| Jeff Risdon. 7th August, 2009 - 2:49 pm
 2008 record: 12-4, Lost in Wild Card round
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: +9, Sack Differential: +16, Point Differential: +79
Coming In: DT Ed Johnson, LB Adam Seward
Going Out: WR Marvin Harrison, P Hunter Smith, CB Keiwan Ratliff, RB Dominic Rhodes
Key Rookies: RB Donald Brown, DT Fili Moala, P Pat McAfee, DT Terrance Taylor
Offense:
QB: Peyton Manning is in the midst of one of the most storied careers of any NFL player in history. After a slow start due to an injured knee, Manning got it rolling once again as the Colts stormed to victory in their final nine games. His average game during that span: 25-for-33 and 277 yards, with a total of 17 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and that includes the finale where he played just over one quarter. There is simply no better rhythm passer in NFL history. His impeccable accuracy and ability to properly read the defense set him apart from any other quarterback. While I tire of his pre-snap histrionics, Manning rarely checks to the wrong option, and all that motion and pointing clearly gets into the heads of the defense. His quick release compensates for his almost complete lack of mobility, though he is very adept at sidestepping and wringing out of potential sacks.
Manning has not missed a game to injury in his twelve seasons, a remarkable run that needs to continue. Longtime backup Jim Sorgi is well-versed in the system, but lacks the zip and touch (yes, those are opposites) that Manning puts on the ball. Curtis Painter travels down I-65 from Purdue to be the #3, a position the Colts have traditionally eschewed. That they intend to keep and develop Painter is a positive sign for the rookie, who has great physical tools but needs to control his frantic panic reactions.
RB: The Colts drafted Donald Brown in the first round to share duties with Joseph Addai. That gives the offense two first-round running backs from the last four drafts, which in theory should equate to a very good running game. That has not been the case recently, for a variety of reasons. Addai has been unable to stay healthy and is not the type of back who can be effective at less than 100%. Having a stable, healthy offensive line to block has been a recurring issue as well. Addai has yet to show the ability to make things happen, which is what prompted the Colts to draft him back in 2006. His tentative running and seeming unwillingness to churn for tough yards forced general manager Bill Polian to draft Brown. The UConn product is a more powerful, more aggressive runner who can withstand contact and keep his balance. He's also an incredibly bright, positive person with a great work ethic and a strong desire for self-improvement. If Addai doesn't bring his "A" game, this partnership could quickly turn into the Donald Brown show.
Michigan Man Mike Hart is the #3, and if he can stay healthy he should be a good one. His short legs have some serious miles on them for such a young player, however, and he is still recovering from a torn ACL. Lance "Bowling" Ball could stick as a short-yardage specialist. The team almost never uses anyone but the running back in the backfield and thus doesn't carry a fullback on the roster. Because none of the top three backs are taller than 5'11" and none break 210 pounds, durability could be an ongoing problem.
WR/TE: It will be quite strange to watch a Colts game and not see Marvin Harrison in the lineup, but the time was ripe for change. Harrison was clearly not his old self anymore, and Reggie Wayne had usurped him as the #1 wideout. Wayne is ultra-smooth and blessed with great hands and body control. He changes gears and uses all the subtle handiwork to consistently get great separation, and he and Manning have developed the vaunted mind-meld; just one look and they can alter a route seamlessly. Wayne has been the #1 WR in practice for years already and should threaten 100 catches for 1500 yards and 10 touchdowns.
The ripple effect of no more Marvin comes at the #2 and #3 spots. Anthony Gonzalez moves up to the #2 wide receiver as the former first round pick enters Year Three. Gonzalez has great hands and exudes toughness on underneath routes, but has yet to develop beyond a reliable possession receiver. The Colts need him to get downfield separation better and to make faster decisions as he slides outside from his home in the slot. Rookie Austin Collie projects as the #3, and early indications from camp are that he has seized upon the opportunity. He's more physical than Gonzalez and his college experience at BYU has prepared him well to play in the slot right away. Pierre Garcon has made strides towards getting on the field more. His speed and hands have always been there, but it has taken time to adjust from Mount Union to the NFL. Garcon has opened eyes with his offseason improvement. Pseudo H-Back Roy Hall brings size and blocking power to the table in short-yardage situations, though he has deceptive speed for a big man.
Tight end Dallas Clark is a freakish anomaly; he is a tight end in name only. Clark lines up almost exclusively in the slot and is rarely asked to block within five yards of the line of scrimmage. He is essentially an oversized slot receiver, and an exceptional one at that. His package of size, speed, and hands is a classic matchup problem -- too big for defensive backs, too fast for linebackers. Clark and Manning have a special chemistry that is clearly evident, making them one of the most prolific quarterback/tight end tandems in league history. If none of the above can fill the #3 wide receiver role, Clark could very well get 90+ catches for 1000+ yards, astonishing numbers for a tight end. Which of course he really isn't...
The Colts have high hopes for Gijon Robinson as the #2 tight end, though he has real competition from Jacob Tamme and Tom Santi. Robinson is shorter than ideal but is the best blocker of the trio, though that's akin to being the best Rob Schneider movie (Necessary Roughness gets my nod). All three are entering their second seasons, so it appears the Colts will have to part with a promising young tight end at some point this summer. Paging Scott Pioli or Rod Graves!
OL: Injuries ravaged this unit a year ago, but that might be a blessing for upcoming seasons. Center Jeff Saturday unexpectedly returns, after a salary cap bump enabled the team to keep him in the fold. Saturday is exceptionally quick and plays in total harmony with Manning. While he's not much of a force in run blocking, he can open holes with leverage. Saturday almost never gets beat up the gut by pass rushers. Ryan Lilja missed all of last season but returns to his starting left guard spot. He's about 20 pounds lighter than most guards but knows how to play the angles and is very quick. Like Saturday, he starts because of his pass protection skills and certainly not for his run blocking. Mike Pollak will start at right guard after a promising rookie season. He is the most physical interior blocker of the starters and adds much-needed sand in the pants. Two other second-year players, Jamey Richard and Steve Justice, provide the main depth inside. Both got extensive, unexpected playing time as rookies, and Richard in particular showed a very welcome nasty streak. Rookie widebody Jaimie Thomas could bump veteran Charlie Johnson back out to tackle.
The tackles could be a sore point. Ryan Diem is adequate on the right side, a classic jack-of-all, master-of-none players. He has Manning's trust and often has to make quick decisions on blitz pickup, as Dallas Clark is almost always split out. Tony Ugoh really needs to improve on the left side. The Colts sacrificed a first round pick to move up and draft him in 2007, but he has yet to deliver. Tentative and not nearly as tough as the Colts would like, Ugoh is negligible as a run blocker and is too easily pushed around by more physical pass rushers. He is playing for his Colts future this season. Don't be fooled by the freakishly low sack total -- credit there goes more to Manning's quick release and matador skills. Charlie Johnson slides back to reserve tackle from guard, where he wasn't real effective. Of course they initially moved him inside because Johnson wasn't much of a tackle either. The other backup tackle is Michael Toudouze, which does not inspire much confidence. Indianapolis is a prime candidate to scour the waiver wire for backup tackle help.
Defense:
DL: The two ends are premier pass rushers, but everything else about this line has been a weakness in recent years. Dwight Freeney is still as quick as anyone at getting to the quarterback around the edge, registering an absurd 28 hurries to go along with his 10.5 sacks. Freeney has also improved his run defense, though he can be very hit or miss; he makes an inordinate amount of plays in the backfield but rarely chases anything down that wasn't headed straight for him. He has learned to anchor himself and set the edge better than in his younger years. Left end Robert Mathis bested Freeney in sacks, netting 11.5, and he does it in significantly fewer snaps as he is essentially a situational sub. Raheem Brock plays end on run downs, then slides inside at times when Mathis comes in on passing downs. Young Marcus Howard offers depth, though at 230 pounds he was undersized at outside linebacker, let alone end.
New Coordinator Larry Coyer demanded more beef up front, tired of watching film of every Colts defensive tackle ending running plays on his butt three yards downfield. Mission accomplished, though how effective it will be is an open question. Rookie Fili Moala should start right away as the one-technique tackle. While at USC the hefty Moala showed consistent acumen at throwing his weight around and disrupting the interior line. He proudly declared in pre-draft interviews that his pants were never dirty on his butt, and game films back that claim. That sort of bedrock bulwark in the middle of the line is precisely what the doctor ordered for the Colts anemic run defense. Another wide-bodied rookie, Terrance Taylor, will also make up part of the tackle rotation. Not as active as Moala, Taylor is more of an immovable object-type interior presence. Veteran Ed Johnson comes back after missing last season due to a failed drug test, and the Colts welcome him with open arms. He has some ability to get to the quarterback up the gut, and he also twists outside quite well. Keyunta Dawson will still figure in the mix, though he represents the undersized old guard, same with Eric Foster. Unheralded Dan Muir could get some reps as well, as he impressed the coaches with his offseason progress and work ethic. This group sacrifices quickness and penetration for more functional bulk, which fits well with the more aggressive scheme favored by Coyer.
LB: No real major changes here, for better or worse. This is a very nondescript group with almost zero playmaking ability. Gary Brackett is solid in the middle as a tackler with sound instincts, and he's very reliable in his coverage assignments. His Jerome Bettis-physique belies his quickness, but a playmaker he's not; Brackett has just 1.5 sacks, seven interceptions and four forced fumbles in the last four seasons, with three of those interceptions coming in a two-week period in 2007. Undersized Freddy Keiaho is the nominal starter on the weak side, though he could lose out to younger, bigger Philip Wheeler. Keiaho garnered instant recognition by splashing onto the scene with a surprisingly strong debut in emergency duty, but the truth is that he too makes far too few plays -- one interception, zero forced fumbles, zero sacks, and just three tackles for loss in three seasons. Wheeler isn't as speedy but packs real oomph in his hits, plus he's 20 pounds heavier.
The picture is a little better on the strong side, where the Colts have two capable backers in Clint Session and Tyjuan Hagler. Session showed a good nose for the ball and packs power in his hits. He is the best of the linebackers at getting off blocks. Session will overrun plays and, as is the case with many undersized hitters, forgets to finish his tackles. Hagler knows the system and can play either outside spot. He figures to play more in passing situations, as he is the best natural cover linebacker. Former Panther Adam Seward brings much more size to the backup middle linebacker spot, but any Panthers fan can tell you his size matters little when you're that slow to react to the play.
Expect more blitzing and, more likely, much more run blitzing under Coyer. The Colts' linebackers did not register even half a sack last season and went an incredible 11 games without making a single tackle in the backfield. Sure, Peyton & Co. are awesome, but it might be nice to win more 17-13 games instead of the usual 31-24. With the bigger beef up front, the linebackers must step up and make more impact or else this defense will continue to struggle against the run and short passes.
DB: This is the strength of the defense. Corners Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden are very quietly one of the best 1-2 tandems in the league. Both have good size and range in the Cover-2 zone, and both possess excellent ball skills and timing. Hayden has also flashed the ability to play solid man-on coverage, which Jackson has done reliably when given the chance as well. Jackson is the bigger hitter, but Hayden is the better tackler. The only concern here is Jackson's health, as he is coming off knee surgery that cut his 2008 short.
Behind the starters the picture is much less sunny. Tim Jennings brings game effort and plays the ball well, but he's undersized and plays smaller than his size. He was often overpowered when filling in for Jackson, though in his nickel role he fared better. Tackling is not his strong suit. Dante Hughes has been a disappointment and has probably been usurped by Michael Coe, who missed last season. The Colts drafted Jerraud Powers in the third round and he will be given every chance to earn a spot in the rotation. Like Jennings, Powers is short but has good ball skills, and the Auburn product showed a more physical style in college. That would be a welcome addition.
Bob Sanders is a game-changer at safety, but durability is a major question mark. He has played in more than six games just twice in his five-year career, and his hyper-physical style lends itself to constant injury threat. There might not be a better in-the-box safety than Sanders. Bobzilla has also improved his coverage awareness, though at just 5'8" he does surrender a lot of completions on high throws. Sanders has alternated injury-ravaged and dominant healthy seasons, and this year he's due for the latter. Antoine Bethea has emerged as a very reliable free safety. Bethea excels at quickly reading the field and flowing to help in coverage where needed, though he does not make many plays on the ball. He is generally a sound tackler (though the exceptions are memorable for Colts fans) and rarely gets caught out of position. Melvin Bullitt has played a lot for Sanders and the dropoff isn't as extreme as you'd expect. He wound up rating among the top run-stuffing safeties in the league, and he closes quickly on the ball in coverage. He's not a big thumper like Sanders and his footwork in coverage can be hard to watch, but he's worthy of starting for most teams and gives the Colts great insurance for Sanders. Matt Giordano is on the team for his special teams ability and not anything he does at safety.
Special Teams: Major changes abound here, for good reason. The Colts coverage and return units have consistently rated near the bottom for years. They are hoping a new coordinator and punter will help, but I remain highly skeptical. New punter Pat McAfee is noted for his hang time, though Hunter Smith's kicks were largely not the issue. The cover units are small and not as fast as you'd expect for a Tampa-2 team. Kicker Adam Vinatieri continues to be solid -- but not outstanding -- on field goals, and his kickoffs are middle of the road as well. Bill Polian springs for one big-ticket free agent and gets an average kicker, go figure...
3 Keys To The Season:
1. How the Colts adjust to the coaching changes. Tony Dungy was a towering figure, leaving Jim Caldwell with huge shoes to fill. With the coordinators both new as well, an organization that has thrived on stability must prove it can handle upheaval.
2. Can the offense develop a running game to take some of the pressure off Manning? Both the running backs and the offensive line must improve or else Manning will be throwing the ball 30+ times every week.
3. How quickly the beef up front on defense handles the transformation to Larry Coyer's defense. Bob Sanders health fits here as well.
Forecast: The coaching staff has turned over and Marvin Harrison is gone. For most teams that would spell a season of retooling and adjustment. Not these Colts. So long as Peyton Manning is the quarterback, this offense will remain capable of outscoring the opponent no matter how many points the defense gives up. The increased mass on the defensive front will help, and if the starting secondary stays healthy this year, the defense will be much improved. The schedule sets up nicely -- just one outdoor cold-weather game, at Buffalo in a finale that has traditionally been a rest week for the starters anyways. Hopefully Jim Caldwell learned from Dungy's error and won't allow the starters to gather rust before the playoffs, because this team is all about success in January. Indianapolis swims to yet another 12-4 finish, another AFC South title, and has the potential to win any and all of its playoff games.
-- Jeff Risdon is RealGM's senior football writer. He may be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com. |
