| Jeff Risdon. 25th August, 2009 - 9:28 am
 2008 record: 8-8, Fourth in NFC South
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: -4, Sack Differential: +15, Point Differential: +70
Coming In: S Darren Sharper, CB Jabari Greer, DE Paul Spicer, C Nick Leckey, DT Rod Coleman, TE Darnell Dinkins, FB Heath Evans, RB Mike Bell
Going Out: CB Mike McKenzie, S Josh Bullocks, DT Brian Young, RB Aaron Stecker, FB Mike Karney, RB Deuce McAllister, G Matt Lehr, CB Jason David, S Kevin Kaesviharn, WR David Patten
Key Rookies: CB Malcolm Jenkins, S Chip Vaughn, P Thomas Morstead
Offense:
QB: Drew Brees comes off what was statistically the second-most prolific season by any quarterback in NFL history. With his pinpoint accuracy, quick release, and great feel for reading coverage, Brees bears a strong stylistic similarity to Dan Marino. Near impossible to sack (just 13 times last year), Brees has great pocket awareness and can fire the ball with authority from a three-step drop. Coach Sean Payton's aggressive, innovative offense requires Brees to make quick reads and throw the ball all over the field. The biggest knocks are his height, or lack thereof, and his propensity for throwing fourth quarter interceptions; 21 of his last 30 picks have come in the fourth quarter. Regardless, Brees is a legit franchise quarterback and has thrived as the leader of one of the most potent offenses in recent years, a status that is highly unlikely to change anytime soon.
Backup Mark Brunell no longer can beat anyone with his legs, but he's a savvy veteran with enough arm strength and guile to hold the fort for a week or two. He also shares a birthday with this writer, which is a major plus in his favor. Third string falls to Joey Harrington. As a lifelong Lions fan, I'm obligated to follow the motherly axiom about "If you've got nothing nice to say..."
RB: The Deuce McAllister era is done, but the Saints still do not lack for rushing options. Pierre Thomas took over as the feature back when both McAllister and Reggie Bush were hurt in 2008 and was a revelation. Running with good pad level and great balance inside the tackles, Thomas is well-liked by his linemen for his ability to get out of trouble when they don't give him anything to work with. There is some concern about his viability as a full-time, 200+ carry back, and his yards per carry on grass (2.2) suggest he's the rare power runner that thrives on the fake stuff.
Then there is Bush, one of the most divisive professional athletes in terms of fan opinion. Heavily hyped coming out of USC, Bush does not fit the role of traditional running back. He's tentative and dances to the hole, plus he's not going to bull through contact. People who demand their players fit in convenient packages find Bush a major disappointment. But if you can accept innovation and non-traditional roles, Bush is a trailblazer of sorts. An exceptional receiver, Bush can line up as a slot receiver, a flanker, or as part of a receiver stack and the defense must take him deadly serious. The Saints throw all sorts of screens, lateral passes, and quick check-down slants and flares, and Bush is very successful in that role. He is one of the most dangerous players in the league in open space, and he also more than capably fills the role of third down back. He's a rhombus that critics want to put in a square hole.
Former Bronco Mike Bell has seized the #3 job with a strong summer. He has wisely bagged the conversion to fullback, though that is indicative of his lack of speed. Heath Evans takes over for fan favorite Mike Karney at fullback, and he brings a little more speed but a lot more versatility to the table. He's also an upgrade on special teams. Beyond those two, it's a hodgepodge of undrafted rookies and practice squad hopefuls, so good health to Thomas and Bush is imperative, and something that has dogged Bush's relatively short career.
WR/TE: The Saints are talented, deep, and versatile here. Led by tall, physical Marques Colston, general manager Mickey Loomis has provided Brees with many weapons. Colston possesses great hands; ignore last season's drops, as he played with a broken thumb. Few receivers high-point the ball better, and he runs great fade routes with precise synchronicity with Brees. Lance Moore plays like a poor man's Wes Welker; shifty, quick, sure-handed, and tough in the slot. Moore fits very well inside blazer Devery Henderson, who has made a career out of running fly patterns. Henderson catches about 25 passes a year but with a lofty per-catch average over 20 yards every time he touches the ball. If he scored more touchdowns his career would most closely resemble recent Hall of fame inductee Bob Hayes, but Henderson isn't close to being that consistently productive. He challenges safeties deep, giving Moore more room to work underneath.
After the top three it gets a lot less imposing, but still dangerous. Robert Meacham has not lived up to first round expectations, but he's got nice wheels and has not lost any of his trademark confidence. If he learns how to plant and cut when running a route, he'll be a much better player and a more viable weapon. Adrian Arrington has propelled himself forward with a great offseason, and the former Michigan man has good size and hands. Courtney Roby is also in the mix, though he has more value as a return specialist. Skyler Green is Moore's understudy in the slot.
At tight end, Jeremy Shockey hopes to remain upright for a full slate of games, something he has yet to do in New Orleans. No longer able to get downfield thanks to a succession of injuries, Shockey now gets by on nastiness and his very good blocking. Shockey can still catch, but it's likely to be a six-yard safety check rather than a 17-yard square out of his Giants days. Veteran Billy Miller is now the top receiving tight end in town, though he can't touch Shockey in terms of blocking, tattoos, or braggadocio. They took a flier and picked up Martrez Milner, whom the Falcons wisely let go after watching him bumble, stumble, and fumble for two seasons. He will compete with Browns castoff Darnell Dinkins for the #3 spot, which sees the field in this offense about as often as Bill Simmons writing a piece without a factual error or three.
OL: The starting five is very good. A thick-legged Pro Bowler at left tackle, Jammal Brown sets quickly and uses his hands well. He has issues with speed on the edge (see the Carolina games), and holds too much, but Brown is a pretty good bookend tackle and a very strong run blocker on the left side. His right side counterpart, Jon Stinchcomb, is often referred to as the weak point of the line, but that's a reflection on top-end skill level and not effectiveness. Stinchcomb knows his limitations and how to minimize them, and he sets a great edge for runs and screens. What he lacks in athleticism he makes up for in effort, professionalism, and veteran savvy. The depth outside is thin and will be tested early, as Brown is expected to miss at least the first two games with sports hernia surgery. The replacement will likely be young Jermon Bushrod, a Mel Kiper Jr. draft special who has scant experience. Zack Strief is very tall and plays like it, but he has some snarl and decent pass protect skill as the reserve right tackle.
The interior line features right guard Jahri Evans, another Pro Bowler and a punishing run blocker. Powerfully built and blessed with some of the strongest hands you could ever shake. He's quick on his feet for his girth, and recovers quickly from executing a cut block. It's not often you see a 320-pound guard cut a tackle, get up, and make a block 15 yards downfield on a safety, but Evans did just that against Atlanta last year. Left guard Carl Nicks stepped in when Jamar Nesbit got hurt, then played so well they kept him in once Nesbit was back. Huge, nasty, and surprisingly quick on his feet (notice a theme here?), Nicks has successfully put character concerns behind him, channeling his negative energy into punishing defenders in run blocking. He is the weakest pass blocker on the line, however. Jonathan Goodwin is a solid all-around center who capably filled the large shoes of Jeff Faine. He's not as quick or testy as Faine, but his shotgun snaps are consistently perfect and he gets outside well on screens. Veteran Nick Leckey offers some depth at center, while the Wally Pipp-ed Nesbit remains as the top reserve guard, and a darn fine one at that.
Defense:
DL: It's put up or shut up time for the two high-priced, under-performing ends. Will Smith and Charles Grant could be among the very best 1-2 punches in the league, but last year they rated near the bottom. Smith has been one of the best all-around ends in the NFL at times, able to bring the heat on the passer but also very stout against the run. At times. Those times will start later, as both Smith and Grant will serve four-game suspensions as part of the ridiculous Starcaps fiasco. Grant is flashier but also less likely to make a big play, if that makes any sense. He struggled to finish sacks and wasn't as quick around the edge last year, a season dogged by injuries. Like Smith, Grant is good against the run and rarely loses backside containment, but they're paying him for sacks, not making tackles on two-yard gains.
While the starters are suspended, veterans Bobby McCray and Paul Spicer will start. Former teammates in Jacksonville, they are competent reserves best suited for limited duty. McCray is notoriously streaky, so if his hot spell comes early the team won't miss Grant and Smith as much. Spicer is a high-character, high-effort career #3 defensive end who can make plays in the backfield. Behind those two the pickings are slim, as veteran journeyman Anthony Hargrove has been getting more work at tackle. Jeff Charleston netted three sacks last year, two of which were complete gifts, but the team has higher hopes than you would think for him.
The inside linemen must play to their potential as well. The key is second-year tackle Sedrick Ellis, who flashed the dynamic ability as a rookie but must bring it more consistently. Fiercely strong and very active, Ellis needs to stop wasting effort and refine his hand punch and footwork while he's being blocked. His quickness for his size makes him a legit threat up the gut to make plays in the backfield, and his four sacks are impressive for a rookie interior lineman. His development is paramount because he's the only true difference maker inside. Kendrick Clancy is the other starter, and the universal description "serviceable starter" fits him well. DeMario Pressley has some youthful potential and will be part of the rotation in what will essentially be his rookie year. He is of the quicker/lighter tackle mold. Rod Coleman is a lunchpail reserve who offers leadership and presence, while Remi Ayodele adds mass in short-yardage packages.
LB: New Orleans finally found a man in the middle with Jonathan Vilma, and they rewarded him with a nice extension. He earned every penny while flying all over the field, racking up tackles and cleaning up what other mates started. Vilma noticeably improved in coverage in 2008 as well. His leadership and pre-snap savvy are invaluable to a coordinator like Gregg Williams, who will toy with mixing up fronts and schemes.
The rest of the linebacker corps leaves a lot to be desired. Scott Fujita and Scott Shanle start on the outside, but both would ideally be top reserves on most defense. Fujita plays well in space and has a strong football IQ, but he's not a big hitter or a great tackler. He lacks the speed and hip flexibility to handle much in coverage, though his height allows him to get in the way. Shanle covers quite well, but he struggles to get off blocks or move through traffic to make plays. The duo has good chemistry together and they are adequate when the line holds its own, but neither is going to make many big plays or force turnovers. They need to hold up, because the backups are truly uninspiring. Jo-Lonn Dunbar is the top reserve and also the only one who makes the team for a reason other than special teams. In that regard, Anthony Waters was a nice pickup. Expect the Saints to scour the waiver wire for a faster veteran backup. They drafted Stanley Arnoux in the fourth round with high hopes, but he's lost for the year already.
DB: Extreme Makeover, Saints edition has gone down the past couple of seasons, and finally New Orleans has a group worthy of praise. Tracy Porter was on his way to all-rookie status before breaking his wrist, and the former Hoosier has all the ability to be a legit #1 corner. Physical for his size and with great ball skills, Porter showed sound fundamentals and technique and more toughness than expected. He is adept in man coverage, which Coach Williams deploys liberally. Starting with Porter will be Randall Gay, who was solid in coverage last year but makes few plays. Gay has issues tackling after the catch -- a team-wide plague -- but he's actually among the most successful cover men in the league in terms of completion percentage to guys he's covering. Jabari Greer comes over as a free agent and is a nice fit with his scrappy, all-out style. He's a good hitter for his size and isn't afraid to help in run support. When compared to Jason David, whose roster spot he usurped, it's a monumental upgrade.
But perhaps the biggest renovation is first round pick Malcolm Jenkins. The former Buckeye is huge, physical, technically sound, confident, and suitably chippy. He gets knocked for his lack of top-end speed, but as Mike Mayock, the NFL Network's draft guru, said to me at the Combine, "How fast does he need to be when nobody ever gets past him?" There is some talk of Jenkins moving to safety, but he has the potential to be an elite shutdown corner, and he has the size to handle the big, physical wideouts that are all over the New Orleans schedule in 2009. Camp pickup Greg Fassitt offers depth, if he can beat out Leigh Torrence for the gig. Usama Young has moved to safety but could theoretically still play some dime corner if needed. Take a deep breath, but this might be the deepest corner group in the entire league and is certainly the best in the NFC South.
Ah, the safeties. The nice way to say it is that the renovation is underway but the Saints still need a new roof. Veteran Darren Sharper takes over the free safety spot mainly because: a) nobody else wanted him, and b) it's hard to play any worse than anyone they've had there in recent years. Sharper gets by on reputation and guile, as his speed is long gone. Still, he earned that rep with years of strong, heady play, and that doesn't go away overnight. The strong safety spot goes to Roman Harper, a big hitter who was asked to do far too much. In Williams' system, Harper should be more of a traditional in-the-box run stuffing safety, which suits him well as he's not good in coverage and lacks range. Harper was bad enough in coverage that twice last year he got flagged for pass interference more than 20 yards down the field, only to have the receiver still catch the ball. The aforementioned Young will see action in nickel packages and he has very good ball skills, but he is soft against the run and doesn't break out of his backpedal well -- hence the move to safety, where he won't have to backpedal as much. Rookie Chip Vaughn is similar to Harper, though how similar is a good question as he's missed camp with injury.
Special Teams: New Orleans goes through kickers like my 11-month old goes through diapers, and that apparently will continue in 2009. The kicker that finally offered long-term stability, Garrett Hartley, is suspended for four games for substance violations. That leaves the door open for yet another kicker, though it appears the Saints are settling with ancient John Carney. They will also have a new punter, drafting SMU's Thomas Morstead. A favorite of mine from Senior Bowl week, Morstead has fantastic accuracy and great hang time, which should help the just-average coverage units. The return units are fantastic as the Saints are chock full of worthy return men. Reggie Bush has amazing potential as a punt returner, further echoing my Eric Metcalf comparison. Courtney Roby, Pierre Thomas, and Skyler Green all offer capable options as kick returners, as does Bush if the coaches decide he needs a spark. Two new acquisitions should help all the coverage and return units -- Heath Evans and Anthony Waters.
3 Keys To The Season:
1. Anytime a team puts up astronomical numbers on offense like the Saints did last year, a regression is inevitable. The key for New Orleans is to manage that yardage regression without sacrificing points on the scoreboard. They can afford a 15% drop in passing yards but not a 15% drop in points scored.
2. The revamped secondary must play better, and the pass rush up front must enable them to do so. As Tim Ryan loves to say, "Pressure pick, Cover sack." The pieces are in place at both ends, but those ends must meet.
3. Avoiding the heart-wrenching loss. The Saints lost five games last season where they held the lead or were tied in the fourth quarter. The late-game mistakes need to stop.
Forecast: It's real easy to get enamored with the Saints and their explosive offense. Drew Brees & Co. can outscore anyone, anywhere. But football is just as much about stopping the other team from scoring, and in that regard the Saints are still a huge question mark. I like the overhaul at cornerback, but the front seven is weak unless the two ends really pick it up. New Orleans has a dangerously favorable early schedule; the first four weeks feature Detroit, Philadelphia, Buffalo, and the New York Jets, then the bye week. Other than the Philly game the Saints should be favored, but could very easily lose to any, even the Lions in the opener. I think they'll avoid some of the late-game collapses that marred last season, and I like the aggressiveness of new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams to elevate the defensive play just enough to pull off a few more turnovers and correlating wins. New Orleans finishes 10-6 and gets back into the playoffs in 2009.
-- Jeff Risdon is RealGM's senior football writer. He may be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com. |
