| Jeff Risdon. 13th July, 2009 - 2:57 pm
 2008 record: 0-16, last in NFC North
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: -9, Sack Differential: -22, Point Differential: -249 (NFL record)
Coming In: CB Philip Buchanon, WR Bryant Johnson, LB Julian Peterson, LB Larry Foote, RB Maurice Morris, T Jon Jansen, CB Anthony Henry, CB Eric King, DT Grady Jackson, FB Terrelle Smith, T Dan Loper, TE Will Heller, WR Ronald Curry, WR Dennis Northcutt
Going Out: QB Jon Kitna, WR Mike Furrey, T George Foster, QB Dan Orlovsky, DT Cory Redding, LB Paris Lenon, S Gerald Alexander, WR Shaun McDonald, CB Leigh Bodden, TE Michael Gaines, G Ed Mulitalo, CB Travis Fisher, S Dwight Smith, DT Shaun Cody, TE Dan Campbell
Key Rookies: QB Matt Stafford, TE Brandon Pettigrew, S Louis Delmas, LB DeAndre Levy, Sammie Hill
Offense
QB: There is competition between #1 overall pick Matt Stafford and holdover Daunte Culpepper, who shed nearly 40 pounds this offseason and wowed onlookers with his early camp performances. Stafford has exceeded early expectations and might play his way onto the field, though that is something the team will not rush. For a team that started overmatched Dan Orlovsky much of last season, either represents a significant upgrade. Stafford exhibited long stretches of greatness marred by streaks of inaccuracy, both in throws and decisions, during his Georgia tenure. Seasoned Lions observers are not-so-quietly impressed with his progress so far, and he represents genuine hope for the future. The growing pains will show, and historically rookie 1st round underclassmen struggle with some pretty weak numbers; since 1999, they average 54% completions, 8 TDs, 11 INTs, and get sacked once every 9.9 attempts (thanks Sirius NFL radio for that nugget). Sadly that would still be progress in Detroit. With Culpepper still around trying to resuscitate his career, the Lions have their best 1-2 QB punch in eons. Take that statement with a bottle of salt, however. Waste-of-a-2nd rounder Drew Stanton will hold the clipboard for the 3rd season in a row, if the Lions choose not to bring in a veteran.
RB: One of the few bright spots from 2008 was the performance of rookie Kevin Smith. When given chances and a QB who could stretch the field, Smith performed well above expectation. Smith shows good burst out of his cuts and the ability to find the hole. He also hauled in 39 catches and progressed nicely in pass protect mode. Smith answered questions about his durability and strength impressively. New backup Maurice Morris is a similar type runner who should help share the load more than any of the marginal backups last season. Morris has the hands and acumen to fill the long-time hole as the 3rd down back. Veteran FB Terrelle Smith upgrades the lead blocking, though to say he’s long in the tooth is an insult to vampires. He and Jerome Felton fill the same role and it’s doubtful the team keeps both on the active roster. If rookie Aaron Brown can stay healthy, his straight-line speed could allow him to contribute.
WR/TE: Calvin Johnson is easily the most talented Lions player and can make annual reservations for wherever they decide to play the Pro Bowl. His 78 catches for over 1300 yards is all the more impressive considering the Lions used five different QBs and he constantly faced double coverage. His blend of size, speed, and strength is what others are measured against. If he develops chemistry with Stafford, Johnson could emerge as one of the league’s premier weapons. Newcomer Bryant Johnson gets the #2 role, which should suit him better than his middling season with the 49ers. Another bigger guy who can get separation deep down the field and make things happen after the catch, Johnson improves the size and range at the complementary receiver spot.
Beyond the Johnsons, the picture is cloudy. Former Raider Ronald Curry signed on to be the #3, but his inability to stay healthy and his greatly diminished speed and burst limit what he can do. John Standeford impressed in limited duty late last season. His height and precision route running make him a very good candidate to develop into a solid possession receiver. Rookie Derrick Williams has intriguing potential with his package of quickness and strong hands. He was a legit downfield threat at Penn State, but he fell to the bottom of the 3rd round for a reason and will likely contribute more on special teams than the offense. Veteran Dennis Northcutt came over in an offseason trade, but there’s a reason why the WR-poor Jaguars let him go. The coaches love Adam Jennings’ speed and elusiveness, but he’s undersized for an undersized guy. The skilled, proven depth of the Martz era is gone, but this is still a respectable group with an amazing headliner.
The tight end spot will look markedly different than in recent years. The booty for Roy Williams, rookie Brandon Pettigrew is a massive target with great hands. Leading into the draft I talked to respected coaches who called him one of the 10 best blocking tight ends before he was even drafted. He’s not fast, but he has an innate understanding of how to get open and present himself as a target, and he’s a real load to tackle. Will Heller also joins the party, and his specialty is chip blocking down and then getting out in front of the ballcarrier. The blocking help should be a major upgrade and help Kevin Smith have a better season.
OL: This embattled unit holds the key to the offense. One offseason move was to bring in Michigan Man Jon Jansen, released (with good reason) from the Ethnic Slurs. Jansen figures to be the backup RT, but it’s not out of the question that the team starts Jansen and moves incumbent Gosder Cherilus inside to RG. Cherilus was all over the map as a rookie, but generally showed strong run blocking ability. His slow feet might foster a move inside, but only if the oft-injured Jansen has anything left. Jansen can still maul with the best of them, but his body is at the end of functional capacity, and he struggled mightily with speed off the edge.
Pass protection is an issue all over the line, but especially off the edge. LT Jeff Backus is better than most Lions fans think, but his struggles with pass rushers who have more than one trick are infamous in Detroit. Backus’ weaknesses were exacerbated in the Mike Martz schemes of 2006-07, and he struggled to get back to form last year. The new straightforward power blocking scheme should help him avoid the boo birds, but he’s never going to be more than an average tackle on his good days. Center Dominic Raiola plays with tremendous passion and is one of the quickest pivots in the league, but he’s undersized and does not create much movement in run blocking. Normally quite durable, Raiola missed some time last year, and the Lions were able to run the ball between the tackles much more effectively in his absence. His leadership is a major asset.
Guard Steve Peterman outplayed expectations last year and proved to be a shrewd acquisition. He has the toughness and footwork to handle all sorts of pass rushers, and he excels at maintaining his run blocks. Coach Schwartz brought G Daniel Loper with him from Tennessee, and the converted tackle is being given every chance to win the LG spot. He’s a little tall at 6’6” for the spot, but his nastiness and power give him a shot. He should win the spot over Damion Cook, who is best served as a reserve. The team took a late-round flyer on Lydon Murtha, an extremely athletic tackle who had major problems staying healthy. Murtha ended OTAs in great shape and drew raves from the offensive coaches, and at worst he’s a worthwhile developmental depth project. The overall depth here is improved, and the run blocking potential is pretty strong. But it sure looks like pass protection will remain a bugaboo, and it might take some time before the coaches find a suitable mix.
Defense
DL: The single biggest failure of the Marinelli era was the inability of the defensive line guru coach to develop any sort of effective defensive line. The undersized, strictly regimented unit needed an overhaul, and that process in underway. The starting ends, Dewayne White and Cliff Avril, are adequate. White doesn’t make a lot of plays but he does a lot of the little things very well, things that help make life easier for his teammates. Avril finished his rookie campaign strongly, showing great burst around the edge and the ability to finish in the backfield. The Lions are hopeful he can progress from being a nickel-package specialist into a full-time end, but that remains to be seen. Veteran Jared Devries fits well as a jack-of-all, master-of-no trades who gives great effort and leads by example. In the few opportunities given, Devries showed surprising acumen in dropping into coverage. You can bet the new coaching staff noticed.
The tackle position is a huge question, full of open competition for both starting and reserve spots. Massive free agent Grady Jackson will play limited snaps at the nose, that much is a given. What’s not a given is how much he has left in the tank or if he can in fact take a step to either side. He’ll help shore up the interior run defense, a major weakness for years. Andre Fluellen and Chuck Darby will fight for the interior pass rushing spot, with young Fluellen having the edge. He has quickness and good recognition but needs to build strength and use his hands better. Rookie widebody Sammie Hill turned heads in offseason camps and could make a big splash. He faces a huge transition from D-III Stillman College, however. If he continues to impress, the aging, nondescript Darby could find himself on the street. The back end of the line is cluttered with eminently replaceable wasted draft picks like Ikaika Alama-Francis and Landon Cohen.
LB: Lions fans will notice the major upgrade here right away. Long a huge detriment, the LB corps now features three legit NFL starters with experience and playmaking ability. Ernie Sims is one of the biggest hitters in the league, and he flies all over the field in pursuit. He is prone to overpursuit and misreading his keys, though he did improve in pass coverage in 2008. A classic Tampa 2 weakside backer, Sims’ lack of size predicates having a strong line in front of him to keep blockers away, which looks to be an ongoing issue. The new man in the middle is former Steeler Larry Foote, and he is a huge improvement over the carousel of crap that has filled that spot since Chris Spielman left the team over a decade ago. Foote thrives as a read-and-react backer who attacks with ferocity. He’s one of the surest tacklers around, and he seldom gets caught out of position. His genuine enthusiasm for returning home to play in Detroit is a real positive as well.
Another Michigander coming back home is Julian Peterson, who will start on the strong side. Peterson excels as a pass rusher off the edge, another type of player the Lions have lacked for years. His quickness and closing speed will help against the run as well, and he has the strength to anchor the edge better than any recent predecessor in Detroit. While he’s on the downside, he still represents significant improvement. His skills should mesh well with the more aggressive, attacking scheme deployed by new DC Gunther Cunningham.
Despite the upgrades, it’s still not all wine and roses. The depth is real thin, with terribly undersized Alex Lewis the only proven commodity. Lewis is primarily a special teams guy who has some ability in coverage, but he’s not strong enough or quick enough to react to be more than a spot player in the base defense. Jordon Dizon is even smaller, and he struggled badly as a rookie last year, playing his way out of the lineup with his complete inability to shed blocks or navigate thru traffic. Rookie DeAndre Levy brings better size and is being groomed to play both inside and outside. He should flourish in time, but it’s a big learning curve for a 4th round rookie. If any of the starters go down, so will the level of play--significantly.
DB: It’s conceivable that the Lions will feature 4 new starters in the secondary, and it’s also hard to imagine this group being any worse. Newcomers Philip Buchanon and Anthony Henry have the inside track to start at corner, though Eric King and holdover Keith Smith will figure in the mix. Buchanon brings playmaking flair and speed, both in short supply last year. He will get pushed around by more physical receivers, but the NFC North has a decided lack of those. Henry is overly physical and has great size, but he’s more of a hybrid CB/S. Ideally, he will play safety on base downs and slide to outside strong-side CB in nickel and dime packages, as his lack of speed and propensity for stumbling leave him vulnerable to quicker, smaller wideouts. Smith was often the best cover man for the Lions last year, though sadly that says more about the putridity around him. He is a competent nickel CB. Eric King came over from the Titans with Coach Schwartz, and the coaches believe he will thrive with more playing time. His attitude and toughness will be welcome additions.
It’s too early to say for sure, but the Lions found themselves a major difference-maker in rookie safety Louis Delmas. He will start from day one and has already assumed a prominent leadership role in offseason workouts. Delmas plays with a similar style to Bob Sanders, only bigger and a little more polished in coverage than when Sanders entered the league. There is still a learning curve and Delmas must improve his coverage recognition when multiple receivers go deep, but close Lions observers believe he will quickly become a legit star in the NFL. The other safety spot appears to be Daniel Bullocks, after the team dealt Gerald Alexander. Bullocks has decent range and hits with some thump, but he doesn’t always see the play quick enough and struggles to avoid blocks. Kalvin Pearson played well as a 3rd safety last year and will carry on in that role once again.
Special Teams: This was the one part of the team that excelled in 2008. In Jason Hanson and Nick Harris, the Lions feature arguably the best PK/P duo in the league. Hanson has been with the Lions seemingly forever (okay, 18 years) but his leg strength is still top notch; he set an NFL record last year by making 8 FGs of 50+ yards without a miss. Harris deserved a Pro Bowl spot with his improved directional punting and outstanding ability to pin the ball deep. Special mention to long snapper Don Muhlbach, easily among the best in the business thanks to unwavering accuracy and quickness of delivery.
The return and coverage units weren’t so strong despite being a major focus of former coach Marinelli. The team drafted two pseudo return specialists in Derrick Williams and Aaron Brown. Brown in particular will be given every chance to earn the gig. Williams had his moments in college, but at the Senior Bowl he simply could not cleanly field the ball. The team lacks a special teams demon that so many others have, as Kalvin Pearson did not meet expectations in that role. With all the roster turnover and fresh faces, this unit might struggle worse than last year.
3 Keys to the season:
1. How quickly can the new coaching staff change the culture of losing? The team underwent a major overhaul and has some promising young talent, but that’s been true before and never worked out.
2. The upgraded LB corps must prove their mettle against both the run and in rushing the passer.
3. The offensive skill positions are an asset, but an unproven, unsettled OL must give them the opportunity to make plays.
Forecast:
This might be the most improved team in the league. Even so, it’s hard to see a major leap in wins like some other recent historically dreadful teams have done. If Stafford is the real deal and the defense can get off the field and force some turnovers, the Lions could sneak into 6-7 wins. But I think the growing pains will cost some games, and the defense has to develop more proven toughness and playmaking ability. The Lions climb up from being the worst team in NFL history to net 4 wins and generate some genuine optimism for the next few seasons.
- Jeff Risdon is RealGM's senior football writer. He may be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
