2013: 4-12, last in AFC North

2014 line: +/- 6.5 wins

Why the Over

If the Cleveland Browns are to top even five wins, it’s on the back of the defense. This is a deep and talented unit with solid players across the board and no glaring weaknesses, a top 10 unit last season that might be even better in 2014.

The front line is one of the best in football, though it doesn’t get the national attention. Desmond Bryant, Billy Winn, Athyba Rubin, Phil Taylor, John Hughes and Ishmaa’ily Kitchen make up a versatile, tough, physical and very deep D-line. Even undrafted rookies Calvin Barnett and Jacobbi McDaniel have shown legit NFL ability in the preseason, yet they’re not likely to make the team. While the unit lacks a true star, it’s got solid starts and fantastic backups no matter how the depth chart shakes out.

The linebackers behind them aren’t too shabby either. Even after parting ways with inside backer and team leader D’Qwell Jackson, they still have appreciable talent. Outside guys Barkevious Mingo and Paul Kruger are a solid tandem. Mingo has so much speed and ability to flatten around the edge. The second-year LSU product is poised for a breakout campaign a year after being a top 10 pick. Mingo should push 10 sacks this year after bagging five as a rookie.

Kruger was a disappointment with just 4.5 sacks, though he wasn’t used as aggressively as anticipated under deposed defensive coordinator Ray Horton. He’s a more physical rusher who can also crash inside against the run. It’s a mistake to write him off, though expectations should be lowered a bit. Fortunately the team has two solid reserves in Jabaal Sheard and Justin Staples who can rotate in and generate some pass rush and chaos off the edge. Sheard actually led the Browns with 5.5 sacks and did so in just 13 games.

Rookie Christian Kirksey could be a real find in replacing Jackson. The third-round pick from Iowa is a very fluid athlete with an outstanding football IQ. I like that he’s playing behind a line that can keep him clean even though it’s a 3-man front. It’s his coverage skills that will stand out the most in 2014. With veteran Karlos Dansby next to him and mentoring him, he could blossom quickly.

Dansby remains effective. The free agent from Arizona was one of Pro Football Focus’ top ILBs last year, and it’s from a similar defensive scheme. He’s also an oddball personality that can loosen up the locker room and be a real asset for new head coach Mike Pettine. The inside duo has the ability to shut down the short and intermediate passing games over the middle, a staple of many NFL offenses. This tandem is an upgrade over Jackson and Craig Robertson, who now slides into a reserve capacity.

The secondary has a chance to be very good. Joe Haden isn’t as awesome as he thinks he is, but the confident corner is a legit Pro Bowl talent. He’s a playmaking corner who plays like a shutdown cover man…at times. More consistency would be nice, but Haden is a viable #1 corner in a league where not many of those exist anymore.

In swapping in Donte Whitner for T.J. Ward, the Browns traded a little bit of range for more reliability. “Hitner” also brings a winning mentality and real attitude to his hometown defense. He’s one of the best short-range safeties in the league and a menace to any receiver crossing the middle. Tashaun Gipson emerged as a playmaking safety a year ago, picking off 5 passes. His cover skills aren’t great, but to that end the team added (hopefully) better corner play to mitigate his lack of deep range.

I’m admittedly not a big fan of first-round pick Justin Gilbert, the speedy corner from Oklahoma State. He’s got outstanding measurable and showed great improvement in his final season in Stillwater. He could wind up being a very good #2 corner, and I do appreciate that the Browns aren’t relying on him to travel all over the field mirroring the opponent’s top wideout.

Between Buster Skrine, Isaiah Trufant, Leon McFadden and rookie Pierre Desir, the Browns do have potential to have depth at the position. Skrine has been a disappointment but still is young enough to have potential in the slot. Desir, the team’s 4^th round pick, probably needs a year to get up to NFL speed but could wind up being better than Gilbert in the long run. I also like the potential of reserve safety Jordan Poyer, though it’s time for him to start showing more of it.

Offensively, the line features two elite talents in left tackle Joe Thomas and center Alex Mack. Both are no worse than the 2^nd-best player in the league at their respective positions. Thomas deserves mention as one of the top 5 overall talents in the NFL today. Second round pick Joel Bitonio looks like a plug-and-play fixture at left guard between them.

Jordan Cameron has developed into a very good receiving threat at tight end. He’s got an outstanding catch radius and his route running continues to improve. His line of 80-917-7 could actually increase now that he appears to be the primary target. With superb talent but drug addicted Josh Gordon’s availability very much in questions, Cameron should challenge Jimmy Graham for the most catches and yards among TEs.

Gordon is the big variable. He’s one of the most physically gifted receivers in the league, a downfield speedster with great strength and strong hands. Alas, he’s facing a suspension of at least 8 games for repeatedly violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy. It could be a full season. If he is available for even half a season it greatly augments Cleveland’s chances to compete for as many as 8 wins, but that’s an unknown at this point.

The special teams are solid, with return man Travis Benjamin an explosive threat. Punter Spencer Lanning is one of the league’s more consistent punters and can hang the ball high. 

Why the Under

Go ahead, name one viable NFL wide receiver on the roster other than Josh Gordon. When the first name that comes to your lips is Andrew Hawkins, you know there’s a problem.

Sure, Miles Austin and Nate Burleson are on the roster. Those are recognizable names, but injuries and age have robbed both of much of their skills. They combined for 63 catches and one touchdown as part of significantly better passing offenses in Dallas and Detroit, respectively. Austin does have some potential to top 50 receptions, but it’s no safe bet. Burleson is an awesome locker room presence, but that can only do so much.

Hawkins, a free agent defection from rival Cincinnati, is one of the quickest and niftiest players in the league. Unfortunately his incredible YouTube work has never really translated into greatness on the field. The 5’7” slot man has just 86 receptions and 4 TDs in his three seasons. He’s a nice player, but over his head as the #2 option.

Of course, with Gordon’s looming suspension Hawkins could very well be the de facto No. 1 wideout. Pair that with the quarterback chaos, and this Cleveland passing offense sure looks like the worst in the NFL. In a league where everything is geared towards high-octane, precision passing attacks, the Browns are going in the opposite direction.

Ah yes, the quarterbacks. I covered Brian Hoyer’s relative blandness earlier this summer. Nothing I’ve seen in two underwhelming preseason efforts has changed my mind; he’s a suitable backup, nothing more. Then there’s this Johnny Football guy…

I want to believe in Johnny Manziel, I really do. I think his unconventional, improvisational style can work in the NFL, and his arm and eyes are both underrated. I think his general contempt for traditional football structure and common sense can galvanize a team around him. But at some point he’s got to start approaching a middle ground with the firmly entrenched ways and means of life in the NFL instead of flipping it the bird, or drinking champagne on an inflatable one.

The macro problem is that this is a franchise ravaged by instability, irresponsibility and chaos. They’ve had more coaches in the last four years than the rival Steelers have had in 40. This latest edition marks the seventh major overhaul since the Browns returned to the field in 1999.

The constant schematic changes, personnel philosophies and draft strategies have taken a major toll. Even though there is real talent on this team, it doesn’t have any cohesion or continuity.

Now the embattled owner (thanks to his scrupulous business practices with Flying J) turns the reins over to a rookie head coach, an offensive coordinator noted for being unsuccessful, and a cult of personality rookie quarterback already being either lionized or demonized by fans and fellow NFL players. It’s a recipe for disaster.

I have concerns about other spots as well. I don’t trust Billy Cundiff as the kicker, a valuable position for a team that figures to wind up in several lower-scoring duels. I’m not crazy about the right side of the offensive line, though I do think Bitonio will be decent enough as a rookie. Ben Tate is too injury-prone to handle being the lead back, and visionless rookie Terrence West doesn’t move my needle much. The safety and inside linebacker depth isn’t great, but that’s getting nitpicky.

Forecast

The Browns opened last season 3-2 and have since lost 10 of 11, including the final 7 last year. The bigger question might not even be how many games they win on the season, but when their losing streak will end. They will be decided underdogs in their first five games (@PIT, NO, BAL, @TEN, PIT) before they get to what appears to be some winnable games before a brutal final stretch.

It’s a shame a talented defense and a rookie head coach I genuinely like are destined to suffer through one of the most publicized losing campaigns in recent memory. A bad offense is going to be even worse with the incessant quarterback controversy and a schedule which offers several strong defenses. The nonstop cycling of divergent leadership regimes, all with their own styles and peculiarities, have left this team a complete mess.

The good news is that they have two first-round picks next year, and between their own pick and Buffalo’s pick (an absolute steal by GM Ray Farmer) they could very well own two top 5 picks. They really aren’t that far from being a decent team, they just need some stability and cohesion. It won’t happen in ’14. These Browns go 3-13. They’re a strong “under” bet.