Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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While I don't like to issue grades, as nobody knows how any of the players are going to perform. But I do have gut feelings and opinions of how I feel each team did in the draft. The rest of the league will come in Part II later in the week.
Arizona Cardinals--I love that they stood pat and took Patrick Peterson, who fits their aggressive defensive style and adds a gifted playmaker to a team that needs more. 3rd rounder Rob Housler will help stretch the seam on offense, though this team has a Spinal Tap drummer record of drafting tight ends. The Ryan Williams pick intrigues me, because he's stylistically the same guy as Beanie Wells and he only had one year where he did anything in college. He has incredible potential but with their needs up front and the aged pass rush corps, I would have gone in a different direction.
Sturdivant and Sampson were solid Saturday picks that can help this team, probably faster than Sam Acho, who must change positions and fit into a culture that is Greek to his Texas' Japanese. Not paying any attention to the offensive line could bite them.
Atlanta Falcons--The price tag for Julio Jones was sky-high, and we won't find out if it was worth it until the playoffs. I had more reservations than most about Jones, what with his laundry list of minor injuries and surprising number of drops. He played through the pain, but at some point all that pain diminishes the end product. He and Roddy White are great in theory, and I applaud GM Tom Dimitroff for trying to win the next Super Bowl and not just trying to make the playoffs for the next four years.
Akeem Dent will help their run defense and he complements last year�s #1, Sean Weatherspoon, nicely. I'm not a fan of undersized scatbacks that run in the 4.6s, but Jacquizz Rodgers showed enough at Oregon State that he's worth the shot for where they took him (mid-5th). But their Saturday will be made by Andrew Jackson, who I really liked as a sleeper guard. It makes up for wasting the other 6th/7th round picks.
Baltimore Ravens--I love the Jimmy/Torrey Smith picks. Both will start, and Jimmy Smith was the best before-the-throw cover man in this draft. That's where the Ravens struggled in coverage and he will help immediately. All character concerns are mitigated by the fact that Ray Lewis will slash his throat if he acts a fool.
The real icing for the Ravens is that every other player they drafted, they got at least one round later than the grades I had on the players. Tandon Doss is a steal, a talent that I've never understood why draftniks didn't like more. Chykie Brown has to stay healthy, but if so he's great value as a compensatory 5th. Pernell McPhee is the only pick I question, as I don't see how he fits in their scheme. Tyrod Taylor is an worthwhile project that will have time to develop. Anthony Allen could spell the end of Willis McGahee, which frees up money for upgrades elsewhere. Ozzie Newsome has had some pretty strong drafts, but this one might wind up as one of his best.
Buffalo Bills--I'm not as high on Marcell Dareus as most, and I think he epitomizes why this team was picking so high. I see him as a solid starter but not a dynamic force, which is what you want with the #3 overall pick. Last year when they picked later, they took a bigger risk with CJ Spiller at a position where they had zero need and largely missed. The year before they grossly overdrafted Aaron Maybin at #11, and he won't even make the team this year. Now was not the time for Buddy Nix to get risk-averse, not with the higher-ceiling Nick Fairley, Patrick Peterson, or AJ Green on the board.
It didn't get much better later. Aaron Williams is a player that I really found overrated; he lacks instincts and is slow to react to what he sees, which means that even moving him to safety is fraught with peril. I like Kelvin Sheppard as a player, but in Buffalo he's redundant with the one other LB worth playing that they already have in Paul Posluszny. DaNorris Searcy has some potential even though he's built like a fullback, and Chris Hairston should be the top reserve tackle (at worst) as a rookie. Rather than try to add a speed receiver or value tight end, they opted to burn a pick on UNC RB Johnny White. Much like Sheppard, I like White more than most pundits but I don�t see how he fits here. 7th rounder Justin Rogers is a nice pick if they�re patient, as he needs a year on the practice squad and the weight room.
Carolina Panthers--Obviously this draft will be defined by Cam Newton, who had to be taken as much to win back a faltering fan base as for his huge upside. Time will tell if he was worth the risk. However, their next three picks are as critical for escaping the NFC South cellar as Newton will be over the next couple of years.
Terrell McClain and Sione Fua are both likely to start right away at the defensive tackle spots. While they're not Kris Jenkins and Ma'ake Kemoeatu of years past, they are both physical forces that will largely determine just how quickly the defense improves. I had both guys rated a round lower than the Panthers took them, however. 4th rounder Brandon Hogan has the skills of the second rounder but fell because of maturity issues. If he buys into Ron Rivera, the Panthers got themselves a bargain even though their secondary wasn't a huge area of need...which means if he flops it was a completely wasted opportunity to add a needed tight end or defensive end. Kealoha Pilares should stick as the #4 wideout, and Lawrence Wilson was one of the best coverage LBs in the entire draft class. Lee Ziemba was a very nice late pick, as he's NFL-ready to be a reserve right-sider.
Chicago Bears--Interestingly, I'm not much of a Gabe Carimi guy, but I like his chances in Chicago with an OL coach like Mike Tice and an aggressive OC in Mike Martz. He's all attack, all the time, which suits what those coaches like from their linemen. I'm not sure he'll help much in pass protection, but he was the best run blocker of the tackles in this draft and that's an under-reported need for Chicago.
The best pick was third round safety Chris Conte, who should usurp one of the starting roles right away at the fast-spinning revolving door that has been Chicago's secondary. Conte was a player that coaches liked on film a lot more than scouts did, and he's ideal for a zone team with good LBs. Stephen Paea basically inherits the Tommie Harris role even though he's more of an undersized 1-technique. If anyone can make him work as a second rounder, it's Rod Marinelli, so I'm not too down about it. 5th round QB Nate Enderle was a thrown bone for Martz, who likely wanted him a round or two earlier. James Thomas has a shot as a nickel-package cover LB, which they happen to need.
Regarding the trade snafu with Baltimore, I side with GM Jerry Angelo that they should not give up a pick. I do think that the guy responsible for phoning in the trade should be dressed like a gimp and beaten for five minutes with a whip by Haloti Ngata. Sounds fair to me.
Cincinnati Bengals--I count the Bengals as big winners for draft weekend. They got the #1 player on their board, WR AJ Green, at #4 overall, then picked up the QB they desperately wanted without having to trade up. Mike Brown's patience paid off, and he's wiping the floor with Carson Palmer in their game of chicken, adding Andy Dalton as a QB that is plausibly ready to start right away. By adding the best wideout in the draft, the Bengals sent the message that OchoCinco time is over--a necessary move.
Third rounder Dontay Moch is a project as an outside linebacker, though he has elite speed to mix in early as a situational rusher. The next pick, Clint Boling, could very well start somewhere on the offensive line in 2011; at worst he's the 6th man with an eye on the future. That's one of those 'future needs' picks nipped in the bud, and he was a good value there. Of the rest of the draftees, Korey Lindsey has the best chance to stick. I had a 5th round grade on Lindsey and they got him at the top of the 7th, can't argue with that. They might regret passing on some RBs when they took Robert Sands in the 5th, especially if Cedric Benson leaves town.
Cleveland Browns--Trading backwards from #6 made perfect sense for the rebuilding Browns, as the sum of the deal should help a lot more than Julio Jones could over the next three seasons.
Mike Holmgren apparently had a theme working for the players he did ultimately choose with his first three picks: character is not an issue. Phil Taylor fled Penn State for running afoul of Happy Valley mores, Jabaal Sheard had a suspension for assault at Pitt, and Greg Little missed all of last year for unapologetically breaking NCAA rules. Of the gambles, I like Taylor the best; he's eerily similar to the departed Shaun Rogers, a massive space-eater that can penetrate and dominate when motivated. Sheard strikes me as a better 3-4 OLB than 4-3 DE, even though he has the size to handle playing with a hand in the dirt. He's coming off a recent surgery that had him flagged on many draft boards and went significantly higher than many expected.
Little essentially parlayed about three good games at wide receiver into being a 3rd round pick, largely based on his great size/speed/strength numbers. I know lots of talent evaluators that threw up flags left and right about Little, and an offensive coach from a competing team told me Little was 'the most immature guy we met with'. Obviously Cleveland had a huge need for a legit wideout, but they could have had the higher-rated Torrey Smith or Titus Young a round earlier and maybe still had a crack at Sheard here. Kansas City took the superior (but also troublesome) Jonathan Baldwin with the Atlanta pick when the Browns traded up for Taylor, and there were still several decent values at DT later on. I think Holmgren largely mishandled the value and priorities early on.
Fifth rounder Jordan Cameron has outstanding potential but very little tangible results thus far. They're hoping he is this year's Jimmy Graham, but the odds are good Cameron will not have much of an impact until at least 2012. 6th rounder Buster Skrine falls into that boat as well--a prospect with great upside but a long way to go. I find Owen Marecic a wasted pick, entirely redundant with Peyton Hillis with Montario Hardesty also coming back. Jason Pinkston and Eric Hagg were worthwhile late picks, and I think Pinkston can eventually start at guard if he can stay healthy.
Dallas Cowboys--I think addressing the offensive line was overdue, but Jerry Jones was smart to take the chance on Tyron Smith. He has the best upside of any tackle in this draft, though I do worry he won't ever get there. 4th rounder David Arkin was a solid pick even if most Cowboys fans have never heard of him; he was a freaking monster at his level and guys that dominate in 1-AA usually transition pretty well. Both could start right away, and at worst both should start in 2012.
Bruce Carter was a first-round talent until he got hurt, and Dallas got decent value taking him where they did. I'm not sure where he fits in a 3-4 scheme, but he's a sound football player that happens to be very athletic so my worries aren't real tepid. I really like Josh Thomas, the 5th round corner from Buffalo. I am convinced that had he gone to Ohio State or Florida, Thomas would have been a 2nd round pick. The Cowboys have swung and missed at a lot of DBs lately, but I'm confident Thomas will be a solid hit. I wish I could say the same for the other picks, but I'm not sure any of them--including 3rd rounder Demarco Murray--will make the roster.
Denver Broncos--Denver did a fantastic job restocking a depleted, talent-poor defense. Von Miller immediately upgrades not just the pass rush, but also the short-area coverage. He is the rare prospect that is both elite and considered safe. Rahim Moore and Nate Irving both have some warts, but Coach Fox has had strong success with similar talents before. Irving in particular has a chance to become a strong impact player; he was a top 25 prospect before a terrible car accident.
The two tight end picks, Julius Thomas and Virgil Green, are intriguing picks. Fox never used (nor had) his tight ends as passing game threats, but both are highly athletic receiving-type projects. Green can flat-out fly for a man his size, while Thomas physically has a lot in common with former Bronco great Shannon Sharpe. They're both more long-term projects than immediate help, but if either one hits, Denver has a major weapon.
I'm not a fan of either Oklahoma player they drafted, though Quinton Carter should help the run defense in the short-term. Orlando Franklin brings some surliness to the line, though I'm not sure where he fits best. I would have liked that pick more a round later, and opted for a RB or a corner with higher grades--many of which were still on the board.
Detroit Lions--This is the team I root for, and I'll admit it: their draft has caused me great internal conflict. The stunning selection of Fairley is going to have spectacular results one way or the other. He was clearly the best talent on the board, but the Lions already had the best DL rotation in the league. I am much more pessimistic about it than most, but I do sincerely love and relish the potential dominance.
GM Martin Mayhew stuck to the 'best talent available' strategy with the next two picks, bolstering the offensive firepower with Titus Young and Mikel Leshoure. I love the selection of Young, who fills a glaring need as the #2 receiver and a field-stretcher opposite Calvin Johnson. He plays on an edge that the offense needs as well. I think Leshoure and Jahvid Best together is an excellent RB package, and Detroit did need to add a between-the-tackles back and got the best one in this draft, but it comes at a cost. Leshoure is a great value where they traded to get him, but it comes at the sacrifice of taking a quality linebacker like Justin Houston or Nate Irving or Martez Wilson or Kelvin Sheppard. The Lions only have one LB on the roster worthy of starting (Deandre Levy), and passing on a solid prospect in favor of a RB that will likely get no more than a handful of touches per game strikes me as a mistake. Doug Hogue is special teams fodder, nothing more, and I would have preferred Greg Jones as a more NFL-ready linebacker even though Hogue is significantly faster.
Unlike most, I did not see corner as a pressing need for Detroit, and further upgrading the pass rush helps mitigate that need. I do believe the team sorely needs a safety to play with Louis Delmas, but they did not opt to dip into the shallow talent pool there.
Green Bay Packers--..And the rich get richer. Derek Sherrod is the long-term solution at LT that they desperately needed, and he fits their blocking scheme well. I like Randall Cobb as the utility weapon they need; he can play in the slot, he can play 3rd down back, he can run the Wildcat, he can return punts and kicks. He is in the vein of Percy Harvin or Desean Jackson, though not as explosive as either. Alex Green is a great fit at RB that should help right away. He runs downhill with decisiveness and real burst, and he's an excellent, accomplished receiver. Davon House and DJ Williams are both great value picks that I had projected one round earlier than the Packers got them. On a stacked roster like this they'll likely be game-day inactives, but as Green Bay proved last year you can never have too much depth. I like Ricky Elmore in the 6th and humbly predict he winds up with more career sacks than Arizona teammate Brooks Reed, a second-round reach that GM Ted Thompson wisely side-stepped. Having said that, he might not even make this team, nor will the other late picks.
Houston Texans--GM Rick Smith smartly opted to bolster his pathetic defense, and I'm on board with most of his choices. After striking out on trading up to get the coveted Patrick Peterson, Smith took JJ Watt at #11 and immediately made his overall line much better. Watt won't be a prodigious sack artist, but he can crash the pocket while providing excellent stoutness against the run.
The second round pick, Brooks Reed, is one of my least favorite picks in the draft. He's too stiff and lacking in variety of pass rush moves to make the kind of splash the Texans are demanding. I had a 4th round grade on him and I know of several teams that did (or even lower) as well. I love his motor, and he's probably better than anything else they've got to play with Connor Barwin, but I had several other rushers rated higher that were still on the board.
I thought Brandon Harris in the 3rd is strong value, and his tackling helps fill an underappreciated void. He'll be the nickel back right away, at worst, and he�s solid in man coverage. In an interesting decision, Smith took Rock Carmichael in the next round. Carmichael and Harris couldn't be more stylistically different, which begs the question--does new DC Wade Phillips have any idea what type of coverage he wants to deploy? An optimist would say he's covered his bases nicely, but the reality is they almost certainly cannot play together. There's already a glut of superfluous corners on this roster, and Smith added to it without properly addressing the glaring hole at safety. Shiloh Keo will get a shot, but he's much more likely to have an impact on special teams and lacks the range to keep Peyton Manning or even new division rivals Blaine Gabbert or Jake Locker honest.
The selection of quarterback TJ Yates was not well-received here in Houston, but I don't mind the selection. He comes from a similar offense and played extremely well as 2010 progressed under very trying circumstances at North Carolina. Derek Newton and Mr. Irrelevant Cheta Ozougwu are both long-term developmental projects with decent potential. I like taking local boy Ozougwu with the final pick, as it builds more of a rooting interest from a team that is still finding its fan base.
Indianapolis Colts--You can list the Colts amongst the biggest winners in this draft. Anthony Castonzo is a miracle, a gift from the Testicles the Roman God of Football. He can start at one tackle spot right away and is perfect for their needs. No other tackle is as ready to handle protecting Peyton Manning, but Castonzo is no slouch as a run blocker either. Second rounder Ben Ijalana is probably the more natural left tackle, though he might not be ready in 2011. Regardless, he's an excellent value where Team Polian drafted him. I really like Drake Nevis adding quickness and intensity to their defensive front, though he won't help their undersized issues. Their late picks, Delone Carter and Chris Rucker, were both very good value picks. Carter could push for immediate playing time, and Rucker has similar characteristics to Marlin Jackson, whom they've missed lately. They needed this kind of draft to stay in the AFC title mix.
