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| Jeff Risdon. 18th August, 2010 - 5:02 pm
 2009 record: 4-12
Key Stats:
Turnover Ratio: +1
Sack Differential: -9
Point Differential: -130
Coming In: RB Thomas Jones, G Ryan Lilja, C Casey Weigmann, WR Jerheme Urban, DT Shaun Smith
Going Out: S Mike Brown, WR Bobby Engram, WR Bobby Wade, G Wade Smith, G Mike Goff
Key Rookies: S Eric Berry, WR/RB Dexter McCluster, TE Tony Moeaki, G/T Jon Asamoah, S Kendrick Lewis, CB/RS Javier Arenas
Offense
QB: Year Two of the Matt Cassel experience leaves the Chiefs hopeful for getting their money?s worth out of the former Patriot. Year One saw them sign Tom Brady?s injury fill-in to an astronomical contract based on playing behind a decent line and throwing to two All Pros in Randy Moss and Wes Welker, then get caught genuinely stunned when he couldn?t come close to replicating that act in KC. Despite having Coach Todd Haley tailor the offense (not to mention firing OC Chan Gailey after Week 1) to Cassel?s alleged strength in the shotgun, Cassel proved panicky and unable to master all the coverage reads.
Now he gets to try his hand in a new, more intricate offense under new OC Charlie Weis. The former Patriots (you?ll see that a lot here) mastermind and dethroned Notre Dame head coach brings a scheme with heavy emphasis on pinpoint accuracy and making quick and precise decisions with the ball. Those are not among Cassel?s strong suits, as his 55% completions and numerous needless sacks indicate. Weis is no fool (just ask him!), so expect some tweaks that should help make life easier for his new QB, but Cassel?s inexperience for his age limits developmental upside. His supporters like to point out how many passes the Chiefs receivers dropped last year, but Cassel?s lack of accuracy was a contributing factor to most of those. He really struggled with hitting guys in stride and often threw the ball too far in front when pressured.
The Chiefs are hopeful that better line play and better chemistry with his weapons will help, and I share that optimism to some extent. That guy who played so much better in New England is still in Cassel, and I expect the completion percentage to hit 60% and more judicious use of his good scrambling ability. But the fumbles and INTs will always be a problem, and because he throws on the move so much, improving his accuracy via mechanics is a tough sell. Matt Cassel is a barely adequate starting QB, nothing more.
Brodie Croyle is a remarkably similar QB to Cassel, without as much mobility or any sort of winning pedigree in the NFL. Many team observers felt he was the better choice as the starter a year ago, and Croyle looked good in the opener before Cassel assumed the role. Yet he?s had rotten luck, losing every game he?s started in the NFL and continuing to fight injuries that have dogged him since high school. Croyle has a better, more accurate arm than Cassel, but durability questions and GM Scott Pioli?s curious decision to grossly overpay for Cassel render him the backup here. He?s a very solid #2 that could step in and lead the team for a week or two if Cassel gets hurt or keeps up with the sacks and turnovers. Former Pitt Panther Tyler Palko, best known as the guy who forced Joe Flacco to transfer to Delaware, is the #3 QB. This is his 6th pro team in 3 years, which should tell you about his ability.
RB: Kansas City is in very good shape here. Bringing in Thomas Jones provides a fantastic 1-2 punch with Jamaal Charles, maybe the best duo in the AFC if Jones continues to hold off the aging process.
Collecting Jones from the Jets? discard pile was a major coup for the Chiefs. Even though he?s 32, Jones continues to notch increasingly productive numbers year after year. Very quick for a 215-pounder and also quite economical with his movement, Jones has great balance and vision and sets up his blocks masterfully. The Jets felt as if he had done all he could do for them, but he?s got more than enough left to be a productive member of a shared backfield. The yards per carry (4.4 the last two years) will suffer behind KC?s relatively inferior OL, and he?s not apt to break many 10+ yard runs anymore. But cutting his carries in half to around 150 should help keep his legs fresh and produce lots of successful 3rd and 3 conversions. You might want to steer clear for fantasy purposes, but his presence here is a definite positive for KC.
Charles operated largely in anonymity a year ago, but he burst from the Larry Johnson fiasco and emerged as one of the most dangerous runners in the league. Cat-quick but bigger than he looks on film, Charles has great long speed that he sets up by changing gears quickly. His stutter step and acceleration out of hop steps is as good as any this side of Chris Johnson. He?s also a very good receiver and reliable in pass protection. Having Jones take away some of the workload will make fantasy owners unhappy but should make Chiefs fans rejoice that he?ll be more likely to remain highly productive.
Jackie Battle is the seldom-used ?heavy? back, with just 21 carries in three seasons. They have some mildly intriguing prospects in camp, but don?t expect Kestahn Moore or Tervaris Johnson to ever see the field in the regular season. Tim Castille is adequate as the fullback, though he gave the Broncos fits last year.
I?ll include rookie Dexter McCluster with the RBs, though his role is likely to be all over the offense. If he gets enough touches--which will be a stretch considering the RB depth chart--I think the shifty, versatile McCluster can win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. He is one of the quickest players I?ve ever seen coming out of college, but just as impressive is how tough he is for his small size. Most diminutive scatbacks don?t have the power to venture between the tackles or take big hits from safeties, but the Ole Miss product is surprisingly strong and physical. He will likely get a handful of conventional handoffs, a couple screens, some short slants or clear-out digs, maybe a direct snap or two, and some Wildcat looks every week. McCluster is the kind of weapon that stresses defenses and opens up all sorts of options, not just for himself but for his teammates. That role is invaluable for this offense, and his presence is going to be a major key to any win total improvement.
WR/TE: Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers make up one of the more interesting starting WR duos in the league. Bowe was a first rounder in 2007 and has periodically looked like a very good wideout. His size and strength make him a load on shorter routes, and he has enough of a second gear to command a big cushion. Consistency has been a problem. Bowe was one of many ?examples? made by Coach Haley last year, getting benched in some sort of bizarre motivational ploy, then got suspended for trying to lose the excess weight that angered Haley by using a banned diuretic. He never really clicked with Cassel, who regularly threw the ball too far in front of Bowe, who in turn often didn?t appear to try real hard to pull it in. Bowe is a solid blocker and has flashed good running ability, and with McCluster taking safety attention away he should find more open spaces further down the field. He?s playing for a new contract, which tends to induce often inexplicable production spikes. The talent is there to do it, but it?s far from a given.
Those last two sentences aptly sum up the long career of Chris Chambers. At times Chambers is one of the better receivers in the league, particularly in the 15-25 yard downfield range. That Chambers was on display in Kansas City last year...after San Diego canned him for being horrible...which came a year after Miami canned him for following up a strong year by being horrible. Those wild fluctuations make predicting his effectiveness an art in frustration. Chambers could churn out a season of 65 catches for 900 yards and 8 TDs, or nab 16 catches on about 45 throws his way in 8 weeks and find himself looking for another team. Your guess is as good as mine, but considering how badly the Chiefs are dependent upon getting the former, that unpredictability is not conducive to team success.
Jerheme Urban goes from catching passes from one of the best throwers of all time in Kurt Warner to trying to flag down Cassel?s erratic offerings. He?s got decent size and no fear across the middle, and his run blocking is a plus. As the 4th wideout in Arizona, Urban was effective behind Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston. Alas the Chiefs don?t have any wideouts as consistently good as even Breaston, yet Urban will remain the #4 assuming McCluster occupies the slot role. He won?t see more than 30 balls all season unless Chambers and/or Bowe are injured or sent to Haley?s spacious doghouse. Lance Long and Terrance Copper are eminently replaceable bottom-of-the-roster filler as receivers, though Copper adds solid value on special teams.
Leonard Pope returns for his second year as the starting tight end. He?s very tall and has decent hands, but blocking issues and troubles getting good releases from the line have blunted his impact. The blocking noticeably improved last year, once he finally learned he can in fact bend his knees while engaged. He?s no great threat as anything other than a 3rd option possession guy as a receiver, but this team needs him and likes him in that capacity. Rookie Tony Moeaki could win the starting job with a strong summer. He?s a much more naturally gifted receiver with better speed and route running ability. Moeaki also gets hurt like Lady Gaga changes hairstyles, which led to his draft stock slide to the bottom of the 3rd. If he can stay on the field he should provide the Chiefs with a solid pass catching weapon and good red zone target.
OL: Left to right, the starters here are Branden Albert, Brian Waters, Rudy Niswanger (unless Casey Weigmann beats him out), Ryan Lilja, and Ryan O?Callaghan. It?s a strange mix, as the tackles are both very good run blockers but poor in pass protection, while the interior line is much better in pass protection but badly undersized for run blocking trench warfare.
Albert?s progress is the key to the line. The 2008 1st round pick has not lived up to billing thus far, though he has played too well to earn the ?bust? label. When he gets his feet squarely under him and fires his arms out, he?s been very good at both run and pass blocking. But he often seems mechanical and lacks consistent quickness, and will lean out too far over his feet in his attempts to engage in pass protect. It?s more noticeable when the team uses shotgun formations, which ostensibly defeats the purpose of using the shotgun. Albert has had a good start to camp but must make the leap forward this year if it?s ever going to happen.
Waters is the cagey vet up front. The KC stalwart remains one of the better all-around guards at age 33, though his agility is declining. He has butted heads with Coach Haley but they both appear more comfortable with each other in camp this year. Waters is asked to do a lot, especially in shotgun formations; he frequently down blocks on the nose to help the center, then fans back and fills in behind Albert to help with perimeter rushers. That need to help the center prompted the Chiefs to bring back Casey Weigmann, whom they hope can push Rudy Niswanger if not beat him out of the job outright. That?s asking a lot of a 37-year old that Denver gladly gave up on because he couldn?t handle the beef inside anymore. Niswanger is a little bigger but doesn?t play like it, and the team expressed quiet disappointment with his line call proclivity and lack of fire. Weigmann is stronger in those suits but was clearly on the decline last year, and getting a year older and trying to learn a new offense won?t help.
Lilja is an intriguing acquisition. He?s small at 290 pounds and the Colts tired of his complete inability to generate any sort of run blocking surge. I?m always wary when successful teams with successful systems willingly let players go and replace them with unproven stock, as the Colts did with Lilja. Much like ex-Steelers LBs, former Colts linemen tend to bitterly disappoint away from Peyton Manning. He?ll be better than the departed tandem of a year ago, but don?t expect miracles here. I?d be more confident if he had better talent on his flanks, but the Chiefs are poor at center and even poorer at right tackle. Ryan O?Callaghan has proven to be a very solid run blocker, but his pass protection is woefully inadequate. The former Patriot earned that distinction because Tom Brady didn?t trust him, and clearly Cassel doesn?t either. He plays too upright and too aggressively to ever improve much either. Savvy opposing rushers know to let O?Callaghan make his move first and then just run a simple counter to it, catching him off balance and lacking quickness and pad level to recover.
There is little proven help in reserve. The loser of the center battle will stick as the top reserve, with rookie 3rd rounder Jon Asamoah likely to earn the other reserve interior spot. Asamoah is a gamer that could fill in if desperate at right tackle, but the team appears to want to bring him along slowly, and a lingering injury that took him out of Senior Bowl week doesn?t help. He will start at one guard spot in 2011, if not sooner. Weis? center at Notre Dame, Dan Santucci, knows the system and offers more young potential. The reserve tackles are highly problematic. Barry Richardson and Colin Brown are recent draft picks (4th round of 08 and 5th round of 09 respectively) that are apparent misfires. Richardson is the better of the two and still has some developmental upside. There has been talk of signing a veteran free agent to bolster the depth up front, but that cupboard is pretty bare as of press time.
Defense
DL: Using top 5 overall picks in consecutive drafts on Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson has not nearly paid off the way the Chiefs envisioned. Dorsey starts at right end but is a complete misfit in the 3-4 front. He lacks the beef to play heads up on a guard, and playing in the 5 technique diminishes his best asset, his quickness at knifing in the gap. NFL left tackles are quicker and longer than SEC centers, and Dorsey clearly cannot handle that adjustment. Dorsey was the subject of many a trade rumor over the last 18 months, but Scott Pioli elected to hang on and try to continue hammering a 3-technique into a 5-hole.
Jackson performed okay as a rookie on the left side. That would be acceptable if he were even a late 1st rounder, but going 3rd overall when most every talent evaluator and other team had him slotted as a late 1st rounder means the bar of expectations is higher (see Tyson Alualu in JAX this year). Jackson held the point of attack well but struggled to get off blockers, and he created little backwards surge. I expect improvement in those areas for his sophomore season, but there is major improvement needed. The two former LSU teammates need to at least quadruple their sack total from a year ago, which sounds astronomical until you realize they only got one combined in 2009.
I actually think Jackson could be an excellent complement to a strong nose tackle--think Aaron Smith to Casey Hampton in Pittsburgh. Alas, Ron Franklin is no Casey Hampton. The purpose of the nose tackle in a 3-4 front is to occupy both the center and one of the guards, but few teams ever needed to help their centers in stopping Franklin, who tries hard but just isn?t strong enough or talented enough. The team brought in bombastic Shaun Smith, a fairly skilled space eater but one with a world-class attitude problem. Punching a starting QB and openly defying a head coach on the second day of practice--on different teams within a month, no less--will earn you that reputation. If Haley can harness him, the Chiefs have an upgrade at nose tackle and better depth with Franklin sliding back to the 4th DL. Early indications are not positive. 2009 third rounder Alex Magee is the primary reserve end. If he can control his pad level he?ll be a solid 3rd end, but his natural tendency is to thrust upward, not forward. Wallace Gilberry provides some juice as an inside pass rusher in nickel packages. He is typically the 4th lineman when the team switches to an even front, a tweak that Romeo Crennel would be wise to explore--they rarely used it in 2009 but when they did their run defense was dramatically better.
LB: Most 3-4 defenses are built around dynamic LB play, but the Chiefs have the thinnest, most underwhelming set of 4 starters of any team using this scheme. Tamba Hali is a skilled outside pass rusher; his 26 QB pressures rank among the league leaders and he did so despite almost no help from his line or the OLBs on the other side. His first step is as good as anyone?s this side of DeMarcus Ware, and he has improved using his hands and dropping his shoulders to keep clean of blockers. He only netted 8.5 sacks a year ago, but with any semblance of an inside threat and better downfield coverage that number could easily double. The Chiefs aggressively addressed the latter (more on that below) but getting Hali any sort of pass rushing foil was completely ignored. He needs to improve his run defense, where one opposing coach I spoke to believes he takes plays off a la Randy Moss, which is to say he?s apathetically functional.
Venerable veteran Mike Vrabel has little left in terms of rushing the passer, though he remains far and away the best run defender of the lot. Look for the former Patriot to stick on 1st downs and give way to young Andy Studebaker in pass rushing situations, with Vrabel moving inside in those scenarios. Studebaker has little experience but showed real promise at getting around and under opposing tackles and into backfields. He?s had an excellent offseason, consistently earning raves from all sorts of observers. A jump to 5-6 sacks and quick work against screens is in order. That?s tangible improvement over the production at this spot a year ago, but it?s still lacking compared to other ?secondary? pass rushers like LaMarr Woodley, Jarrett Johnson, or even Ahmad Brooks. Even so, he?s come a long way from D-III Wheaton College, where I once saw him notch 18 tackles and force 3 fumbles in one game against Hope.
But the real problem is inside, where Derrick Johnson has been a sore failure as a 1st rounder and Demorrio Williams is as passive as they come. Johnson picked a great time to have his best game as a pro, snagging two INTs and flying all over the field in last year?s finale. That breeds optimism amongst the Chiefs faithful, but it ignores the fact he was rightfully benched for continually over-running plays and his ongoing struggles at avoiding blocks. Johnson is a physically gifted athlete that can really deliver a blow, but his patience and spatial awareness are lacking. They moved him inside because he wasn?t adept at pass rushing. If he can parlay that strong finish from a year ago into more consistent, reliable play the Chiefs have one big question answered. If not, Corey Mays will start again, a situation nobody in KC wants. Mays is a special teams standout but just doesn?t see the whole field or make quick enough decisions to handle every down duty at ILB. That makes him eerily similar to Williams, who puts up some of the most shallow tackle numbers around. Much like he did in Atlanta, Williams does a fine job of cleaning up plays six to eight yards down the field instead of the 2-4 yard range where those tackles need to be made. He lacks strength to get off blocks, but the bigger surprise is his struggles in coverage despite being fast and lithe. Undersized Jovan Belcher played more like a 3rd safety during his rookie year, though he has turned in a nice offseason, gaining at least 5 pounds of visible muscle definition.
DB: This is where the greatest potential exists on the defense. The starting corners, Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr, are both young talents on the rise. Flowers gets little publicity, but for much of 2009 he was the best CB in the AFC West. He?s physical, smart, and is excellent at shading in coverage and steering the receiver off his intended line. The former Hokie is also quite good in run support, though he still needs to work on finishing his tackles. Carr is a solid foil that does a nice job of eliminating the big play. He?s not overly strong but he understands football geometry, using quick feet and sound technique to stay in position. Carr is also a reliable tackler, better at bringing down receivers quickly than filling in run support. The duo offers the potential to play both man and zone, and new DC Romeo Crennel liked to mix schemes and packages while running the show in Cleveland.
There will likely be two new starting safeties in 2010, but that is a decidedly good thing. No. 5 overall pick Eric Berry became the top safety the second he donned his draft hat, and he will be counted on heavily. Widely considered a can?t-miss talent, Berry has the cover skills and instincts to play corner, the range and hard-hitting prowess to play safety not unlike Ed Reed. It helps that he spent last year at Tennessee playing under Monte Kiffin, the progenitor of the Tampa-2 defense. His versatility likely means he will play some strong safety, some centerfield free safety, and some man slot coverage as well, with some blitzing sprinkled in for good measure. It?s a heavy responsibility to place on a rookie safety, a position where draft status has not always translated to immediate success, but I believe Berry will be at least as good as last year?s top rookie safety, Louis Delmas of the Lions--who was pretty darn good.
Who will be starting with Berry is a source of camp debate. The presumed starter is Jarrad Page, who was reasonably effective as the free safety a year ago before tearing his calf muscle in half. He?s holding out, refusing to sign his RFA tender, and it?s one of those situations where both sides appear to want Judge Wapner to handle the divorce instead of amicably settling. That means Jon McGraw will likely assume the other starting role. Here?s all you need to know about McGraw: he wasn?t good enough to start on one of the worst defenses in NFL history, the 2006 Detroit Lions. As a 3rd safety he?s marginally adequate, though his lack of range and speed makes him vulnerable over the top. Rookie Kendrick Lewis, McCluster?s Ole Miss teammate, will be given a long look in preseason. Dajuan Morgan, a 3rd rounder just two years ago, will be lucky to make the roster.
Behind the two starting corners the dropoff is steep. Maurice Leggett is the best of the lot, and he?s got far more value on special teams. That led to the drafting in the second round of Javier Arenas, a mighty mite with a riverboat gambler?s mentality as a corner. He?s never seen a pass he didn?t think he could pick off, and he does have great ball skills. Arenas is also slow out of his breaks, which means he?s a big play waiting to happen for either team. It largely worked for him at Alabama, where the safety play was strong and the pass rush devastatingly effective. He is naturally built to handle playing in the slot, but he figures to make a bigger impact as a return man, where he could be the next Dante Hall.
Special Teams
The Chiefs really scored with Mr. Irrelevant a year ago, unearthing a legit NFL kicker in Ryan Succop. He has a big leg on both FGs and kickoffs, though his accuracy isn?t ideal. He?s a keeper, as is punter Dustin Colquitt. Javier Arenas has all the trappings of a very successful return man--quick, strong lower body, good vision, unflappable confidence. There are several solid coverage unit performers lingering on the roster, though they must play better on kickoff coverage, where they were vulnerable to straight shots up the middle. If Succop can straighten out his long field goals, these units provide legit opportunities to be the positive difference in close games.
3 Keys to the season
1. Passing fancy. Matt Cassel has better weapons and a strong running game to support him. How well the OL plays in front of him and how well he handles being The Franchise QB is the difference between a functional offense and a very potent one. The defense isn?t good enough to win without a potent one.
2. The play of the front 7 on defense. Years of heavy investment up front has yet to produce anything other than one-dimensional play from Tamba Hali. Glenn Dorsey, Derrick Johnson, Tyson Jackson, and Demorrio Williams must all significantly raise their levels of play or else Romeo Crennel?s defense and a potentially great secondary are going to struggle.
3. Coaching. Todd Haley is abrasive, hostile, and demanding. He?s also in charge of two men, Crennel and Weis, which he used to serve underneath. Those two new coordinators looked real good with Bill Belichick at the helm but have largely floundered away from him. There is ample opportunity for major issues here, and it is incumbent upon Haley to make it work. Whether he can pull that off is a major question mark. Remember, this is a guy who fired both coordinators during the season a year ago and whose former underlings in Arizona openly and loudly cheered when he left.
Forecast
The arrow is pointing up in Kansas City after an offseason of strong personnel moves that upgraded the overall talent level; the question is how high up it can go. There are still major holes (OL other than Waters, LB other than Hali) and significant question marks (WR, DL, QB) that make a dramatic improvement unlikely. The schedule is in their favor, especially the first three weeks: home for perennially slow-starting SD, at CLE, home for SF. If they?re 3-0, and I think that?s highly realistic, I can see these Chiefs building confidence and netting 8 or even 9 wins and threatening as a playoff dark horse. But my reservations about Matt Cassel and a very underwhelming defensive front 7, plus major depth problems all over the roster, keep me from jumping on the KC bandwagon. I like the Chiefs to finish 6-10 in an up-and-down 2010.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
