year-long suspension (he will not be back). Grimm is small but plays with great awareness and anticipation, traits you would expect from the son of a Hall of Famer. His specialty is chasing down receivers after the catch, which is not glamorous but remains an important attribute. The team would like more plays on the ball form their safeties, which is why they drafted Ahmad Black and will give Larry Asante more chances to earn reps. Asante is the best cover safety on the team even though he has exactly two games of NFL experience. Black was a tremendously productive college safety at Florida but has the lethal combination of being very undersized and very slow. He is a gamer though, and do not count him out.
Special Teams: Connor Barth returns as the placekicker after a season where he was flawless inside 44 yards. However, Barth was under 50% from beyond there and was only average on kickoff distance. He has range to 54 yards (his career long), and the team has high confidence in him. After an uneven rookie season, punter Robert Malone appears on the way out. The team signed former Falcons punter Michael Koenen, who had a higher percentage of punts downed inside both the 20 and 10 and fewer touchbacks despite nearly 25 more attempts. Consider this a case of a team picking up a player that torments them; Koenen has a higher career net average against the Bucs than any other team. It bears noting that the Bucs ranked one spot ahead of the Falcons in net punting average.
Micheal Spurlock fared better as a kick returner than bringing back punts, taking one kickoff to the house and nearly breaking several others. Because the team is toying with using him more in the offense, Spurlock could cede punt return duties if anyone (Preston Parker?) steps up in camp. All the youth on coverage units led to some breakdowns in containment, but there is incredible speed and more cohesion should lead to improvement.
Forecast: Last season the Bucs were a pleasant surprise, with a 10-6 record that blew away expectations. They were a terrible offensive pass interference penalty against Kellen Winslow (in the Lions game) that would have put them, and not the Super Bowl champion Packers, in the playoffs. This year the expectations are much higher, and this team has a confidence that belies its precociousness at so many key positions, including head coach. That makes them dangerous, even if they did overachieve and caught more than their fair share of breaks a year ago. If Josh Freeman can continue to improve and hold the fragile, testy personalities together, the Bucs could very well finish 10-6 once again, perhaps even adding a win or two.
But I am not a believer. Yet. While I greatly respect Freeman and I see a bright future, I also see a team primed for a regression in 2011. The incredible lack of experience in the defensive front seven is very problematic. The volatility of guys like K2, Aqib Talib, Jeremy Trueblood, Mike Williams and Legarrette Blount leaves me very skeptical that the dinner table remains civil for another year. They remind me a bit of the Bengals of recent vintages, a team that collects lots of troublesome talents and hopes they can behave long enough to win. That can work for a few weeks, but asking it to last two years is pushing it. There is too much talent to fall far, and Freeman is absolutely the real deal as a franchise QB and budding star. That keeps Tampa Bay in the hunt for a Wild Card berth again, but once again they come up short even with an early schedule that has 6 of their first 9 games at home. Tampa Bay finishes 8-8. |
