| Jeff Risdon. 15th July, 2009 - 8:52 am
 2008 record: 7-9, last in AFC East
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: -8, Sack Differential: -14, Point Differential: -6
Coming In: WR Terrell Owens, RB Dominic Rhodes, C Geoff Hangartner, CB Drayton Florence, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick
Going Out: G Derrick Dockery, T Jason Peters, LB Angelo Crowell, TE Robert Royal, C Melvin Fowler, QB JP Losman, OL Duke Preston
Key Rookies: C/G Eric Wood, G/T Andy Levitre, DE Aaron Maybin, TE Shawn Nelson, CB Cary Harris, CB Jairus Byrd
Offense:
QB: Trent Edwards returns as the unquestioned starter, and which Edwards shows up will go a long way in determining the fate of the Bills. He started 2008 very strong, but appeared shell-shocked and indecisive after taking some big hits. In his last 4 starts, Edwards completed just 3 passes longer than 15 yards against some pretty pedestrian secondaries. This offense is designed for a strong-armed, confident pocket presence that can handle the Lake Erie winds and aggressive divisional defenses. Edwards has shown glimpses of being that guy, but he has a lot to prove. The Edwards that played against Cleveland, San Francisco, and New England makes Joey Harrington look like Tom Brady. The Bills ended the JP Losman era and replaced him with ex-Bengal Ryan Fitzpatrick. As much as Bills faithful loathed Losman and his wildly inconsistent play, this is a downgrade and appears a lousy fit for their offense.
RB: Buffalo has a nice duo with flashy Marshawn Lynch and the completely unheralded Fred Jackson. They need Jackson’s steady presence, as the all-or-nothing Lynch runs as hot-and-cold as any player in the league. Lynch is also suspended for the first three games for his ongoing off-field issues. A dangerous receiver out of the backfield, Lynch runs with confidence and toughness and always at full speed. He doesn’t always find the hole or even wait for one to develop, however. Jackson is a more bruising runner who will take what’s given and fight for more. He is also an accomplished receiver. Together they form a very effective, very physical package that the coaches have considered playing together in certain formations. Adding to the fray is free agent Dominic Rhodes, who immediately becomes the best #3 RB in the league. Rhodes will fit well in Turk Schonert’s offense and remains a viable option to get 12-15 carries in the games Lynch will miss. This group gives reason for real promise, though a lot hinges on the enigmatic Lynch realizing he’s not 12 anymore.
WR/TE: This group was already the strength of the offense, but adding Terrell Owens gives the Bills an embarrassment of riches at wide receiver. For all the negatives (rightfully) lobbed at TO, he remains a legit #1 wideout with tremendous physical gifts. Though at times he can be apathetic, few WRs block with more ferocity or effectiveness as Owens. Not many have ever been as dangerous after the catch. On the flip side, TO’s battles with inexplicable drops and selfish behavior make him a pariah to many. His first step slipped a little last season, making him easier to jam. His act often wears thin very quickly, though he can be quite productive before that happens. The Bills have gambled it will work for one year; I’d agree with them if they had a better QB and OL.
This cast is far more than just the TO show, however. Lee Evans is a legit #1 in his own right and has proven one of the most dangerous mid-range and deep threats in the league. Extremely fast and quick to hit top speed, Evans is blessed with great hands and a lot of fight for a smaller dog. He changes speeds very effectively, allowing him to get separation. Elusive Roscoe Parrish is a very effective slot man. Parrish can stop and start on a dime and reliably finds gaps in the zones. There was some chatter that the Bills were trying to trade Parrish early this offseason, so it remains to be seen how that plays out. Josh Reed is a cagey underneath possession receiver with adequate size and excellent hands. A wild card is James Hardy, all 6’6” of him. After an injury-plagued rookie campaign where he struggled learning the offense and getting any sort of separation, Hardy could greatly benefit from the attention focused elsewhere and blossom into the red zone threat the Bills drafted him to be. That’s a big “if” though.
Buffalo appears to have addressed their long-term issue at tight end by drafting Shawn Nelson. Though Robert Royal wasn’t as bad as critics would have you believe, he failed to stretch the field or scare defenses. Nelson has great speed for his size and is comfortable running deeper routes. He might not get more than the 33 receptions Royal snagged, but expect the yardage to exceed the 351 by at least 100 yards. Derek Schouman and Derek Fine are both minor threats as reserve in-line tight ends. Schouman offers a little more in terms of blocking.
OL: This unit will look very different than last year, as RG Brad Butler is the only starter who will play the same spot as last season. Langston Walker moves from RT to LT, which probably suits him better. Walker is quite effective when he can extend his arms and face up the pass rusher, but he is not much of a drive blocker and struggles to maintain leverage. He’s a major departure from Jason Peters, a legit stud tackle but a disgruntled, prickly presence. There is an open battle for Walker’s old spot between career backup Kirk Chambers or rookie Andy Levitre. Chambers fits best as the top reserve swing tackle, a solid but unremarkable big man. Levitre is short for a tackle, but he brings nastiness and power to the table. If he fails to win the RT spot, he just might wind up winning the starting LG role. The Bills made a real solid under-the-radar move in picking up Geoff Hangartner from Carolina. Hangartner is a physical center who can create and seal holes and has the intelligence and quickness to handle the move from reserve to starter. He should be the lone positional upgrade along the front line. 1st round pick Eric Wood played center in college but has the physical ability to make a solid NFL guard as well. The aforementioned Butler is a plodding mauler who was easily exploited by quicker defenders, particularly when facing 3-4 fronts. He is a very adept run blocker who thrives at creating cutback lanes. Add raw, plucky Demetrius Bell to the mix at RT and perhaps LT if he develops quickly. This is a very unsettled group that won’t lack for toughness but will probably allow more than the 38 sacks they surrendered in 2008.
Defense:
DL: The Bills have to be happy with Marcus Stroud, who departed Jacksonville under circumspect circumstances but played very well in his first season in Buffalo. He’s the only line regular with any sort of bulky strength, and he knows how to use it well. Kyle Williams brings great effort and intensity to the table. He does a nice job peeling off blocks and making tackles just as the RB gets through the line. Spencer Johnson is a nice rotational sub that holds his ground well but offers little upfield surge. El busto John McCargo is only a Bill because the Colts negated a trade for him by failing his physical. In NFL parlance that means, "You’re too fat and lazy to make it."
The ends are a very big problem. Or rather, an undersized, underproductive problem. Aaron Schobel is the primary end and he can bring heat on the QB. Once he went down with a foot injury, the team’s pass rush evaporated. The Bills are banking on Schobel’s full recovery from Lisfranc surgery, but he cannot afford to lose even a quarter of a step. He’s not physical against the run and relies heavily on quickness to get past the tackle. He would make a nice complementary end to a dynamic pass rusher, but unfortunately the Bills don’t have one. They thought Chris Kelsay would be that guy when they signed him to lucrative extension a couple years ago, but he has bitterly disappointed. Far too content to stay engaged to blockers and beset by several nagging injuries, the Bills have floated his name in trade talks that have gone over like a lead balloon. They spent their first round pick on Aaron Maybin to help improve the pass rush. The Penn State product has an amazing burst around the edge and closes quickly on the QB, but he has just one move and was a major liability against the run in college. His small frame inhibits much progress in that regard.
LB: Paul Posluszny is a classic middle linebacker and he fits the base scheme of coordinator Perry Fewell nicely. He rebounded nicely from a rookie season essentially lost to injury, leading the team in tackles and showing he is a solid tackler with some pop to his hits. Posluszny needs to improve sifting through traffic and timing his blitzes, but all those draftniks who questioned his athleticism have been silenced. Kawika Mitchell and Keith Ellison start on the outside, and both need to play significantly better if the defense is to improve. Ellison is very good in coverage, one of the best in the league at tying up tight ends and snuffing out screens and flares. But he’s a major liability against the run; Bills fans will not-so-fondly recall Ellison getting flattened by BenJarvis Green-Ellis and Thomas Jones in the open field last season. Mitchell gets to blitz a lot, which is a mixed blessing. He’s not really an edge rusher but he blitzes under control and does a good job of not running out of the play. But teams figured out quickly that draw plays killed him, and neither he nor the defensive coaches ever put a finger in that dyke. Both he and Ellison are too easy to block and steer out of the way. John DiGiorgio is a competent backup with infectious spirit. Behind him, the backups are journeyman-in-training Pat Thomas and Alvin Bowen, with rookie Nic Harris trying to make the transition from slow college safety to undersized NFL LB. As spot relief or situational subs, the depth is fine, but if one of the starters goes down long-term, it falls off quickly.
There are two things that really stand out about the LBs. First is their decided lack of size; Mitchell is the only one who tops 235 on the scales, yet he’s arguably the fastest as well. Second is the passion with which they all play. This is a spirited, hard-nosed group despite (because of?) their inferior size. That unfortunately has led to breakdowns and overpursuit at times, but this is not a group that will be beaten on lack of effort.
DB: Cornerback is the most solid position on the defense. The starting duo of Terrence McGee and Leodis McKelvin rates among the better tandems, and McKelvin could emerge as a real star in his second season. He was the Bills’ best defensive player the second half of 2008, providing very good man coverage and learning how to better position himself in zone and deeper coverage schemes. It took him some time, but his great speed and natural instincts give him Pro Bowl potential. McGee is from the Dre Bly school; he can be very good in man coverage and is blessed with great hands, but will gamble and bite always looking for the big play. He has done a good job of compensating for his lack of size, using superior positioning with his body and very quick feet. The team is high enough on young Reggie Corner that they let solid vet Jabari Greer depart. Corner is quite small but (notice a trend here?) knows how to position himself to handle bigger receivers. He should fit nicely as the nickel slot back. The club signed Drayton Florence to bolster depth and add size, but he’s not real quick or aware in zone coverage, which the Bills tend to deploy against multiple WR packages. Ashton Youboty started strong before injuries ended his 2008, and this is probably his last shot to earn a second contract in Buffalo. He and rookie Cary Harris will fight for the #4 spot with fellow rookie Jairus Byrd, but he’s more apt to play safety.
The leader of the defense is safety Donte Whitner. He will start at strong safety and provides great range and “over” coverage. Eminently prepared and quick to diagnose plays, Whitner is quietly one of the best strong safeties in the league. The free safety spot is not so strong. Bryan Scott appears to have the inside edge to start, and he is strictly a run stuffer with good size and great pop to his hits. His idea of pass coverage is to slam into the receiver after the ball arrives, often a step later than needed. Ko Simpson has great physical tools but rarely winds up in the right place at the right time, and receivers get behind him far too easily. Rookie Jairus Byrd can play both corner and safety and will be given every chance to win the gig. A good CB at Oregon, he fits best in coverage and a run/pass rotation could emerge between Byrd and Scott. 7th rounder Ellis Lankster could play his way onto the field as well. The coaches have placed a much greater emphasis on making big plays and forcing turnovers (their safeties had zero INTs and Whitner zero passes defended in 2008), which suits Byrd well.
Special Teams: Coach Bobby April is a living legend as a special teams coordinator, and his magic has paid dividends in Buffalo. Brian Moorman is arguably the most popular punter in the league, though 2008 was not his best season. He should rebound with his booming leg and quick motion. Kicker Rian Lindell has been consistently outstanding at making FGs under 48 yards his entire 9-year career, save one bad stretch last year. The return units are very good, led by McKelvin and Parrish. Both are very dangerous open-field return men, and nobody outside of Devin Hester sets up blocks better than Parrish, who led the league in punt return average. The coverage units are unpredictable and use more starters than most teams deploy, though the Bills do have lots of younger athletic types that could fill some vital roles and let the starters catch their breath.
3 Keys to the season:
1. Is Trent Edwards a legit franchise QB? He has the weaponry; it’s on his shoulders.
2. Can a very undersized back 7 on defense hold up and make enough plays? Last season they started strong, but crashed around Halloween.
3. The pass rush/sack differential. If they are -14 (or worse) again, they will be hard-pressed to come anywhere near last year’s 7 wins.
Forecast:This shapes up to be a real tough year for the Bills. A more difficult non-divisional schedule (the cupcake NFC West is replaced by the NFC South, where all 4 teams won at least 8 games, and the AFC South featuring 3 potential 9+ win teams) pairs with a tough AFC East tilt, one in which Buffalo did not win a game last year. This team reminds me very much of the 2007 Lions heading into 2008 -- fast start with a high-octane offense but iffy OL and substandard QB that got exposed, an undersized defense playing too vanilla a scheme, stocked with nothing more than average talent across most of the roster and a coaching staff that lasted one year too long. The Lions, of course, went 0-16 the next season. The Bills will avoid that infamy, but this team is going to struggle to surpass 4 wins. Buffalo finishes 3-13 and will pick in the top 3 of the 2010 NFL draft.
- Jeff Risdon is RealGM's senior football writer. He may be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
