| Jeff Risdon. 6th August, 2009 - 2:29 pm
 2008 record: 4-11-1, 3rd in NFC North
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: -2, Sack Differential: -34, Point Differential: -160
Coming In: WR Laveraneus Coles, DT Tank Johnson, S Roy Williams, QB J.T. O’Sullivan, RB Brian Leonard, CB Jamar Fletcher
Going Out: WR TJ Houshmandzadeh, S Dexter Jackson, T Stacy Andrews, RB Chris Perry, C Eric Ghiacuic, DT Orien Harris
Key Rookies: LB Rey Maualuga, T Andre Smith, DE Michael Johnson, TE Chase Coffman, P Kevin Huber, RB Bernard Scott
Offense
QB: It’s not as celebrated as Tom Brady in New England, but the Bengals feel very strongly that getting Carson Palmer back is just as important. Palmer is blessed with an amazing arm, replete with great accuracy and a very catchable natural tilt to his throws. His ability to put the ball exactly where it needs to be at precisely when it needs to get there will reinvigorate an offense that badly sputtered in his absence. It also brings a stable leader into the huddle, which is not insignificant. Having the ability to throw the ball all over the field with poise and precision transforms last year’s moribund offense into a highly competitive one. Expect a much better pace and invigorated receiving corps.
The club unceremoniously dumped Ryan Fitzpatrick after he filled in during Palmer’s absence. His QB rating of 70.0 ranked next to last amongst all QBs who threw at least 100 passes. In his place comes 49ers castoff JT O’Sullivan, the next man up that inglorious ranking list. He has a livelier arm but an alarming lack of ball control. Palmer’s younger brother Jordan is the clipboard holder, which is more of a bone to Carson than any indication of Jordan’s skills.
RB: Cedric Benson hopes to keep the career revival rolling. Banished with no love lost from Chicago, Benson appeared to get the message after arriving in Cincy. Running with the power and confidence that made him the 4th overall pick in the 2005 draft, Benson is a snowplow between the tackles. Though he lacks an extra gear and doesn’t always pick the right hole, Benson pounds defenses and always falls forward. His pass protection was noticeably improved as well. The Bengals rewarded Benson with a nice new deal, but it remains to be seen how well he handles success the second time around.
Behind Benson, the pickings are pretty slim. 6th round pick Bernard Scott lined up with the second team as camp opened, ahead of oft-injured Kenny Watson and DeDe Dorsey. Scott is exactly the type of player that has (unfortunately) epitomized the Bengals of the Marvin Lewis era--very physically gifted but with serious off-field baggage. His speed and receiving skills could make him a very effective 3rd down back. The Bengals brought in Brian Leonard, a 2007 2nd round pick by the Rams who washed out quickly. Touted as a hybrid RB/FB, Leonard proved too slow for the former and too soft for the latter. The coaches are hopeful their scheme and OL will help him salvage his career, though expectations are low. At fullback, the Bengals drafted Fui Vakapuna to compete with Jeremi Johnson. It’s not an important position in their offense, obviously.
WR/TE: One of the two icons of the once-dynamic WR duo is gone, and unfortunately for Carson Palmer it’s TJ Houshmandzadeh who departed. He will be missed. Chad Ochocinco comes off a season where his trade value plummeted from two first round picks (the Redskins offered that before the 2008 draft) to a 5th rounder (two teams offered that on draft day 2009). What used to come off as fresh and engaging now seems egocentric and immature. Ochocinco’s effort and attitude both waned in 2008. No doubt some of that comes from the loss of Palmer, with whom Chad had a great on-field chemistry. He’s at his best flying down the outside or running deep drags, throws that Ryan Fitzpatrick simply could not make, and rather than adjust his style, Ochocinco wallowed in self-pity while Houshmandzadeh almost doubled his output. One of two things is going to happen with #85 in 2009: he’s either going to have a monster bounceback season or find himself exiled a la Keyshawn Johnson, unable to find anyone who wants to throw him the damn ball. Knowing his drive and trusting Palmer, I’m leaning towards the former, but it’s a huge unknown.
Replacing Housh is former Jet Laveraneus Coles, who has made a nice career of straddling the line between possession receiver and big-play threat. His professionalism and great route running will ease the loss, though he’s not as good in traffic and a half-step slower. The Bengals do have themselves a great deep threat and potential big-play man in Chris Henry, but only Pacman Jones attracts more police blotter attention. If Henry’s head is finally on straight, and several Bengals players and staffers tell me he’s finally growing up, his size and speed make him a great downfield receiver that stretches the defense and takes safety help away from Ochocinco. Antonio Chatman is a serviceable possession receiver, though he could lose that role to second-year Andre Caldwell. The former Gator showed good hands and strength as a rookie and has taken a shine to the mentoring by Coles. Fellow 2008 draftee Jerome Simpson has disappointed enough that he might not make the team.
Tight end has been extremely under-utilized in the passing game. No team has thrown a fewer percentage of passes to the TE over the last 10 years. That could change this year with the addition of big rookie Chase Coffman, who played primarily as a slot receiver in Missouri’s spread offense. He has been a big hit in offseason work and his size and hands will be valuable weapons in the red zone. Ben Utecht was a free agent flop last year, though he’s another player that should benefit from better QB play. Neither is much of a blocker, which makes the training camp loss of Reggie Kelly to a torn Achilles a major downer. Kelly did a solid job and was much respected in the huddle and locker room. They should be in the market for a beefy blocking TE, though once again this is a low-priority position on the team.
OL: Unquestionably, the weakest part of the team in 2008, the Bengals have aggressively addressed the problem. In drafting Andre Smith with the 6th overall pick, the Bengals landed a mauling run blocker with great athleticism for his weight. Dogged by maturity and fitness issues, Smith slid down on many draft boards, but even his harshest critics agree he was dominant at Alabama. He’ll start at right tackle, while Andrew Whitworth slides outside to play left tackle, where he was pretty effective last year after being a guard for the prior seasons. Both tackles are agile giants with great power and aren’t afraid to throw their weight around. Whitworth is emerging as a team leader and was highly visible in teaching technique at the Senior Bowl, something that can only help young Smith.
The biggest problem was up the gut, but the coaching staff has confidence that a couple of new starters will remedy that ill. Kyle Cook will take over for Eric Ghiacuic at center, and even if Cook turns out to be the worst center in the league, he’s still an upgrade. OL Coach Paul Alexander called Cook “the most improved player in one offseason I’ve had here”, and he’s been there awhile. His size will certainly help. 3rd year man Nate Livings leads the battle for the LG spot after an impressive offseason. His size and run blocking acumen are his greatest strengths, though he will struggle in pass protection with his plodding feet. Bobbie Williams returns at RG, where he holds his own but fails to stand out.
The depth should be better, with 3rd round pick Jonathan Luigs able to play center or either guard spot. He needs to improve his strength at the point of attack before he cracks the starting lineup. Scott Kooistra can play guard or right tackle and is a plus run blocker. Anthony Collins fared reasonably well as a rookie and will back up both tackle spots. He could feasibly start at LT and slide Whitworth back inside if Collins continues to progress or Whitworth struggles too much with the speed on the edge.
*As of this writing (Aug. 6th) Smith remains unsigned, which hinders his chances to be great right away. Anthony Collins has been the 1st team RT and has looked quite good, according to some Bengals.
Defense
DL: This group is a lot better than advertised, though they lack any real standouts. The DT rotation of Domata Peko, Pat Sims, and newcomer Tank Johnson should prove very stout against the run. All are large-framed guys with quickness and great base strength. Peko has very quietly become one of the better interior presences in the league, now more notable for his game than his crazy hair. Johnson returns to his role as a 3-technique 4-3 DT, where he excelled as a Bear. Beefy Paul Shirley showed some flashes as a rookie in reserve. None of the tackles provide much QB pressure, however, netting just 4.5 sacks and 13 QB pressures, both dead last amongst 4-3 defensive front teams.
The ends have not provided the requisite pass rush, though they are quite good against the run and snuffing out screens and draws. Antwan Odom and Robert Geathers both play more like oversized linebackers. Both battled through nagging injuries that limited their effectiveness in 2008. Geathers in particular has shown some creative effectiveness in rushing the passer in the past, so expect at least some bounceback from the starting ends. Odom showed good aptitude at dropping into coverage on zone blitz plays, which the Bengals do frequently. The Bengals were thrilled when Michael Johnson fell to them in the 3rd round of the draft. Slammed by most pundits (myself included) as being nothing but a situational pass rusher and completely useless against the run, Johnson fits well in Cincy in Mike Zimmer’s defense. They don’t need him to do anything but bring heat off the edge on 3rd down or obvious passing downs. He complements fellow reserve Jonathan Fanene, who plays the run quite well but probably didn’t venture into the opposing backfield all season. Frostee Rucker is playing for his NFL life, which will either motivate him to improve or send him packing by September.
LB: There is potential here for this unit to be a very good one, but it must blend together well. Keith Rivers was having a superb rookie season before Hines Ward broke his jaw with a hit that is now illegal. He has the physical skills and instincts to play any of the LB spots and is the best playmaker on the defense. Rivers will start on the weak side, where he is free to roam more and perhaps blitz more often. Unheralded Rashad Jeanty starts on the strong side. He doesn’t make a lot of plays but is a facilitator for the guys around him. He holds the edge well against the run, drops into coverage well, and cleans up tackles nicely.
The middle LB spot is up for grabs, the prize of a training camp battle between Dhani Jones and Rey Maualuga. You cannot find two more diametrically opposite people who play the same position than these two. Veteran Jones is a bowtie-wearing, intellectual, humble gentleman who gets by on guile, film study, and great fundamentals. Rookie Maualuga might not own a shirt with sleeves, has hair and tattoos everywhere, punctuates his speech with lots of interjections and onomatopoeic words, and fell in the draft because he often plays wildly out of control, both on and off the field. But Rey brings the pain and intensity, and if the coaching staff can harness his energy, they have their answer to Ray Lewis and James Harrison in the AFC North. Jones is quite adept in coverage, so a run/pass platoon could well develop. Brandon Johnson played over his head in Rivers’ absence last year but should make an excellent, versatile backup. Daryl Blackstock and Abdul Hodge are decent depth filler with some young promise.
DB: The Bengals are loaded with viable options at safety. Mike Zimmer has two of his old favorites in Chris Crocker and Roy Williams, both of whom played their best football under his tutelage. Crocker impressed after coming over mid-season and solidified the pass defense, keeping the plays in front of him and quickly earning the trust of the corners. Williams is perhaps the worst safety in coverage in the league, but under Zimmer he played a vicious style of hybrid LB/safety. With his size and headhunting reputation, the former Cowboy brings attitude and experience to the run defense. Not many players get a penalty named after them, and the Roy Williams Horsecollar tackle is still an intimidating prospect for opposing ballcarriers. He will likely cede passing down snaps to Chinedum Ndukwe, who has shown decent range and a good nose for the ball. Two different close observers told me this offseason that Ndukwe is poised to break out in his third season. Crocker’s arrival was forced by an injury to Marvin White, but young White is a big-time hitter with lots of experience. Much like Williams, coverage awareness is a foreign concept to him, but he showed a nice ability to close quickly. He is a very sure tackler. Corey Lynch has shined in offseason workouts and early in camp, yet he will likely only see the field via injury.
Both the starting CBs are former 1st round draft picks, but both have been largely inconsistent. Leon Hall is the better of the two, with his playmaking and more physical style. He should thrive under Zimmer’s more aggressive scheme. While he lacks top-end speed, Hall gets out of breaks quickly and has very natural instincts in coverage. Jonathan Joseph is faster and a more reliable tackler, though he is perennially on the injury report with chronic foot problems. Unfortunately the duo rarely plays well at the same time, and they’ve struggled against offenses that spread the ball to more than one primary receiver. Some of that can be attributed to the pathetic pass rush, but more consistent, cohesive play from the young talents would definitely help. The nickel back is David Jones, last seen looking for Dallas Clark in the 35-3 shellacking by the Colts in Week 14. He did have better games but is one or two notches too high on the 2-deep, plus he’s out for most of the preseason (or longer) with a broken left foot. The team has high hopes for rookie Morgan Trent, who fell into their laps as an injury replacement during Senior Bowl week (the Bengals coached the North team) and made quite an impression. Like fellow Wolverine Leon Hall, Trent plays bigger than his size and has sound instincts, but lacks speed and doesn’t wrap his tackles well. Journeyman Jamar Fletcher was signed for depth, and I’ve never been able to put my finger on why he hasn’t had a better career. Maybe this will be his ticket.
One thing this secondary does very well is blitz. The Bengals DBs notched more sacks than any other secondary last season. It helps that both DEs and LB Dhani Jones drop well in zone blitz coverage, but this group is clearly well-coached on timing the blitz and not tipping their hand too early.
Special Teams: Kicker Shayne Graham earned the franchise tag for his reliability and range on field goals. He’s proven very clutch in the few times Cincy has needed a late-game kick. No team punted more than the Bengals last year, but the leg that did all that work is gone. Mercifully gone, as Kyle Larson was consistently terrible. Local boy done right Kevin Huber will be the new punter, noted for his hang time and booming distances. The coverage units are middle-of-the-road, but the team desperately needs to find a dynamic return man. Bernard Scott might be that guy, time will tell.
3 Keys to the season:
1. A healthy return by Carson Palmer firing up the moribund offense back to 2005-07 levels.
2. Sustaining the momentum from the defensive improvement as 2008 progressed. A better pass rush would be helpful.
3. Starting the season strong. There is a tangible vibe of positivity and confidence around this group, and if they can pick up a couple of early wins they can really get rolling. The schedule sets up relatively well for this, but if they flop in winnable early games (DEN, @CLE, @BAL, HOU) they could collapse. Again.
Forecast: This one is cloudy. The return of Carson Palmer and upgrades to the OL should fix the offense, but there are still legit questions. The defense is loaded with young talent, but it must continue to develop and make plays. There are skilled playmakers dotting the roster, but they must stay out of trouble and mesh together into a family-style team. The dilemma here is how to interpret the late-season surge that carried the Bengals from 0-8 to 4-11-1 (that’s a 4-3-1 finish for the mathematically challenged). We’ve seen strong finishes from similarly talented Bengals teams in the past, only to watch the cycle of futility and soul-crushing for the faithful fans repeat like a bad Daughtry CD.
Will this be the team that breaks the cycle? They just might be. They are certainly better; the question is to what extent. If they can hold serve inside the AFC North, they have a realistic shot at garnering a Wild Card berth with 9 or 10 wins. That seems a bit sunny to me, knowing all the potential pitfalls and the tightwad ownership that won’t fill holes as they open. The forecast is for the Bengals to finish 7-9, but don’t be surprised if they pull off 10 wins and a trip to the playoffs. Another 4-win finish shouldn’t surprise anyone either. |
