| Jeff Risdon. 20th July, 2009 - 10:01 am
 2008 record: 4-12, last in AFC North
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: +5, Sack Differential: -7, Point Differential: -118
Coming In: T John St. Clair, TE Robert Royal, S Abram Elam, CB Roderick Hood, DE Kenyon Coleman, LB David Bouwens, CB Hank Poteat, LB Eric Barton, WR David Patten, G Floyd Womack
Going Out: TE Kellen Winslow, T Kevin Shaffer, S Sean Jones, QB Bruce Gradkowski, RB Jason Wright, LB Andra Davis, WR Joe Jurevicius, TE Darnell Dinkins
Key Rookies: C Alex Mack, WR Brian Robiskie, WR Mohammad Massaquoi, DE/OLB David Veikune
Offense:
QB: The Battle of Lake Erie continues between Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson. All indications are that the job is Quinn's, but in keeping around former starter Anderson the Browns have opted to create an atmosphere of discomfort and uncertainty (the coaches call that "healthy" competition). Quinn showed promise in his 2008 starts before breaking his finger, but the key numbers and stats are almost the same as Anderson's. Quinn brings more mobility and swagger; Anderson has the bigger arm and can look like an elite talent when he's in one of his hot streaks, but misreads too many coverages and his accuracy is wildly unpredictable.
New Coach Eric Mangini bungled the QB controversy with the Jets two seasons ago, and the legitimate speculation that the Browns were interested in drafting Mark Sanchez only fuels the fire that neither Quinn nor Anderson are apples in Mangini's eyes. Former Jet Brett Ratliff gets tabbed as the #3 QB; he cannot be any worse than the Ken Dorsey/Bruce Gradkowski combo that failed to lead a single TD drive in the month of December.
RB: Jamal Lewis returns as the "feature" back. How much he has left and how frequently he'll be used are open questions. Backup Jerome Harrison showed some real ability to make things happen despite not having outstanding speed or size, though the former coaching staff rarely turned him loose. Mangini had a similar player in New York in Leon Washington (though Washington is much faster) and found a strong role for him, so expect a major jump from his 34 carries of a year ago. Lewis himself cracked 1000 yards and averaged over 5 yards per carry in the second halves of games, so he still has the ability to pound and wear down a defense. His teammates greatly respect his work ethic and toughness, and the OL is constructed perfectly for a back of his skills. But the elusiveness and wiggle that made him special are all but gone, and he's probably the slowest starting RB in the league. Getting versatile FB Lawrence Vickers back to health will help the offense; he's a thumping lead blocker with the vision of a halfback, and he's very good in pass protect situations. Keep an eye on rookie James Davis, who suffered through a miserable final season at Clemson but was regarded as a potential 1st round talent before that program imploded last year.
WR/TE: Braylon Edwards is the key. Blessed with tremendous physical skills and proving he's a legit Pro Bowl #1 wideout in 2007, Edwards struggled badly with drops and mental miscues throughout a disappointing 2008. He still performed quite well during the Browns' three national TV appearances, so the optimism in Cleveland isn't without merit. Many Browns "insiders" believe Edwards will be better served without Kellen Winslow around him. K2 will be missed for his ability to stretch the middle of the field and for his toughness, but his departure is a major case of addition by subtraction in the locker room and on the practice field.
The two rookie second round picks, Brian Robiskie and Mohammad Massaqoui, appear to be battling for the other starting position. Robiskie is similar to Edwards in size and physicality, and Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland correctly pointed out at the Senior Bowl they have the same flaw: they cannot catch passes when they're wide open because they worry about where the defense is, but are great in traffic because they know where the hit is coming from. Massaquoi is a quicker-than-fast oversized slot receiver who was plagued with the dropsies for much of his Georgia career. He has a knack for making the big play and is a big-time threat once he catches the ball. Veteran David Patten will see action in multiple wideout formations and can still get open, though he's not much of a threat beyond 10 yards even after the catch. He and former Lion Mike Furrey appear redundant as reliable possession receivers, though Furrey gets the edge as a blocker.
Special teams standout Josh Cribbs brings some value as a Wildcat package threat and will likely edge out Syndric Steptoe for the #5 job, though Cribbs did not catch a pass in 2008 and the diminutive Steptoe pulled down 19. Donte Stallworth's status is up in the air after his DUI manslaughter conviction, but judging from his chronic issues with minor injuries that severely limit his playing time anyways, any catches from Stallworth should be considered an unexpected bonus.
Without Winslow, the tight ends appear much less of a threat in the passing game. Steve Heiden is a quality #2 TE, sort of a jack-of-all/master-of-none role player. Import Robert Royal disappointed in Buffalo with inconsistency, though he does get open and catch well. Martin Rucker has great size and the speed to challenge the deep middle, but he's yet to do anything at the NFL level.
OL: This unit regressed in 2008 after a stellar 2007, but the potential is there to bounce back to elite status. LT Joe Thomas had a sophomore slump after a rookie campaign where he merited Rookie of the Year consideration. His run blocking remained very strong, but he struggled keeping his balance when facing faster edge rushers. Thomas still ranked in the upper half of tackles, and his work ethic and dedication make a rebound year a strong possibility. He and LG Eric Steinbach rank among the best LT/LG duos in the league. Steinbach fares much better against 4-3 fronts than 3-4 fronts, but his tenacity and ability to seal open holes are among the best.
Center is an interesting position for the Browns. Veteran Hank Fraley is revered in the locker room and has done a great job with line calls and pickups, but he struggled with 0-technique nose tackles, a real problem in a division with PIT and BAL. The Browns spent their first pick on Alex Mack, the best collegiate center prospect in years. Mack is incredibly agile and blessed with great upper body strength, and he fires out to the second level with a rare quickness and acumen. Mack could move to RG if Fraley steps up.
Free agent John St. Clair will start as the starting right tackle, but he may be pushed by utilityman Ryan Tucker. Tucker was very good two seasons ago at RG but suffered a bad hip injury, and it remains to be seen if he can come back. St. Clair bombed at LT in Chicago but proved a serviceable RT. RG is a pick 'em between Tucker, Rex Hadnot, and free agent Pork Chop Womack. None are any more than average linemen, but none are worse than that either. That gives the Browns admirable depth at every spot but left tackle.
Defense:
DL: One of the more misunderstood players in the league, Shaun Rogers was often the best DT in the league in 2008. Taking to the 0-gap nose position like Tommie Lee to attention, Rogers consistently fought double teams and still made plays in the backfield. Playing with passion and smartly rotated out more frequently than during his Detroit days, Rogers is a major force in the middle of the line. As excellent of an acquisition as Rogers proved, DE Corey Williams was a disappointment. Battling injuries and never really comfortable playing 3-technique, Williams contributed just one-half sack and generated half his 10 official QB pressures in one game (Cincinnati, home of the worst OL in the league last year). He is due for a bounceback season, but how high he can bounce is an open question. Shaun Smith and Kenyon Coleman will battle for the other DE spot, with Coleman having the edge as he came with Mangini from the Jets. Both are stay-at-home edge holders with enough skill and size to keep blockers busy, nothing more. Robaire Smith might be back from a torn Achilles, and he would bring more pass rush oomph to the DE spot if he has anything left.
When Rogers comes off the field in passing situations, Louis Leonard and newcomer CJ Mosley (guess where he came from!) will rotate in at the tackle spot(s). Both are young players who have shown just enough upside to live with their sloppy mistakes. Expect to see Williams slide inside at times and the Browns crowd the edges with different packages, a la the Browns of the Michael Dean Perry era. Too bad they don't have MDP anymore. The depth is solid but unremarkable, but if second year man-mountain Ahtyba Rubin develops as Rogers' understudy, it's got potential to be a pretty good DL.
LB: When you play a 3-4 defense, you'd better have multiple LBs that can make plays. One of the biggest problems in Cleveland under Romeo Crennel was the lack of dynamic linebackers. The clear cream of the crop is D'Qwell Jackson, who mans the LILB spot. You won't hear it from any of the prime networks, but Jackson has flown past draft classmate Demeco Ryans as the head of that class. As a tackler he rarely misses and has really improved at avoiding blocks (Rogers might have something to do with that), but he's not someone who forces many turnovers or fares real well in coverage. Almost all of his tackles come 3-5 yards downfield, though the more aggressive 3-4 scheme of new DC Rob Ryan should change that. Expect a heated battle for the other ILB spot between former Jet Eric Barton and holdover Leon Williams. Barton is very active but, like Jackson, makes most of his plays after the ball has passed 4-6 yards beyond the line. Williams fared well in limited snaps behind the departed Andra Davis; in fact, Williams was much better against the run, though he will whiff on too many tackles. If he can harness his energy and stay focused, he could be a solid starter with his speed and power.
OLB has been a major sore point, and that looks to continue. Kamerion Wimbley has fallen off the face of the pass-rushing planet after his stellar rookie year in 2006. His overall game has improved, but the Browns desperately need a return to 10+ sacks and 20+ QB pressures, and he hasn't combined for half that in the last two seasons combined. Wimbley is invaluable as a locker room presence and his lack of performance has not impacted his attitude or demeanor. Replacing greybeard Willie McGinest falls to former Jet (notice a theme here?) David Bowens, who is faster and should get 5-7 sacks and 10-12 QB pressures from the left side. The Browns have very high hopes for young Alex Hall, an impressive physical specimen who notched two sacks in his very first game before the Crennel regime realized they didn't want to offend McGinest and kept Hall largely sidelined. He's strictly a pass rush specialist, but that's precisely what the Browns need.
There is promising young depth all over the LB corps, with Hall, Beau Bell, and rookies Kaluka Maiava and David Veikune. Veikune has intriguing potential as a hybrid DE/OLB who had a lot of success getting to the QB at both Hawaii and during Senior Bowl week, where he consistently whipped Phil Loadholt (Vikings second round pick).
DB: The starting CBs will be Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald, both entering their third seasons. Wright is generally a pretty reliable cover man, though he tends to get burned at the most inopportune times. McDonald is more of a playmaker and rebounded nicely from a mid-season slump, though during that slump he was absolutely horrible. Wright almost always matches up against the opponent's top WR, and he backs down from no one. Both McDonald and Wright are sound in run support.
Rod Hood comes over from Arizona and will likely play outside in the nickel, with the smaller McDonald playing in the slot. Hank Poteat tagged along with the new coaches from the Jets, but his value is almost exclusively as a delegate from the coaches to help install and teach the defense. Corey Ivy and Terry Cousin are on the roster but should never see the field. Sixth round rookies Don Carey and Coye Francies appear to be fighting for the same spot, with Francies having the early edge and decent long-range potential. One potential wild card is Josh Cribbs, who a source tells me learned the defense quicker than any of the other DBs and has outstanding physical attributes to make the transition. It's a move I would strongly consider if I were Mangini, because Cribbs has never really taken to playing WR.
The Browns had a very strange safety mix last season. Free safety Brodney Pool is an underrated cover safety with good range and a nose for the ball. Last year he paired with Sean Jones to form one of the better playmaking duos in the league. The problem is that they were highly vulnerable to major communication breakdowns that led to big plays the other way. Jones opted to take significantly less money to move on, and he will be replaced by an eerily similar player in Abram Elam. Another Mangini favorite from the Jets, Elam is a hammer in run support. Much like Jones (though bigger), Elam fits best in the box and can get turned into a major liability against play action and faster tight ends. The Browns steadfastly insisted his inclusion in the Mark Sanchez deal, and if he develops the ability to keep receivers from getting behind him he can make the Pro Bowl. The cupboard is mighty bare behind the two starters, so good health is imperative.
Special Teams: Josh Cribbs cannot be overestimated here. I'll quote former GM Pat Kirwin from his Sirius NFL Radio show, "Josh Cribbs is the best all-around special teams player I've ever seen." He is All-Pro worthy as both a return man and as a coverage tackler. Cribbs is far from the only special teams asset, however. Punter Dave Zastudil and kicker Phil Dawson are both among the best in the league. Dawson has markedly improved the depth on his kickoffs and extended his FG range to near 55 yards. The team has an impressive cadre of well-coached young athletes on the coverage units, and the special teams have been a major strength for a team with far too few of them.
3 Keys To The Season:
1. Will Brady Quinn emerge as the franchise QB the team and the fan base desperately wants him to become?
2. How will the team handle the transition from the easy-going Romeo Crennel regime to the iron curtain-like Eric Mangini style?
3. Will the offensive and defensive lines play to their high level of potential, or will they be merely adequate as they were in 2008?
Forecast:
Last year the Browns were tabbed as the trendy team to make the playoffs after a 10-6 finish in 2007, but that bubble burst quickly for a variety of reasons. Enter a new coaching regime, new front office, and new culture. There is indeed some pretty good talent at a lot of key spots, but translating that talent into positive results has proven a tall order in Cleveland. The schedule is not pretty; the weakest teams on the schedule (KC, DEN, BUF) are road games, and the AFC North is always a slugfest. Still, this team is better on paper than Mangini's first Jets team, which shocked the world in jumping from 4-12 (like the 2008 Browns) to 10-6 and a playoff berth. Can he replicate that magic again? Unlikely, but not as ludicrous as it might appear. This team finishes 6-10 but won't be the pushover many anticipate.
- Jeff Risdon is RealGM's senior football writer. He may be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
