2013: 7-9, third in NFC East

2014 line: +/- 8 wins

Why the Over

The New York Giants have lost some of the bite on defense lately, but they are still strong on that side of the ball. The difference is that the strength has moved from the line to the back end.

This secondary is pretty good, featuring one of the most underrated cornerback groups in the league. Prince Amukamara is not a shutdown #1, but he’s a reliable cover man with good instincts. The former first rounder plays well to his help and is a sturdy tackler to prevent yards after the catch. Adding Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Walter Thurmond reloads the position with proven talent and more playmaking ability. Thurmond comes over from Seattle and brings that Seahawks physical mentality with him.

They lack star wattage but have very sound depth. Trumaine McBride played quite well in coverage a year ago, good enough that he’d start in many places. Here he’s no more than sharing the nickel role. Jayron Hosley will miss the first four weeks with a league suspension, but he too would slide up at least one spot on the depth chart of most other teams once he returns.

Safety is still in good hands with Antrell Rolle and Stevie Brown. They’ll miss playmaker Will Hill, a troubled talent who was released after his third drug-related suspension, but getting Brown back at full speed will help mitigate the loss. Brown missed last season, however, so his health is not a given. At least Rolle continues to churn out consistent good-not-great play. Cooper Taylor offered strong potential as the third safety, though he will be on the shelf for some time with a toe issue.

The line should be improved, and that improvement will come on the backs of two second-year talents. Tackle Johnathan Hankins and end Damontre Moore both played less than 200 snaps as rookies, but will be counted on to handle a much bigger workload in their second years. Hankins stepped right in and emerged as the best run stuffer on the team. He uses his bulk to clog holes well, and his quickness and nose for the ball are both exemplary for a 325-pound behemoth.

Moore is the third end behind Jason Pierre-Paul and Matthias Kiwanuka, but he figures to play a lot as a pass rusher over Kiwanuka, who is coming off a miserable season. Moore is a limited athlete but a very smart football player who thrives on relentless effort and judiciously using his burst. Playing across from JPP, still one of the most fearsome pass rushers in the league, is an optimal situation for the Texas A&M product. A healthy JPP adds a lot more snarl to this front, and he’s looked like his old self in preseason.

Honestly I don’t know what to make of Kiwanuka. He was wildly ineffective last year, playing soft against the run and looking tentative as a pass rusher. Both those negatives have not reared their ugly heads in preseason, but it’s hard to trust in the former first-rounder.

The Giants will miss Linval Joseph inside, but rookie Jay Bromley has outplayed expectations and earned major buzz from camp. Veterans Mike Patterson and Cullen Jenkins give the unit solid depth and makes it very difficult to run between the tackles.

Linebacker is a question centered on how you feel about oft-injured Jon Beason. He’s a stud in the middle, though he’s missed the entire offseason with a foot injury. The Giants have clearly defined roles for the LBs, and Beason’s ability to snuff out plays between the numbers is critical to that plan. He’s a downhill striker with excellent instincts and quickness. Jacquian Williams is a coverage specialist, and a good one. He can match up with opposing tight ends and does an excellent job of carrying his mark down the field to the safeties. Rookie Devon Kennard has impressed all summer and offers more muscle than Spencer Paysinger as the outside strongman.

On offense, the line cannot be any worse. Adding Weston Richburg in the second round was a brilliant move. He’s the center of the future, though he might play guard early on. The Colorado State metalhead (when I talked with him at the Senior Bowl we chatted about Lamb of God and Mastodon) is technically sound and nasty to play against. He will be an above-average starter for years.

Will Beatty, one of two holdover starters, is sporadically effective at left tackle. It’s odd that he’s better at run blocking than pass protection, as it’s his lack of base strength that makes him highly vulnerable on the edge to power rushers. He’s due for a bounceback season after struggling a year ago; in 2012 he was much better. Justin Pugh, the other holdover, acquitted himself well at right tackle as a rookie. He played with more confidence as his first year progressed, and his tenacity serves him well.

Victor Cruz is still a lethal weapon at receiver, as any fantasy football player can tell you. Even though he didn’t turn in as many highlight-reel long runs after the catch last year, he’s a dynamic player with the ball in his trusty hands. He gives Eli Manning a reliable threat and can create problems for opposing defenses.

Cruz is a natural fit for the new passing scheme of offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo. The Giants are switching to a (hopefully) more efficient, precise and shorter-range scheme that will get players in space more readily. This should help the rebuilt line too, as Manning will get the ball out quicker. This also plays to the strengths of shifty Jerrel Jernigan, who can line up in the slot or the backfield. He goes down on first contact pretty easily, so getting him in space and using him more on quick-hitters and jet sweeps builds his value. Keep an eye on rookie widebody Corey Washington, who has been a summer sensation and will push perennially overrated Mario Manningham off the roster.

I’m still a firm Tom Coughlin advocate as coach. The coordinator changes should offer fresh perspective and fine-tune an engine that was running on fumes. The players respect and trust Coughlin, who has proven he can maximize limited talent and lift his team in times of adversity.

Why the Under

This was one of the worst offenses in the NFL last season, and I’m not sure they’re going to be any better this year. Being very different doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be improved.

Part of the problem is that Eli Manning appears to be what he is. That’s an odd way to phrase something that I could write about 2,500 words on here, but I’m a firm believer that the Eli of the last two years is the Manning going forward. He’s thrown 42 INTs with a completion rate of 58% in those seasons, neither of which is good.

Perhaps the only way to get Manning back to being acceptable would be to push him from within, but the Giants’ cupboard is bare behind him. Curtis Painter is lucky to be on a NFL roster, and probably won’t make the final cutdown. Ryan Nassib, a fourth round pick in 2013, has had some strong moments in preseason, but they’ve come late in games against players who won’t be in the league in the regular season.

It would help if Manning had a better receiving corps, but the Giants’ overall talent level at wideout and tight end has fallen off a cliff recently. Other than Cruz, this cast sorely lacks anyone who really threatens the defense. Rueben Randle could make a solid possession receiver, but he has no deep speed or elusiveness after the catch. Jernigan offers the versatility highlighted above, but he’s a limited-use weapon with serious durability issues.

I love Odell Beckham Jr. as the first-round pick, but he’s missed all of camp with an injury and figures to be playing catchup all season. The team desperately needed him to step right in as a major contributor, but he might not catch more than 25 passes as a rookie. Still, that’s more productivity than any of the tight ends appear to offer.

The starting TE will either be Kellen Davis or Larry Donnell. Both caught exactly three passes a year ago, Davis doing so in Seattle after years of failing to meet expectations in Chicago. Daniel Fells is a mediocre blocking specialist. This might be the weakest positional unit on any NFL roster this season.

The offensive line overhaul was long overdue, and it’s a necessary evil to suffer with the growing pains of change. There is talent present that could form a solid line, but it’s not likely to happen this year. The guard situation is unsettled, to put it nicely. Eric Herman’s PED suspension hurts here, because it forces a lesser player like John Jerry or Brandon Mosley into the starting lineup. The fact that stiff James Brewer makes the final roster, and he will, tells you that the depth here remains awful thin.

Running back is an unfortunate mess. David Wilson’s forced retirement due to a neck injury robs the G-men of their expected feature back and legit playmaker. Now they must rely on Rashad Jennings and rookie Andre Williams. Both have some skills but are one-note runners, unlike the versatile weapon that Wilson provided. Jennings does offer the ability to catch out of the backfield. Fullback Henry Hynoski is a good one, but he won’t touch the ball more than 10 times.

The defense could be very good, but it’s relying on a lot of variables. Beason must stay healthy. JPP must be his dominant old self. Kiwanuka must bounce back. Brown must prove he’s fully recovered. I really do like the talent, but it’s premature to say this unit will be able to hold up over the course of a long season.

Forecast

It’s tough to like the “over” here, as eight wins seems like a Herculean task for what appears to be one of the worst offenses the NFL has seen in recent times. Yet you write this team off at your peril. Manning can still dial up the 400-yard, 4 TD game a couple times a year, and the defense is capable of providing wins. They held three opponents to 7 points or less as they won 7 of the final 10 games, and they’re now deeper and healthier.

The schedule features a whole lot of 50/50 games, contests that either team could realistically win. However, the young offensive line is going to be tested hard against fearsome defensive fronts in Detroit, Houston, Tennessee and pretty much the entire NFC West, which the Giants draw as non-division opponents. Those are bad matchups, and it starts with the Monday night opener in Detroit. Given their inevitable splits with all three NFC East teams, New York has to win five of 10 outside the division.

That’s asking too much of this offense. Barring a surprise renaissance from the erratic Manning, the Giants are going to finish near the bottom in scoring offense and giveaways. That’s a tough recipe for success. These Giants finish 7-9 once again.