| Jeff Risdon. 25th August, 2008 - 8:41 pm
 Last Season: 11-5, 1st in AFC West, lost AFC Championship, +128 point differential, +24 turnover ratio
Additions: LB Derek Smith, T LJ Shelton
Subtractions: RB Michael Turner, CB Drayton Florence, T Shane Olivea, FB Lorenzo Neal, S Marlon McCree
Rookies of Note: RB Jacob Hester, CB Antoine Cason
What I like
Offense: The obvious starting point is LaDanian Tomlinson (hereafter LT), the best RB in the league who is approaching merit in the conversation as one of the best rushers of all time. Some would point to freakishly gifted TE Antonio Gates, the premier big-play receiving TE in the league who is no slouch as a blocker. Others point to the development of QB Philip Rivers, who matured into a team leader and Pro Bowl caliber quarterback while directing the Chargers' potent offense with great efficiency. The stats-behind-the-stats aficionados espouse the greatness of the offensive line, particularly giant LT Marcus McNeill and mauling G Kris Dielman. And K Nate Kaeding has made many a fantasy owner happy with his long range and consistent accuracy. Even Head Coach Norv Turner gets loads of accolades for his work in developing Rivers and installing a diverse gameplan that keeps defenses chronically off-balance. You can’t forget the brilliant thievery of WR Chris Chambers, obtained for a song in midseason and finally providing the Bolts with a legit #1 WR and big-play wideout. Even the “minor” players like rookie FB Jacob Hester and backup QB Billy Volek are better than their counterparts on most teams. The Chargers simply have premium talent across the board, and that talent has experience playing together and strong chemistry, plus a newfound confidence after their impressive playoff performances.
Defense: NT Jamal Williams is the picture in the dictionary when you look up “3-4 nose man”. Of course that’s not a word, but Williams is the epitome of what defensive coordinators want from their NT--big, athletic, commanding double teams on every snap and still able to make plays. His presence in the middle allows ends Igor Olshansky and Luis Castillo to face numerous favorable matchups and excel at stuffing the run. Olshansky has some pass rush burst, but the primary attack on opposing backfields comes from the outside linebackers.
One of those OLB's is Shawne Merriman, who rates among both the most talented and most enigmatic players in the game. His ability to turn the corner and finish plays in the backfield make Merriman a Pro Bowler and game changer. He’s often worthless against the run and his intensity and hyperkinetic persona can grate on teammates, but he is the primary difference between this Chargers D being pretty good and being dominant.
Fellow LB's Stephen Cooper and Shaun Phillips do a great job picking up the slack against the run. Both are also good in coverage, and ILB Matt Wilhelm isn’t nearly as bad as many publications would have people believe.
The secondary was certainly special in 2007, and there is no reason to believe it won’t be among the very best in the NFL in 2008. CB Antonio Cromartie broke out with a league-leading 10 INTs, but just as importantly, he really improved his overall skill in coverage. His size and closing speed make Cromartie an elite talent. His emergence took some pressure of Quentin Jammer on the other side, and Jammer responded with a great season of his own. Always strong against the run, Jammer showed in the playoffs he could capably handle Reggie Wayne and Randy Moss when provided with a pass rush. Rookie Antoine Cason will step into the nickel back role, which is a nice fit for him. Safety Clinton Hart stepped up big in run support, consistently making plays inside the box and doing a good job of recognizing draws and screens. Eric Weddle showed enough as a rookie that San Diego cut Marlon McCree and handed Weddle the other starting safety gig. A gifted athlete with solid coverage technique and sure tackling form, Weddle is a trendy pick to be one of the breakout stars of 2008.
The Chargers have legit weaponry across the special teams units. K Nate Kaeding is near-perfect on FGs with range out to 50 yards, and he has produced in the clutch. P Mike Scifres has a booming leg and seldom outkicks his coverage. Return specialist Darren Sproles uses his 5’6” build and supreme agility quite effectively and is a threat to break every return for a long gain. Kassim Osgood deservedly made the Pro Bowl as a coverage specialist, and it says quite a bit about his value in that capacity since Osgood’s roster spot is never in danger despite his worthlessness as a WR. He is the best in the business at downing punts deep in opposing territory, perhaps the best ever.
What I dislike
Offense: Most of the key players are coming off injuries and are in varying states of recovery. Right now the biggest question involves Antonio Gates and his toe injury, which might force him to miss a couple of regular season games. It’s not an easy injury to rehab, and from personal experience I can tell you that Gates will likely be robbed of his explosiveness and ability to sharply cut. If Gates isn’t at least 95% of his old self, the offense could have some real problems. Philip Rivers is coming back from ACL surgery, though he has looked impressive thus far this summer. Two other high-quality QBs have undergone the same surgery in recent years, and both Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb saw their numbers decline in their first year back. LT had to leave the AFC title game early and will miss the entire preseason, and top backup Michael Turner is now in Atlanta. He is also reaching the age where an inevitable slowdown occurs, and the heavy mileage on his legs certainly isn’t helped by his groin injury. C Nick Hardwick is likely to miss the first handful of regular season games. Starting WR Vincent Jackson has missed the preseason with a bad hamstring, never an easy injury to lick for a wide receiver. That’s an awful lot of talent coming back from an awful lot of surgeries and injuries. They do have depth, but you simply do not replace the likes of LT, Gates, or Rivers.
Adding Chris Chambers last midseason was quite a coup, but wide receiver is still the weak point of the offense. Vincent Jackson has never turned the corner although he was awesome in the 2007 playoffs. Legedu Naanee has a better name than receiving skills. Buster Davis could help fill the hole if he can build upon an uneven, injury-marred rookie year. He has a long way to go to make that happen, and good starting points would be learning how to block and how to cut at full speed. If Gates is healthy, the need for WR depth and production is mitigated, but if the big TE isn’t his old self, there will be a lot of pressure on these wideouts to produce far more than they’ve ever shown before.
Defense: The defense isn’t immune from the injury bug, as Shawne Merriman is struggling with the aftermath of offseason knee surgery. This bears watching closely, because if he loses any of his trademark explosiveness, the finely tuned carriage turns into a pumpkin quickly. With fellow starter Stephen Cooper suspended for the first 4 games for illegal drugs, the dominant LB play that makes this defense special is a legit question. Without Cooper, increased pressure falls onto the weakest starter in the unit, Matt Wilhelm, though newcomer Derek Smith will certainly ease the burden. Luis Castillo has missed most camp activities with a wonky back, and the one area where the Bolts lack depth is on the DL.
The big potential downfall is the inability to produce so many turnovers. That’s not an indictment of the playmakers all over the defense but rather a function of just how prolific the unit was at forcing turnovers last season. Many recent teams (the Bengals, Seahawks, and Steelers teams come to mind) have proven t'hat the ability to produce turnovers, especially INTs, is not an ability that necessarily carries over from year to year. That gaudy +24 margin will almost certainly regress; how far back to the pack they come is the question. Consider that last year the Chargers picked off 30 passes, most in the league since 2002. Since 2002, the top 5 teams in INTs in each season average a little over 24 INTs. Take each of those teams into the next season, and those same units averaged just 16.2 INTs, which is roughly the league average. The only teams that finished in the top 5 in consecutive seasons are the 2002/03 Ravens and the Bears in 2005 and 2006.
Best Case: All the wounded cogs get healthy enough by January for a deep playoff run. This team is capable of winning the Super Bowl after having home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Worst Case: The injuries linger and both sides of the ball regress because of it; the bad karma of having 3 prominent defensive starters all busted for steroids in the past 3 years bites them where it hurts; early struggles turn up the heat on Coach Turner and both he and the team fail to quell the negativity. If the turnover balance (discussed above) really falters and the injuries slow the offense, it is conceivable the Chargers fall back to 8 or 9 wins, but there is almost no way the Chargers fail to make the playoffs so long as they handle their business in the weak AFC West.
Bellwether Games: Weeks 6-8 are a tough stretch. It starts with a prime-time matchup against the Patriots in a game that could decide home field advantage in the playoffs. Following that grudge match are trips to Buffalo and New Orleans, two teams that figure into the playoff mix. The Saints game in particular bears watching, as they are one of the few teams that can feasibly outscore the Chargers in a shootout. The latter two games are the 3rd and 4th road games over a 5-week stretch, as tough a challenge for NFL teams as the 4-games-in-5-nighters are for NBA teams.
Prediction: There is so much talent all over the roster that the Chargers can absorb a slow start from some of the walking wounded. So long as the key pieces (LT, Rivers, Merriman, Gates, Chambers, Jamal Williams) all stay close to 100%, there is no reason San Diego won’t dominate the AFC West and earn a 1st round playoff bye. This team has a real shot to win 14 or even 15 games, but between the lingering injuries, the anticipated regression of the turnover ratio, and a more difficult schedule, I’ll settle on a forecast of 12-4.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
