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| Jeff Risdon. 17th August, 2009 - 10:57 am
 2008 record: 8-8, won AFC West, lost in Divisional Round
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: +4, Sack Differential: +3, Point Differential: +92
Coming In: LB Kevin Burnett
Going Out: G Mike Goff, DE Igor Olshansky, LB Matt Wilhelm
Key Rookies: OLB Larry English, G Louis Vasquez
Offense
QB: Philip Rivers is quickly becoming one of the NFL?s best quarterbacks and leaders. The returning league leader in QB rating, Rivers improved upon his yards per completion and subsequently upped his TD total as well. Big, strong and blessed with great accuracy all over the field, Rivers throws a very catchable ball. His play-action fake dramatically improved in 2008. That is despite a strange delivery and a smaller-caliber rifle than many others. The only thing more awkward than his delivery is watching him scramble, though he does throw very well while moving. Rivers tends to lock in to certain receivers, riding the hot hand and leaving the other wideouts withering on the vine, but the WRs appear to accept in by knowing they might be the hot hand next.
Billy Volek is a former starter who provides many similar traits as Rivers as the backup. The team trusts him, and there shouldn?t be dramatic dropoff if Rivers goes down for a week or two. Volek is among the highest paid backups in the league for a reason. Charlie Whitehurst holds the clipboard, though some of his teammates have said he?s worthy of being a #2 QB. Coach Norv Turner?s offense is in very capable hands indeed.
RB: The 2008 season proved LaDainian Tomlinson is indeed human. After a torrid run of exceptional seasons to start his career, LT slumped to his lowest output since his rookie season. Some of that is due to injuries, but there is a lot of mileage on those tires. How much is left is open for debate, but I believe LT is due for a nice, though not outstanding, bounceback season. For him, that means 1250 or so yards, 4.3 yards per carry, and 12-15 TDs. He?s still got bounce in his step and unparalleled vision even if the top gear isn?t what it used to be. LT also remains a viable threat as a receiver out of the backfield as a safety valve that can make the first tackler miss.
LT?s burden is lessened by the emergence of diminutive Darren Sproles. The Chargers signed him to a lucrative deal to keep him in the fold a year after watching Michael Turner bolt to stardom in Atlanta. Sproles is one of the shortest players in the league, but he is lightning quick and can start and stop in an instant, changing directions sharply at full speed. He?s essentially a niche player--he has made just 18 attempts in 4 seasons between the tackles (thanks Pro Football Weekly!)--and he caught 23 of his 29 receptions last year behind the line of scrimmage. Sproles does amazing things after the catch and in the open field. He?s a unique weapon, which is a challenge for both the opponent and the San Diego coaching staff. Clearly they feel confident enough in Sproles, but they?re paying him near feature back money to be a moderately used backup. Expect 100-120 carries at about 4.5 yards per crack, and another 45-50 catches for 600 or so yards, which aren?t great numbers but are a great complement to LT, assuming Tomlinson isn?t washed up yet.
Rookie Gartrell Johnson burst onto the scene late and has kept the momentum rolling through camp, probably earning the #3 RB job and offering some short-yardage options. Jacob Hester struggled as a rookie FB/RB hybrid, but he?s bulked up significantly and has too much value on special teams to see many touches. Mike Tolbert is more of a traditional blocking FB, though like Hester he is also a quite effective receiver. Because the Chargers throw the ball to their backs more than just about any other team, those receiving skills are a vital requisite.
WR/TE: Here?s a quick credibility check you can apply when evaluating pundits: ask them to name the best wide receiver on the Chargers. The obvious answer is Chris Chambers, but the real answer is Vincent Jackson. Chambers is incredibly streaky and can be a legit #1 at times, but between his propensity for losing snaps to minor injuries and tendency to juggle catches, he?s better served in his role with the Chargers: running intermediate outs and skinny posts, changing speeds and using his body well, making a few highlight reel toe-taps, and getting about 45 catches. Jackson is built like a tight end at 6?5? and 235 but has deceptive long speed. He dramatically improved his ability to get off the line clean, and no DB in the league is going to out jump or out fight Jackson for the ball in the air. He has earned Rivers? trust and is also an adept blocker.
Malcolm Floyd sure doesn?t look like a slot receiver, but he filled the role nicely last season. At 6?5? he gives the Chargers yet more height at WR, proving valuable in red zone and short yardage situations. He?s in a contract year, which typically results in a nice spike in production as he chases his next contract. San Diego almost never goes 4-wide, but Legedu Naanee should capture the #4 job ahead of el busto Craig ?Buster? Davis, who would have been cut two seasons ago had he not been their 1st round pick that year. Rookie Demetrius Byrd, like Davis a former LSU Tiger, has some upside but needs a lot of development. Kassim Osgood is officially listed on the roster as a WR, but he is almost exclusively a special teams player, and a darn good one.
One of the reasons the Chargers don?t use 3 and 4 WR sets as often as most teams is the fact they have one of the best tight ends in the game in Antonio Gates. Though I?ve always found him a tad overrated, Gates is undeniably a sure-handed downfield threat and a real load with the ball in his hands. He fought through a barrage of nagging injuries last year that blunted his production, but still came close to his standard season of 75 catches for 975 yards and 10 touchdowns. Expect those numbers in 2009, if not a few more receptions, particularly if the running game sputters a bit. Gates would be a very good blocking tight end even without his great receiving skills. Brandon Manumaleuna is a quality second banana who accepts his role as an extra tackle who gets a ball or two thrown his way every week. In his three seasons in San Diego he has exactly one reception more than 10 yards down the field. Kris Wilson is more of an H-back but has some receiving skills as the #3 TE.
OL: This group is talented but needs to play with more consistency. LT Marcus McNeill got off to a real slow start after making the Pro Bowl in his first two seasons, but the goliath rounded into form as the season progressed. Not many guys his size (6?7?, 330ish) are as light on their feet or as quick to make athletic moves as McNeill. When he gets his arms extended, the defender has no prayer. McNeill has issues making quick engagement with shorter defenders in run blocking (that?s common for tall guys) but he reliably moves the blockers backwards. His health bears watching, as he did undergo neck surgery shortly after last season ended.
At least he has a lot of help around him. LG Kris Dielman is a very good all-around blocker who attacks defenders like a Pantera fan approaches Michael Bolton fans. He is an instigator and an exceptional drive blocker. Center Nick Hardwick is more Tesla to Dielman?s Pantera, but he is equally effective at what he does. Hardwick rarely misses calls and fires out to the second level well. He can get caught too high by quicker 0-techniques, but he fights through it. Right tackle Jeromey Clary is a converted guard and plays as such--mauling, leaning, strong hands, great lower body strength, lacks quickness. He is prone to flat-out whiffing, the cardinal sin of pass protection, but is the best short-yardage blocker on the team.
The Chargers have themselves a nice camp battle for the RG spot, replacing the spot vacated when longtime vet Mike Goff was (wisely) not retained. Kynan Forney has experience and the requisite nastiness, but he is being pushed by 3rd rounder Louis Vasquez, who is bigger, stronger, and apparently just as surly. Forney is better suited to pulling and combo blocking than Vasquez, who comes from stand-up shotgun spread blocking at Texas Tech. It?s not ideal, but at least the depth up the gut won?t be bad between the loser of the RG battle and Scot Mruczkowksi, who has played well in spurts in the past. Backup center is another open spot, but rookie Tyronne Green offers some long-term potential. LJ Shelton is the top backup at tackle, which is not good news for Philip Rivers.
Defense
DL: Nose tackle Jamal Williams is the greybeard of the defense but remains a vital cog. He plugs up the middle of the field and two opposing blockers on every snap, but he has enough power and quickness to get off those double teams and make some plays. There are few better interior run defenders in the league, though his age (33) and terminally wonky knees bear close watching. Left end Luis Castillo is a great complement to Williams, and the two form a highly effective front wall. Two-thirds of one, anyways. Castillo has very good quickness for his size and uses his hands very well to shed blocks. Both chase down screens well and eliminate any chance for cutback runs to their side.
Right end is a different story. Igor Olshansky is gone and won?t be missed near as much as you might think for a pretty decent player. The Chargers drafted massive Canadian Vaughn Martin to get a shot at filling the void, and he will compete with Ryan Bingham for the starting gig. Martin has intriguing potential but is essentially making the jump from high school-level ball. Improving the run defense and adding toughness is paramount, with any sort of pass rush being some tasty gravy. Jacques Cesaire is an experienced backup who can handle himself in limited duty and is the best pass rusher of the group. Former Bear Ian Scott is trying to revive his career and add depth, with Keith Grennan standing tall in his way.
LB: The return of Shawne Merriman turns this unit from pretty good to downright great, assuming he is fully recovered from the nasty knee injury that wiped out his 2008. He brings the dynamic pass rush that this defense lacked last season, and the way offenses adjust to account for ?Lights Out? frees up the other rushers to get better opportunities. Merriman is lightning quick around the edge but has the physical strength to do more than just speed rush around the end. He hits with rare authority and power, though his run defense awareness is sometimes lacking. The other OLB is Shaun Phillips, who is faster but not as physical. He is an ideal complement to Merriman and clearly missed his running mate last season. Phillips plays with a heady savvy and is very good in space. Both starters have had their fill of off-field problems--testing positive for steroids, assaulting security guards--which makes having a third banana a requisite. To that end the Chargers drafted Larry English, a similar athlete (though smaller at ?just? 255) noted for being fast off the edge but not overly reliant on just his speed. English wasn?t a prolific sack artist at Northern Illinois, but the potential is clearly there and he has impressed in camp. Jyles Tucker has some juice as a pass rusher with great speed (notice a theme here?), though he tends to take too wide an angle and is not a very good tackler.
With all the focus on rushing the passer outside, the Chargers depend on the ILBs to do a lot of dirty work. Stephen Cooper fills that role nicely with his solid tackling and sound instincts. He?s not a playmaker but is the type of facilitator that allows Merriman to basically eschew ever playing the run and not kill the defense. He is quick to diagnose plays and rarely gets caught up in traffic, though he?s not a thumping hitter. The other ILB role is up for grabs, with former Cowboy Kevin Burnett having the inside track based on his skills in coverage. Tim Dobbins is a serviceable backup but strictly a janitor, cleaning up tackles others started. Brandon Siler provides youthful depth and is a bigger hitter than Dobbins. Local collegians Antwan Applewhite and Eric Bahktiari would not be around if they weren?t locals, though Applewhite has some upside with his hitting and speed.
DB: Will the real Antonio Cromartie please stand up? In his stellar rookie season, the athletic dynamo picked off a league-high 10 passes and showed solid cover skills with an exceptional ability to play the ball in the air. His second season last year can best be summed up with a scene from the movie We Are Marshall. The heart and soul of the team, Nate Ruffin (brilliantly played by Anthony Mackie), tries to gut it out despite a bad injury that the offense is obviously exploiting. Ruffin?s issue was a bum shoulder, while Cromartie played 2008 with a broken hip. Opponents figured out pretty quickly that Cromartie couldn?t adjust to a double move or plant hard and accelerate out of a break. He got by on his amazing size/speed combo and apparently some amazing pain tolerance, but he went from being a playmaking demon to an ordinary, penalty-prone #2 corner. Veteran Quentin Jammer admirably picked up a lot of the slack and remains a very solid, reliable, physical corner, albeit one with rocks for hands. But Cromartie is a special talent, like Merriman, and if he?s back to his rookie form this defense is as good as any in the league. If he?s the 2008 version, it?s one that might be good but is vulnerable. Antoine Cason played well as the nickel during his rookie campaign, living up to his first round billing and excelling at quickly wrapping up receivers after they caught short passes. Cletis Gordon and rookie Brandon Hughes are competing for the dime spot, not an insignificant position in a division with two Belichick prot?g?s noted for using multiple receiver sets. Gordon has better size and played reasonably well down the stretch last year, while Hughes is faster and has a higher ceiling. Steve Gregory is making the move to safety but is essentially a slow corner that could slide back in a pinch and provide some pop. Paul Oliver is also making the switch from CB to safety, and he should not be asked to move back.
Eric Weddle was solid at free safety, often exceptional in coverage and very quick to read the play. A sure tackler with some oomph in his hits, Weddle is a great building block in the secondary, though the team would quietly like him to force more turnovers. His 127 tackles were the second-highest of any DB in the league last year. San Diego has a camp battle waging for the strong safety job between incumbent Clinton Hart and rookie Kevin Ellison, with the aforementioned Gregory in the mix as well. Hart gets easily confused when more than one receiver enters his realm, often covering neither and getting caught flat-footed and useless. He is solid against the run and can lay out some intimidating hits, but if Ellison shows enough athletic ability--a legit question mark-- the job should be his. For all the incredible talent USC has had on defense the past few years, none have a higher football IQ than Ellison. With that many players in the mix the depth should be fine, perhaps even marketable should a needy team come calling.
Special Teams: San Diego is very solid here. Punter Mike Scifres had an incredible 40.1 yard net per punt, which is well above league average. His performance in the playoff game against Indy is the stuff of punting legend. Kicker Nate Kaeding had a bit of an off year but should bounce back nicely, though when kickoff distances decline like his did it rarely comes back. Darren Sproles is an electrifying return man who handles both punts and kicks, an increasing rarity. Kassim Osgood is one of the best cover men in the business, most notably at downing punts deep inside opposing territory.
3 Keys to the season
1. How effectively the three stars hindered by injuries in 2008 (Gates, Merriman, Cromartie) get back to 100%. If they?re all back to 2007 form, this is the best team in the NFL on paper. If not, they?re merely a top 5-8 team.
2. The Norv Turner factor. The embattled coach has had very talented teams in the past that have almost uniformly underachieved.
3. The running game must improve, both up front and in production from LT and Sproles.
Forecast: Assuming the walking wounded are back to their old selves, this team is primed for a deep playoff run. Their slow start and several strange finishes last season belie a team with impressive talent across the board and serious star power in key spots. Almost all the main players are hitting the primes of their careers, and they play in the weakest division in football. All that adds up to a 14-2 regular season, the #1 seed in the AFC, and a very legit chance to win a Super Bowl. |
