| Jeff Risdon. 30th July, 2009 - 2:31 pm
 2008 record: 11-5, T-2 in AFC East
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: +1, Sack Differential: -17
Coming In: WR Joey Galloway, CB Leigh Bodden, TE Chris Baker, RB Fred Taylor, C Al Johnson, LB Tully Banta-Cain, CB Shawn Springs, TE Alex Smith, WR Greg Lewis
Going Out: QB Matt Cassel, LB Mike Vrabel, S Rodney Harrison, CB/RS Ellis Hobbs, RB Lamont Jordan, WR Jabar Gaffney
Key Rookies: NT Ron Brace, CB Darius Butler, S Patrick Chung, LS Jake Ingram
Offense
QB: Tom Brady returns from his knee injury in what is sure to become the most-watched comeback in NFL history. All signs indicate he’ll be back to his old self for Week 1, and that means greatness. I could cite a laundry list of positive attributes, but suffice to say Brady is no worse than the 2nd best QB in the game and one of the all-time greats, and he’s still in his prime. If the knee is fine, there is no reason Brady won’t once again be at or near the top in every statistical metric. And with his drive and competitiveness, it wouldn’t surprise me if Brady tops his record-setting 2007 MVP campaign.
The Pats traded backup Matt Cassel after hitting him with the franchise tag as a reward for his admirable fill-in service. My suspicion is that he was more a product of the talent around him than anything real special, but he did prove able to go out and get the job done. The backup QB now is Kevin O’Connell, a surprise 3rd round pick in 2008 who had just six attempts as a rookie. Cassel’s greatest asset was his familiarity with the system, something neither O’Connell nor #3 Matt Gutierrez has yet. Tom Brady had better be back to his old self, because the dropoff appears severe.
RB: Bill Belichick loves to use the “RB by committee” approach that is perennially in a constant state of situational flux. Longtime Jaguar Fred Taylor is the latest addition to the committee, and he’s the closest thing to a legit feature back the Pats have had since Corey Dillon. At 32 and with a lot of miles on the tires, Taylor should benefit from a shared workload as he did the past couple of seasons in Jacksonville. His vision and his ability to break the first tackle are still top notch, and he has quietly shed the “fragile” tag form early in his career. Also in the committee are Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, and Sammy Morris. Maroney has been unable to stay healthy or run with the power that made him a 1st round pick. This could be his final year in New England, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he gets bumped this summer by a hungry young upstart. Faulk is the consummate 3rd down back, a great receiver out of the backfield and very good in blitz pickup. Defenses must account for him coming out of the backfield, which really helps the offensive line and gives more room to the wideouts downfield. Morris led the team in rushing last year, but that’s more an indictment of the backfield than it is indicative of his skills. He runs hard and reliably finds the hole, but lacks burst or breakaway speed to do much once he gets through it. BenJarvus Green-Ellis showed a spark in limited duty as a rookie and is worth watching, though once defenses figured out his one trick he slowed down considerably. Note to Mr. Green-Ellis: you are allowed to turn to your right. He has the makings of a decent short-yardage back.
WR/TE: Randy Moss gets most of the publicity, but this is a very deep, very talented group. The enigmatic Moss remains one of the very best players regardless of position in the entire league. His tremendous speed with his size, his great hands, and his precision routes are exactly what coaches dream about. Age might cost him a half-step and an inch or two of his vertical, but he is still a preeminent weapon and has become a model citizen and teammate in the winning structure of Team Hoodie. Playing off him perfectly is Wes Welker, one of the best slot receivers in the business. Freakishly quick and blessed with great hands and body coordination, Welker has caught more balls than any receiver over the last two seasons. He catches anything near him and transitions quite well from receiver to runner, though he rarely scores touchdowns. Both he and Moss are effective downfield blockers, particularly when Kevin Faulk has the ball.
After the dynamic duo, things get interesting. The guy who used to line up outside Welker, Jabar Gaffney, is gone. He will be replaced in the starting lineup by either Joey Galloway or Greg Lewis, or perhaps rookie Brandon Tate. Galloway is 37 and his beard is legitimately gray, but he still has great wheels and an uncanny knack for setting them up with savvy changes of speed. He should thrive in the role of third banana, with Welker taking away safety help. Lewis, also a newcomer, never developed into the weapon the Eagles wanted him to be, but he is a competent all-around receiver. Tate is a big-time talent coming off a big-time knee injury (and a failed drug test) that hurt his draft stock. If the knee checks out, he’s more naturally gifted than Lewis and much more physical, but he could be a PUP candidate and his impact is likely more long-term. The Pats will use 5 wides more than most teams, and #5 figures to be Sam Aiken (unless it’s Tate). Aiken is a blocking TE in a wideout’s body and a very good special teams player, but he’s caught just 13 passes in the last 3 years. Still, it’s hard to be critical when the top 4 are as talented as what New England has with this group.
The TE picture is crowded, very much so for a team that uses three WRs as a base offense. Ben Watson is the nominal starter, though he really battles to catch even the easiest throws. He could greatly benefit from Brady’s return, as Cassel clearly never trusted him. David Thomas caught just 9 passes and never looked fully recovered from the injuries that ended his 2007 after just 5 quarters. The team loves his grit and effort, but he does not get separation on his own and isn’t big or strong enough to fill the traditional “blocking TE” role. I love the acquisition of Chris Baker from the Jets, who never really knew what they had in him. Some of that was self-inflicted; he’s a needy receiver who thinks he’s an All Pro. But Baker is a legit talent and a great intermediate-range target. Team Hoodie is legendary for getting guys who were malcontents or misfits elsewhere to blossom, and Baker could be the next example. They traded for Alex Smith, who started in Tampa Bay and wasn’t bad, but he will be hard-pressed to ever see the field if he even makes the final roster. If they hope to keep some of their developmental young talent on the OL and secondary, at least one of these guys will be elsewhere.
OL: Even Achilles had a weak point, and this is the Patriots’ biggest vulnerability. The left side of the line is exceptional at run blocking but gives up too many sacks. The right side of the line fares better against the pass rush but almost always winds up in the backfield on run plays. The best player on the line is LG Logan Mankins, a mauling scrapper who is one of the best, most aggressive run blockers in the game. Few guards can match his ability to peel off his initial block and make a secondary block at the next level. Both he and LT Matt Light struggle with speed in pass protection, however. Light knows all the little tricks and plays like a future OL coach in the making. He and Mankins must improve their read cohesion; several times they left a rusher unaccounted for, and blown blocks can equal QBs on IR. It’s quite odd considering all the time they have spent playing next to each other, and having a QB like Brady that can make quick decisions will help ease the pressure to be perfect.
Center Dan Koppen is reliable in the middle. While he’ll never make an All-Pro team, Koppen has no real holes to his game and almost always gets the job done right. He does a fine job in blitz recognition. Right guard Steven Neal is back to full strength after missing half of last season with a bum shoulder. That clearly impacted his run blocking, though he markedly improved his footwork in pass protection as compensation, which bodes well for the future. Right tackle is an ongoing sore spot, as Nick Kaczur has struggled more than expected. While he gives full effort and has a nice hand punch and arm extension, Kaczur too often lets the defense dictate his action. His job is probably safe, as the two most suitable challengers are underwhelming Ryan O’Callaghan and Russ Hochstein, who is far more valuable as the top reserve with his ability to play every line spot but LT.
There is a whole host of training camp battles for reserve spots all over the line. Hochstein is safe as the 6th man, and he’s a very good utility lineman. Al Johnson has started at center earlier in his career and should earn the backup C spot, though his lack of special teams play hurts his chances. The Patriots are unlikely to keep more than 9 linemen, which means a free-for-all between Billy Yates, Mark LeVoir, Dan Connolly, Wesley Britt, and rookies Rich Ohrnberger and Sebastian Vollmer for the final 2 (maybe 3) spots. Yates has the upper hand for one spot, though he was a liability when filling in for Neal last year. The team has high hopes for LeVoir and he can play LT, which means both rookies are likely slated for practice squad duty. Vollmer could use it, as he is a very raw but physically gifted prospect.
Defense
DL: ...and the rich keep getting richer. Already blessed with three Pro Bowl-caliber starters, the Patriots now have a full complement of quality backups across the front. Vince Wilfork is a playmaking nose tackle who commands a double team on every snap. He is entering a contract year, which has equated to dominating seasons from Shaun Rogers and Albert Haynesworth as wide-bodied DTs, and Wilfork has as much skill as either. Wilfork also has other motivation, as the Patriots drafted his likely replacement in Ron Brace. Young Brace is the epitome of the immovable object, but he is more than just a fat guy clogging the middle. He’s not as quick as Wilfork but might be a better run anchor in the long run. Belichick has to be intrigued by the prospect of playing the two together and creating an interior wall similar to what Minnesota has on running downs.
The ends are both exceptional. Richard Seymour is also playing for his next contract on the right side, where he is the primary line pass rusher. He slumped after Week 10 last year (just 2 half sacks after) but remains a preeminent threat to collapse the pocket. Both he and LDE Ty Warren are former first round picks (as is Wilfork), and the Patriots clearly spent their picks wisely. Warren battled some injuries in 2008 but remains very good at his role of backside containment and run stuffer. He does all the little things that never show up on the stat sheet, but his teammates and the coaches know his value. Warren did have two groin surgeries this offseason, so his health is questionable. Jarvis Green is a pass rush package sub, and a pretty good one. He would start for almost any other team. Mike Wright can play any spot along the line and provides lunchpail effort and snarl. With game LeKevin Smith still around, the Patriots are blessed with a plethora of DL depth behind the premium top shelf starters.
LB: There is a changing of the guard underway at LB. Gone are stalwarts Mike Vrabel and Junior Seau, and in their place are open questions. Vrabel slumped badly as a rush linebacker and was dispatched to Kansas City, but his replacement still has big shoes to fill. It’s likely to be 2nd year man Shawn Crable, who gets the athleticism and quickness edge over former Michigan teammate Pierre Woods. Neither player has much experience, and Crable missed his rookie season with an injury. Crable was a consistent force in college and was more than a one-trick pony, so he should grow into the role, but there will likely be a dropoff. Ready to pick up that slack is Adalius Thomas, who is primed for a big comeback season after injuries decimated his 2008. Thomas has the versatility to play all over the formation, including putting his hand down and playing rush end when the Pats go to a 4-man front. He hasn’t been the dynamic force they hoped for, but Thomas remains a very good starter when healthy. Tully Banta-Cain returns hat in hand after being a huge free agent bust in San Francisco. He will resume his role of nickel package backside rusher, where he earned the lucrative deal in the first place. Expect a nice bounceback year, and TBC could be on the field quite a bit as there is nothing behind him. Rookie Tyrone McKenzie is already on IR with a career-threatening knee injury. This is a group with very good size and strong football IQs more than great athletes.
Inside is in more proven shape with reigning Rookie of the Year Jerod Mayo and steady vet Tedy Bruschi. Mayo rebounded with authority from perhaps the worst LB game I’ve ever seen in Week 3 (a.k.a. the Miami Wildcat game), quickly learning from his mistakes and asserting his physical dominance all over the field. Expect the coaches to experiment with his athleticism more in his second year, which Mayo could parlay into Defensive MVP honors. He is that talented. Bruschi is basically running on fumes, but he still has his speed and veteran savvy. He no longer hits with much force and can’t get off blocks well anymore, but his guile and range keep him viable. Top reserve Gary Guyton will get more action in relief of Bruschi, and he plays with a similar speed-based style. Guyton proved quite adept at covering tight ends and dropping into cloud zone coverage. As the depth chart falls off dramatically after Guyton, don’t be surprised to see Junior Seau come October.
DB: The starting corners are both newcomers, for better or worse. Actually, it can’t get much worse than last year, and that’s why the starting corners are both newcomers. Veteran Shawn Springs takes over as the de facto #1 corner, though the team eschews designations. He played reasonably well for a 33-year old in Washington last year, keeping receivers in front of him and still flashing the ability to close hard on the ball. He’s not the ballhawk of years past, but his run support has improved. Bodden bombed in Detroit, completely lost in zone coverage and taking the term “soft” to new depths. The Patriots are hoping he can dial up the Cleveland-era Bodden, who was a rising star and a very reliable cover corner. I wouldn’t hold my breath, not with New England’s zone shell, but his addition at least buys time and improves depth.
Second year players Jonathan Wilhite and Terrence Wheatley will see the field a lot behind, and with, the starters. Wilhite actually played better when inserted into the starting lineup late in 2008, and he could fit quite well as the nickel slot corner. His on-field awareness impressed. Wheatley is a great athlete but went down with a broken wrist after more downs than ups. This is an important season for him, as he’s not likely to get a better opportunity to prove himself. 2nd round pick Darius Butler also factors into the mix, and his considerable upside could quickly net him a starting gig. Butler must get physically stronger, but his cover skills are as polished as any corner in the past couple of drafts. Though there is still no replacement for Asante Samuel, the overall depth is as good as it’s been under Belichick and has some real youthful promise.
Safety will also look different with the retirement of Rodney Harrison. Brandon Meriweather will start as the strong safety, and he could finally be ready to thrive in his third season. A much better cover man than run defender, Meriweather looked much more comfortable late in 2008. He is not much of a hitter or a physical presence, however. On the flip side is James Sanders, who hits like a sledgehammer but is often late to the party. Sanders blew several deep help assignments last season, though he also separated a few balls from receivers. Rookie 2nd rounder Patrick Chung figures to play a lot as well. Despite early indications that he’s making a name for himself, I remain skeptical of Chung; I’m aware of at least 3 other teams that had him with 5th round grades or lower, and I worry about his instincts and reaction speed. Any needs beyond the top 3 and the Pats are likely to find a veteran free agent than anything currently on the roster. That’s the luxury of having 4 capable TEs and a plethora of future draft picks.
Special Teams: The specialists are solid, with K Stephen Gostkowski earning a Pro Bowl berth last season with 148 points. He’s very good from beyond 25 yards but strangely missed 2 FGs from inside that range. Chris Hanson is serviceable as a punter, but the Patriots brought in big-legged Tom Malone as more than a camp leg; there will be a legit competition. There is also competition at long snapper, though it’s hard to see them not keeping rookie Jake Ingram after burning a draft pick on him. The cover units are solid but need some retooling. There is an open competition for return duties, as Matt Slater bombed as a rookie and Ellis Hobbs was sent packing.
Coaching: Not every team gets a section devoted to coaching, but Bill Belichick deserves special mention. For all the criticism levied upon him, Belichick is the best head coach since Bill Walsh. Even in his uneven Cleveland era, his immense knowledge, passion, and innovation were clearly evident. He has created a system and a culture, knowing precisely what he needs and wants and how to get the players to deliver. The Patriots have lost many assistants in the last few years, but the juggernaut keeps rolling. That is a credit to Coach Belichick. Expect him to find extra motivation and seeking vengeance for missing the playoffs last year and retribution for the horribly overblown Spygate scandal.
3 Keys to the season:
1. Tom Brady’s knee. Can he get back to the comfort level of 2007, when the world was his oyster? Or will he show trepidation and loss of performance from the injury and time off, as so many others have done before him?
2. Will the offensive line be able to live up to the expectations that accompany such a talented group of skill position players?
3. Can the numerous greybeards in so many key positions all handle the rigors and stay fresh for a playoff run? There are so many aged veterans for a reason--the depth at several key spots is very thin in terms of proven talent.
Forecast: This is no worse than the 3rd best team in the NFL on paper, and if you want to argue they are #1 you’ll get little quarrel from anyone with any sense. Before I even looked at the schedule, I had mentally penciled in 12 wins for the Patriots, what with the return of Brady and the revamped defense. Then I saw the schedule, and 12 seems conservative. So long as Brady checks out fine, the Patriots will start no worse than 6-1 before their bye week. The second part of the schedule gets tougher, but there are at least 6 wins there too, probably 7 or 8. They’re not going to win every game, but they’ll win enough to blow away the AFC East and garner a playoff bye. New England finishes 13-3 and should be considered favorites to win the Super Bowl.
- Jeff Risdon is RealGM's senior football writer. He may be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
