Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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All but four teams have played four games, which means it?s time for the quarter pole awards.
MVP: Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets. Even in the humbling opener The Sanchize didn?t turn the ball over. Since then he?s been consistently fantastic and the Jets are a lot more legit in my eyes because of his vastly improved play. He edges out Arian Foster and Michael Vick.
Offensive Player of the Year: Arian Foster, RB, Texans. Not the same as MVP because this is more geared towards outstanding individual performance and not value to team. The league?s leading rusher shows no signs of slowing down, and he?s faster than advertised.
Defensive Player of the Year: Lance Briggs, LB, Bears. Urlacher gets more headlines but no player has meant more to a successful defense than Briggs. His forced fumble in the Detroit game and his great pursuit in the Green Bay game almost singlehandedly kept the Bears undefeated. Beats out Troy Polamalu, Shaun Phillips, and Clay Matthews.
Coach of the Year: Mike Tomlin, Steelers. Most Steeler faithful would have happily taken a 2-2 record at this point, yet Tomlin got Pittsburgh within 45 seconds of 4-0 largely with a 4th string QB. Special mention to Todd Haley, coach of the only undefeated team standing, the surprising Kansas City Chiefs, and Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo.
Offensive Rookie: Sam Bradford, QB, Rams. emerging already as a savvy field general and has the Rams in 1st place. Beats out Lions RB Jahvid Best based on win total.
Defensive Rookie: Earl Thomas, S, Seahawks. Three INTs to go with his four third-down tackles that prevented 1st downs. Beats out Ndamukong Suh and Nate Allen in what has otherwise been a very underwhelming rookie class.
Best Story: I think the Randy Moss trade trumps the Michael Vick/Philly QB saga.
Biggest Positive Surprise: Lots of worthy candidates, but Darren McFadden?s maturity into a great runner in Oakland takes my cake. Apologies to Peyton Hillis and Michael Vick.
Biggest Negative Surprise: Most would choose the 49ers, but I am more stunned by the largely awful play of their division rivals, the Arizona Cardinals. There is way too much talent there to lay giant eggs the way they are.
Last Week: 7-7, making the season forecast a fair 33-29.
Minnesota (14) at NY Jets (1): Boy did ESPN luck out with the timing of the Randy Moss deal! Minnesota also lucks out with the timing, as Moss gets another crack at torching Revis Island and Brett Favre gets a downfield target to open up his arsenal.
Having said that, I believe the key to this one is which team runs the ball more effectively. LaDainian Tomlinson has been fantastic thus far, providing balance for The Sanchize and showing more giddyup than he has in years. With Shonn Greene looking like he?s remembering how to run with power, the Jets have a nice 1-2 punch to slug away at the tough Minnesota run defense. Setting up 2nd and 5 or less is critical to beating the Vikings D.
Getting those sorts of manageable 2nd and 3rd downs is also an imperative for the Minnesota offense. Adrian Peterson has been his dynamic self and will have fresh legs coming off the bye. The Vikings line has not been good overall, but the tackles both run block well and that goes right at the biggest weakness of the Jets defense: off-tackle runs. Percy Harvin could have a very nice game coming out of the slot, and Moss? presence will keep the safeties from cheating up on him. Order is restored in the Minny offense, and that means trouble for opposing defenses, even one as staunch as New York?s.
I know the game is in New York under the bright lights, but I really like a veteran Minnesota team coming off a bye with a shiny new toy to pull off the surprise. Vikings 24, Jets 21.
Kansas City (11) at Indianapolis (9): Does anyone else ever get the impression that the NFL league offices have put a moratorium on any announcers criticizing Peyton Manning during Colts games? Last week was a great example. Manning misread Jacksonville?s coverage twice on one drive, where it was clear Reggie Wayne made the right adjustment and Manning missed the throw. Yet, the highly compensated talking heads squarely blamed Wayne. No credit to the defense, which clearly knows Manning?s tricks by now, and no consideration that just maybe Mr. Perfect made an error. I don?t mean to demean Manning?s greatness, because I still think he?s the best regular-season QB in my lifetime, but the guy is in fact a human capable of human error. Granted his are much more infrequent than pretty much anyone who has ever played QB, but several times this year I?ve seen Manning be just off the mark or have to double clutch and find an alternate receiver because he didn?t get his initial coverage read right. But I suspect you won?t ever hear anything like that on any of the major networks, which is too bad because I believe there is a story brewing about the impending relative decline of Master Manning.
Having said all that, I really like the Colts here. Early byes are momentum killers for surprise early season achievers like the Chiefs, and hitting the road to face such a potent attack doesn?t help matters. And then there?s the natural harmonious balance of the football universe. Surely the gods can?t have the lowly Chiefs at 4-0 and the mighty Colts fall to 2-3! Surely the officials will use their magical powers to ensure that doesn?t happen at Lucas Oil Stadium! Sorry KC, but the sun doesn?t shine on you inside that dome. Colts 29, Chiefs 20.
NY Giants (17) at Houston (8): Houston?s bottom-ranked defense gets a huge boost with the return of LB Brian Cushing. The reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year is a dynamic impact player that brings toughness, range, and nastiness to the defense. What I really like is that the team didn?t alter what they do schematically in his absence; the other guys will be doing the same things around him, and Cushing is a monumental upgrade that will make all those guys better. He has been incredibly focused and his trademark intensity is apparently not just a by-product of steroid rage. I look for him to unleash four weeks of pent-up aggression on the Giants, who have major OL issues up the gut. Houston?s young secondary is still vulnerable, but inserting Troy Nolan at free safety should help. It can?t hurt. I believe the G-Men shot their load on Monday night and won?t be able to erect such stiffness on D this week. The Texans roll at home, 31-20.
Tampa Bay (24) at Cincinnati (16): The Bengals are snarling mad after getting beat by the rival Browns, a game where they finally threw the ball for big yardage but struggled to crack the end zone. Tampa really missed suspended safety Tanard Jackson in their pre-bye loss, and I expect Carson Palmer will try to exploit the problem repeatedly in this one. Cincy is much better at home, and their strong overall defense should pose problems for a Tampa offense averaging 3.4 yards per carry and struggling to protect QB Josh Freeman. The Bucs are an improved unit, but the early bye week probably does a young team more harm than good. The last time they took the field they got spanked hard by the Steelers, and they?ve had no chance to break that negative momentum before heading to a very tough place to play. Vegas says Cincy by 7, and that seems just right. Bengals 22, Bucs 15.
Denver (20) at Baltimore (2): On the surface it might seem like Denver has no shot here. But I actually think the Broncos utter ineptitude at running the ball sets them up nicely for facing the Ravens fearsome defense. Baltimore tends to pin its collective ears back when they know the pass is coming, and that leaves them vulnerable to screens, intermediate quick crosses and delay routes, which are staples of the Denver offense. Kyle Orton is seeing the field as well as any QB right now, and Demaryius Thomas is emerging as the physically imposing receiver they hoped he?d be. Denver takes care of the ball, something Baltimore does not do; the Ravens are dead last in turnover margin, and Joe Flacco remains the AFC?s lowest-rated passer largely because he turns the ball over too much. Denver?s defense doesn?t do much well, but they can handle one-dimensional offenses fairly well. Here?s a little secret you won?t hear on the Ravens? hype machine network, better known as ESPN: without Ray Rice at full speed, Baltimore can?t run the ball. I get the sense the Ravens are flying a little too high after the dramatic win over Pittsburgh, and Denver is the right sort of team to clip Icarus? wings. Denver upsets Baltimore 30-26.
Tennessee (23) at Dallas (13): Dallas comes off their bye week a more focused, sharper team--if you believe the Dallas beat writers and daily team observers. I do trust those voices, and I think this is the portion of the schedule where the Cowboys start to make some real noise. Few teams defend the run as consistently as the Cowboys, and the run stuffing ability of their corners is a major asset against Chris Johnson. Vince Young is struggling to make connections with his receivers, and that task won?t be any easier with a rested, hungry DeMarcus Ware chasing him all over the field. Young?s last visit to Dallas saw the Cowboys trounce the Titans 45-14 in Young?s first start, and there?s not a lot of evidence that Young or these Titans are any better than that team four seasons ago. Dallas bombards the Titans 30-17.
Chicago (15) at Carolina (30): It looks like Jay Cutler is not physically well enough to start after being pistol-whipped, body-slammed (insert action verb of violent, merciless contact here) by the Giants. That makes way for Todd Collins, who also got rocked in the Sunday nighter (note: I typed ?Sinday? three times. Maybe I should find a church?). Collins? mental well-being has got to be iffy; three of the nine sacks Cutler absorbed came on max protection plays where the Giants only rushed 6. That means two extra Bears ?blockers? couldn?t hold back the bum rush. That cannot inspire confidence in Collins as he takes 7 yard drops from under center waiting for his underwhelming receivers to get open on 16 to 22 yard route trees. Carolina doesn?t have the top-end aggressiveness of the Giants front seven, but they?re an underrated unit that just made life miserable for Drew Brees behind the Saints? vastly superior line. And if you think Mike Martz will scale back or dramatically alter his offense with a backup in the game, you don?t know him very well.
Chicago gets a break in facing a Carolina team that really struggles to score. Jimmy Clausen gets another start, this one without Steve Smith, the only viable NFL receiver on the roster. Even with Smith, Clausen ranks ahead of only Derek Anderson in QB rating, and DA just got benched for a UDFA rookie. Now his receiving corps is rookie David Gettis, rookie Brandon Lafell, rookie converted QB Armanti Edwards, and Jets castoff David Clowney. Stud RT Jeff Otah is still gimpy and it has hurt the Panthers run game, enough that they probably don?t have the ability to break too many off against the still-strong Bears D. Carolina is last in the league in scoring, and what got lost in the Sunday Night Pummeling was how well the Chicago defense played for most of the Giants game. I expect a low-scoring, hard-hitting contest. If Cutler were playing I?d pick the Bears here, but I?m forecasting the Panthers to get their inaugural win. Carolina 16, Chicago 13.
New Orleans (7) at Arizona (28): The defending Super Bowl champs are reeling a bit, but Arizona almost certainly provides the cure to anything that ails them. Derek Anderson has been benched in favor of undrafted rookie Max Hall from BYU, the Cards OL is not playing well, and the Arizona secondary is wildly inconsistent. Much like the deposed Anderson, the Cardinals themselves are either great or dreadful for no apparent rhyme or reason. It makes them very difficult to forecast, but New Orleans is good enough to win in Arizona even if the home team brings its ?A? game. I don?t expect they will, but don?t sell Max Hall short before you see him--especially against a Saints D that is down its top 3 safeties and nickel corner. New Orleans 20, Arizona 12.
Green Bay (10) at Washington (12): Green Bay?s defense will be without thee starters from a week ago, when Detroit found little resistance while playing backups at QB and RB. Washington will be without Clinton Portis, but they found a spark in RB Ryan Torain last week, and his hard-charging style is ideally suited to attack the weak Packers middle. Donovan McNabb is savvy enough to withstand the awesomeness of Clay Matthews, and I like the Redskins secondary to make enough plays to hold off Aaron Rodgers & Co. Green Bay?s running game woes are just as much a function of a lack of talent up front as it is the loss of Ryan Grant, and that lack of balance is a real problem when facing a defense with a talented back end like Washington. I like how the Skins found a rhythmic pace to their game in Philly, and I think that flows on in this one. Washington 27, Green Bay 24.
San Diego (5) at Oakland (27): The Raiders have botched chances to win each of the last two weeks. Teams that come up agonizingly short like that typically go in one of two directions. Either they tighten up the loose ends and pour their frustration into sharpening their execution and team spirit, or they wallow in their own self-pity and lose confidence in their ability to win. Put these Raiders squarely in the latter column until proven otherwise. San Diego?s defense is quietly playing some excellent football, and they should overwhelm Oakland?s iffy O-line. I like San Diego big in this one, even on the road. Chargers 36, Raiders 10.
Philadelphia (21) at San Francisco (31): There are a number of ways to break this one down, but I kept coming back to my initial gut thought on this one. San Francisco has too much talent to go 0-5, and Philly sans Vick and McCoy is the perfect wounded animal for them to take down. Of course that means the old adage of a wounded animal being dangerous comes into play, but I like how the Niners have played better against better teams, and Philly (barely) qualifies. Frank Gore runs wild in San Francisco?s first win of the season, a 23-17 upset of the Eagles.
Atlanta (6) at Cleveland (25): I like the battle of wills in this matchup. The Browns are coming off their first win and are one of the more physical teams in the league. Peyton Hillis is very effective pounding the ball between the tackles, and Josh Cribbs is emerging as a legit wide receiver. They?ve led in every game, and last week the defense finally bent without breaking. The Falcons come off a miracle win over the 49ers, pulling out a victory in a week where they did not have their best effort. Matt Ryan should have a huge day against a mistake-prone Browns secondary, but this game will be won and lost in the red zone. Cleveland is actually a little better statistically, but Atlanta gets there more frequently on offense and less frequently on defense. That?s just enough of a difference for the road team to get the win. Cleveland loses yet another close game, but it won?t be from lack of effort or defensive intensity. Atlanta 20, Cleveland 16.
Jacksonville (22) at Buffalo (32): Letdown Alert! Letdown Alert! Jacksonville pulled off an improbable upset of the Colts last week, a tightly executed effort that followed two humiliating defeats. The Jaguars are incredibly bipolar, but one of the big keys to bringing out the apathetic, toothless version is to get a big play early. Buffalo has a home run hitter in CJ Spiller, and the Bills have very strong special teams. They also have a secondary that can make plays, though they haven?t shown a lot of that yet. I know it seems crazy that a team that just knocked off the Colts with an efficient offense and a hard-hitting defense won?t be the pick against a winless team that could have lost to the Jets by 50 if New York didn?t call off the dogs, but Vegas agrees: as of Thursday morning this game is a pick ?em at most sports books. Trust the bookies and their lack of confidence in the Jaguars here. Buffalo 24, Jacksonville 20.
St. Louis (19) at Detroit (29): The Lions get a healthy shot in the arm with the return of RB Jahvid Best and WR Nate Burleson. One year ago the Rams bagged their only win against the Lions courtesy of a fake field goal, and the Lions have not forgotten that humiliation. I don?t discredit the Rams (see this week?s $.10) but this is another case where Detroit has simply played too well to be 0-5, and they don?t carry themselves like a winless team. The Lions expect to win every game, and Shaun Hill has played well enough in relief of Matt Stafford that they finally break the seal at home. Bet the over on this one. Lions 31, Rams 28.
Bye Week: Seattle (26), Pittsburgh (3), Miami (18), New England (4)
Drinking in the Dorm Room Games: Last week: 4-1 for the 5th week in a row.
Miami 28, Florida State 20
Michigan State 39, Michigan 33
Alabama 27, South Carolina 25
Florida 20, LSU 17
Arkansas 36, Texas A&M 27 in Arlington, with this writer and several NFL scouts in attendance. Check back next week for scouting scuttlebutt!
