Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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Last Week: 8-5 , taking the overall season forecast to 39-21.
A couple of quick thoughts on the coaching changes this week in Oakland and St. Louis:
--Raiders owner Al Davis is taking a lot of flack for how he browbeat deposed Lane Kiffin in his press conference. I agree it was harsh, but Davis is savvy enough and has gone through enough successful legal battles that there is most certainly fire behind all that smoke. The bigger issue is that no reputable coach will step anywhere near Davis? beloved Raiders after how he has handled his coaches lately. New coach Tom Cable is a great OL coach, but it?s asking a lot of him to take over the entire team.
--St. Louis might be an even bigger mess. With the ownership issue unresolved and the stark lack of talented players in their prime years (typically seasons 4-8), there is very little immediate hope. Scott Linehan absolutely had to go; one insider I spoke with told me the situation with Linehan and his Rams players was as bad as Atlanta under Bobby Petrino. The decisions to bench Marc Bulger and cut Fakhir Brown were more straws than needed to break all the camels in the Sahara. The team should improve under Jim Haslett, but any improvement is relative to how putrid they were under the overmatched Linehan.
Warm Sunshine Games
Seattle (19) at NY Giants (1): The Seahawks top my list of most disappointing teams, and this is their chance to get the nay-saying monkeys off their back. Losing your top six wide receivers will do that. They get #1 WR Deion Branch and #2 WR Bobby Engram back for this one, while the Giants will be without their #1, Plaxico Burress. New York teams are notorious for laying giant eggs coming out of bye weeks; Coach Tom Coughlin?s record following a bye is just 1-3 with the Giants, and the G-Men have lost seven of their last nine coming off a bye. The Seahawks are also coming off a bye, and they have won three of their last four in that situation. I really like Seattle?s pass defense and its ability to confuse and pressure the opponent, and Eli Manning is still prone to obliging despite his solid progress. Seattle pulls the east coast surprise and beats the Giants 20-17.
Washington (5) at Philadelphia (9): Washington has notched a 3-1 record almost exclusively on their ability to dominate the turnover battle; they have just one giveaway, and rookie safety Chris Horton has forced four TOs in two games. But the Eagles have an impressive TO ratio of their own (+3), and Skins QB Jason Campbell struggled against the Giants D, which is based on the Eagles pressure 4-3 scheme. The Philly D isn?t as powerful as the Giants, but it?s good enough to win this game. Philly goes at least +2 in the turnover battle and wins the NFC East war over Washington, 24-14.
Tennessee (2) at Baltimore (7): Joe Flacco must be in shock. His first two starts came against moribund Cincinnati and Cleveland, where he was sacked just once and pressured on just 14 of his 48 attempts. Then came Monday night in Pittsburgh, where he was pounded for 5 sacks and 14 recorded pressures in 31 attempts. It gets no easier with Tennessee coming to town, as they have recorded 15 sacks (second in the league) and picked off eight passes (tied for 1st). The Ravens defense is just as ferocious, looking very much like its old self as led by a rejuvenated Ray Lewis. The Titans will need to get good production from rookie RB Chris Johnson, as his blazing speed around the edge represents the best way to attack the defense--as long as he runs north and south, which isn?t always the case. This game should boil down to which QB manages the game better and which special teams unit can establish better field position. Both checks go to Tennessee, and they will win 17-13.
Fair Skies Games
Tampa Bay (10) at Denver (11): The Broncos got exposed last week by a veteran QB leading a patient, run-based attack that kept Cutler & Co. off the field and gashed big gain after big gain right up the gut. Denver, say hello to Brian Griese, Earnest Graham, and the most physical OL in the NFL. The Broncos will try to counter with the Brandon Marshall/Ronde Barber matchup, as Barber has made some uncharacteristic gaffes in coverage against far less imposing passing attacks. They?re likely to get at least one big play from Champ Bailey, as Griese has a penchant for God-awful INTs that send Chuckie Gruden looking for his shepherd?s hook. Will that be enough? Fascinatingly difficult game to forecast; the sims in my mind have it split 50/50. Tough to see Tampa outscoring Denver in Denver without Joey Galloway, so that tilts the scales to the Broncos. Denver 34, Tampa Bay 30.
Buffalo (3) at Arizona (16): Pretty much all the forecast models indicate a strong showing for the Bills, with their impressive 4th quarter performances, balanced offense, and strong special teams. But I refer to one of Dr. Isaac?s weather axioms here. The forecast calls for a 90% chance of lousy weather in Phoenix, but when I stick my head out the window, there isn?t a cloud in the desert sky. Arizona 27, Buffalo 24.
Pittsburgh (12) at Jacksonville (15): The busiest guy in Pittsburgh is the Steelers' team doctor, and his docket keeps getting fuller. Pittsburgh is without its top-two RBs, two starting defensive linemen, and starting LG headed into Jacksonville, which is getting healthier. Expect C Brad Meester to make his season debut, and he will help jumpstart the sputtering rushing attack. The Jaguars have won the last four meetings, mainly by being more smashmouth than the smashmouth Steelers. These Steelers can?t smash anything but their own mouths this season, and the Jaguars aren?t apt to give them the game in the manner or Baltimore or Cleveland. Jacksonville 20, Pittsburgh 10.
Atlanta (20) at Green Bay (18): Atlanta has been brutal on the road, failing to score a TD in their two roadies thus far. What concerns me more is their almost comedic inability to get QB pressure from anyone but Jon Abraham. It?s thisclose to being time to call Jamaal Anderson a bust just 20 games into his career. The 8th overall pick in 2007 for his pass rushing ability, Anderson is still looking for his first career sack, and in 4 games this season he has recorded just 4 QB pressures and 2 QB hits. Packers DE Aaron Kampman averages that in roughly each half of every game. It will be interesting to see how well the Packers can stop RB Michael Turner without DT Cullen Jenkins, CB Al Harris, and perhaps LB AJ Hawk, who is iffy with a bad groin. That?s an injury that gives new meaning to the word ?suffering?. Packers CB Charles Woodson is playing great despite a broken toe, and I see the Packers able to pressure Matt Ryan enough that the downfield routes to Roddy White won?t be available. Packers 27, Falcons 15.
Cool and Breezy Games
San Diego (8) at Miami (26): Miami drew perhaps the most ill-timed bye week in NFL history, having to sit out a week after upsetting the Patriots. A repeat upset is unlikely here, as the Chargers have a strong running attack they won?t abandon and a QB who can pick apart the weak Dolphins coverage while handling the pressure. The opportunistic Chargers D has to be salivating at pea-shooting QB Chad Pennington trying to throw to young WRs prone to alligator arms. They also got time to prepare for the Ronnie Brown single-wing offensive sets, a brilliant coaching move by Tony Sparano. Good week to play the Chargers as your fantasy D, despite what you?ve seen thus far. Miami can keep it close if they control the clock and stay positive in turnovers, but neither is likely. San Diego 39, Miami 13.
Indianapolis (22) at Houston (28): The Colts have simply dominated the series, winning 11 of the 12 meetings, often in high-scoring fashion. And with the way these two defenses are playing, expect another shootout. Key to the game: Can Texans rookie RB Steve Slaton make enough plays to keep the Texans close into the 2nd half? Slaton has been impressive and he is a ?must play? for you weekly roster fantasy geeks. For once this might be a ground-game shootout; these defenses combine to give up over 340 yards per game. Of course, just when you think that, you look and see Peyton Manning?s career average stats against the Texans: 25-for-36, 317 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, QB rating of 122.2. Oh yeah, they?ve only sacked him 8 times in those 12 games. Those numbers might actually go up this year, as the Texans have just 3 sacks in 3 games and lost safety CC Brown for the season. Colts 36, Texans 32.
Minnesota (21) at New Orleans (14): The Gus Frerotte experiment isn?t going well for the Vikings, who are perilously close to finding the proverbial tank despite lofty preseason expectations. But part of the problem that isn?t getting much attention is the surprising vulnerability to surrendering big running plays by the heretofore vaunted defensive front. While they do only give up a stout 2.9 yards per carry, they have given up seven runs of more than 10 yards, ranking 20th in that category. Their red zone defense has been lousy as well, giving up seven TDs in 11 possessions. New Orleans found their pass rush in Week 4, and the emergence of rookie CB Tracy Porter bodes well for their leaky pass coverage. Not that they need much of that this week...New Orleans rolls to a 30-15 MNF victory.
Typhoon Warning Games
Kansas City (29) at Carolina (4): Kudos to Coach Herm Edwards for coming up with a way to play to win the game last week, riding Larry Johnson and a power running game to a victory over previously undefeated Denver. You could see the body language of the young, embattled offensive line morph into a more confident, aggressive unit. That bodes well as this team grows, but it?s probably not going to matter much against the Panthers. Carolina is quietly humming along quite nicely, with an efficient offense that can strike from anywhere with a variety of weapons. They also have a very active, talented defense that can slow down Johnson. Panthers roll 32-13.
Chicago (17) at Detroit (30): The mood around newly Millen-free Allen Park (Lions HQ) is that of the freshly divorced middle-aged man driving to the local watering hole in his new Corvette, ready to unleash his newfound vigor on the unsuspecting populous. Funny thing about that guy, though: he usually spends his first few outings learning the hard way that conquests aren?t easy, not even with a Corvette and fancy new clothes. He might get lucky and score with a desperate wobbler who can?t help herself, though, and that is precisely the situation the Lions hope they are in with the Bears. No Charles Tillman and a wounded Tommie Harris makes the Bears D vulnerable, and so long as they stay away from the Old Style the Lions have the firepower to take advantage. The forecast is for Detroit to break out with a 33-16 win, but a reversal of that score is just as likely.
Cincinnati (31) at Dallas (6): Worth watching for a couple of reasons. First is how well the Cowboys handle the latest bout of TO vapidity and a tough loss, fostered in part by real shaky coaching. The Cincy secondary has played fairly well the last two weeks, so a TO-centric gameplan probably hurts their ability to win. Second is the Bengals are reloaded with deviant criminals Chris Henry and Cedric Benson. Those two significantly raise the level of overall talent, but at what cost to a franchise still apparently smarting from not ever having signed Leonard Little or Darryl Henley. The duality extends to the prediction, as the status of Carson Palmer is uncertain. If Palmer plays, the Bengals have a puncher?s chance but will lose 29-20; no Palmer means Dallas rolls 36-13.
New England (13) at San Francisco (24): This is one of those games where you have to set aside the Xs and Os and take a look at the bigger picture. Surely you don?t expect a Bill Belichick-coached team to come off a bye week after a humiliating loss and not unleash the hounds of blood and rank? Mike Martz offenses have often been sitting ducks for those hounds; he?s just 1-5 against Belichick as either a head coach or offensive coordinator, and this is probably the worst OL he?s ever fielded. New England rolls 34-20.
Bye Week: Cleveland (27), St. Louis (32), Oakland (25), NY Jets (23)
Drinking in the Dorm Room Games
I must have sampled some bad tequila last week, picking just one of the four games correctly. The challenge now is figuring out whether last week?s run of upsets will continue as it did in 2007, or if it was just a fluke snowstorm in Scottsdale. Having actually been in one of those rare occurrences, I?m leaning towards the latter...but not this week.
USC 36, Oregon 24. Lightning doesn?t strike twice in a row, certainly not in Los Angeles.
Auburn 20, Vanderbilt 6. Surprising Vandy plays a legit team and suffers the consequences.
Kansas State 48, Texas Tech 44. I?ll believe in the Red Raiders when they start winning games like these.
Ohio State 27, Wisconsin 16. This is not the same OSU team that got bombarded by USC. Getting Beanie Wells back and playing phenom Terrelle Pryor full-time at QB makes them the class of the Big 10, and this game is their shot across the bow.
Western Michigan 26, Ohio 24. My Bobcats finally won a game last week, but this one continues the Year of the Agonizing Loss.
Catch me talking football on the Papa Joe Chevalier show at papajoetalk.com, Mondays at 6:25 Eastern.
