| Jeff Risdon. 3rd September, 2008 - 2:18 pm
 Last Season: 1-15, 4th in AFC East, -170 point differential, -7 turnover ratio
Additions: QB Chad Pennington, TE Anthony Fasano, LB Akin Ayodele, WR Ernest Wilford, LB Reggie Torbor, G Justin Smiley, DT Randy Starks, OL Andy Alleman
Subtractions: LB Zach Thomas, DE Jason Taylor, G Rex Hadnot, S Cam Worrell, LB Derrick Pope, WR Marty Booker, RB Lorenzo Booker, LT LJ Shelton, S Lance Schulters, RB Jesse Chatman, DT Keith Traylor, LB Donnie Spragan, G Chris Liwienski, FB Reagan Mauia
Rookies of Note: LT Jake Long, G Donald Thomas, DE Kendall Langford, DE Philip Merling, K Dan Carpenter, WR Davone Bess
Because the Dolphins are at the beginning of a rebuilding process, what constitutes a successful season is not necessarily measured in wins and losses. So in lieu of the standard format, I give you 8 reasons for hope, paired with 4 reasons not to get your hopes up too much.
8 Reasons for Hope:
1. The organization realized it was time to wipe everything out and start fresh. That’s a very difficult and fairly unusual step for an owner to make, particularly one in a fickle market with a team that some (not me--I picked 3-13!) thought might contend for a playoff spot even last season. Give owner Wayne Huizenga credit for harkening back to the industry where he made his fortune--he knew it was time to throw out all the trash, no recycling necessary. Not even half the guys who finished last season as Dolphins are back, and 11 rookies made the final 53-man roster.
2. New President/Majordomo Bill Parcells is one of the few guys with experience in undertaking such a massive overhaul. The Tuna has even done it with a 1-15 team before--he transformed the 1997 Jets from that awful record into a very respectable 9-7 and won the AFC East at 12-4 the following season. Another guy who has done it successfully is Dan Henning, the new offensive coordinator, when he was in Carolina. The cupboard here in Miami isn’t as stocked as the Jets' and Panthers' teams they took over, but Miami added more functional talent this offseason to help make up the difference.
3. The offensive line is pretty good already, with the potential to be an elite unit very soon. C Samson Satele emerged as an outstanding run blocker, making the rookie one of the few bright spots of 2007. Drafting Jake Long at #1 overall was a smart move. Even though he’s probably better suited to play RT, Long has a very high floor to match his high ceiling and will represent an immediate upgrade at LT. His nastiness and agility in run blocking are vintage Parcells. Bringing in hardnosed Justin Smiley strengthens the LG spot, while rookie Donald Thomas earned his way to the starting RG position. With decent veteran Vernon Carey back at RT where he belongs, the OL will be much improved. Sources tell me Carey has been a great mentor to Long, sharing his experiences and struggles at the left side. They even added some promising young depth with guys like Shawn Murphy and Andy Alleman. The quickest way to get better on offense is to improve the OL, and that’s exactly what the Dolphins have done.
4. The RB duo of Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown could be one of the best in the league. Ricky appears motivated and in shape, and the last time that happened he led the league in rushing. Brown was off to a spectacular start in 07 before an injury wiped out his season; he had a hair under 1000 combined yards in less than 7 full games. Behind a line that should be better at run blocking than pass blocking, the Dolphins will have the horses to grind out long drives and break the occasional big play. The depth allows both guys to stay fresh and keeps the motivation high, something that has plagued both Brown and Williams in the past.
5. Thanks to the dreadful 2007, the Dolphins drew a last-place schedule. They are also helped by the schedule rotation, which replaces the tough AFC North and all-above .500 NFC East with the thin AFC West and the weakest division outside their own, the NFC West. San Diego and Seattle are the only teams on the non-divisional schedule that made the playoffs in 2007, and both those games are cross-country roadies for them in Miami. There are quite a few more potential wins on this schedule than last year’s; even the hapless 07 Dolphins could have won 2 or 3 more games against this slate.
6. Picking up Chad Pennington to be the starting QB is a major coup. Before the Favre developments in New York, I wrote the following about Pennington in my Jets preview, “Pennington has every attribute that defines greatness at the QB position except the ability to throw the ball more than 20 yards in any direction”. That’s still true, and he comes to Miami still ranked as the most accurate passer in NFL history. The downfield threat is essentially gone, but that cloud has a silver lining: Ted Ginn will be forced to learn how to run something other than downfield routes, which will greatly aid his development as an overall receiver. Pennington’s experience with the Parcells Way will prove invaluable for rookie Chad Henne, his eventual successor.
7. Punter Brandon Fields was another one of the few bright spots in 2007, and the rookie from Michigan State appears destined for a long career. Fields showed a tremendous acumen for directional kicking, and he turned some pretty lousy snaps into some pretty good kicks, albeit with poor hang time. He got a lot of practice and averaged just under 49 yards per kick when kicking from inside his own 20.
8. Despite the roster purge, Parcells kept a few useful veterans from the defense. CB Will Allen is a legit #1 cover corner who would likely have made the Pro Bowl if he didn’t drop 6 potential INT's. He is accustomed to the tighter press coverage Parcells traditionally favors. LB Channing Crowder hasn’t really lived up to expectations, but he’s a solid all-around backer and has filled the leadership vacuum nicely. Joey Porter was given a one year make-do after flopping in his first season in Miami. He gets to play a role more similar to what he did in Pittsburgh, where he was one of most feared pass rushing LBs in the game. Matt Roth looks like the hybrid DE/OLB role might be the best fit for his skill set, and that could salvage a career that has been largely disappointing, though not for lack of effort on his part. Yeremiah Bell is a Pro Bowl caliber strong safety if he can ever fully recover from a torn Achilles.
And 4 reasons why Dolphins fans shouldn’t plan on buying playoff tickets anytime soon...
1. The passing game is still one of the worst in the league. Pennington will help, but his lack of velocity limits the routes and keeps the field crowded. Ginn has Usain Bolt-like speed but still needs lots of work on the intricacies of playing WR. Ernest Wilford is a perfect fit for Pennington on paper, but he barely survived the final cut and will have to really work just to get on the field, and it’s his lack of work that put him in the doghouse in the first place. Derek Hagans, Greg Camarillo, and undrafted rookie Davone Bess scare no one (except Camarillo beating the Ravens), though Bess has the makings of a future starter according to a trusted source. It doesn’t help that the OL will be much better run blocking than in pass protection.
2. The run defense is a major question. NT Jason Ferguson is iffy, coming off a torn triceps and approaching 34 years old. If he can’t go, the Dolphins turn to, uh, hmm, someone else, probably Randy Starks. A lot of fanfare was made about picking up Akin Ayodele from the Cowboys, but he is nothing more than a cleanup tackler, often a lot further from the line of scrimmage than needed. If Bell can’t answer the bell at safety, the secondary offers little help as he is the only safety worth moving up inside the box. The rookie ends, Langford and Merling, both have decent run-stopping credentials, but they are in the NFL because of their expected ability to rush the passer, not stuff the run. It’s very hard for a 3-4 base defense to stop the run without very good talent at NT, ILB, and SS, and the Dolphins have barely serviceable (if that) talent at those spots until proven otherwise.
3. 27 new players on the 53 man roster, including 11 rookies. That’s an awful lot of growing pains and on-the-job learning. They will all be better for it in a couple of years when this team is a feasible playoff threat, but getting to that point will often not look pretty. Finding chemistry and cohesion is going to take some time. That task is made more difficult by the omnipresent awareness that at least a quarter of the roster will likely turn over next summer. It will keenly show on special teams, which were already a disaster area. Tony Sparano is learning the Head Coach job on the fly as well, though he’s got a pretty good mentor above him on the org chart.
4. The division around them got tougher. The Patriots are still Super Bowl favorites and loaded on both sides of the ball. The Jets, as you may have heard, picked up a new starting QB along with $140 million worth of free agent talent. They aren’t likely to get their money’s worth, but they will certainly be better. Buffalo sent a league-high 17 players to IR last season and still showed strong signs of progress. All those injuries provided depth and confidence, and the injury bug almost certainly won’t be so virulent this year. The quickest way to pick yourself off the cold, dirty cellar floor is to reach up and drag down the division rivals ahead of you, but it stretches the term “optimistic” to think they’ll be any better than 2-4 in the division. It’s just as likely they take another 0-fer.
Prediction: This team wasn’t as awful as the 1-15 record they posted in 2007, but it wasn’t a fluke either. The rebuild has begun, and the overall talent level of the team is headed in the right direction. But it’s still got a long way to go before this team gets back to .500. Years of terrible drafting and coaches completely inept at player development (say hi to Little Nicky Saban) left this roster in need of more than the 27 new players that fill the depth chart in 2008. So long as the “Parcells Guys” (Pennington, Ferguson, Ayodele) and the premium young talent (Long, Satele, Ginn, Bell) can stay healthy, this group is good enough to finish 6-10 and challenge for 3rd in the AFC East. But growing pains and injuries could easily halve that expectation.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
