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| Jeff Risdon. 24th July, 2009 - 10:02 am
 2008 record: 12-4, 1st in NFC South
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: +6, Sack Differential: +17, Point Differential: +85
Coming In: Nobody they want to actually have to play.
Going Out: CB Ken Lucas, T/G Frank Omiyale, RB Nick Goings, WR DJ Hackett, G/C Geoff Hangartner, T/G Jeremy Bridges
Key Rookies: DE Everette Brown, RB Mike Goodson, DT Corey Irvin
Offense:
QB: Jake Delhomme is the man once again. Unfortunately for Delhomme, everyone thinks back to last season and can only remember his horrific playoff game, where he was picked off six times. He actually had a decent comeback year, looking very much like the plucky gunslinger of old and showing no ill effects from Tommy John surgery. Delhomme doesn't have the highest caliber rifle for an arm, but his accuracy is very good, particularly on mid-range throws and crossing routes that make up a large chunk of the Panthers offense. He's also one of the better in the league at buying time in the pocket and keeping plays alive while looking downfield. His teammates genuinely had his back after his clunker game, which speaks to how much they appreciate his leadership. The offense doesn't depend on him to win games by himself very often, though he will throw up two or three brutal games every season.
Delhomme had better be up to the task, because the Panthers again neglected to upgrade the backup position or groom an eventual successor. Josh McCown will be the backup once more. McCown can be very good in short stretches when there's no pressure from either his teammates or the opposing defense, but he quickly goes into panic mode and is unreliable. Matt Moore inexplicably continues to be the apple of John Fox's eye as the third quarterback. He might even surpass McCown this summer. Weak-armed and slow to read defenses, Moore should be nothing more than an emergency option. Vinny Testaverde is still on speed dial despite collecting Medicaid, and I would wager he'd perform better than Moore or McCown.
RB: In the 2008 draft the Panthers took Jonathan Stewart with their first pick, and most people saw him as a replacement for DeAngelo Williams, another first round pick that just wasn't working out. A funny thing happened on the way to the scrap heap of el busto running backs, however; Stewart brought out the best in Williams, who proved to be no slouch himself. Now the Panthers have an enviable duo that can do it all. Williams is a smaller, speedier, shiftier back with great acceleration and freakish balance. Stewart is a thumper in the Jerome Bettis mold, though he's got better speed than most backs with his build. Together they give offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson a thunder/lightning package that stays fresh and gives defenses fits. I wouldn't expect 1,500 yards or 18 touchdowns from Williams again, but the duo should combine for close to the 2,300 yards they netted in 2008. And with this offensive line, scoring 20+ touchdowns is almost expected between the two.
The Panthers rarely throw the ball to their running backs, though Williams has shown he has some nice hands. That might change this year with the addition of rookie Mike Goodson, a blazing big man who specialized in flaring out and lining up in the slot during his Texas A&M days. He fills the role of third down back, though that hasn't really been an issue. At worst he's a younger, faster upgrade over Nick Goings as the third running back. Carolina ruffled some feathers of its local fans when they drafted Tony Fiametta to compete with local hero/fan favorite Brad Hoover at fullback. The Panthers do use the fullback frequently and Hoover has shown spurts of being a very good one in past years, though his 2008 was not great. This is a training camp battle worth watching. If Fiametta wins the starting gig, and he has the talent to do so, the offense loses a key veteran leader in Hoover. Calling my shot early: Mr. Fiametta will suffer a non-specific lower body injury that allows him to be an IR stash as a rookie, then takes over next year.
WR/TE: The primary weapon is Steve Smith, who remains one of the best pound-for-pound players in the league. After his training camp scuffle with Ken Lucas (thats not why Lucas is now gone), Smith finally learned the concept of being a good teammate, and he had a banner season. His lack of height is no problem, thanks to his incredible energy and strength. There is no better threat after the catch than Smith, and he and Delhomme have an innate connection that works beautifully. Still hotheaded and demanding, Smith will always have some teammates and coaches walking on eggshells, but nobody ever questions his will to win or his effort.
Muhsin Muhammad returns for another year as the second option, though he will be pushed by Dwayne Jarrett. The venerable, 36-year old Muhammad is the consummate possession receiver and can still reliably get open. He and Smith have proven an excellent symbiotic combo over the years, and both have Delhomme's full trust. Young Jarrett has disappointed to this point, but observers tell me he has matured and worked very hard at his craft this offseason. His size and strong hands are his best attributes, but thus far he has shown little ability to separate or fight for the ball in traffic. The Panthers are hoping his late-season emergence in 2008 carries over into bigger and better things. It needs to, because beyond him the pickings are slim. Lions castoff Kenneth Moore and under-performing Ryne Robinson are next up on the depth chart, with Marcus Monk bringing intriguing size to the competition. The Panthers almost never use more than three receivers in any set, so it's strictly a depth issue.
Tight end does not lack for depth, but it's far from a dynamic group. Jeff King is steady-handed and a very good blocker, but he's barely faster than most tackles. Dante Rosario apparently cannot count beyond one in snap cadences and is not a very good blocker for his size, but he can get open. One week every year he'll explode for a big game, then disappear for a month. Second year player Gary Barnridge has better athletic measurables than either, but he has scant experience. He was one of the stars of OTAs, so he could usurp Rosario as the primary No. 2 tight end.
OL: I criticized general manager Marty Hurney for the price he paid to get him, but rookie Jeff Otah more than lived up to expectations at right tackle. A massive mauler with better feet than he ever showed in college, young Otah is an ideal right sider -- strong, physical, nasty, always attacking. He pairs with franchise player Jordan Gross to form a very good tackle duo. Gross doesn't stand out in any one area, but he has no holes in his game; everything about him and how he plays is above average. He is smart enough to make quick adjustments when the defense mixes things up pre-snap. A big reason why DeAngelo Williams had such a successful year was the ability of the two tackles to seal the edge and give him wide running lanes.
Center Ryan Kalil is an emerging star, if you could ever consider an interior lineman a star. Undersized but strongly built, Kalil excels at quickly identifying the defense and making the proper calls. He's also a great teammate who can lighten the atmosphere if needed. Few centers get out to the second level as quickly and under control as well as Kalil, who is entering just his third season. Travelle Wharton moved inside from tackle and proved very adept at left guard. His inability to slide step is masked inside, and he thrived at handling bigger, slower tackles instead of smaller, quicker ends. Few guards pull and lead the charge as well as Wharton. Keydrick Vincent proved a capable right guard, better as a run blocker than in pass protection. Notice a theme there? This is a very physical group but has pretty good athleticism.
Overall the starters are a very good unit that should only get better as they cohere with more time together. But all the proven depth is gone, and none of the current backups are close to the caliber of the guys in those spots last year. Expect at least one undrafted free agent to stick, probably Gerald Cadogan, and another to make the practice squad.
Defense:
DL: Almost all the attention is focused on defensive end Julius Peppers, but this group is more than a one-man band. Peppers got franchise tagged and never came to a long-term deal, which means he's playing for a contract once again. He is perhaps the most athletically gifted defensive end in the league and he knows how to use his physical tools. He can beat blockers with speed, power, or quickness, and he knows how to set up his barrage of moves. Peppers is also a very solid run anchor. On the other side, defensive coordinator Ron Meeks deployed a platoon between Tyler Brayton and Charles Johnson, with Brayton playing on run downs and Johnson coming in for passing situations. Johnson proved adequate at playing off Peppers and getting quarterback pressures, though he only netted six sacks. Brayton played better when sliding inside as part of the nickel package, a role he should keep in 2009. The wild card is rookie Everette Brown, who consistently wowed coaches and observers in OTAs with his speed and quickness. He's strictly a pass rushing hybrid defensive end/outside linebacker at this point, but he brings loads of potential and great depth to the front. He also provides nice insurance in case Peppers mentally takes the year off, as he did in 2007. Hilee Taylor has some ability that the coaches like as well.
The tackles can be summed up in three words: massive, slow, adequate. Maake Kemoeatu strictly occupies blockers, but does a fine job at it. He hasn't made a play in the backfield in his last 30 games, however. Damione Lewis starts with him, and he's quicker and a little more apt to get penetration. Lewis excels at stopping cutback runs and draw plays. Though Brayton will slide inside at times, the only real depth up front is third rounder Corey Irvin, who has skill and beef but was wildly inconsistent at Georgia. Keep an eye on unrestricted free agent Marlon Favorite, who physically resembles the departed Kris Jenkins and knew how to throw his weight around at LSU.
LB: Middle man Jon Beason has emerged as a legit force and tackling machine. He earned his Pro Bowl berth by almost never missing a tackle or assignment. But like a lot of other undersized middle linebackers, most of Beason's tackles come downfield, and his at the mercy of the guys up front to keep blockers away. When the Panthers played Tampa-2 scheme (not a strict one), Beason fared well at dropping into coverage. The best linebacker in coverage is converted college safety Thomas Davis, who finally looks comfortable at weakside linebacker. Few backers can handle tight ends as well as Davis, and teams adjusted their attack to nothing more than dumpoffs and short safety passes in his realm. Like Beason, he's small for the position and needs help with potential blockers. Na'il Diggs continues to hang on to his starting gig on the strong side, though he'll get competition this year from Landon Johnson and perhaps Dan Connor. Diggs is nothing more than average at anything but also can do a little of everything competently. Johnson didn't do much in his first season in Carolina, though he fits better with the expected transformation to a more Tampa-2 based scheme. Connor missed his rookie year with a broken arm, but the team has high hopes he can spell Beason and Diggs and upgrade the special teams. You could do a lot worse for a No. 6 linebacker than James Anderson.
DB: Their corners get most of the attention, but very quietly the Panthers have themselves a very good safety duo in Charles Godfrey and Chris Harris. Godfrey was a godsend at free safety as a rookie, very reliable and a better deep cover man than expected. Harris was the savior the year prior, cast off from the Bears but immediately making a huge impact in replacing Mike Minter. Harris is a big-time hitter and does all the little things coaches (and teammates) love and respect. His leadership is a major asset. The switch to Ron Meeks' style of defense should suit him quite well, as he will be given more freedom to make plays closer to the line. There is solid depth at safety with Nate Salley and Quinton Teal, who spies tell me had an excellent offseason.
Top corner Chris Gamble finally emerged as the playmaking, shutdown player they envisioned, and he should be even better in the new style of defense. Gamble is among the elite corners in run support and at short-yardage coverage, yet he has the speed, fluidity, and size to match up with any receiver downfield. It's baffling why they failed to stick Gamble on Larry Fitzgerald in the playoff loss, but that's not Gamble's fault. Gamble will still bite too often and can play a little "slappy" (to quote Boomer Esiason). He gets a new running mate in Richard Marshall, who moves up from being a very good nickel back to starter with the departure of Ken Lucas. Marshall will have to adjust to moving from the slot to the outside, but he's proven worthy of the challenge. Rookie Sherrod Martin brings very good size and smart zone recognition and will be the nickel. He has the measurables and attitude to play safety in a pinch and is noted for his strong tackling. The coaching staff and some teammates have spoken very highly of CJ Wilson, who will get more playing time in 2009 after a strong finish in coverage last year. As a unit this is perhaps the best tackling secondary in the NFL and the new scheme should augment that reputation.
Special Teams: Carolina had a strange dichotomy in 2008. The punting units were terrible while the kicking units rated among the best in the league. Jason Baker bombed as the punter, getting both poor hang time and shorter distance than needed. He also had three kicks blocked, a major no-no. The coverage units, already stressed by his poor kicking, didn't help much. That's an oddity considering the team markedly improved its kickoff coverage from their disastrous 2007, when they ranked dead last with a bullet. The Panthers use a kickoff specialist in Rhys Lloyd. While I'm not a fan of burning a roster spot on such a superfluous position, it works well for them, and Lloyd will again rank near the league lead in touchbacks.
John Kasay appeared revitalized by not having to stress about kicking off and was very good in making field goals. His range tops out a little shorter than some others, but he trusts his leg and plays the winds quite well. The return spots are up for grabs after Mark Jones unexpectedly left for greener pastures. Ryne Robinson has the inside track, but between injuries and tentativeness he has never seized the job when given prior chances. A pair of rookies, Captain Munnerlyn and Larry Beavers, are poised to challenge. Expect a downgrade no matter who wins the gig. The Panthers will also be breaking in a new long snapper, likely Nick Sundberg. That always bears watching, as Jason Kyle was near-perfect for years in Carolina.
3 Keys To The Season:
1. Can Jake Delhomme shrug off the playoff abomination, advancing age, and a thin receiving corps to take enough pressure off the superb running game?
2. Will the special teams regress back to the major detriment of 2007, and can they find competent punting and return specialists?
3. Will Julius Peppers carry his disappointment over his contract status to disrupt his game, and can the defense adjust to a scheme change?
Forecast: It's not often a playoff team returns almost every starter, but the Panthers lost only one (Ken Lucas). This is a veteran team with solid talent all around and exceptional talents in several key spots. All signs point to another 10+ win season and a dangerous playoff contender, but there is more pratfall potential with Carolina than perhaps any other playoff-caliber team. Special teams, poor depth at quarterback, wide receiver, offensive line, and defensive tackle, overly conservative coaching, and a tangible sense of desperate urgency to win for Coach Fox and beloved owner Jerry Richardson, who is in poor health. There is a great deal of pressure, and the schedule makers did them no favors. Their first three games (PHI, @ATL, @DAL) and final four games (@NE, MIN, @NYG, NO) are all difficult, and this is a team that has been vulnerable to befuddling gaffes in what should be easy wins. I trust in their running game, their offensive line, and in their defensive talent. The Panthers won't repeat in the NFC South, but Carolina finishes 10-6 and sneaks into the playoffs thanks to early wins over Philadelphia and Atlanta.
- Jeff Risdon is RealGM's senior football writer. He may be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
