| Jeff Risdon. 5th September, 2006 - 3:45 am
 Last season: 11-5, lost Wild Card game
Coming: LB Jamie Winborn, WR David Boston, TE Doug Jolley, G Toniu Fonoti
Going: F Jameel Cook, QB Brian Griese, S Dexter Jackson
Rookies of Note: T Jeremy Trueblood
What I like: Lots of continuity for a team that features an emerging offense and a top-5 defense. QB Chris Simms is quickly becoming a great thrower and team leader. RB Carnell Williams was the best offensive rookie in a draft class full of good players. WRs Joey Galloway, Michael Clayton, and a rejuvenated David Boston are an above-average set of receivers. All 5 starters on the OL return, and all started all 16 games last season, one of only 3 units to do so. The team also added good depth up front via the draft and free agency, some of which might take over starting jobs. Defensively this team is stacked, though a bit long in the tooth. CB Ronde Barber is the best in the business, particularly against the run. The zone coverage scheme that predominates is a perfect fit for their secondary personnel, and they have experience and confidence in one another. LB Derrick Brooks is still an impact player, as is fellow LB Shelton Quarles. The front 4 were the best in the league versus the run, and they’re also able to generate enough pass rush to negate the need for lots of blitzing. Head Coach Jon Gruden is the type of persona who can absorb the criticism for his team when things don’t go well, a very important attribute with a young QB and a team prone to embarrassing losses every so often.
What I dislike: Though Chris Simms looked great at times and has excelled in preseason, he’s entering year 2 as a starter, as is RB Williams and TE Alex Smith, the three best offensive players; there’s a reason the phrase “sophomore slump” gets repeated so often. It hit them hard last year with WR Clayton, making his value hard to gauge. Though the OL returns intact, none of them will ever sniff a Pro Bowl. There is almost no proven depth anywhere on defense, and 7 starters will be 31 or older by season’s end. That puts a tremendous deal of pressure on staying healthy for guys with a lot of mileage on their bodies. The Bucs have struggled for decades on kick return, and overall special teams are no better than average. They “lucked” into a couple of flukish wins last season against a couple of poor teams; Detroit actually won their game if not for an inconceivable instant replay reversal of a TD pass. Tampa Bay also lost to the lowly Jets and 49ers, and had just 2 wins by more than 11 points. Another example of flukish fortune: the Bucs were 31st in 1st down yardage, but 11th in 3rd down conversions, and obtained more 1st downs via defensive penalty than any team since the NFL began tracking the stat. In short, they probably overachieved with some luck and eking past a pretty weak schedule. This year the schedule looks much more difficult.
Best case: Avoiding the sophomore slump with the key offensive players, and Simms keeps improving into an upper tier QB; the defense continues to suffocate the run and stays near the top 10 against the pass; improvement in return and punt coverage units; all the vets on defense still play near their peak levels, as do WRs Galloway and Boston. The incredible luck and favorable whistles continue for the Bucs, and they return to 11 wins and the playoffs.
Worst case: The run defense falls back from 1st to even about 8th; Simms and Williams struggle, and Clayton proves 2004, not 2005, was his fluke season; the age on defense shows and the youthful backups aren’t ready for playoff-caliber intensity. The harder schedule snuffs momentum early and the team faces must-win games in Week 15 at Chicago and Week 17 versus Seattle. The run of blind luck ends; those bad losses to bad teams show up more often than the close wins against decent teams.
Prediction: I really like defenses that can both excel against the run and make plays in the passing game, and the Bucs have that kind of defense. I really like their young skill players on offense, and I believe Simms will emerge as a top 10 QB this season. Any lost tenacity or effectiveness on defense should be compensated by a more explosive offense. The schedule and the way they barely beat so many inferior teams last season is a real concern, though. I have the Buccaneers at 10-6 and another Wild Card berth. But I can easily see this team sliding to 7 or 8 wins, particularly if Atlanta emerges from the ho-hum doldrums. |
