| Authored by Christopher Reina - 19th January, 2009 - 3:40 pm
 The 2009 NFL free agency class is an important one, largely because of the unusual depth at running back. Michael Turner went from San Diego to Atlanta last offseason and helped change the fortunes of that franchise and between Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Matt Cassel, and Darren Sproles, similar impact players are out there for the taking.
Which players at the skilled positions are available and how do they rate out?
* Player, Team (Rank at position in season FIC, Reina Value, 'deserved' cap number)
Quarterbacks
- Matt Cassel, New England Patriots (8th, +1,739%, $9.92M)
It took a few weeks but Cassel became an excellent replacement for the injured Tom Brady, finishing the season 10th in passer rating with a mark of 89.4. Even though he was in a great system for passers with Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to, New England went through running back after running back and the New England line went from brilliant to extremely porous, letting Cassel hit the turf with 47 sacks.
The question of course is how well can Cassel play outside of the Patriots' system, but he has the arm strength, physical mobility and pocket poise to do well just about anywhere, though that chance will likely come in 2010.
- Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals (3rd, +529%, $13.98M)
While any quarterback with sufficient time to throw the ball to two of the best five receivers in the game is going to have an excellent season, Warner was third in the NFL in passer rating and had a solid interception rate of 2.3%. He will turn 38 this June, but he is still in excellent physical shape and doesn't have the miles on his arm of a Brett Favre, who is wearing down specifically in that department.
Warner may not be as valuable and productive in Detroit or San Francisco as he is right now, but he's ideal for Arizona.
- Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (22nd, -21%, $3.96M)
Garcia is about to turn 39 and has had a pass rating over 90.0 in each of his past three seasons. When he left San Francisco for Cleveland back in 2004, he looked to be clearly trending downwards, but that stint with Philadelphia rejuvenated him and he's been good when healthy with the Buccaneers. His future was in flux even before the Jon Gruden firing, so that further muddies the picture.
- Kerry Collins, Tennessee Titans (24th, +16%, $3.33M)
Collins gave the Titans all they needed to have the best record in the NFL, but having a quarterback with an 80.2 passer rating (well above his career mark of 73.8) puts a lot of strain on a team's running game and defense. Fortunately for Collins, Tennessee was excellent in both areas in 2008, but he may not be so lucky again next season or with another team. He has taken a hard line in saying he only wants to start and the Titans will need to figure out what to do with Vince Young.
- J.P. Losman, Buffalo Bills (40th, -35%, $2M)
Losman had a few auditions in 2008 filling in for Trent Edwards and was far from impressive. He finished the season with a 62.3 rating, below his career mark of 75.6. The promising 2006 season in which he was trending upwards now looks a very long ways away and looks like nothing more than a career backup at this point.
- Rex Grossman, Chicago Bears (47th, -46%, $1.63M)
Grossman certainly was never the proper quarterback for Lovie Smith's brand of football and will find a home elsewhere, possibly Minnesota or Detroit. He of course has a big arm, but will he ever make substantial improvements in his accuracy?
Running Back
- Derrick Ward, New York Giants (11th, +249%, $4.55M)
Ward picked an excellent tie to lead the NFL in yards per carry, as he enters free agency. He rushed for 1,025 yards on 182 carries (5.6 average), while also catching 41 balls for an additional 384. Ward had averages of 4.8 yards per rush and 6.9 yards per reception in 2007, filling in for Jacobs early in the season. Ward's second half was far from spectacular if you exclude the insane 215 yards on 15 carries against Carolina, rushing for less than 4.0 yards per carry in Weeks 10-13. The Giants' offensive line deserves a lot credit for Ward's season and the team that signs him should expect more Julius Jones than Michael Turner.
- Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants (22nd, +178%, $3M)
The Giants won't be able to keep both Jacobs and Ward and though I believe Ward had the better season in 2008, I also believe that Jacobs is the more valuable back. His punishing style of running is extremely rare and it wears down opposing defenses in a way that the smaller quick back just can't duplicate. Jacobs also has an excellent track record of rushing efficiently, with averages of 4.4 in 2006, 5.0 in 2007 and 5.0 in 2008. His propensity for injuries makes him unlikely to ever play a full season and he also isn't used much as a receiver, but there aren't too many backs out there that can give his team 5.3 yards (530 total) per 1st & 10 carry.
- Darren Sproles, San Diego Chargers (34th, +58%, $1.91M)
The Sproles free agency is one of the more intriguing ones because of how it will affect LaDainian Tomlinson. Sproles was one of the most explosive backs in the NFL, averaging 5.4 yards per carry while catching 29 balls for 342 yards and one touchdown. He is also a unique threat as a punt returner, but due to his 5-6 frame he is clearly not an ideal every down back and like a Reggie Bush, would be better utilized playing off another running back in a hybrid role.
- Maurice Morris, Seattle Seahawks (49th, +8%, $1.4M)
Morris has been an underrated back for several seasons now and has had two consecutive seasons of better than 4.0 yards per carry with at least 130 attempts. He is 29-years-old already, but I think it is safe to assume he's a young 29 given how he was stuck behind Shaun Alexander for so many years. He's not going to be a featured back for a team that absolutely must run the ball to win, but like a Dominic Rhodes, he's proven to be an elite quality alternate.
- Ricky Williams, Miami Dolphins (35th, +12%, $1.66M)
For Williams to sit out all of 2004 and 2006, play just one game in 2007 and then play a full 16 game schedule in 2008 is one of the biggest surprises of the NFL over the past year. He and Ronnie Brown complemented each other well and he had 659 yards in 160 rushes (4.1 average) with four touchdowns. He also was very serviceable out of the backfield as a receiver, catching 29 balls for 219 yards. He'll be 32 in May, so the clock is truly beginning to tick quicker, but his value in the very short-term still holds.
- J.J. Arrington, Arizona Cardinals (53rd, +72%, $1.3M)
Even though the sample size with limited to just 31 carries, Arrington had an extremely impressive 6.0 yards per carry average. Arrington was given a chance as a rookie with 112 carries, but he managed to average just 3.3 yards and he was then stuck behind Edgerrin James on the Arizona depth chart. That per carry average of 2008 would almost certainly decline with more use, but he appears dynamic enough to keep it above 4.5, which would make him tremendously valuable to any team.
- Correll Buckhalter, Philadelphia Eagles (38th, +56%, $1.57M)
Any back in Marty Mornhinweg's system that backs up Brian Westbrook is going to get a lot of reps and Buckhalter has been excellent when given a chance, averaging 4.5 yards per carry throughout his career and averaging 5.0 in 2007 and 4.9 in 2008. He also is excellent out of the backfield, averaging 10.9 yards per catch.
- Rudi Johnson, Detroit Lions (77th, -27%, $807k)
After quickly trending downwards, the Bengals cut Johnson and he ended up with the Lions. It initially appeared as though he would outplay rookie Kevin Smith, but that hope faded quickly. Johnson was always more of a grinder than a high average back as it was and the 300+ carries he saw in 2004, 2005 and 2006 appear to have triggered the 30-year-old running back syndrome a few months early.
- LaMont Jordan, New England Patriots (71st, +6%, $902k)
The Patriots were 7-1 with Jordan on the field in 2008 and I really don't think that was a coincidence, even though the schedule favored those eight games. He was especially valuable in the Week 2 win at the Jets when he rushed for 62 yards on 11 carries. He rushed for 4.5 yards per carry, far closer to his 2004 high water mark of 5.2 with the Jets, which led to his big signing in Oakland.
- Dominic Rhodes, Indianapolis Colts (29th, +395%, $2.41M)
Given how poorly Joseph Addai played in 2008, Rhodes was clearly crucial for the Colts' last season surge. His 3.5 yards per carry average was below his career mark, but he was a grinder and was very good on 3rd and short and I believe that average has more to do with the Colts' line than him. His foray into free agency after the 2006 season brought him to Oakland, so he has hometown discount written all over him.
Wide Receiver
- T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals (24th, +22%, $4.5M)
Houshmandzadeh is the only real difference maker in this year's wide receiver class though he of course could be joined by a famous Dallas playmaker. He also is all alone in this class because of the Roy Williams to Dallas trade and subsequent extension. Houshmandzadeh had his lowest output over the past five seasons in yards and yards per catch, but much of that has to fall on the Carson Palmer injury. He's an excellent possession receiver and has been the Christina Aguilera to Chad Johnson's Britney Spears.
- Devery Henderson, New Orleans Saints (39th, +53%, $3.06M)
Henderson will likely play football outside of Louisiana for the first time in his life in 2009 as the Saints are in an inflexible situation in regards to their salary cap and he will benefit by being the best downfield threat in free agency. He has a 21.6 yards per reception career mark and he's coming off a career year in receptions (32) and yards (793). He has undoubtedly benefited from Sean Payton and Drew Brees, but his skill set can translate to a lot of passing games.
- Bobby Engram, Seattle Seahawks (60th, -10%, $1.92M)
Tim Ruskell didn't really want Engram back in 2008 to begin with, and he is just about guaranteed to be done in Seattle. Engram eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark for the first time in 2007 by catching 94 balls, but he caught just 47 balls for 489 yards this season.
- Shaun McDonald, Detroit Lions (82nd, -27%, $1.22M)
Without Mike Martz, McDonald went from a 58.9 yard per game receiver in 2007 to 27.7 in 2008. He ended the season on the IR with an ankle injury.
- Jabar Gaffney, New England Patriots (62nd, +43%, $1.84M)
Gafney has been Mario and Luigi's third brother over the past couple seasons in New England, but with 37 catches per season and an average in the 12.4 neighborhood, the former Gator has been an underrated performer. That drop in Indianapolis still lingers, but he's a solid number three guy.
- Brandon Jones, Tennessee Titans (68th, +151%, $1.68M)
Jones increased his reception total significantly, bringing in 41 balls for 449 yards. The Titans are bullish on his promise and will likely re-sign him.
- Amani Toomer, New York Giants (51st, -57%, $2.25M)
Toomer obviously isn't the receiver he was between 1999 and 2003 when he had five straight seasons of over 1,000 yards and a per reception average of at least 14.0, but he is still a threat as a second or third receiver with a contract reduction.
- Chris Reina is the executive editor of RealGM |
