RealGM Analysis
2012 Record: 4-12
Point Differential: -65
Turnover Margin: -16
Sack Differential: +5
Offense
2012 Ranks
Rushing: 18th
Passing: 21st
3rd Down: 9th
Scoring: 16th
QB: Matthew Stafford is a bit of a conundrum. The No. 1 overall pick in 2009 missed more than half of his first two seasons, throwing more INTs than TDs and leaving many wondering if he could ever become a viable starter. In his next two seasons, Stafford has thrown for over 10,000 yards and 60 touchdowns while leading the Lions to a rare playoff berth. That earned him a recent contract extension to keep Stafford firmly under center for the foreseeable future.
The gaudy passing numbers don’t lie, but they don’t tell the whole Stafford story either. While he owns the 6th and 7th most single season yardage outputs in NFL history, he accomplished those thanks to the 5th and 1st rated amount of attempts in a season. He threw just 20 touchdowns on 727 attempts last year, a terrible ratio. Stafford’s completion percentage fell off almost five full points from his breakout 2011 campaign. No small part of that was due to lazy mechanics and poor throwing form, a breakdown of fundamentals that drives Lions fans crazy and validates his numerous critics that accuse Stafford of putting up empty numbers.
There is no questioning Stafford’s arm talent, and he has positively answered concerns about his durability. For Matthew Stafford--and the Lions--to take the next step requires a more consistent effort and a more prominent leadership position from the young QB. The half-assed sidearm lobs and slew-footed chucks must stop. It would certainly help if Stafford started games better; last season he was 4-for-11 on four different occasions before heating up, and it didn’t really seem to bother him. An increased sense of urgency and ownership for the fate of the team would be very nice to see in Stafford. Starting games slowly causes offensive coordinator Scott Linehan to bail early on the run and creates the sort of freakish imbalance in the offense that the Lions are desperate to avoid once again. Early camp returns are quite positive, but it needs to show when the games count. For fantasy purposes, it wouldn’t surprise anyone if Stafford once again finishes at or near the top in attempts, but the Lions would love to keep that number under 650. It would be a real surprise if Stafford doesn’t hit at least 30 TDs and 4500 yards.
Shaun Hill returns as the trusted backup. He might be the best backup that isn’t an aspiring starter in the entire NFL. Hill is poised, accurate, and can run the whole offense. Hill doesn’t have Stafford’s rifle arm, but he can zip the 18-yard out just fine. He was demonstrably better than Alex Smith during their time together with San Francisco. After spending his rookie season learning the ropes, weak-armed Kellen Moore faces competition from former Browns backup Thaddeus Lewis for the 3rd QB spot. Moore has perhaps the weakest arm on a healthy QB I’ve ever seen, but he is quite precise and makes good decisions with the ball. Lewis is more of a mobile threat and showed some promise in his lone start in Week 17 against the Steelers. Moore should be favored to keep the job but he will have to earn it.
RB: When the Lions made their playoff run in 2011, a significant portion of that team’s success was the presence of Jahvid Best as a versatile speed back. Unfortunately concussion issues have halted Best’s career, and the offense has not recovered. Enter Reggie Bush, fresh from two redemptive years with the Miami Dolphins where he averaged 4.6 yards per carry and 7.5 yards per catch. Bush offers a viable home run threat and great elusiveness and speed in space, two things the Lions haven’t had since Best got hurt. If Bush can produce even 90 percent of his Miami averages, this offense has added a new dimension that greatly augments all the other pieces. He’s been better than expected in camp, and the expectations were pretty high.
Joique Bell emerged as a solid No. 2 back in his first season of action in Detroit. Bell is a bit of an odd athlete, a prototypical third down back skillset in the body of a power back. He’s got great hands and nifty footwork for a bigger guy. Bell was very good at converting third downs. What he doesn’t do is break big runs, as he lacks speed and tends to give defenders a big target with his shoulders. He’s not a traditional pile mover inside either. With the flashier Bush in front of him, Bell provides a little more contrast and that could help him sustain close to five yards per carry on about 150 reps.
One of the more hidden questions of Lions' camp is what happens with Mikel Leshoure. Early this summer I stated that last year’s No. 1 back is no lock to make the team. At that time everyone thought I was crazy, but entering the Lions first preseason game Leshoure is barely clinging to the backup slot. Other than being highly effective in the red zone a year ago, Leshoure disappointed in his opportunity as the feature back. Leshoure struggles to make the first tackler miss and just the same amount of explosive runs than Bell despite having almost triple the carries. Because of his off-field issues that remain a scarlet letter on a franchise desperately trying to shed the miscreant behavior, Leshoure really needs to give the Lions a reason to keep him. It’s hard to fathom him not making the final 53, but he holds little value as a third stringer. Rookie 6th round pick Theo Riddick is a more natural receiver and has better initial quickness than both Leshoure and Bell. Undrafted rookie Steven Miller is hoping his blazing jets impress enough to stick on the practice squad, provided he doesn’t earn the job as a return man. One of the guys he’ll have to beat out there is Riddick. Free agent signee Montell Owens fills the de facto fullback and special teams role for a team that almost never uses more than one back. Owens will get some opportunity to prove himself as a short yardage back as well.
WR/TE: There are not enough positive adjectives to describe Calvin Johnson. He comes off one of the greatest individual seasons in NFL history, an absolutely astonishing display that saw Megatron blow away Jerry Rice’s single-season yardage record. Johnson just missed the magical 2,000 yard mark on his league-leading 122 receptions. About the only thing that Johnson didn’t do better than anyone was get into the end zone. Somehow he managed just five touchdowns, the product of being tackled inside the five yard line at least six times during the season. The only other possible criticism is his ball security, as Johnson did fumble three times and dropped a handful of easy ones where he allowed the defender to extricate the ball from his hands. Still, there is no better receiver in the game today and the Lions will rely heavily on him once again.
A healthy return by Nate Burleson is critical to giving the passing game some semblance of balance. Burleson thrives at plays across the middle and in the short seam. Those routes are valuable because having a viable threat there keeps safety help away from Johnson and creates more opportunities outside for the backs and tight ends. Burleson is widely respected in the locker room and is a consummate professional receiver. He’s not a deep threat or overly elusive after the catch, but simply getting open and making the catch represents major progress from what the Lions had without him last year. Burleson is also a very good run blocker, a quality that is being emphasized by new WR coach Tim Lappano.
The primary slot receiver, Ryan Broyles, is also coming off injury. His recovery is less certain than Burleson’s, as Broyles has torn an ACL in consecutive years one on each leg. If healthy, Broyles has an innate ability to create separation with sharp footwork, excellent body control, and changing speeds. His hands are outstanding; Broyles is the NCAA’s all-time leader in receptions for a reason. He has looked healthy in early camp, but durability will remain a major question until he proves otherwise.
The Lions are looking for a bigger target to work outside opposite Megatron. That guy was supposed to be Titus Young, currently imprisoned on a bizarre and sad barrage of charges after torpedoing his Lions career. His late season replacement last year, Kris Durham, did little to engender any confidence. Durham lacks speed and suddenness, and his hands and route running both proved unreliable. A late addition to camp, former Jet Chaz Schilens has the physical attributes desired but has injury issues of his own. Skinny Patrick Edwards is a speedy outside receiver in a slot back’s body (he’s 5’9” and 175), and he went on IR from the practice squad in his rookie year. Guys with his slender frame don’t have much of a chance as a downfield weapon. Sixth round pick Corey Fuller has long speed to burn and blocks well, but his inexperience and rawness means he isn’t likely to make much of an impact before 2014.
One factor which should help the new tackles in pass protection: Michael Williams. The big 6th round draft pick figures to inherit Reiff’s old role of extra tackle even though Williams is a tight end by trade. With a (hopefully) healthy Brandon Pettigrew, the Lions have two solid in-line blocking options at tight end. There could be more extensive use of heavy 2-TE sets, and they both can catch the ball. Williams thrives at stoning the initial rush and then slipping out into the open intermediate range, and his sheer length forces Wide-9 rushers even wider. Every split second counts for Matt Stafford.
OL: This unit will look a lot different than it has for the past few seasons. After four years of having the same five starters from left to right, the Lions will feature three new starters in 2013. Left tackle Jeff Backus retired, right tackle Gosder Cherilus chased the free agent cash to the Colts, and right guard Stephen Peterman was (mercifully) let go.
Riley Reiff will be starting at one of the tackle spots. This much is a given. What is unknown is which side Reiff will play, and who will start opposite him as the other bookend tackle. Reiff began the offseason at left tackle, and the reason why the Lions drafted him in the first round of the 2012 draft was to play left tackle. Reiff got his one rookie start at left tackle in relief of the injured Backus against the Texans in the Thanksgiving Day game, and he handled his business against Defensive Player of the Year JJ Watt as well as could be expected. Most of Reiff’s rookie work came on the right side as an extra tackle, taking advantage of his brute force run blocking acumen. He thrived in this role, which is why conventional wisdom believed Reiff would stick on the right side. On the right side run blocking is more desired and Reiff would face fewer speedy edge rushers. If he flops at left tackle, and that’s unlikely, he could shift to the right side. The Lions are boldly confident that Reiff will be an upgrade over Backus and will fare similarly to Andrew Whitworth of the Bengals, another run blocking stud who wound up emerging as an above-average left tackle despite being widely projected on the right side.
This fosters a camp battle for the starting right tackle spot between veterans Corey Hilliard and Jason Fox. Give Fox the early edge. The Lions have shown almost irrational patience with Fox, a former 4th round pick who has missed almost all of his three seasons with various injuries. Coach Schwartz has repeatedly praised Fox’s ability, and the team signed him to his restricted free agent tender. Cap strapped teams don’t fork out $1.34M for a player they don’t believe can play. Consider this Fox’s last chance to capitalize on the opportunity in Detroit. If he can’t handle it or gets hurt yet again, enter Corey Hilliard. He also signed an offseason deal with the Lions, a 2 yr./$2.53M deal despite not playing a down last year. Hilliard does have some in-game experience at right tackle for Detroit, having started five games between 2010 and 2011 and not flopping. He has the ideal build and demeanor to play right tackle, though the team is likely more comfortable keeping him as the top reserve swing tackle.
Rob Sims and Larry Warford figure to be the starting left and right guards, respectively. Sims has been solid since coming in a trade from Seattle. Last season he did not surrender a sack, and he reliably gives Stafford a place to step up and throw. Sims is not a mauling run blocker but can create some movement. Warford, the team’s 3rd round pick, has a chance to be a very good one. He is a legit road grader with great lower body power and leg drive. Issues with weight fluctuation--he topped 335 late in his Kentucky career and his play suffered--caused him to drop in the draft, but Warford is very close to as skilled as top 10 talents Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack. Warford must adjust to the quickness and power of the pro game, and that might not happen overnight. But long-term he should represent an immediate upgrade over Peterman, whose play dramatically declined and was a real detriment in pass protection.
Warford is going to have to earn the starting role, and early camp results from veterans Jake Scott and Dylan Gandy indicate it’s a fierce fight. Gandy has impressed in first team reps enough that his roster spot is secure; if he doesn’t win the starting job over Warford he figures to serve as the top interior reserve thanks to his experience playing center. Scott comes from Tennessee, where Coach Schwartz knew him. That comfort level with the coaches gives Scott a chance, and he has impressed enough in camp to get the bulk of the 1st team reps. His best days are clearly behind him, but late-career hiccups of unexpected improvement are not at all unprecedented amongst linemen.
Center Dominic Raiola took a pay cut to play one more year with the team, and the coaches find his leadership invaluable. He will enter the year as the starter, but if he struggles the team will not hesitate to replace him with either Rodney Austin or Gandy. Austin was the team’s prized futures contract and there is great optimism in Allen Park that he can take over for Raiola in time. He and Gandy look to be the interior reserves, though Austin might have to pass some time on the practice squad once again. Two undrafted rookie tackles, LaAdrian Waddle and Austin Holtz, are battling for the same practice squad spot as a developmental project. The early edge goes to Holtz, who is more technically sound, though Waddle offers more brute power. Veteran Leroy Harris could very well be released by the time I finish typing this sentence.
Defense
2012 Ranks
Rushing: 23rd
Passing: 24th
3rd Down: 8th
Scoring: 27th
DL: In Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley, the Lions have a potentially outstanding tandem of young defensive tackles. If both are healthy and have their heads on straight, there might not be a better 1-2 punch inside in football. Suh burst onto the scene with an outstanding rookie season in 2010. His brute strength and ability to quickly defeat blockers made him a sensation. Suh hasn’t quite returned to those lofty heights, and the warts have shown more in the last two seasons. His inability to keep his composure, his frustrating blindness to wham and trap blocks, and his close-but-no-cigar pass rushing have kept Suh from ascending to the next level that most everyone expected. The Lions would be happy to get the Suh of his rookie year back. Fairley outplayed Suh when both were on the field last year. The only real question left for Fairley is durability. He showed up lighter and lither than in recent years and those close to Fairley indicate he is more focused and dedicated than ever before. Nick Fairley is poised for a monster season. He and Suh together should threaten 20 sacks. It would be even better if they played the run on the way to the passer a little more frequently, as well as avoiding so many stupid penalties.
The Lions opted for a massive makeover at defensive end. Kyle VandenBosch and Cliff Avril are gone, leaving both starting spots up for grabs. One of those spots is almost certain to go to free agent Jason Jones, late of the Seahawks. Jones thrived in his time under Schwartz in Tennessee. He is bigger than most 4-3 ends at 280+ pounds but has enough quickness to take the edge. His best role is as an inside nickel rusher, and he’ll get looks in that formation in relief of Suh or Fairley at times. First round pick Ezekiel “Ziggy” Ansah will play a great deal in a pass rushing role. Ansah is one of the most impressive natural athlete’s I’ve ever scouted. He stands out on the football field the same way LeBron James does as an athlete on the basketball court. His length, power, quickness, and closing burst are all elite. Teaching Ansah how to integrate all those tools into being a football player is a work in progress, as the Ghana native is a football newcomer. My expectations for Ansah are that he will not do a lot on about 90 percent of the plays, but he’ll make two or three plays every week that transforms every announcer into Gus Johnson excitability mode. Because the Lions are looking for more big plays and impact plays, they’ll live with that as Ansah learns on the job.
Former Bears DT/DE Israel Idonije is also in the mix for significant playing time. Like Jones, Idonije is at his best playing base end and sliding inside as a nickel rusher. The addition here is double edged. Idonije was the second rated defender for Chicago last year according to Pro Football Focus, and he is also a widely respected locker room and off-field presence. Izzy is a self-made player who developed into a strong starter and pass rusher over time, and his ability to mentor fellow African Ansah should prove invaluable. Look for the two of them to rotate in and out.
Willie Young and Ronnell Lewis are the only holdovers from last year’s disappointing cast. No player disappointed more than Young, who was unable to remain productive through a nasty finger injury. He failed to record a sack and was generally invisible after showing real promise towards the end of 2011. Young is now battling with Idonije and 4th round pick Devin Taylor for that 4th spot in the rotation. Taylor has much better size and strength, though Young has an explosiveness off the line that should (should!) give him an edge. If Taylor continues to impress in camp, and he’s been talked up quite a bit by the coaches and beat reporters, he could very well push Young deeper down the depth chart. Taylor offers outstanding length at a legit 6’7”, and he moves quite lithely for a man his size. At South Carolina he struggled with keeping his pads low and being on the attack all the time. If he clicks with DL coach Kris Kocurek and pass rush specialist Jim Washburn, and the early returns are strong, the Lions scored a real find. A good gauge for Detroit’s success is how quickly Ansah and Taylor can get on the field together, which would give the Lions one of the most physically imposing pair of ends in the league, bracketing the dynamic duo inside.
Depth inside could be a real problem if either Fairley or Suh are out of action. Former Jaguar CJ Mosley will fill Sammie Lee Hill’s role as the third tackle. Like Hill, Mosley is stouter and more run responsible. But Hill was a more natural pass rusher and a more physical force. Jason Jones and Idonije would likely slide inside for extended looks before any of the rest of the depth--Jimmy Saddler-McQueen, Ogemdi Nwagbuo, and prodigal Andre Fluellen--would get a shot. Those three are likely fighting for one roster spot. Ronnell Lewis, a 4th round pick in 2012, will have to make a major positive impression in preseason in order to stick for a second season. His tweener OLB/DE skills and an offseason arrest leave Lewis precariously on the roster bubble.
LB: Stephen Tulloch is back in the middle and DeAndre Levy returns on the right side. I like the continuity, but the teams needs more from them than mop-up tackles too far from the line of scrimmage. Defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham is under direct orders to come up with more big plays, but last year the three starting linebackers (Justin Durant was the 3rd) combined for one sack, one forced fumble, zero interceptions, zero fumble recoveries, and 12 passes defended. Those numbers are pathetic and help explain why a team that was good on both 1st and 3rd downs allowed so many points and so many opportunities. Tulloch missed too many tackles, often overrunning to the point of attack and unable to control his body to stay in position. The team would love him to make more north/south impact vs. the run, as well as getting more active in coverage.
Levy and Durant were both free agents after the season and it’s interesting that the Lions opted to keep Levy over Durant, who led the team in solo tackles last year and was much more positionally responsible against the run. Levy is stouter and better in coverage, and that apparently won out. As with Tulloch, Levy must make more impact plays and be in better position to facilitate others making impact plays. Levy showed some of that potential as a rookie in 2010, though he played in the middle a lot that year.
There is a camp battle to replace Durant between Ashlee Palmer and Tahir Whitehead. Palmer has the clear edge to move up from being primarily a special teams contributor. He has gained functional bulk without sacrificing his quickness, though he’s still on the smaller side. The coaches like his work ethic and instincts, and Palmer acquitted himself pretty well in limited duty a year ago. He won’t match Durant’s tackle productivity but should fare better in man coverage. Whitehead figures to move into Palmer’s old role as the top reserve outside backer. The 5th round pick in 2012 has excellent agility and litheness but needs better eye discipline and patience. At just 228 pounds he really lacks the bulk to be real effective against the run, especially in a division where two opponents will start RBs that are north of 210 pounds.
Second-year Travis Lewis has sewn up the reserve middle backer job. He’s smaller than Whitehead at about 225 pounds but has an excellent nose for the ball. Lewis has quick eyes and closes with some authority. He has picked up the defense very well and the coaches trust him to play either in the middle or on the strong side in a reserve role. Veteran Cory Greenwood has the edge on young Carmen Messina for the other active LB role, which is almost exclusively utilized for special teams duty. The lack of size and playmaking ability punctuate this group, but it’s hard to fathom less production than a year ago.
Secondary: Long the thorn in Jim Schwartz’s Lions paw, this unit appears to have improved with the additions of safety Glover Quin and corner Darius Slay. A return to near-full health by fellow safety Louis Delmas and nickel corner Bill Bentley would certainly aid things as well.
The buzzword early in the offseason was “impact”. The coaches clearly realize that the secondary needs to create more turnovers and make more impact against the run. The presumptive starting foursome has definite potential to do that. Quin and Delmas as safety behind Chris Houston and Slay, who will be starting sooner than later, all offer speed and ball skills. Houston’s play steadily fell off as the losing season progressed. He needs to bounce back and get his hands on more balls in the air. Houston’s anticipation of the ball must improve; too often he seemed surprised that the ball was already in the receiver’s hands even though Houston was in decent position in coverage. Slay is rawer technically but compensates with exceptional closing speed. He plays with a swagger that is a welcome addition, even if it will make him look foolish at times.
Bentley also brings a lot of swagger in the slot. He has one of the best fight/size of dog ratios in the league and yaps constantly. Injuries and downright terrible hand technique made his rookie 2012 campaign a disappointment. He must clean up his tendency to grab and hold. If he can do that, Bentley should be very good in the slot. His run defense is strong and he anticipates routes well. Fellow ’12 draftee Jonte Green performed better than expected when thrust into a starting role late, and he could start ahead of Slay once again. Green has excellent straight line speed and showed a quick learning curve under fire. He also showed a willingness to get physical. Yet to illustrate how much improved this unit could be, Green could very well be the 5th corner this year after starting a good chunk of last season. It also shows how fluid and unproven this unit is that Green could still start. Veteran Ron Bartell was once an above-average corner in St. Louis before a bad neck injury. He played well in the finale a year ago and the coaches love his veteran rudder and reliability. At minimum, the depth chart this year gets sorted by ability and not desperation like it has been since the onset of the Millen Era, a time of which Lions fans treat like Russian textbooks handle the Stalin years. Young journeymen DeQuan Menzie and DJ Johnson are trying to parlay one last opportunity into a job as the 6th CB, along with Ross Weaver. Johnson has the most natural ability of the trio.
Depth at safety should be a lot better too. Importing Quin to start plays a major factor here. Quin played a hybrid LB/S role for the Texans and was excellent within the first 15 yards in both coverage and run support. He lacks real quality over-the-top help range, however. Quin’s ability to match up with tight ends and fill the inside gaps vs. the run are going to be a major upgrade. Delmas is best viewed as a wild card at this point, as chronic knee injuries have made him unreliable at best. Before the injuries hit hard, Delmas was widely viewed as an ascending star, a playmaking free safety and vivacious team leader. Now the hope is that he can play half a game at a time, primarily in passing situations. The knees are creaky enough that he already skips every other training camp session and is unlikely to practice at all once the season starts. When Delmas is a no-go, Don Carey gets the nod. Carey played surprisingly well late in the season in place of Delmas, showing decent range and very good field awareness. He is a former corner trying hard to shed his journeyman label, and he’s a good fit as the third safety here. Carey is not a playmaker by any stretch of the imagination though. The remaining safety spots are subject to a big camp battle. Amari Spievey is on his last chance to make a strong impression after years of middling play and frequent injuries. Like Carey he is a former corner, but he’s not as instinctive or fluid in space. Veteran Chris Hope is hoping that his Titans connection with Schwartz pays off in one last go around. I’m not so hopeful for him, as he seldom played last year in Atlanta and wasn’t impressive when he did see the field. John Wendling successfully fought off Ricardo Silva to remain as the special teams specialist safety, but his roster spot is far from secure. Tyrell Johnson is more aggressive and a better tackler, though his propensity for getting hopelessly lost in space in coverage is alarming. Undrafted rookie Martavius Neloms impressed enough in OTAs to merit a practice squad spot in 2013, and he could play his way up if he gets his hands on some balls in preseason.
Special Teams: Last year these units singlehandedly cost the Lions two games, and major changes have resulted. Everyone from last year--kicker Jason Hanson, punter Nick Harris, return man Stefan Logan, designated ST cover man Kassim Osgood, and ST Coordinator Danny Crossman--is gone, and only quality long snapper Don Muhlbach returns. Camp battles will settle every spot.
The most intriguing camp battle is for kicker. Veteran David Akers is trying to milk one more year out of his 38-year-old leg, a leg that failed him miserably in San Francisco a year ago. Akers has a long and highly accurate career as a clutch kicker, but last year he was downright awful for a very good team. He will have to fend off Harvard Rugland, better known as Kickalicious. The YouTube trick kick sensation has never played a down of organized football before, but he has legit leg talent. Akers will win the job if all things are equal, and through the first week of camp that is the case. I’m openly and unabashedly rooting for Rugland primarily because Akers is a short-term stopgap at best, while Rugland could be the kicker for the next decade if he can handle the pressure of kicking against fearsome rushes. Plus I really want a Lions Kickalicious jersey…
Detroit drafted punter Sam Martin from Appalachian State in the 6th round, and teams don’t draft punters and not give them the job very often. It’s hard to imagine him being a downgrade Harris, who allowed too many returnable kicks. Harris was good at keeping the ball out of the end zone, something Martin would be wise to emulate. Martin should also handle the kickoff duties if Akers wins the place kicker job. Blake Clingan is his camp competition, and he has a legit NFL leg too. If not here, then somewhere, just like Rugland.
The return units can only improve. Only the Bears started with worse average field position off kickoffs than the Lions. The return gigs are wide open with many candidates, including Reggie Bush, Patrick Edwards, Corey Fuller, Joique Bell, and Steven Miller. It’s doubtful Bush is more than an occasional returner because of his importance to the offense. The cover units will be different as well as fixtures Osgood and Silva are gone and Ashlee Palmer looks to be starting at linebacker. Cory Greenwood figures to be the top dog here. Staying in proper lanes and actually finishing a tackle are areas of focus that got Crossman axed, and too late for this critic’s liking.
Forecast: Detroit underachieved in 2012 after their surprising run to the playoffs in 2011. A year after several inspired 4th quarter comebacks, the Lions pissed away several fourth quarter leads, often in spectacularly egregious fashion. There is premium talent at a lot of key positions, enough that simply eliminating the dumb penalties and sloppy fundamentals makes the Lions a legit playoff contender. It’s up to Jim Schwartz and the leadership on the team to draw the most from that talent and clean up the mental weakness that permeated 2012.
The schedule makers didn’t make it easy. Four of the first six games are on the road, and the home games are division rivals Minnesota and Chicago. I think the first three weeks of this season will strongly determine how the Lions play the rest of the year. The opener in Ford Field against Minnesota is tough but winnable, as are the subsequent road games to Arizona and Washington. If the Lions can exit those games at 2-1 or better they figure to build a lot of confidence. That is critical for a team with a perceived (right or wrong) hot seat coaching staff. There are lots of tough tests as the schedule progresses beyond the returning playoff Packers and Vikings within the NFC North. The Bengals, Ravens, Cowboys and Giants are the non-divisional visitors to Ford Field. The Lions have the explosive potential to win at least three of those, but just as easily they could drop all four. I think the team rudders out a little on the 4th quarter dramatics, and an increase in turnover production and sacks helps the defense fare better. But there are still enough holes and the schedule is difficult enough that the wins are hard to come by. Detroit finishes 6-10 in 2013.
