| Jeff Risdon. 7th September, 2009 - 9:10 pm
 2008 record: 10-6, won NFC North, lost in Wild Card round
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: -6, Sack Differential: +2, Point Differential: +46
Coming In: QB Brett Favre, QB Sage Rosenfels, CB Karl Paymah, G/C Kory Lichtensteiger
Going Out: C Matt Birk, S Darren Sharper, DT Marcus Johnson, CB Marcus McCauley, WR/KR Aundrae Allison, LB Vinny Ciurciu
Key Rookies: WR/KR Percy Harvin, T Phil Loadholt, CB Asher Allen
Offense
QB: Unless you live in a cave, by now you’ve heard countless opinions about Brett Favre’s offseason. On the field, Favre represents an upgrade in a couple of important areas. Foremost is his accuracy on deeper throws, something Tavaris Jackson is only sporadically capable of matching. His gunslinger mentality is also a marked departure, and I share the opinion that he’s more likely to lead the team to a comeback win or road playoff game, perhaps at the expense of a couple of regular season losses where his INTs get the team into too much trouble. Favre was terrible last December thanks to a shoulder injury, and his legendary durability has a downside now that he’s approaching 40--he’s got even more mileage on those tires (and wings) than most people his age. Nobody will question #4’s toughness, but it’s pretty evident that Favre is not self-aware enough to know if he’s not up to snuff, be it injury or diminished skills. It’s a risk Coach Childress was willing to bet his career upon, and there is seemingly no way this won’t end in dramatic fashion. Whether that is positive or negative is yet to be seen.
At least the Vikings have admirable depth. Jackson is the likely backup, and the deposed starter fared quite well in relief last year when Gus Frerotte (who also stole his job) got hurt. His maddening inconsistency and poor accuracy are better served in a backup capacity, and his athleticism is a good change of pace. That leaves Rosenfels in a major lurch. The Vikings gave up a draft pick to get him, then signed him to an extension. Now it’s highly unlikely he sees the field this year. Much like Jackson, Rosenfels has flashed starting potential but has a nasty propensity for making the boneheaded gaffe. He’s not as strong-armed as Favre or Jackson. It would surprise no one if one of the backups is traded at some point, though the Vikings did release young John David Booty, a QB some in the organization thought had a real bright future. All eggs are in Favre’s basket.
RB: Adrian Peterson is the preeminent running back in the league, a headlining talent who can dominate games and produce jaw-dropping highlights. He is the rare breed of runner who transcends style, and he has the complete physical package. A legit MVP candidate, “All Day” has grown more comfortable being so heavily hyped and promoted, and his teammates respect his work ethic and pleasant presence in the locker room. There are lingering questions about his durability, though in 2008 he was better in December than September. With lousy run defenses in Chicago and Detroit each on the docket twice, expect Peterson to rank at or near the top in rushing yards and touchdowns once again. At this point, the only real holes in his game are pass protection and securing catches more adeptly.
Chester Taylor is probably the best backup RB in the league, a viable 1,200 yard starter when given the chance. He has adapted to, and accepted, his role as the 3rd down back and change-of-pacer. A very good receiver and exceptional pass blocker, Taylor is quite valuable to the Vikings. Fullback Naufahu Tahi is an adequate lead blocker but little threat to do anything else. Albert Young is the #3 RB but will only play in case of injury. Percy Harvin will see some time in the backfield, both as a hybrid RB/WR a la Reggie Bush and in Wildcat packages.
WR/TE: Bernard Berrian proved worth the big contract in 2008, providing the Vikings with a much-needed field stretching presence and legit weapon at wideout. A master at changing speeds mid-route to get separation, Berrian should benefit greatly from Favre’s more consistent arm and accuracy down the field. He led the league in drawing pass interference and holding penalties, hidden first downs that enhance his relatively low catch total. Berrian is also a better blocker than often credited, though he could use more of his wiry strength across the middle.
Bobby Wade and Sidney Rice come next in the pecking order at receiver. Wade is the consummate pro’s pro, a sure-handed hard worker who can find holes in zones and presents himself nicely as a target. He’s on the slower and smaller side for possession-type wideouts and he needs to be a more physical blocker, but he’s the sort of receiver that QBs trust on 3rd down. Rice appears finally healthy and matured, both of which have stunted his young career. Big and not shy about using his size to shed coverage, Rice showed the extra giddyup in his gallop in preseason, which makes him a bigger threat down the field. He still needs work on running more precise routes and getting cleaner releases, but Rice just turned 23 and is already entering his 3rd season. Percy Harvin is the complete wildcat, err, card. One of the most talented athletes to ever enter the league, Harvin fell in the draft because a.) teams weren’t sold on his receiving skills and, b.) he’s an immature egomaniac who gets hurt a lot. As far as the receiving part goes, he’s similar to Ted Ginn Jr., another world-class sprinter with decent hands who struggles with the intricacies of the position. The difference for Minnesota is that Harvin is not the #1, or even #2, wide receiver on the team. He’ll likely see as many carries and Wildcat snaps as he does receptions, and he is very dangerous in the open field. Adding his extra dimension to what they’ve already got at RB and Favre’s impact on the passing offense is a major bonus and luxury for Minnesota, provided he stays right both physically and mentally.
Visanthe Shiancoe sure looked like wasted money after 2007, his first year in Minnesota. He dropped too many passes, couldn’t seem to turn the right way, and held as much as he blocked. That all changed in 2008, as Shiancoe emerged as a legit pass catching threat and tenacious blocker. He is quite effective running the intermediate seam route and red zone corners, where Favre has made his tight ends loads of money throughout his career, so the physically gifted (he proved that with his unintentionally nude post-game cameo) Shiancoe could have a Pro Bowl season. Venerable veteran Jim Kleinsasser returns as the blocking specialist, where he has been one of the best for a long time. He ventures further downfield than most fullbacks on his blocks.
OL: Back before all the Favre drama, this was the primary question mark in Minnesota. Two new starters must make an immediate impact. With long-time stalwart C Matt Birk gone, the Vikings turn to second-year man John Sullivan as the new starting center. Sullivan is a former wrestler who blocks like one, with lots of foot quickness and hand movement, much of which sure looks like holding. I’m more confident than most in Sullivan, and the Vikings have some history in knowing when to let an aging center depart--that’s how Birk first earned the job. My main concern is with rookie RT Phil Loadholt, though he admittedly has a pretty low bar to surpass in order to represent progress at the position. Tall, thick, and massively strong but slow-footed and seemingly unable to bend his knees, Loadholt is as big a boom/bust tackle prospect as any recent draftee. He should upgrade the run blocking, but it’s a big risk putting him in charge of keeping an aging Favre upright.
Loadholt pairs with Bryant McKinnie to form a seriously physically imposing set of bookend tackles. Both are 6’7”+ and 330+ and play with snarl. McKinnie has had consistency issues in pass protection, but in 2008 he was steadily fantastic. Perhaps he grew up during his 4-game suspension that McKinnie served to start 2008. He blocks down in the running game as well as any LT in the league, though with Steve Hutchinson at left guard it’s not like the Vikings need him to do that very much. Hutchinson has started to decline a little but remains a great all-around guard. Fierce, strong, and tactically flawless, Hutch has not been flagged for a penalty in the last three years. RG Anthony Herrera is solid as a run blocker but struggles picking up line stunts and twists in pass protection. Ryan Cook bombed as the starting RT, but he fits nicely as a reserve who can play tackle or guard if needed. Depth beyond him is a problem, however. Artis Hicks was worse than Cook at RT and is not near as good a run blocker inside. The primary backup inside will be waiver-wire pickup Kory Lichtensteiger, who was cut from Denver for a reason.
Defense
DL: The defensive line starters are an elite unit and the best in the league. The “Williams Wall” of tackles Pat and Kevin Williams (no relation) are the most dominant run-stuffing duo in football, capable of imposing their will on even the best opposing OLs. You simply cannot run between the tackles against Minnesota, and many times the opponent doesn’t even try. Each faces a 4-game suspension as part of the ridiculous Starcaps scandal, but their appeals could drag it out enough that it doesn’t hit until 2010, if ever. Kevin Williams has a claim to being the best overall DT in the game, as he is a dynamic interior pass rusher as well as a brick wall against the run. His body control and quickness for a man of his size are awesome in the literal sense of the word. Of concern besides the Starcaps issue is Pat Williams’ age (37) and how badly the defense fell off when he missed the final two games and playoff loss. Fred Evans is a serviceable backup to Pat Williams, but he’s not as apt to make the play. Young Letroy Guion was one of the most improved players in camp and preseason, but it’s still a steep fall off from Kevin Williams.
All that beef inside makes DE Jared Allen even more lethal as a pass rusher extraordinaire off the edge. Relentless, quick, and confident, Allen is a master at setting up one move with another and constantly mixing up his approach, keeping the tackles off balance and easier to attack. Allen blends well with Kevin Williams; they often commanded four blockers to their side of the line, which takes away potential targets and makes life easier for the guys in coverage. Allen played through pain without losing much effectiveness, and his man’s man persona endears him to the Minnesota faithful. He could very well be the guy wearing the Viking helmet and blond braids blowing into a horn if he wasn’t starting at defensive end.
The sore spot is left end, where Ray Edwards and Brian Robison just haven’t developed as desired. Edwards in particular needs to prove he can beat single-man blocking to generate more pressure on the QB, though his run defense is solid. A Vikings staffer who charts these sorts of things told me that of Edwards’ five sacks and 21 QB pressures, three of the sacks and 13 of the pressures came a direct result of Allen flushing the QB right to Edwards. Robison is a better pass rusher but has been a liability against the run, though it doesn’t help that whenever he enters the game the opponent often single-mindedly runs right at him. Jayme Mitchell returns to provide better depth. He’s tall and plays as such, but he had some success getting to the QB when he was healthy in 2006-07.
LB: The starting trio in Minnesota is sorely overdue for recognition. Spearheaded by emerging Pro Bowler Chad Greenway, the Vikings have a versatile, hard-hitting group of LBs that fits very well behind their dominant DL. Greenway is a textbook-perfect tackler with great range and an outstanding football IQ. He is great at shedding blockers but also at maneuvering the blocker into the way when he can’t break free. Pass coverage remains a work in progress, but fortunately for the Vikes, WLB Ben Leber is quite good in that area. Leber gets overlooked, but the Kansas State product is a bundle of aggressive energy and strength with great footwork in coverage, even if he doesn’t break up as many passes as some would like him to. He’s also a decent blitzer, though at times he can be too content to take on the block. Manning the middle is E.J. Henderson, another Pro Bowl-caliber talent who can do a little of everything at a high level. He is coming back from a nasty foot injury, and if his toes aren’t right he will lose some of his best attribute--speed. Henderson is a strong locker room presence and defensive signal caller. Some opponents will tell you he can be neutralized by running right at him and throwing behind him, but that’s true of most middle backers in a base zone defense.
E.J.’s little brother Erin is the top outside backup, and he should see more snaps in the nickel package in 2009. He’s a little faster but a little less physical than his older sibling. Heath Farwell returns after missing 2008, though he will have much more impact on special teams, as will rookie Jasper Brinkley, E.J. Henderson’s eventual successor in the middle. It’s not stellar depth but it’s good enough to get by for a week or two, if needed.
DB: It’s not often that a cornerback earns Pro Bowl recognition for run defense, but that’s essentially what happened for Antoine Winfield in 2008. Not that his coverage wasn’t good, but the former Buckeye has long been the NFL’s best run-stuffing corner. Winfield is more of a bait-and-hook cover man, using his superb quickness and closing ability to make up for staring too long at the QB and occasionally losing track of his man. His great tackling also applies in the passing game, as he is great at controlling YAC and also stripping the ball. With the pass rush that the Vikings get, Winfield is fine in coverage, though they wouldn’t mind more plays on the ball in the air. Cedric Griffin starts on the other side, and he makes my list for most underrated players. Like Winfield, he’s not the greatest at getting his hands on the ball, but he’s a good positional cover man with decent toughness. Also like Winfield, he’s a sound tackler (though not the thumping hitter) who seems to genuinely love playing the run. There is always the concern that a player of his caliber will decline right after getting the sort of contract extension he earned, and his career has been marred by inconsistency, but he is a fine #2 corner who communicates quite well with Winfield and the safeties.
Those safeties will be different in 2009. Tyrell Johnson moves up the 2-deep and takes over for Darren Sharper, whom the Vikings wisely let go. A second-rounder in 2008, Johnson started of real slow but got visibly more comfortable and confident as his rookie year wore on. He’s more of an in-the-box safety, and in college he was a freakishly prolific blitzer, something the Vikings have yet to tap into. Madieu Williams is the other starter, and he’s much better in coverage than Johnson, who filled in for him while Williams missed time with a neck injury. The veteran Williams was more of a playmaker before being relegated to almost strictly over-the-top coverage help in this defense. He is a sound fundamental tackler but isn’t the quickest to close on the runner.
Depth is an issue in the secondary. Discarded Bronco (as bad as it sounds) Karl Paymah is ostensibly the nickel back, though promising, physical rookie Asher Allen might usurp him by season’s end. I like Allen quite a bit but he’s still got a long way to go. Benny Sapp had his moments as the dime back, though he brings more value on special teams. He’s much better in cloud zone than working man-on in the slot or against tight ends--a weapon of attack to which the Vikings are particularly susceptible. Rookie Jamarca Sanford went from camp afterthought to top reserve safety with his impressive hitting and field awareness, but he remains an unproven rookie.
Special Teams: Kicker Ryan Longwell and punter Chris Kluwe are exceptional at what they do, highly ironic because special teams has been a bugaboo for the Vikings for years. They nearly lost to Detroit and New Orleans because of poor punt and kick coverage, and the units surrender far too many yards thanks to poor lane integrity and an overall lack of tackling acumen.
Longwell is very accurate on field goals and has a very live leg, though the coaches would like to see more hang time on his longer kickoffs. Kluwe set team records for net punting and most 50+ yard boots, though he too will outkick his coverage too often. A couple of youngsters should help--backup LB Jasper Brinkley and CB Asher Allen, both rookies--are dedicated special teamers. The punt return gig also goes to a newcomer, former practice squad WR Jaymar Johnson. The ever-dangerous Percy Harvin will be the primary kick returner, a job he strangely did not hold at Florida. If the coverage units improve to even average, the Vikings could net an extra win or two.
3 Keys to the season
1. Throughout the offseason, the mantra in Minnesota was that the Vikings were a QB away from being a Super Bowl favorite. Well, they went out and got Packers legend Brett Favre to answer that allegation. He’s 40 and coming off shoulder surgery, missed all of camp, and still doesn’t know the names of all his teammates as the season commences. How will it work out?
2. The revamped OL must keep Favre upright and continue to pave the way for the best rushing attack in the league.
3. Maintaining the intensity and effectiveness of the defense over the course of a full season. On paper this defense is one of the best in the league, but the depth is iffy and the Williams Wall faces potential suspension.
Forecast: My knee-jerk reaction to the Favre courtship and eventual signing was that a great team just jumped the shark and ruined their chances. But in talking to some Vikings and thinking about it, I’m back in the camp that sees this is a legit Super Bowl contender that now has a QB who can win games, not just avoid losing them. The running game and the run defense are top-shelf, the stars on the team are primed for continued greatness, and the team has responded well to the challenge that Favre presents; his arrival demonstrated that the window for this group is closing fast. I think they’re up for the challenge, and a cupcake early schedule (@CLE, @DET, SF) helps. Minnesota finishes 11-5, back in the playoffs and with a better chance to make some postseason noise than in 2008. |
