| Jeff Risdon. 24th August, 2009 - 2:34 pm
 2008 record: 4-12, 3rd in NFC West
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: -7, Sack Differential: -1, Point Differential: -98
Coming In: WR TJ Houshmandzadeh, DT Cory Redding, CB Ken Lucas, DT Colin Cole, TE John Owens, FB Justin Griffith, G Grey Ruegamer
Going Out: LB Julian Peterson, WR Bobby Engram, RB Maurice Morris, G Floyd Womack, FB Leonard Weaver, G Mike Wahle, TE Will Heller, DT Howard Green, DT Rocky Bernard, WR Koren Robinson
Key Rookies: LB Aaron Curry, OL Max Unger, WR Deon Butler
Offense:
QB: This is a tale of two teams. If Matt Hasselbeck is back from his back woes, the Seahawks are set with a very good starter and a pretty solid backup. If the back woes come back, Seneca Wallace is a marginal starter and they're in serious trouble if anything happens to him. Past history indicates Hasselbeck is due; he's made the Pro Bowl in every odd-numbered year he's been a starter. His pinpoint accuracy and pocket awareness are his best attributes. Still agile and with a stronger arm than he gets credit for, Hasselbeck should rebound from his interception- and injury-plagued 2008.
Wallace relieved Hasselbeck and provided some welcome relief to the Seahawks, who were unsure if he could handle being a starter. He is quite mobile (they've used him at wide receiver in the past) and sees the field well. Wallace was extra careful with the ball, sometimes to a fault. The team now has confidence in Wallace as a quality backup, but he's still not someone they want starting more than two or three games again. Rookie Mike Teel has some upside as the #3 if he is the Mike Teel that finished the season at Rutgers last near and not the one that started it.
RB: The heat is on in Seattle, and it's not just the scorching summer weather. Julius Jones disappointed as the feature back, losing twice as many fumbles (4) as touchdowns that he scored (2). He struggled to find holes behind a patchwork line, but was far too easy to knock off stride and bring down when he found a crease. Despite those knocks, he still averaged an impressive 4.4 yards per carry and has a wonderful tendency to always fall forward at full extension. Not afraid to lower his head, Jones' effort cannot be questioned. Jones has better speed than he showed last year, and much of what hindered him last year appears to have been remedied. Expect a fine redemptive year for Julius Jones, in part because he doesn't have to do it all himself.
T.J. Duckett has earned the moniker "Touchdown Vulture" from fantasy geeks for his short-yardage proclivity. Duckett has never quite moved beyond that role, despite the fact he does have some speed for his big size and has very nice feet. He's one of the best, most consistent short-yardage pounders in the game -- he averaged just 2.8 yards per carry but 43 of his 62 carries resulted in first downs, including 8 touchdowns. At the other end of the running back spectrum is #3 man Justin Forsett, he of the diminutive scatback family. He's not lacking for mass like many in that category, but he runs light on his feet and can quickly plant and change direction. The team expects bigger things from him in 2009 and he has the potential to deliver. As insurance, the Seahawks picked up undrafted rookie Devin Moore, who is a similar type of player but a little more powerful. Seattle has been rewarded by being patient with lesser-regarded depth players in the past, and Moore is a good candidate to keep that going.
Owen Schmitt takes over as the full-time fullback, and he is a stylistic departure from Leonard Weaver. Schmitt is a sledgehammer blocker; watching him play reminds me of Metallica's Seek and Destroy. He might not touch the ball 10 times, and Schmitt celebrated Weaver's departure by getting a DUI. But if he gets his head back on straight he will help Jones & Co. in the running game, and all indications are Schmitt learned from his mistake.
WR/TE: T.J. Houshmandzadeh (hereafter T.J. for this challenged typist) is exactly what the doctor ordered for Seattle's passing game, a reliable high-end talent that can capably play the X, Y, or even the Z receiver spot. Of course, you cannot mention the Seattle wideouts without mentioning the doctor, as this position has been ravaged like no other team has ever experienced in recent times. It makes assessing exactly what they have tough, but the potential for a real strong unit is in place. With T.J. and his 95+ catches for 1,000+ yards and 7-10 touchdowns entering the picture, the rest of the group won't be pressed to play above their heads. Nate Burleson has good size and great wheels, but he's coming off a torn ACL and cannot afford to lose any of his speed or quickness. He is the primary downfield threat and, when healthy, has been above-average in that capacity. Deion Branch has battled injury after injury since signing a lucrative free agent deal before the 2006 season, and how much he has left is an open question. Before all the injuries blunted his speed, Branch reliably got open in the intermediate route area and could make some hay after the catch. Now he's penciled in as the slot receiver, but that doesn't fit his skill set -- he's not quick enough. Rookie Deon Butler most certainly is, and his impressive summer probably vaulted him over the unreliable Branch as the third receiver. Prolific in college in Bobby Engram's role in the unchanged-in-40-years Penn State offense, Butler now takes over Engram's role in Seattle's offense as the underneath slot man and designated third down target. His unexpectedly physical blocking is a nice bonus and a rarity for this unit (T.J. is a capable but underwhelming blocker).
The Seahawks have a cadre of reserve receivers that all got some experience while the top three guys battled injuries last year. The best of the lot is Jordan Kent, who has great size and showed he knew how to use it in college at Oregon. Courtney Taylor, Ben Obomanu, Michael Bumpus, and Mike Haas are all fighting for the final spot, which is more valuable in Seattle than most places as the injury history dictates they’re likely to see the field at some point.
Tight end is in good hands with John Carlson, who turned in a fine rookie season. The Notre Dame product led the Seahawks in receptions and yardage, a rare feat for tight ends. That was a function of all the wideout injuries, but Carlson is a legit weapon with sure hands and a high football IQ. I boldly predict that Carlson will finish as one of the top-five fantasy football tight ends in 2009. John Owens takes over the blocking tight end role, a spot he performed without much description in Detroit. He is a better pass protector than run blocker.
OL: It simply cannot get any worse than last year, when all five starters wound up on I.R. and the coaching staff scrambled for healthy bodies on a weekly basis. A healthy return from future Hall Of Fame left tackle Walter Jones will be the most welcome, though that return is questionable. At 35 and coming off microfracture surgery to his knee, Jones is iffy for the first couple of games while he recovers from additional knee surgery. If he cannot get back to full strength quickly, the line loses its best player and the scrambling continues. Right tackle Sean Locklear can flip to play the left side, but his more physical style and slower feet make him a better fit on the right side, where he is one of the better ones in the league. Veteran guard Mike Wahle retired rather than fight back from a shoulder injury, which leaves the guard spots in flux as well. Rob Sims is competent on the left side but has never been much of a pass blocker, and he's been plagued with injuries his entire career. He missed all but one game last year with a torn pectoral muscle that was worse than it actually sounds. Right guard has several suitors, the best of which appears to be Mansfield Wrotto. The bulky Wrotto finished the season as the starter and the pass protection noticeably improved with his presence. Ray Willis offers more agility and experience, but expect Wrotto to keep the gig. Plus if Locklear does indeed move to left tackle to replace Jones, Willis becomes the default starter at right tackle. That represents a downgrade at both tackle spots, though it's hard to fathom being any more chaotic than last year, and Willis hasn't been bad in spurts there. Steve Vallos offered a little pop in 2008 and will now provide depth. Grey Ruegamer comes from the Giants, where he was a pretty effective sixth lineman, but like Jagermeister is best used in small doses.
There is some competition at center. Incumbent Chris Spencer has never met expectations since Seattle took him in the first round in 2005. He's just not assertive enough and has never mastered making line calls, a requisite skill for a center. The challenger is rookie Max Unger, the team's second round pick. Unger has versatility, playing all over the line in college, and many evaluators (myself included) believe his best position is guard. But Unger has been the star of the summer thus far with his physical tenacity and quickness to make adjustments. I'm still skeptical after watching him get annihilated at Senior Bowl workouts, where he badly struggled with both snapping the ball and also taking on bulky tackles. It takes a man to admit when one is wrong, and if Unger keeps it up, I'll be a man (I'm not 40 though) and offer him a hearty handshake for a job well done. So will Seahawks fans desperate for help up front. At least they all look the same now; the entire line recently got matching Mohawks, save the already bald Wrotto. Cheesy team-building gimmicks like that rarely work and are often a sign of impending peril.
Defense:
DL: This unit will feature two new starters that add much-needed size. Wide-bodied Colin Cole comes in as the one-technique nose tackle, which kicks Brandon Mebane out to the three-technique tackle spot. This works out better for both players; Cole adds 25+ pounds up the gut and is more comfortable in the "hold the line" role, while Mebane's quickness and innate ability to wiggle through gaps (if a 310 pound guy can ever wiggle) are a perfect fit in the Tommie Harris role of playmaking interior lineman. The young Mebane is a rising star, and playing next to the beefy, tough Cole should help launch him to the next level.
Former Lion Cory Redding will start at right end, where he is on the big and slow side. He'll also play tackle in the nickel package (replacing Cole), where he's on the small side but a better fit. A high-effort player that does a lot of things that don't show up on box scores, Redding's versatility and all-around competence bring more value than most people think. He knows the scheme and can still get to the quarterback from time to time. Patrick Kerney is the left end, and his health is a major question mark. The pass rush struggled without him at the end of the season (he didn't play after Halloween), and the aging Kerney has had shoulder surgery three years in a row. He makes his living beating guys with his legs, but if he cannot demonstrate the ability to power inside the opposing offensive line can adjust and take away his outside tack. Lawrence Jackson had about three good quarters as a rookie pass rush specialist. He and Darryl Tapp will battle for that role again. I have long admired Tapp, ever since he ran down Vernon Davis from behind some 30 yards downfield in college, but the former Hokie lacks mass and plays like it. Baraka Atkins is even smaller and not as fast, but offers more stoutness against the run off the bench. Big Red Bryant has some upside as Cole's understudy and should take over the primary interior reserve role from Craig Terrill. A couple of rookies -- Nick Reed and Michael Bennett -- have flashed some ability in camp and preseason and should stick somewhere, if not here.
If Kerney is healthy and Redding capably handles the flex role, this group could be a real pleasant surprise. But if the pass rush is a detriment once again, the entire defense is going to suffer. The front four must get consistent pressure in the Tampa-2 base scheme. If they do, it's the Bears and Bucs in their Super Bowl seasons; when they don't, it can turn into the 0-16 Detroit Lions.
LB: The starters are as talented as any threesome in the league and the focal point of the defense. In Lofa Tatupu, Leroy Hill, and rookie Aaron Curry the Seahawks have a young, talented, versatile grouping that can thrive regardless of scheme. Tatupu has led the team in tackles each of the past four seasons and flows quickly all over the field from his middle linebacker spot. Rarely out of position and very quick to make the proper defensive call, Tatupu was hindered by a bad groin that took away from his ability in coverage. Now that the groin is fine, expect Tatupu to thrive as the Mike in the Tampa-2 base. Leroy Hill is a big-time hitter who earned the franchise tag before agreeing to a long-term deal. Smart move by general manager Tim Ruskell, because Hill is invaluable to the Seattle defense. He is the best blitzer of the group, and despite the switch to the more conservative Tampa-2, expect Seattle to still bring some dogs and unconventional rushes -- with Hill as the centerpiece. Hill plays a lot bigger than his stature and is one of the best run defenders in the game.
Veteran Julian Peterson is gone (for Cory Redding), replaced by first round rookie Aaron Curry. Seriously considered as the #1 overall pick, Curry is a versatile star-in-the-making with no apparent holes in his game. That's good, because Peterson was the top rush linebacker and the best of the talented trio in coverage last year. Curry can play any of the linebacker spots capably, which is important because Hill and Tatupu both play at break-neck speed, which resulted in Hill missing four games with a bad neck. D.D. Lewis is a solid backup, a former starter who provides maximum effort and all-around competence. He is a great fit for the new scheme as well. Will Herring is a thumping reserve, and David Hawthorne has his moments as well. This group is one of the best positional units in all of football -- premium play-making talent with versatility and depth.
DB: There is talent here, but it must play at a more consistent higher level. The main talent/culprit is cornerback Marcus Trufant, who had a fantastic 2007 but tailed off in 2008. Some of that is a function of inactivity, as teams avoided throwing the ball anywhere near him whenever possible. Trufant is good, but he's not ignore-his-side-of-the-field good, and teams picked on his rustiness with some success. His best attributes are his quickness while the ball is in the air and his anticipation of routes. He should benefit immensely from the return to Seattle of Ken Lucas, who comes back after an uneven tenure in Carolina. A bigger, more physical cover man than Seattle has had since he left, Lucas and Trufant as a duo complement one another nicely and allow the coaches to do more situational matchups. It also slides young Josh Wilson into his more natural slot nickel position, where his lack of size but short-area quickness fit better. He's also reliable at peeling off and making open-field tackles. The elephant in the room is the bitter draft bust that is Kelly Jennings, who has played his way from starter to barely hanging on the roster. He is statistically one of the worst corners in the league, and the game films back up the numbers. Kevin Hobbs is tougher and smarter and could usurp Jennings' role, if he even has one anymore.
*Trufant is battling a "disk issue" in his back that will likely keep him out of the opener, perhaps longer. If he misses significant time, this group goes from being fine to being a major question.
Deon Grant and Brian Russell start at safety, an uninspiring duo that did not play well in 2008. Grant regressed horribly from 2007, and not all of that can be hung on a balky knee. He's just not aggressive enough in run support, though he can still flash the range in coverage and has decent ball skills. Playing more Cover-2 should help mitigate his weaknesses. That cannot be said for Russell, a truly good guy in over his head as a starter these days. To play free safety you have to have good coverage range, closing speed, and a nose for the ball. Russell lacks them all, and other teams know it. Jordan Babineaux sees significant action in nickel packages and is much quicker, though he lacks Russell's instincts. He offers some pop and versatility, filling in nicely as the nickel corner when called upon. Rookie Courtney Greene is a hit-or-miss thumper with good size and some upside.
Special Teams: After carrying two kickers all of last year but never using rookie Brandon Couto, the Seahawks appear to have finally settled on installing the Georgia product as their full-time kicker. With Olindo Mare missing most of camp with a knee injury, Couto has stepped up, showing off the big leg that got him drafted. Jon Ryan is an upgrade over mercifully cut Ryan Plackemeier at punter, but he's in the lower echelon of punters. Return specialist is an open competition, with Justin Forsett having the most potential amongst the contenders, which also includes Josh Wilson and Deon Butler. The coverage units are difficult to gauge as the rash of injuries leaves the group ripe for shakeups, but they generally performed well.
3 Keys To The Season:
1. Last season was a lost year, due in large part to injuries. How quickly and effectively the walking wounded return to full strength is the biggest "if" in Seattle.
2. The revamped defensive front and iffy secondary must take to the new Tampa-2 based scheme.
3. The offensive line must step up to give the premium talent at the skill positions enough opportunities to do their magic.
Forecast: Last year I picked Seattle as one of the combatants in the NFC title game before injuries and a bad combination of no pass rush and spotty coverage doomed Mike Holmgren's finale. Health is still a major concern, as Jones, Trufant, Hasselbeck, and Branch are all gimpy heading into the season. I like the defense to improve under new coach Mora, but the offense will only be as good as the front line, and that group concerns me more than a little. I can see this team rising back to the top of the NFC West and running away with the weak division, but as Lee Corso says, "Not so fast my friends." They'll be better, but unless they're fully healthy all year this Seahawks team maxes out at eight wins. The schedule isn't too taxing -- not one Eastern time zone roadie, which probably bumps up that total a notch. Seattle finishes 9-7, but that should be enough for a return to the playoffs. |
