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| Jeff Risdon. 27th July, 2010 - 11:46 pm
 2009 record: 8-8
Key Stats:
Turnover Ratio: +6
Sack Differential: -2
Point Differential: +7
Coming In: LB Jamar Williams, S Aaron Francisco, DT Ed Johnson, K Todd Carter
Going Out: QB Jake Delhomme, DE Julius Peppers, DT Ma?ake Kemoeatu, S Chris Harris, CB Dante Wesley, WR Muhsin Muhammad, LB Na?il Diggs, QB A.J. Feeley, DT Damione Lewis, QB Josh McCown, G Keydrick Vincent, FB Brad Hoover, LB Landon Johnson, K Rhys Lloyd, S Quinton Teal
Key Rookies: QB Jimmy Claussen, WR Brandon LaFell, LB Eric Norwood, DE Greg Hardy, QB/ATH Armanti Edwards
Offense
QB: Major changes abound here. Foremost is the departure of long-time field general Jake Delhomme, who simply lost the ability to stop throwing the ball to the other team. They won?t miss the INTs or the cold spells, but his leadership and his hot streaks are going to be sorely missed.
Matt Moore took over last season once it was clear Delhomme wasn?t going to get ?it? back, and he was largely impressive down the stretch. Mobile and able to throw a very nice deep ball, Moore finished the season stronger than expected, certainly by Coach John Fox. Almost an afterthought for Fox, Moore displayed accuracy, poise, and an ability to throw the ball away to avoid a sack. In fact, he had the 3rd highest QB rating in the month of December, doing so against the likes of the Patriots, Saints, Vikings, and Giants. Yet there are still a lot of questions about Moore, including whether or not he?ll hold onto the starting gig.
For starters, the Panthers were lame ducks facing opponents with little to play for down the stretch. Moore is almost the antithesis of the fiery Delhomme, quiet and pensive, with little demonstration of his emotions. He is unlikely to fill the leadership vacuum, which is more vital here than on most teams because of the pronounced youth movement. One of the raps on Moore back during his draft time was that he was hesitant to unleash the fastball, and that has proven true during his NFL tenure.
In one of the more bizarre draft weekends, the Panthers drafted not one, not two, but three quarterbacks to compete with Moore. The brightest name from that crowd is Notre Dame?s Jimmy Clausen, who unexpectedly fell to the hyper-patient Panthers in the middle of the second round. Several talent evaluators rated Clausen higher than #1 overall pick Sam Bradford (I?m one of them, though mine is based more on Bradford?s injury concerns). He?s an intriguing fit for Carolina, because he does play-action well and is very accurate when given time, both of which are very likely to happen a lot in this offense. His arm strength isn?t great, but what really scared a lot of teams off is the fact that if you asked 95% of scouts, coaches, teammates, and media people to use one word to describe Clausen, that word would be ?prick?. Even though that is overplayed and Clausen matured a great deal over the last year, that book on him just will not close easily. He?ll get a fair shake at winning the starting job, and I suspect that if he does win the gig it?s because of his leadership because he and Moore are actually fairly similar throwers.
Tony Pike from Cincinnati is not unlike a taller Jake Delhomme, a scrappy underdog with a big arm and no fear. He?ll face a major transition from Brian Kelly?s pass-happy spread offense to Jeff Davidson?s 2-back balanced attack. Pinpoint accuracy is not Pike?s calling card, though he does throw well on the run. Armanti Edwards is the other QB drafted, though he will likely play some sort of as-yet-undefined utility role. A fan favorite from Appalachian State, Edwards is very similar to former Jet Brad Smith, who unsuccessfully tried to make the same transition in a similar offense. The list of undersized spread-option college QBs that have been drafted with the purpose of moving to another position is a long tome of almost complete failure, and though I root for Edwards to be the exception (any FCS QB that can beat Michigan wins my eternal favor!), the odds are squarely against him being on any NFL roster 3 years from now.
Former Louisville slinger Hunter Cantwell enters camp as the top backup, but don?t expect that to last. He is realistically fighting with Pike for the #3 job, with Pike having the edge because of his draft status. I actually liked Cantwell more than most when he came out in 2009, so his cause is not hopeless.
RB: In DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, the Panthers have a pair of 1,000 yard rushers that complement one another quite nicely. Both topped 1100 yards in 2009, the first time a pair of teammates has crossed that plateau. Williams did so despite missing the final 3 games, and both accomplished it despite zero threat of the downfield passing game and numerous OL injuries. There is little reason to believe that they both can?t approach that combined level of production once again.
Williams is the speedy, shifty back; Stewart is the between-the-tackles power guy. That?s how the look physically, but they run almost interchangeably. Williams has a couple of advantages that make him the more dependable option--he is a better receiver and has much better long-term health. He has consistently been one of the best big-play backs in the league over the last three years, and is playing for his next contract in 2010. For a guy who reliably chalks up over 5 yards every time he touches the ball and willingly embraced his team spending another 1st round pick on direct job competition, that price tag is going sky high.
Stewart has battled some injuries, including a bum Achilles that keeps him from practicing during the season. He hasn?t really missed the practice time, and he has yet to miss a game. Sharing the load is ideal for him, and with his low center of gravity and thrashing knees he makes a perfect foil for Williams? more angular, lithe running style. Stewart is built like Jerome Bettis but has much better explosiveness and long speed, whereas Williams is built like Chris Johnson and runs with the same elusiveness and very close to the same top gear.
Tyrell Sutton and Mike Goodson will have a camp battle for the #3 spot, which doesn?t get a lot of carries but will see more time as a 3rd down back. Goodson is bigger and probably a little faster than Sutton, who showed more as a receiver. A large part of their battle will come on special teams, where the shiftier Sutton has the edge. Tony Fiametta takes over the fullback role from longtime Panther and decided fan favorite Brad Hoover. The fans will miss Hoover, but Fiametta is a more natural lead blocker and comes significantly cheaper.
WR/TE: This unit might as well be called Steve Smith and the Question Marks. Smith is unquestionably one of the biggest talents in the game and a legit #1 weapon. Intense, pugnacious, and relentlessly in motion (mouth most certainly included), Smith plays bigger than his 5?8? size and is perhaps the quickest skilled player in the league. Last season, he often represented the entire receiving corps as the solitary threat, yet still managed nearly 1000 yards, some of which came while playing with a broken arm. Smith is incredibly difficult to match in man coverage, and his acceleration and lateral agility are nightmares for zones. He?s also a willing blocker, although some opponents would label his blocking style as MMA combat.
It?s the rest of the receivers that are one giant ball of underwhelming question marks. Muhsin Muhammad mercifully retired, which leaves the #2 WR door wide open for Dwayne Jarrett. Of course, that door has been open for the former 2nd rounder for three seasons now, and he keeps slamming it on himself with lackadaisical work habits, iffy hands, and an almost freakish lack of quickness and flexibility for a skill position player. Jarrett was well on his way to joining the mass exodus of Panthers before a solid finale (he had 5 catches and threw a great block to free Stewart for a long run). The size is there and he should know the offense by now, so it?s make-or-break time for the USC product. The safe money is on ?break?.
Third round pick Brandon LaFell is physically quite similar to Jarrett, though he showed better catch range during his LCU career. If he continues to impress the coaches like he did in early OTAs, he?ll have the other starting job by the end of the second week of camp. His best asset is his physical blocking, which puts him in good position to succeed Muhammad in the offense. He had issues catching well-thrown balls in college but also demonstrated a flair for making the difficult ones look easy, not unlike the similarly built Terrell Owens. He?s a decent bet to come close to Muhammad?s 50 or so catches and 600 or so yards, and the fact he signed early helps justify those expectations.
The Panthers have close to 10 other receivers in camp fighting it out for the bottom roster spots. Wallace Wright will earn one of those based on his return man capabilities (another chronic problem area, more on that later). The aforementioned Edwards will be tried in the slot and out of the backfield, though he?s as green as they come. 6th rounder David Gettis is a local even though he went to Baylor, and he has nice size and good hands. Charly Martin, Kenneth Moore, Oliver Young, Trent Guy, and former Buccaneers flop and Edwards App State teammate Dexter Jackson should all relish the camp experience, because they?ll almost certainly never see the field in a regular season game.
Jeff King is the starting TE and has carved himself a nice niche as a short-yardage receiver and solid all-around blocker. Plodding and methodical, defenses tend to ignore King when he goes out as a receiver, which allows him to show off his great hands and keep the chains moving. Dante Rosario is faster and lines up from time to time at H-back, but he isn?t as good a blocker and is prone to mental mistakes. Gary Barnridge has the field-stretching speed that is en vogue these days, but his blocking limitations and the lack of spice to the offense keep him largely on the bench. If the team decides to shock the world and open up the passing offense, Barnridge could emerge as a 30-catch, 450-yard receiver, but don?t hold your breath.
OL: The Panthers have long held a strong reputation for building strong offensive lines, and the 2010 edition will be no exception. This group is very talented, led by first round tackles Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah. Both are expected to come back at full strength from season-ending injuries. Gross is one of the most underappreciated talents in the league, an exceptional all-round left tackle with no real holes in his game. He is perhaps the best run-blocking LT in the league. Otah is a mauler on the right side, physical and increasingly competent in pass protection. He is still learning the nuances of the game and can struggle with blitz recognition, but Otah validated the extreme measures to move up and get him in the 2008 draft. He must exhibit better durability, as he is seemingly always battling various injuries.
Travelle Wharton is an above-average LG that can capably fill in at tackle. Blessed with real quick feet and good stamina for a 300 pounder, Wharton teams with Gross to provide an incredibly athletic left side. Center Ryan Kalil is very undersized, but he is a master of initiating leverage and keeps his feet moving all the time. He is one of the better centers in the league and seldom misses a line call. Kalil is playing in a contract year, so expect continued strong play, and getting a long-term deal done is a priority for the Panthers.
Right guard is the question mark up front, with Keydrick Vincent moving on. Mackenzy Bernardeau was a revelation as a 7th round rookie, admirably filling in at LG when Wharton kicked outside. He didn?t allow a sack and the dropoff in run blocking was barely noticeable. He will fight with Geoff Schwartz, who also played reasonably well in relief of Otah last year. He?s a bit of a G/T tweener, but Schwartz showed he can clear some major holes as a run blocker. Yet another 2nd year player, Duke Robinson, will get a look as well, though he will likely do little more than provide big depth. If there are two things we?ve learned about Carolina?s OL, it?s that a.) Their depth is probably a lot better than it looks on paper, and b.) This coaching staff sure knows how to develop young linemen. If the starting 5 are healthy this could be the best OL in the league, and as long as Kalil in the middle doesn?t get hurt they should be able to weather a run of injuries without major fallout.
Defense
DL: Panthers fans might need to refer to a cheat sheet to keep track of all the changes up front. Three of the four spots will see new starters, with holdover LDE Tyler Brayton the only returnee. Brayton comes off a very nice season, bagging 5 sacks and holding his own against the run. Brayton could shift to the right side if he can continue to rush the passer like he did a year ago, and when camp opens that prime spot will be his to lose. He?s not a dynamic player but is a solid starter that can nicely augment and mentor the newbies around him.
Those newbies include two new tackles. Tank Tyler was the #4 DT a year ago, but with Damione Lewis, Hollis Thomas, and Ma?ake Kemoeatu all gone, Tyler is the last man standing. And stand he does pretty well, as he reliably holds the line against the run and can slip off blocks to make the tackle. Where the Panthers will notice a big difference between Lewis and Tyler is in the ability to collapse the pocket. Despite just one sack last year, Lewis recorded numerous pressures and wound up in the backfield quite a bit, but Tyler has made just two plays behind the line in the last 3 seasons. He?s also not as quick as Lewis, but Tyler is not bulky enough to slide to the nose effectively. Louis Leonard will get first crack at the other starting DT spot, provided he?s fully recovered from a nasty broken ankle that ended his season after just 2 games a year ago. He has the beef that Tyler lacks and was showing real promise before he got hurt, and he and Tyler do have a nice chemistry forged together. How well that translates to the field remains to be seen.
Expect a lot of tinkering with the interior rotation. Youngsters Nick Hayden and Corey Irvin will get reps, and rookie Greg Hardy has the size to slide to a tackle spot in a nickel package. Hayden is the most likely of those players to make a real impact. Undersized at about 290 pounds but very active with his hands, the Wisconsin product dominated in a game against the Patriots. Colts castoff Ed Johnson can contribute if he can stay out of trouble, though he?s smaller than the Panthers like for the tackle spot he played in Indy.
Two young former high draftees will provide the pass rushing punch at DE. Charles Johnson and Everette Brown must live up to their draft billing in order to replace the production of Julius Peppers. Johnson (like Brayton) is huge for a 4-3 DE at 275 pounds, but he?s not very good against the run. He?s also not real quick around the edge, though he does have a nice outside-in move and decent bull rush. Carolina gave up their ?10 first rounder to snare Brown in the middle of the 2nd round in ?09, and he must make a quantum leap forward in year two after being largely anonymous as a rookie. Speed off the edge is his calling card, and he will spot both starters during nickel packages and obvious passing downs. Brown did register 12 QB hurries and 2 forced fumbles and showed surprising alacrity at crashing inside on draw plays, but the Panthers need a whole lot more than 2.5 sacks. I expect him to at least triple that figure, though it could come at the expense of his run defense and will require more help from the inside guys than they?ve ever demonstrated before.
LB: The offseason knee injury suffered by starting WLB Thomas Davis is a devastating blow, one that reshuffles an already askew deck. The original plan was to keep Pro Bowler Jon Beason in the middle and let Dan Connor take over on the strong side, where his lack of speed is mitigated. Now it appears the Panthers will move Connor to the middle and slide Beason outside to fill Davis? shoes, because in this defense the WLB is the playmaker. Beason is a superb talent that doesn?t get anywhere near the national credit he deserves; if he played in New York or Dallas he?d be a Defensive MVP candidate. The only real knock on him is his size, which keeps him from blowing through blockers.
Connor is in a make-or-break position. He comes well-heeled from Penn State, and his instincts and reactions are good enough to merit a starting role. But he?s not quick laterally and has shown little ability to make impact plays. Almost all his 30 tackles last year were of the second-man-in variety, and in two seasons he has yet to force a turnover, break up a pass, or record a sack. The preseason is vital for Connor, because the team won?t hesitate to move Beason back to the middle and demote Connor to top reserve and special teamer. In that scenario, former Bears reserve Jamar Williams will start next to Beason on the weak side. Williams comes from a similar defensive scheme and has shown good ability in coverage in a reserve role, and his former teammates spoke quite highly of Williams upon his departure in the Chris Harris trade.
The rest of the LB duties will be divided up between James Anderson and rookie Eric Norwood. Anderson will start on the strong side as he did last year, when he was progressively effective against the run. He?s not an attacking sort and clearly isn?t comfortable in coverage. Norwood will get as much playing time as he can earn as the pass rushing specialist, including some potential playing a hybrid end/backer role. He has great speed and a good motor, but saw his draft stock slide due to injury and strength concerns. One to watch: diminutive Sean Ware, an undrafted rookie from New Hampshire who caught some eyes in OTAs.
DB: The youth movement has hit here as well. Clubhouse leader Chris Harris was let go at strong safety in favor of young Charles Godfrey, who is better in coverage and provides more bang for the buck. Godfrey and converted CB Sherrod Martin will start at safety. Stylistically similar, they are interchangeable and provide good versatility, though they are lacking in experience and size. Godfrey finished 2009 on a tear and could really blossom into a Pro Bowl player if he continues to improve in coverage. Martin needs to improve at taking shorter paths to the ball on interior runs, but his tackling is solid and his hands remain corner-like. Veteran Aaron Francisco is the top reserve, coming over from a similar Cover-2 defense in Indianapolis. Rookie Jordan Pugh is similar to Martin and will also make the move from college corner to NFL safety. Pugh could keep Francisco relegated to special teams if he shows he can play the run well.
Chris Gamble is the top CB. While he?s not as good as he thinks he is and isn?t really a shutdown corner, Gamble is a very solid talent with great size and good speed. He tends to gamble (no pun intended) in the zone too much and can?t stop and start with the quickness of an elite corner. The team likes his swagger and his steady improvement in run support. Gamble is gunning for his first Pro Bowl, and if he can make a few more plays on balls in the air he has a chance to meet that goal.
Disgruntled Richard Marshall will be the other starter once again. He will play what seems almost certain to be his final season in Carolina under the RFA tender. Marshall is coming off a season where he largely outplayed the more heralded Gamble, particularly in deeper coverage; he has a very natural feel for guiding the receivers to his help and closes quickly on the ball. If he gets over being upset about his contract, he and Gamble could be one of the best 1-2 CB tandems in the league. Captain Munnerlyn broke out as a very solid nickel back in his rookie year. Very undersized but very aggressive, Munnerlyn has great natural coverage instincts and good toughness. He typically played as the outside cover man, with Marshall sliding inside on the slot receiver in a system that plays to both their strengths.
Corner depth is a major concern beyond the top three. CJ Wilson clings to the dime back role, though late-round rookie RJ Stanford will be given a chance to beat him out. Having seen Wilson struggle in coverage, that shouldn?t be too difficult. Brian Witherspoon has value only as a return man.
Special Teams: This has long been a problem area, save a strong 2008 that increasingly looks like a freakish anomaly. Kicker Jon Kasay is showing the signs of aging, and his range is dramatically shrinking even though the accuracy on shorter kicks is still very good. Todd Carter replaces Rhys Lloyd as the kickoff specialist, though punter Jason Baker could win that job and save a roster spot. The one consistent positive element to the special teams has been Baker?s solid punting.
The coverage units, already a weak point, figure to take a big hit from the loss of Hoover and several former regulars who have now moved up the depth chart at other spots. Captain Munnerlyn is an adequate punt returner, but there will be a camp battle royale to see who can win the kick return job. It?s Mike Goodson?s job to lose, but that was true last year...and he did. The team is real hopeful that some of the young athletes make names for themselves here, but this coaching staff has never placed high priority on improving the units.
3 Keys to the season
1. Finding a passing attack to balance the offense. That falls on both the QB position and all the receivers other than Steve Smith. There is no question the running offense will be top notch, but without some semblance of a passing attack it simply won?t be enough. Relying on 45-yard TD runs is not a way to build a successful offense.
2. Replacing all the lost starters on defense. Contrary to popular opinion the cupboard is not bare, just pretty green. The youngsters need to grow up and grow together quickly, especially in a division with the high-powered Saints and Falcons.
3. Prevailing attitude. Both Coach Fox and GM Hurney are sitting in lame-duck status, and the team has earned the rep of being unwilling to pay to keep premium talent, a situation that is exacerbated by the labor uncertainty. Keeping everyone focused on the short-term will be a challenge, one that would get a huge assist from a strong start.
Forecast
Just looking up at the ?coming in? and ?going out? lists, it sure appears like the Panthers are poised to struggle with a massive youth movement. That could very well be the case, but I expect a surprising amount of success. I base that on two main factors: Carolina has the best running offense in the NFL, and this franchise has a history of outperforming expectations in supposed ?down? years. They should be healthier in 2010, and they match up well with the bulk of their schedule so long as the starting secondary holds up. All those injuries last year prepared a lot of the newbies for readiness, and the team surged late despite having nothing to play for. I see the Panthers sneaking up and stunning a lot of opponents and pundits. Carolina runs to a 10-6 finish and could sneak into a Wild Card berth with a little luck and good health.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
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